From basketball courts to the rodeo – how the state of Georgia could shape the US election
It’s been a mad few months, even by American political standards.
After Donald Trump’s criminal conviction in New York came Joe Biden’s blunders at that debate, then Trump’s brush with an assassin’s bullet and then that dramatic switch for the Democrats from Biden to Harris.
Events have jolted politics here and the Democratic Party’s remarkably smooth ‘switcheroo’ has upended the race for the White House.
Harris’s entry has turned the race into a neck-and-neck fight. In a few weeks, she has – polls suggest – won back voters who should have been in the bag but were put off by ageing Biden.
But beyond what promises to be a star-spangled crowning convention for Harris this week in Chicago, what’s the vibe in the states where it really matters?
I’m just back from Georgia. It is one of those ‘must-win’ swing states.
So starkly diverse and so close electorally, every vote really does matter in Georgia. Biden won here in 2020 by a margin of 0.23% – just 11,779 votes.
It’s been revealing in so many ways. Yes, Harris has shaken up the race, but the fundamentals of this election are unchanged.
The economy, the southern border, abortion and the character of the candidates remain the key factors. And it will come down to a narrow portion of the electorate – probably just over 10% of persuadables.
Here’s a snapshot of a journey through Georgia.
The barbecue joint
No visit to America’s south is complete without a good barbecue.
The Emerald’s Touch in the southwestern Georgian city of Columbus is new and it is the perfect product of the American dream.
Three generations of the same family run the place.
Jayden is taking the orders, his father is in the kitchen and his grandfather is the master griller out at the back. And Sandy, the matriarch, is the creator of the best mac-n-cheese I’ve had in a long time.
It is a business born in COVID under a Trump presidency as a food truck, it expanded under Biden’s term to the take-away it now is. In the next few months, they will expand again to become a full eat-in restaurant.
It’s the perfect reflection of what’s achievable in America. Trump’s low taxes and then Biden’s bottom-up economics have made it possible.
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Jayden is going to be voting for the first time in November and he is undecided – just the type of person both parties will need to target.
He represents a significant group of so-called “low information” voters. It’s an inelegant phrase, but essentially means he hasn’t yet tuned into it all. He doesn’t know what the two candidates represent.
Conversations with the customers are revealing.
Reflecting on the prospect of a female black president, young black mum Erica says: “It’s something that I would like to tell my daughter about… but I don’t let something that’s so close to me be the blindside of a vote just because it could be so historical.”
Vince Allan is a local pastor.
“To me, it’s a disturbing race,” he says. “We hear a lot of bashing and negative rhetoric instead of the candidates sticking to their policies… it’s pretty toxic.”
Then, away from the microphone, he whispered his candidate in my ear. I will not divulge, but it was a surprise.
The basketball court
This election will be all about targeting different demographics and young black men are key. On the basketball court, as the southern sun set, the perfect group agreed to talk politics.
All under 50 and all black or Latino, they are just the people Harris needs if she’s to win the state.
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‘Trump and who?’
“I’m voting for Trump,” one man says. “He’s our best choice.” Two others pile into the conversation, excited. “I’m Trump too… we’re with the Trump!”
“He’s got 34 felony counts! Hell, he’s more black than me!” another player says with a laugh.
This sort of self-deprecating humour speaks volumes for a certain portion of the electorate.
It’s not the first time I have heard it; the idea that it’s kind of cool that their street fighter has been put through the legal wringer and could still rise to the top.
But on this basketball court, it was clear too that beyond the machismo there are simple back-pocket motivations drawing people to Trump rather than Harris.
“Trump is real bro. He doesn’t care what you think about him. He’s going to speak his opinion,” another man says.
But like Jayden in the barbecue restaurant, here too I found many are just not tuned into it all, not yet, maybe they’ll never be, but their vote – if they vote – will count the same as any other.
Trump and Harris both need to swing them just enough to secure their vote.
The rodeo
In the far north of Georgia is the picturesque town of Blue Ridge.
It sits at the bottom end of the Blue Ridge mountain range which stretches hundreds of miles north through Tennessee and into Virginia. Much of this part of Appalachian America is deeply Trump country.
The annual rodeo is a wonderful snapshot of Americana and felt a million miles from the basketball court a hundred miles or so to the south.
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Young voters divided over Trump and Harris
It’s a country of such extraordinary diversity yet they must coalesce around one of two choices in November.
The first conversation ended any temptation I had to stereotype.
Three young friends, all first-time voters, all in their cowboy hats and all with a different view. One for Trump, one for Harris, and one undecided.
The Trump supporter was motivated mostly by his rough-and-ready character, the Harris supporter was concerned about the situation in Gaza, and the undecided person was worried about petrol prices.
For so many, this election will come down to single issues.
Abortion is another. A debate often framed as choice versus life. And in deeply religious Georgia the issue cuts both ways. A libertarian ‘mind your own business’ attitude intersects with fundamentalist religious beliefs.
For many, religion trumps choice. “I’m a devoted catholic,” one young woman told me. She confirmed that she would be voting Republican because of their abortion-restricting policies.
Another local then suggested, intriguingly, that a significant proportion of female voters may claim to support Trump but would, in the end, quietly vote for Kamala because of what she represents.
It is another dynamic to consider in this fascinating race.
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Remember how dramatically wrong the polls were in the past two presidential elections.
Trump has a tendency to poll lower than he actually performs.
How accurate are the polls on Harris? It’s hard to know because she is, for now, hard to define.
In one sense she represents something entirely new and fresh, certainly in terms of race and gender.
But she is also fully attached to the last four years of Biden.
That’s the challenge for team Harris: are they selling ‘continuity Kamala’ or does she represent change? Will she build on Biden’s legacy or is she distinct from it.
Different voters want different things. It feels like it’s a tricky balance in a campaign where all’s to play for.
US
Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem
Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.
The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.
While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.
Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble
All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.
The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP
By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.
Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Worst one-day losses since COVID
As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.
It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.
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The latest numbers on tariffs
‘Trust in President Trump’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.
“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”
Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”
He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.
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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’
The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.
He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.
He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”
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Tariffs about something more than economics: power
It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.
Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.
It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”
Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.
But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.
Power.
Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.
Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.
Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.
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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US
Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.
But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.
Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.
This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.
It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.
The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.
President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.
His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.
Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs
Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.
This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.
The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.
Read more:
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?
Trump hits island home only to penguins with 10% tariffs
Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP
Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”
Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?
Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.
In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.
When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.
And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.
America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.
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