‘You got “the man” with you’: Looking back on Steve McNair’s groundbreaking 1994 season at Alcorn State
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Harry Lyles Jr., ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN ALCORN STATE quarterback Steve McNair and his teammates would walk from their dorms to Jack Spinks Stadium for home games, they’d always hear students and fans tailgating. They’d smell barbecue. On that walk, fans would clamor to get close to their heroes in purple and gold. McNair and his teammates would take time to snap quick pictures or sign autographs for their supporters.
But on Oct. 22, 1994, when the Braves were set to take on Southern, with McNair poised to break Ty Detmer’s NCAA career total offense record, the walk out to the stadium was different.
“No pictures. No barbecue. No nothing,” said Donald Ray Ross, who played wide receiver at Alcorn with McNair.
That week, fans started their tailgating on Thursday because everybody wanted to make sure they had a good seat inside the stadium to watch McNair make history.
During McNair’s senior season, he threw for 5,377 yards and 47 touchdowns and rushed for 904 yards and nine more scores. He became the first player from a historically Black college or university to land an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony (he finished third) and eventually became the highest drafted HBCU offensive player ever when he was taken with the third pick in the 1995 NFL draft. He had a 13-year NFL career that saw him make three Pro Bowls and win co-MVP in 2003, and famously nearly won Super Bowl XXXIV with Tennessee. He died in 2009, at the age of 36, the victim of a homicide.
But McNair’s magical season of 1994 went beyond the numbers and comeback victories. He made tiny Lorman, Mississippi, a destination for NFL scouts and national media. He played in front of beyond-capacity crowds and landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
The hype was real, and it followed the team everywhere.
“You know how people talk about Caitlin Clark now?” said Mike Ellis, an offensive lineman and McNair’s teammate. “If we were to come to your venue, we was gonna sell your venue out because people wanted to see the show.”
Thirty years later, those who were there for the show can still hardly believe it.
“He was a prolific passer. He was a very, very good runner. He was strong, he was agile, and he was so smart,” McNair’s head coach Cardell Jones said. “I don’t care what the score was … I still figured that we had a chance to win [any] ballgame.”
STEVE MCNAIR WAS born in Mount Olive, Mississippi. He and his four brothers — Fred, Jason, Michael and Tim — were raised by their mother, Lucille McNair. Fred, the oldest, was the first to be given the “Air McNair” nickname. He was five years older than Steve and played quarterback at Alcorn State in the 1980s.
Steve McNair was a standout high school player, but most colleges recruited him as a defensive back. He set the Mississippi high school records for interceptions in a career with 30, had 15 picks in his senior season and was named to the Mississippi Sports Writers Association All-State football team as a defensive back. Miami, Notre Dame, Florida State and Florida all wanted McNair on their defenses, but he had other ideas.
“I could have handled defensive back in the SEC or Big Ten,” he told The Washington Post’s Michael Wilbon in 1992. “But Alcorn gave me the chance to play quarterback and I’m glad I made the choice.”
Because of his brother, McNair ended up being referred to as “Air II” in Lorman, but there quickly became no doubt that he was one of one. “The first scrimmage we put him in, he was just unreal,” Jones said. “I said there’s no way that we’re gonna be able to keep him on the bench.”
Alcorn opened the 1991 season against Grambling — which it hadn’t beaten since 1987 — in the Red River Classic in Shreveport, Louisiana. With his team down 12-7, Jones put McNair into the game in place of the starter, Reginald Martin. “The quarterback that we had during the time, it wasn’t that he was a bad quarterback,” Jones said. “Steve was just that good.”
Ross, who played all four years with McNair, said, “All Steve wanted was an opportunity. We knew it was going to happen. We didn’t know it was going to happen that soon, in that game, in that early part of the season.”
McNair came out hot, completing 7 of 11 passes for 111 yards in the first half. He finished the game having completed 11 of his 25 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-22 victory.
“I knew that the rest would be history from there,” Jones said.
“EVEN AS AN offensive lineman that blocked for him, I ain’t ever tell my coach this, but I’d catch myself watching,” said Ellis, who was a three-time All-SWAC selection during the McNair era.
Ellis wasn’t the only one who couldn’t help but gawk at McNair’s performances. Former Alcorn running back Harry Brown recalled a play during a game against Texas Southern. McNair had run one in for a score, and Brown got chewed out when he got back to the sideline.
“I didn’t realize until we watched film [that] I didn’t move. When the ball was snapped, in my mind I said, ‘Well, let me just see it.'” Brown said he had zoned out and never even left his stance. “Just standing there, watching him run to the left, back to the right and dive into the end zone. I threw my hands up. ‘Touchdown!’
“I didn’t realize that was my guy that I was supposed to block that was chasing him,” he said. “It was just like a football movie the whole time, my whole experience playing with him.”
Ross added, “It’s several times we got chewed out, but we lookin’ like, ‘Hey, we want to see it too!'”
McNair wasn’t just known as a great player on the field — he was also a kind teammate and a glue guy in the locker room. “He made everybody feel like they were somebody,” Brown said. “We didn’t have any problem that way as far as like, jealousy or anything like that. He broke down all those barriers.”
Ellis said, “Steve never separated himself from us. Most guys with his stature and stardom [think], ‘I’m that dude, I’m that guy.’ It’s David Ruffin and the Temptations. But he was Steve to us.”
With McNair leading the way, Alcorn finished the 1991 season 7-2-1 overall and 4-2-1 in the SWAC. In 1992, he led the team to a SWAC championship, with a perfect 7-0 record in the conference, before going on to lose in the first round of the Division I-AA playoffs to No. 2 Northeast Louisiana.
The Braves’ only loss in the SWAC in 1993 came to No. 16 Southern, who knocked off Alcorn 47-31 in front of a packed house at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. That year, the NFL created a draft advisory board to assist college football players who were deciding whether to continue playing collegiately or enter the NFL draft.
The board told McNair he would likely be a first- or second-round pick if he decided to leave Alcorn.
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Steve McNair dazzled at Alcorn State
Look back at Steve McNair’s historic 1994 season at Alcorn State.
LUCILLE MCNAIR AND JONES both had conversations with McNair about his future, but it was his mother’s advice that got him to return for one last season. “I told him to please himself and not worry about pleasing anybody else,” she told the Clarion-Ledger in 1994. “I told him not to worry about pleasing his brothers, his coaches, his friends or anybody else, including me.
“We haven’t had that much all these years, but we can surely wait another year,” she continued. “I told him that God has blessed us all these years and He’ll bless us one more.”
Lucille wasn’t wrong about that. According to Jones, scouts were going well out of their way to see McNair every day in 1994. “You don’t just happen to drive by to go to Alcorn,” Jones said. “You have to really be going there for a reason, it was just that far out of the way.”
The Braves’ opener against Grambling in 1994 was both a testament to why coaches were going so far — 70 miles southwest of Jackson and 110 miles north of Baton Rouge — out of their way to see No. 9, and a sign of what was to come that season.
Alcorn scored to open the game, and Grambling quickly followed. With the score tied 35-35 at the half, McNair, who had passed for 268 yards already, stood up and told the team, “We’re gonna win this one. I’m going to go; y’all just come with me.”
Down 62-56, Alcorn got the ball on its 37-yard line with 1:39 left. McNair drove his team down to Grambling’s 11-yard line in five plays. With 10 seconds left, McNair hit Percy Singleton in the hands with a pass that would have given McNair a career sweep of Grambling. But Singleton dropped it, and McNair floated the next pass out of the end zone, which ended the game.
McNair finished 27-of-52 for 534 yards and five touchdowns, adding 99 yards on the ground to give him a total of 633 yards, 10 shy of the Division I-AA record.
“He’s a great athlete,” legendary Grambling coach Eddie Robinson said after the game. “It’s a bittersweet win for us.”
After blowout wins at Chattanooga (where McNair ended up getting the total yards record with 647) and Alabama State, Robinson said McNair “not only is the best quarterback but the best player in the country.”
McNair began to get that kind of recognition from others, too. His spotlight grew nationally, and he was put on the cover of Sports Illustrated, with the cover line: “Hand Him the Heisman.”
Charles Edmond, who has been Alcorn’s radio play-by-play announcer since McNair’s freshman season in 1991, said, “When the Heisman hype really took off, it seemed like every day on campus, you had ESPN one day you had ABC, CBS, Sports Illustrated, The Washington Post, The New York Times. It seemed like every week, you had two or three media types on campus to see what this hype was about and follow him.”
“For us on campus, that was a special time,” said Emanuel Barnes, the public address announcer for Alcorn. “That was just a different year. You couldn’t turn around on campus, no matter what you did, because there were so many people there.”
Ellis recalled McNair’s dorm being on the third floor and said, “He never turned anybody away for an autograph. You didn’t know who was going to show up. People were literally pulling up on campus parking their cars and waiting in line on the staircase for him to sign an autograph.”
That week, the Braves filled up Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas, as they took on Sam Houston State in a regionally televised game on ABC. Alcorn lost that game 48-23, and McNair left the game early with a Grade 1 shoulder separation.
After the game, McNair needed treatment on his shoulder and was going to go to a local hospital in Huntsville. Edmond recalled Alcorn thinking twice about that decision.
“Well, after discussion, they decided they wanted to get him back to Mississippi to get him to Vicksburg to get him to a hospital close to campus to get him treated,” he said. “They didn’t want Steve getting treated in enemy territory.”
So McNair was put in the back of the highway patrol car driven by one of the team’s escorts, and Edmond trailed them in an Aerostar van that he typically rode in with other Alcorn staff. “He had his lights on, and I’m trailing behind him doing 100 miles an hour, trying to get back to Mississippi,” Edmond said.
McNair would get things on track in the few weeks after that, with wins over Mississippi Valley State (where he became the Division I-AA total offense leader) and Texas Southern and then a 69-14 trouncing of Prairie View A&M in which McNair had eight total touchdowns.
The most important game of the season was on Oct. 22, when Alcorn welcomed Southern and its top-ranked defense to Lorman. McNair was 264 yards from passing former BYU quarterback Ty Detmer (14,665 yards) to become the NCAA career leader in total offense, and Southern had been Alcorn’s most consistent challenger in the Air II Era.
It created a scene at Jack Spinks Stadium that hadn’t been seen before, with fans even flooding the sidelines trying to get a look at McNair as he made history. “Everyone wanted to witness him breaking that record,” Ross said.
“Everyone” was an estimated crowd of 26,500 in a stadium that holds 21,000. And in the second quarter, McNair broke the record with the improvisational style he had used to lead the Braves all season. With the ball on its 40-yard line, Alcorn was facing a third-and-21 with 1:26 left in the second quarter. McNair lined up in the shotgun with three wide to his left and one to the right. On a designed pass play, McNair rolled to his right, evaded a rusher and went 22 yards to get the first down and break Detmer’s record.
But there was still a game to be won. Trailing 37-34, Alcorn faced a second-and-40 at its 25-yard line with 40 seconds left. McNair hit Marcus Hinton with a 57-yard deep ball to set up his game-winning 1-yard touchdown run with 10 seconds left. It was the quintessential McNair performance: He broke another record, and he led another fourth-quarter comeback. He finished the game with 649 total yards.
“If there’s a better player in this country, I don’t know where he is,” Jones said after the game.
If the spectacle of the Southern game didn’t have everyone convinced McNair had taken the team to unimaginable heights, when they arrived in Birmingham for their next game against Samford, Mike Ellis said, there was a sure sign they had made it.
“I ain’t even trying to be crazy, but it was so many white folks in the lobby waiting on us!” Ellis said with a laugh. “We walked in that lobby like, ‘What do they want?’ And as soon as they saw Steve, they brought out their cameras, they had their autographs, they had their shirts and stuff ready for him to sign.
“Our offensive line coach said, ‘Y’all know we famous. We in Birmingham? Y’all know we famous.'”
After leading his team to a comeback tie at Samford (Alcorn was down 42-13 with 7:00 left in the third quarter) and a comeback victory over No. 6 Troy State, the icing on the 1994 regular season was McNair leading Alcorn to a fourth consecutive victory over rival Jackson State.
Brown said, “At that particular time — I know this is going to make some people mad — but at that time, playing with Steve, we didn’t seem to even worry about Jackson State.
“It’s different when you go in there and you know you got ‘the man’ with you.”
McNair finished the game 29-of-54 with 533 yards and five touchdowns in a 52-34 win.
Alcorn played in the FCS playoffs at the end of the season, facing No. 1 Youngstown State led by coach Jim Tressel. Alcorn lost 63-20, and yet, McNair’s performance still seemed like a miracle.
“He was operating at about 60% capacity, but he was still effective,” Jones said.
McNair’s left hamstring — which he had injured in the first half of the Jackson State game — wouldn’t allow him to run, so he had to throw the ball more than usual into a defense that knew what was coming. Still, McNair finished the game 52-of-82 for 514 yards and three touchdowns, with three interceptions. His 52 completions was an FCS playoff record, and he fell short of the yardage record by just 4 yards.
“HAND HIM THE Heisman” was more than just a line on a Sports Illustrated cover. It became the hook for a rap promoting McNair’s Heisman candidacy.
A pair of Alcorn seniors, Lamumba Moses and John Jackson, were driving back to school from Port Gibson, Mississippi, a few weeks before the Jackson State game and were freestyling in the car trying to come up with a song about McNair. By the time they got back to Lorman, they had a full set of lyrics written down. Once in Lorman, they raised $150 from Alcorn students, faculty and alumni to get studio time, then recorded the anthem. It was set to McNair’s highlights and served as McNair’s unofficial campaign video.
It wasn’t enough to put McNair over the top, however, as Colorado running back Rashaan Salaam, who had rushed for more than 2,000 yards, took home the trophy. The 1995 No. 1 NFL draft pick, Penn State running back Ki-Jana Carter, finished second. McNair was third, with 111 first-place votes.
Even though McNair didn’t come away with the Heisman, his decision to come back to Alcorn for the 1994 season lifted not just himself but everyone he played with. “I’m going to hate leaving here,” he told Thomas George of The New York Times before the start of the 1994 season. “But I know I have to in order to experience what is in store for me. I want to make the best of it.
“I had a high school coach tell me something a long time ago that I believe: ‘It’s not where you come from or where you go — it’s what you do when you get there.'”
Nothing that happened at the Heisman ceremony was going to change the legacy that Steve McNair built at Alcorn. In the four years before arrival, the Braves were 21-17 overall and 16-11 in the SWAC. In the McNair era, Alcorn went 30-11-2 overall and 23-4-1 in the conference.
“For people that never saw him play,” Ellis said, “Just understand that at the time, it was something different.”
Sports
Biggest concern, what’s left to play for and more: Post-trade-deadline guide for all 30 MLB teams
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Bradford Doolittle
For all the work we do in setting up and covering the MLB trade deadline, the transaction-related activity in some years is a little underwhelming. That was not the case in 2025.
According to my tracking mechanisms, the wild 2025 deadline featured 92 veteran trade candidates on new teams and, likewise, 92 prospects headed to new organizations, seeking their big league opportunity. After all that, we turn our attention to reassessing the new baseball landscape.
This is what we do with every edition of Stock Watch, but there is never as much mystery in the outcomes as there is after a heavy period of roster movement, which yields my two favorite Stock Watch editions: after the in-season trade deadline (now) and during the hot stove season, after the offseason’s heaviest waves of transactions are completed.
As we did last year at this time, we will hone in on each team’s stretch run. This looks different for contenders than those looking to the future, but even for the noncontenders, it’s about what is left to accomplish on the field in 2025 — and how those aims might be achieved.
Jump to a tier:
Top-tier contenders | Second-tier contenders | Teams just hanging on
Teams looking ahead | The Colorado Rockies
Top-tier contenders
Teams with a 90% or better shot at the playoffs
Win average: 95.9 (Last month: 87.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 61.7%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 2.1%)
Lingering concern: Middle-of-the-order power
The Brewers have soared to the top spot of Stock Watch with startling velocity. You might view Milwaukee’s deadline approach as a bit passive, but when you’ve gotten so far by finding solutions within your organization, why change? The Brewers don’t have many obvious needs. Even the shortcoming noted above was listed only because no roster is perfect. But though Milwaukee ranks 15th in isolated power for the season, its offense has been baseball’s hottest, joining a run prevention crew that was already stellar.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 96.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 13.6% (Last: 12.6%)
Lingering concern: Frontline pitching
This seems like a big-ticket concern, and it is. Chicago’s rotation and bullpen have been more passable than good this season, at least when the offense has been rolling up big numbers. The club’s passive deadline approach didn’t upgrade that outlook. What the staff needed was some dynamism, whether one of the top closers who moved or a top-of-the-rotation starter. Given Kyle Tucker‘s walk-year contract status, a more all-in mindset was justified.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 101.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 99.7%)
Champions: 15.4% (Last: 24.0%)
Lingering concern: Pitching health
What else could it be? All those hurlers who seemed to comprise a super team type of depth chart in the offseason still exist. But the Dodgers’ dizzying turnstile of pitchers going on and off the injured list has never let up. Given what happens to pitchers once they join the Dodgers, maybe L.A. was doing the rest of the majors a small favor by mostly standing pat at the deadline. With the Padres positioned to push the Dodgers to the finish in the National League West, the stretch run can’t just be about rehabbing pitchers for October, either.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 97.9, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 99.8%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 14.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive consistency
When it comes to the overall pecking order, Detroit has come back to the pack. The Tigers focused their deadline work on the pitching staff, to mixed results. Yet, the Tigers’ offensive regression has been the primary culprit for their recent dip. Detroit is deep in prospects but has a right-now opportunity that doesn’t seem like it has been maximized. If Detroit returns to its early-season offensive exploits, though, it won’t matter.
Win average: 92.7 (Last: 93.5, 5th)
In the playoffs: 96.8% (Last: 93.8%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 7.6%)
Lingering concern: What about Andrew Painter?
After the Phillies’ deadline pickups of Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, this is their first-world dilemma. They don’t need Painter, the talented righty who has been in the minors all season after returning from injury. His recent outings have been solid, but he’s still not putting up his pre-injury strikeout numbers. He’s a secret weapon at this point. Painter might not appear in the regular season but make the postseason roster anyway.
Win average: 90.7 (Last: 86.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 92.9% (Last: 72.7%)
Champions: 5.3% (Last: 1.8%)
Lingering concern: Anthony Santander
The Jays didn’t acquire Duran, but they made a couple of key bullpen pickups in Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland. We’ll see if that suffices. The other big need was a middle-of-the-order bat, a void Toronto thought it filled when it signed Santander. Santander has been out since the end of May and contributed little before that. The Blue Jays need Santander’s recovery to pick up and for him to be the thumper they signed.
Second-tier contenders
Teams with playoff odds between 40% and 89%
Win average: 90.2 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 89.0% (Last: 41.3%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 1.1%)
Lingering concern: History
Sure, a future All-Star Game might be half-populated with one-time San Diego prospects, but for now, A.J. Preller’s machinations have eliminated any glaring holes on his roster. The depth after the active-26 group isn’t great, so health is crucial. But as constructed, the Padres are as well-situated for the postseason as anyone. They, along with Seattle and Milwaukee, will try to snap a zero-for-eternity title drought. Any of the three could do it.
Win average: 90.1 (Last: 89.4, 7th)
In the playoffs: 89.4% (Last: 75.7%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 3.2%)
Lingering concern: Juan Soto
The Mets didn’t address their rotation at the deadline, but added enough to the relief staff that it’s not hard to lay out an October blueprint for a bullpen-heavy pitching staff. As for Soto, it’s perhaps not fair to call him a concern. This hasn’t been his best season, but it has been a good season, at least by the standards of most players. But Soto at his .300/.400/.600 best can carry a team, and as the Mets try to emerge from the crowded field of contenders, the time is coming for him to do it.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 94.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 88.0% (Last: 98.5%)
Champions: 6.1% (Last: 8.9%)
Lingering concern: How much Yordan Alvarez will the Astros get?
It has been a lost season for Alvarez, who has been out since early May because of a hand injury. Reportedly, Alvarez has been ramping up his activity and should return at some point. But can he be more than a marginal upgrade? Despite the Astros’ deadline pickups, their once-mighty offense won’t be an October threat — if Houston gets that far — unless Alvarez is ready to rake. As the Astros have come back to the pack in the American League West, their offense has been the coldest in baseball. Alvarez is their best hope of getting back to at least average.
Win average: 88.9 (Last: 79.8, 19th)
In the playoffs: 87.6% (Last: 17.8%)
Champions: 5.5% (Last: 0.3%)
Lingering concern: Starting rotation
This team makes a lot more sense if you plug a true No. 2 (or a co-No. 1) in the rotation next to Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are playing so well it seems greedy to quibble, but what will this look like in the playoffs? Some teams tread water with the rotation and ride the bullpen in October. Boston’s bullpen has been solid, but it seems like the Red Sox will need more balance. Boston needs big finishes from every starter not named Crochet. And Crochet, too.
Win average: 88.8 (Last: 92.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 87.2% (Last: 95.8%)
Champions: 8.0% (Last: 12.8%)
Lingering concern: Run prevention
With all of their bullpen pickups, the Yankees have set themselves up for the postseason, but they’ve got to get there first. New York still leads the AL in run prevention, but it has been two months since the Yankees have played like a playoff team. The rotation and bullpen have struggled, but so too has the mistake-prone defense. New York’s power-based offense is dangerous, especially when Aaron Judge is healthy, but the Yankees aren’t going to bludgeon their way back to the World Series.
Win average: 86.8 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 70.4% (Last: 66.5%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 2.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive regression
Getting Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez back in the same lineup is a coup, and there’s no doubt the Mariners’ offensive profile has improved. But it’s highly unlikely that what we’ll see from Raleigh and Suarez over the rest of the season will match what they’ve done to this point. It’s not saying they’ll collapse but to underscore how their output has been off the charts. Seattle will need plenty of production in addition to that duo, and the Mariners are well-positioned to get it.
Win average: 84.1 (Last: 81.1, 17th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 27.3%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.5%)
Lingering concern: Bullpen
The Rangers’ offense remains confounding, but lately it has been so consistently productive that it has fueled Texas’ resurgence in the AL West race. The rotation remains the standout unit, especially with the addition of Merrill Kelly. Still, though newcomers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton help, you can’t help but look at the prospects it took to acquire Kelly and wonder how much that offer could have been tweaked for Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran.
Teams just hanging on
Teams on the “miracles do happen” tier
Win average: 82.3 (Last: 82.5, 15th)
In the playoffs: 12.3% (Last: 19.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
Hope for a run: Powerhouse rotation
This was going to be the case even without the addition of Zack Littell during what was an odd deadline for the Reds, who reinforced areas of strength without addressing areas of greatest need. But with Hunter Greene nearing his return, if he, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo all finish strong, the Reds will be a force down the stretch.
Win average: 81.8 (Last: 84.4, 14th)
In the playoffs: 9.4% (Last: 35.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 1.2%)
Hope for a run: Exploding stars
The Giants’ subtraction at the deadline wasn’t quite a white flag, but it was a recognition that the once-promising season had petered out. Still, with the Giants off the radar, you can see that each unit features at least one All-Star-level player: Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and dynamic new closer Randy Rodriguez. The roster is thinner, but maybe the Giants have another run in them.
Win average: 80.9 (Last: 76.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 12.5% (Last: 5.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Belief
Some of the many teams in baseball’s wide midsection looked at their mediocrity as an excuse to punt. The Royals looked at it as an opportunity to have some fun. Kansas City was 39-46 at the end of June. Now, the Royals, in Boston facing one of the teams they are chasing in the wild-card race, are one of the AL’s hottest teams. Injuries and underperformance have hampered Kansas City for most of the season, but the front office believed in the group enough to address the holes in a meaningful way. It’s not fancy. It’s just trying.
Win average: 80.3 (Last: 88.2, 8th)
In the playoffs: 10.2% (Last: 82.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 4.5%)
Hope for a run: It can’t get worse?
The Rays are really hard to pin down. They exit the deadline as baseball’s coldest team. They aren’t out of the race in terms of record or games behind, but more because of trajectory. That downward trend was neither helped nor harmed by a deadline strategy that was an odd mix of adding and subtracting. Even the addition of the dynamic Jax is a mixed bag, given it took Taj Bradley to get him.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 85.5, 13th)
In the playoffs: 2.6% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 1.0%)
Hope for a run: There’s always another next year
The Cardinals’ slide, combined with their deadline-related offloading, has them on more of a path to challenge the Pirates for last than the Reds for third. And wasn’t that the design all along? It’s too bad St. Louis played well early this season, or it might have gone into full reset mode earlier, though all of those no-trade clauses would have made it difficult. This is a proud franchise, but this season has been a head-scratcher. If, from the end of last season, the aim of the organization was to maximize its chances of winning in 2025, the Cardinals could have mounted a sustained run. And it’s hard to see what would have been lost in the effort.
Win average: 79.3 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 6.5% (Last: 8.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Jose Ramirez
The Guardians underwent a soft unload at the deadline, trading franchise stalwart Shane Bieber to Toronto. Same old, same old for this franchise. The good part of that stick-to-the-plan organizational cornerstone is that it also encompasses keeping the great Ramirez, who shows zero signs of decline in his 13th season. He might be even better than ever, and if Ramirez were to finish on a massive heater and lead the Guardians into the playoffs on a miracle run, Aaron Judge’s injury problems and Cal Raleigh’s possible regression open the door for Ramirez to win his first MVP.
Teams looking ahead to 2026 and beyond
Playing out the string and hoping for better luck next time
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 69.7, 26th)
In the playoffs: 1.6% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Dig that pitching
The Marlins are really fun to watch, and have been for some time. After a weekend spent throttling the Yankees, it seems like others are taking notice. A true playoff push would involve a really unlikely acceleration of this surge, mostly because none of the current six playoff teams in the NL seems likely to collapse. That doesn’t mean the stifling Marlins rotation can’t hit the hot stove season with momentum, and focus the front office’s offseason plan on adding offense. Also note: The playoff-bound Tigers were in this tier in last season’s edition of this Stock Watch. You never know.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 82.4, 16th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.5%)
Remaining objective: See what’s what with Jordan Lawlar
It has been a disappointing season for Arizona. After lofty preseason expectations, injuries poked a hole in the Diamondbacks’ contention bubble, and an aggressive offloading deadline sucked out the rest of the air. Not that GM Mike Hazen did the wrong thing; it’s just a very different place than we thought Arizona was headed. The departure of Suarez is tough, but at least Arizona can take an extended look at Lawlar at the hot corner — if he can get healthy, which isn’t a given. It has been that kind of season.
Win average: 76.1 (Last: 79.7, 20th)
In the playoffs: 1.3% (Last: 18.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Remaining objective: Learn everybody’s name
Some saw the Twins’ “everything must go” deadline approach as malpractice, probably more driven by money than winning. Others saw it as smart and a rapid accumulation of young prospect talent. The two conclusions aren’t mutually exclusive. It depends on how quickly the Twins can reconstruct their bullpen and how many of the newbies pan out.
Win average: 76.0 (Last: 76.3, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 1.1% (Last: 6.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: To keep trying
The Angels’ deadline behavior suggests they see themselves in the tier above this. The numbers don’t agree that that is likely, but, what is lost by the attempt? The Angels have exceeded tepid expectations for the most part. You wonder, given the need for an unusual leap from here, what sector of the Angels’ roster might be situated to fuel such a rise.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 80.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 11.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.4%)
Remaining objective: Get to the offseason
Atlanta’s season has been an exercise in waiting for a Braves surge that never happened. Underperformance put Atlanta in a hole and a worsening injury picture sealed its fate. Some hard questions will need to be answered in the offseason. You can blame injuries, but this season, after last season, constitutes an ugly trend.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 71.1, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Play the kids
The names you want to see as much as possible from here: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Samuel Basallo … just turn them loose and see what it looks like. That’s what this deadline was all about, wasn’t it?
Win average: 69.9 (Last: 71.8, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Help Paul Skenes to a Cy Young
Give Pirates fans something to hang their horizontal-striped hats on. Give Skenes some support, allow him to finish strong and see if he can beat the NL’s other leading hopefuls despite a lack of high-stakes action. The Pirates haven’t had a Cy Young Award-winner since Doug Drabek … in 1990.
Win average: 69.5 (Last: 65.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Finish strong
Sure, this sounds like a generic, lame goal for the rest of the season. But the Athletics have been solid and fun to watch for long stretches of the season. A few weeks of historically awful pitching killed hopes of real competitiveness, but the A’s have responded nicely in the weeks since that slump. The deadline pickup of Leo De Vries only sharpens the anticipation of what’s to come. Keep the good tidings coming headed into the offseason.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 68.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Develop some kind of foothold
The Nationals have me confounded. They have some clear reasons to be excited, led by James Wood. But they’ve been trying to piece together a rebuild for a long time and show no signs of coming out of it. Rather than showing positive strides like the team after them in this Stock Watch, the Nationals have trended ice cold on both sides of the ball as we’ve gotten deeper into the season. They fired their brain trust, which might have been necessary, but it only intensified the problem of figuring out what this team is or where it’s headed.
Win average: 62.1 (Last: 56.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Keep it going
The White Sox might lose 100 games again, but they might not. Seems like damning with faint praise, but given where Chicago was earlier this season, much less a year ago, it seems like a minor miracle. The exciting part is that the younger the White Sox lineup has gotten, the better it has played. Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Chase Meidroth have played key roles, and the White Sox are getting good results from other teams’ castoffs. The newest project is deadline pickup Curtis Mead, who generated so much excitement for the Rays in spring training.
The Colorado Rockies
The horror!
Win average: 44.3 (Last: 41.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
When will it end? Could be sooner than you think
First, it’s not a given that a team gets its own class in this Stock Watch edition. You’ve really got to set yourself apart. The White Sox did it last season, and the Rockies are doing it now. Colorado has picked up the pace, especially on offense, so it is no longer a certainty that the Rockies will dip below Chicago’s record-setting 2024 thud. And the one-year vibe shift in Chicago would be a source of encouragement as well. At the same time … the White Sox had a plan.
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Bill Connelly
According to ESPN BET, there are currently 21 teams with at least +10,000 odds (equivalent to about a 1% chance) of winning the national title in 2025. Thirteen of them are starting new quarterbacks, and seven of those are extremely inexperienced. Three other contenders are starting sophomores who, while experienced compared to others, are still sophomores.
Translation: The quarterback position, already the most important in any team sport, is going to be more important than ever this fall. Whichever of the 21 contenders has a particularly good one will have a massive opportunity on their hands.
Some of these new starters will shine — three of the past seven Heisman winners have been first-year starters, after all. But some will inevitably fall flat or, at least, start slowly. Some have given us tantalizing tastes of potential in small samples. Others will be taking their first meaningful snaps since high school. Some inherit offenses with known stars. Others will be navigating through life with new lines in front of them or new skill corps around them (or, in the case of the No. 1 guy on the list below, both).
It’s time for my annual most important players list. Below are 40 players who could define the season with either moments or long spells of greatness. Some play for contenders, while others play for the teams that might prevent contenders from reaching their goals. All of them will have a chance to make their mark on 2025. As I write in this piece every year, there are birds in hand, and there are unfinished products. This list is typically about the latter. It’s always quarterback-heavy because, well, quarterbacks are always important. But this year, we’re on quarterback overload.
New starting quarterbacks for likely contenders
1. Arch Manning, Texas: I usually count down to No. 1 in this piece in an attempt to build some sort of suspense, but there’s no point in making you wade through 39 other names first when you know who’s going to be No. 1. The top quarterback prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, Manning attempted 108 dropbacks while backing up or filling in for Quinn Ewers the past two seasons. And now he enters 2025 as the Heisman betting favorite (+600), leading a team that is the national title co-favorite (+550) and the likely preseason No. 1 team.
For two years, we’ve looked at 2025 as The Year Of Arch, and now we get to find out if he’s up for the challenge. If he is, then Texas could remain atop the rankings all season and, after two straight College Football Playoff semifinal defeats, make it a couple of wins further. But if he’s merely very good, the Longhorns’ rebuilt offensive and defensive lines and unproven receiving corps could become major obstacles. No pressure, dude.
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: The small-town Georgia product and former blue-chipper found himself in an impossible situation, making his first career start in the 2024 CFP quarterfinals last season against Notre Dame. He made some fabulous throws, suffered a devastating sack-and-strip fumble and couldn’t quite get the job done. Now he has gotten an entire offseason to prepare for start No. 2 and beyond. Georgia has the highest floor in the sport, but the Dawgs’ ceiling will be defined by Stockton and a receiving corps that didn’t do nearly enough for its QBs last season.
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama: The Bama defense gave up only 14.4 points per game in its final seven contests, but the Tide went just 4-3 in that span because the offense disappeared, reappeared, then vanished for good. With Ryan Grubb rejoining Kalen DeBoer as offensive coordinator and receiver Ryan Williams returning, it seems this is a great situation for a new QB. Can Simpson, a longtime backup, seize his opportunity and lead Bama through tricky early road trips to Florida State and Georgia? Or will he be supplanted by a youngster by midseason?
4. CJ Carr, Notre Dame: Notre Dame made the national title game last season despite an offense focused mainly on short passes and lots of third-down QB keepers. Riley Leonard was really good at those things, but Carr, a top-40 prospect in 2024, brings quite the old-school, pro-style skill set to the table. Can he boost the Irish’s upside enough to maybe actually win the national title game (while providing enough of a floor to get them back there)?
5. Dante Moore, Oregon: Moore took on too much too soon as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, but after a year as Dillon Gabriel’s understudy, he’ll try to guide a massively overhauled Oregon offense well enough to keep the Ducks in the hunt for a second Big Ten title in two tries. I’m not sure about his upside, but a good run game and good decision-making from Moore will take Oregon a long way down the road.
6. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: He has completed five career passes, all in fourth-quarter garbage time, and now he likely takes the reins for the defending national champ and a team that has ranked worse than seventh in offensive SP+ just once in eight years. There’s massive pressure that comes with that, and at some point Sayin will have to make some big third-down passes. But he’ll be throwing to the best receiver duo in the sport (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate). That will help.
Quarterbacks with a potential game-changing leap in them
7. Drew Allar, Penn State (No. 2 in 2023, No. 5 in 2024): Two years ago, this category featured the quarterbacks who would go on to win the national title (J.J. McCarthy), win the Heisman (Jayden Daniels) and lead a team to an unbeaten start before a devastating late-season injury (Jordan Travis). Last year it featured the guy who would make a game-changing leap all the way to the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft (Cam Ward). This category is a good place to find guys who will define the season.
It’s also a good place to find Drew Allar. He’s in here for the second straight season. In his first season with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, he took a clear step forward, from 2,631 passing yards to 3,327 and, more importantly, from 27th to 10th in Total QBR. His devastating pick late in PSU’s semifinal loss to Notre Dame has festered all offseason, but he’s clearly very good, and if he improves just a little bit more, his Nittany Lions might be just about bulletproof.
8. Cade Klubnik, Clemson: In six career games against top-10 opponents, Allar has completed 49% of his passes, averaged just 4.9 yards per dropback and 156.5 yards per game, produced a horribly mediocre 54.9 Total QBR and gone just 1-5. Klubnik hasn’t exactly thrived against that level of competition, but following his performance against Texas in last season’s CFP first round — 336 yards, 3 touchdowns and an 81.5 Total QBR — his hype has increased. He’s the No. 2 Heisman betting favorite (+800), and Clemson should start the season with its highest preseason poll ranking in at least three years. I’ve spent much of the offseason as a Clemson-as-contender skeptic, but if Klubnik torches LSU in Week 1, the table is set for a huge run.
9. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (No. 7 in 2024): Klubnik vs. Nussmeier in Week 1 will be quite the market shifter when it comes to Heisman odds, and this game will give two teams with loads of upside and lots of question marks a chance to make a huge statement. LSU’s defense will probably determine its contention fate, but if Nussmeier, the No. 3 Heisman betting favorite (+900), takes a Jayden Daniels- or Joe Burrow-esque leap in his second year as a starter, the defense won’t have to make all that many stops.
10. Carson Beck, Miami: In two years as Georgia’s starter, Beck went 5-2 against top-10 opponents and produced a Total QBR over 92 on three occasions. Granted, he threw three picks twice as well (both times in 2024), but Georgia averaged a mammoth 36.6 points per game in those seven contests. He’s the most proven big-game player in the sport this season. But he also had a confusing run of poor play last season — 12 interceptions and 13 sacks in a six-game span — that damaged (or at least confused) perceptions. His final act will determine his legacy to a degree. Can he, with help from a theoretically improved defense, take Miami to its first CFP?
Young/inexperienced/new QBs with both spoiler and contender potential
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
13. John Mateer, Oklahoma
14. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
15. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
It was a jarring and repetitive theme in my SEC preview: “If [insert quarterback here] is awesome, [insert mid-level contender here] becomes a serious contender for a CFP bid.”
Granted, the paths for Florida and (especially) Oklahoma are trickier, and Lagway needs to be healthy before he can really threaten to upend this season. But any of these five QBs could lead playoff runs. Meanwhile, these five teams will play a combined 15 games against projected top-10 teams, per SP+, and 35 games against top-25 teams. If they don’t end up in the CFP hunt, they’ll have huge roles in determining who does.
These aren’t just five interesting quarterbacks — all five aspire to make plays, and that comes with risk.
• The national average for yards per completion last season was 12.1. All five of these QBs averaged at least 12.7, and Mateer (14.0 at Washington State), Simmons (14.8 in the smallest sample of the bunch) and Lagway (16.7) averaged far more.
• The national average for scramble rate (scrambles per dropback) was 6.6%. Lagway was at 7.2%, with Mateer at 11.1%, Sellers at 12.4% and Reed at 16.7%.
• The national average for air yards per pass was 8.6 yards downfield. Reed was at 9.3, Mateer 9.7, Lagway 10.6 and Simmons 11.3.
• Seeking out big plays comes with a sack risk. The national average for sacks per pressure was 17.8%. (Higher is worse in this case.) Simmons was at 25%, Sellers 25.6%, Mateer 28.4%.
• The national average for designed run rate (designed runs per snap) was 10.6%. Sellers was at 18.5%, Mateer 18.9%.
For that matter, Arch Manning had higher-than-normal numbers in terms of yards per completion, air yards, sacks per pressure and designed runs. These guys make huge plays and take hits. That will work out great for some and, perhaps, poorly for others. I can’t wait to see how this plays out.
Others: Joey Aguilar or Jake Merklinger, Tennessee; Beau Pribula or Sam Horn, Missouri; Bryce Underwood, Michigan
Potential stars in need of a breakthrough
16. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. or T.J. Moore, Clemson: Wesco had three 100-yard games and averaged 17.3 yards per catch as a freshman. Moore ended his freshman season by torching Texas for 116 yards in the CFP. Williams has almost 2,000 career receiving yards. They comprise the most impressive receiving corps Clemson has had in quite some time, but even with them, Cade Klubnik averaged only 11.8 yards per completion last season. The last eight national title quarterbacks averaged at least 13.6. (The last one who didn’t? Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at 11.8.) It’s really hard to nibble your way to the national championship, and Klubnik’s receivers need to come up big if the Tigers are going to deliver on what probably will be a very lofty preseason ranking.
17. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State: OK, by most definitions, Dennis-Sutton is already a star. He made 15 tackles for loss with 8.5 sacks and 13 run stops last season. Few did better, but former teammate Abdul Carter was one of them. The new New York Giant was otherworldly last season, and his departure means 23.5 TFLs and 12 sacks need replacing. Can Dennis-Sutton raise his game just a bit more and make sure new coordinator Jim Knowles has elite disruption up front?
18. Harold Perkins Jr., LSU: Over the last seven games of his freshman season, Perkins hit a level we almost never see, recording 50 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 8 run stops, 2 forced fumbles and 2 pass breakups. In basically half a season. Just think of what he might be capable of when he knows what he’s doing. We’re still waiting to see what he’s capable of. He was good as a sophomore, then tore his ACL four games into the 2024 season. Now comes a golden opportunity. Perkins and Whit Weeks are both full strength, and Brian Kelly basically went out and grabbed every defensive end in the portal. It sure feels as if coordinator Blake Baker has the disruptors he needs. Can Perkins break through and lead the first genuinely awesome LSU defense since 2019?
Others: Dillon Bell (No. 12 in 2024) or Colbie Young, Georgia
Most important (non-QB) transfers
19. Makhi Hughes, Oregon: Hughes was just about the most proven and known quantity in the transfer portal. Over 28 games at Tulane, he touched the ball 553 times (523 rushes, 30 catches) and gained 3,022 yards with 24 touchdowns. He’s a fantastic yards-after-contact guy and has shown he can both grind out yards between the tackles and hit the afterburners when he finds space. If he can become the same type of go-to guy in the Big Ten, it will take immense pressure off Dante Moore and the rest of a completely revamped Oregon offense.
20. Zachariah Branch, Georgia: When Gunner Stockton was desperately trying to make plays against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, his supporting cast just didn’t support him enough. All season, in fact, it was clear offensive coordinator Mike Bobo couldn’t figure out around whom to build the offense. The returning receiving corps has decent experience, but Branch was a tantalizing but frustrating figure at USC. A former top-10 prospect, he’s a dynamic return man, but he managed only 823 total receiving yards at 10.6 per catch in two seasons. Can he give Stockton both a reliable set of hands and the occasional chunk play?
21. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon: The Oregon offense basically returns 1.5 starters. The defense is in slightly better shape — it returns three. But they’re all linebackers. The secondary lost all eight players who topped 80 snaps last season and will lean heavily on Thieneman and a pair of cornerback transfers to hold up. The good news? Thieneman is awesome. He was a third-team All-American as a freshman in 2023 and a steady playmaker (and play-preventer) for a dreadful Purdue defense in 2024. If he can lead a reliable secondary in the back, Oregon should have enough proven entities and former star recruits to survive up front.
Others: Nic Anderson, LSU; Malachi Fields and/or Will Pauling, Notre Dame; Will Heldt, Clemson; Elo Modozie, Georgia; Isaiah World and/or Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon
Grizzled old spoiler quarterbacks
22. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: As far as final acts go, beating Alabama and leading Vandy to its first bowl win in 11 years would have been pretty spectacular. But Pavia sued to return for one final year of eligibility and won, and with a lot of the same players around him, he’ll try to make a few more memories. The Commodores get shots at Alabama, Texas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina, and though only one of those games is at home, Pavia & Co. probably will scare the hell out of someone in that group.
23. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (No. 21 in 2024): King’s Tech began 2024 by sending Florida State down its nightmare path, then finished it by KO’ing unbeaten Miami and nearly beating Georgia. King and running back Jamal Haynes can play the ball-control game as well as just about anyone, and they get home games against both Clemson and Georgia in 2025. OK, fine, the Georgia game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and that only sort of counts. Still, that sounds semi-ominous.
Pure transcendence potential
24. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (No. 11 in 2024)
25. Caleb Downs, Ohio State
It was going to be almost impossible for Smith, a Hollywood, Florida, product, to live up to his recruiting hype. He did so almost immediately. He topped 80 receiving yards in 10 games and hit triple digits in five, including an all-time, 187-yard, two-touchdown performance against Oregon in the CFP quarterfinal (and his first Rose Bowl trip). Smith and Carnell Tate will give Julian Sayin the ultimate security blanket.
Meanwhile, though it was hard to be inspired by Ryan Day’s decision to replace outgoing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles with former Bill Belichick protege Matt Patricia — last truly strong performance as a coach: 2016; last year coaching in college: 2003 — Downs will give the Buckeyes basically a second coordinator on the field. He’s an almost perfect safety. He made 12 tackles at or near the line of scrimmage last season, delivered pressure on 31% of his pass rushes and gave up a 29% completion rate and 0.7 QBR when paired up in coverage. Ohio State faces a huge challenge, attempting to repeat as champ with a new starting QB and two new coordinators. But the Buckeyes could have the two best players in the sport. And that could be enough.
26. Peter Woods and/or T.J. Parker, Clemson: Nearly the perfect defensive line duo. Despite Woods sitting out three games, they combined for 24 tackles for loss, 23 run stops and 14 sacks last season, and they also welcome dynamic Purdue transfer Will Heldt to the party. But even with these two, the Tigers ranked just 29th in defensive SP+ last season. Most of the two-deep returns, and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen should provide a jolt of energy, but it might take a transcendent step from Parker or Woods for Clemson to make a title run.
27. Ryan Williams, Alabama: Jeremiah Smith had one of the best freshman seasons we’ve ever seen, but a different freshman might have made the best play of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
Williams’ production trailed off after a torrid first five games, but it’s clear what he is capable of. If he channels Georgia energy for a larger portion of 2025, he’ll make the Tide awfully terrifying.
28. Leonard Moore and/or Christian Gray, Notre Dame: It was honestly incredible. Notre Dame lost all-world cornerback Benjamin Morrison to injury six games into 2024 and didn’t miss a single beat because Gray and Moore — then just a sophomore and freshman, respectively — were so damn good. They finished the season having combined for 5 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles, and Gray’s spectacular interception of Drew Allar set up Notre Dame’s CFP semifinal win. Just imagine if even just one of these two hasn’t actually reached his ceiling.
Others: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas; Deontae Lawson, Alabama; Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame; Colin Simmons, Texas; Nicholas Singleton and/or Kaytron Allen, Penn State; Dylan Stewart, South Carolina
Most important players in the ACC race
Though the list to this point has focused mostly on teams with the best national title odds, a 12-team playoff with five conference champion automatic bids assures that tons of teams actually have playoff shots. So let’s focus on the bids that won’t go to the SEC and Big Ten champs.
29. Kevin Jennings, SMU: Last season was supposed to be Preston Stone‘s moment, but Jennings won the quarterback job early in 2024, then proceeded to win nine straight starts and lead SMU to both the ACC championship game and the CFP. But mistakes — two early turnovers against Clemson, three picks (including two pick-sixes) against Penn State — ended the season in ignominious fashion. If Jennings rebounds and improves, SMU will again contend for a CFP spot. But wow, was that a crushing way to end 2024.
30. Rueben Bain Jr., Miami: After an incredible freshman debut in 2023, Bain was hurt just three snaps into 2024, sat out more than a month and flashed a true fifth gear only a few times while the Miami defense crumbled down the stretch. But as with Harold Perkins Jr., the potential here is obvious, and if he is all the way back up to speed and Miami’s transfer-heavy secondary holds up, the Canes could leave most league contenders in the dust.
31. Miller Moss, Louisville (No. 20 in 2024): Moss was on this list last year as he prepared to succeed Caleb Williams at USC. He started the season brilliantly in a win over LSU but finished it on the bench as the Trojans wound up 7-6. He wasn’t bad — he finished 26th in Total QBR — but a fresh start sure seemed like a decent idea. Jeff Brohm has a pretty good history with quarterbacks, and Moss will have one of the nation’s best RB duos (plus explosive receiver Chris Bell) in support. A big Moss season makes the Cardinals contenders.
32. Darian Mensah, Duke: Duke was a mini-Michigan last season, playing good enough defense to win nine games despite no run game and a passing game Manny Diaz disliked so much that he immediately went out and grabbed Mensah with what was believed to be a big-money deal. At Tulane in 2024, Mensah was excellent for a redshirt freshman; if he becomes simply excellent, period, why shouldn’t the Blue Devils be considered contenders? (Especially with a light conference schedule featuring only one projected top-40 ACC team?)
Others: Isaac Brown and/or Duke Watson, Louisville; Kyle Louis, Pittsburgh; Francis Mauigoa, Miami; Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh; Chandler Rivers, Duke
Most important players in the Big 12 race
33. Avery Johnson, Kansas State: The Wildcats don’t need a big-time, blue-chip quarterback to win a lot of games. Kansas State’s three straight nine- or 10-win seasons (and 2022 Big 12 title) are a testament to that. But it sure would feel like a waste if the Wildcats didn’t do something particularly impressive when they had a blue-chipper from their own backyard. Johnson, a top-100 prospect and product of Maize, Kansas, was fun if predictably mistake-prone in 2024, but if he phases out some of the errors and maximizes the big plays, K-State’s ceiling is higher than 10 wins.
34. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State: It was almost lost in the Cam Skattebo hysteria, but Leavitt was absolutely dynamite during ASU’s late-2024 hot streak. From November onward, he ranked second among all FBS starters in Total QBR, averaging 7.9 yards per dropback with a 16-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio (and scrambling beautifully) despite losing his go-to receiver, Jordyn Tyson, to injury. Having Skattebo next to him helped in obvious ways, but with a deeper receiving corps and a still-decent set of RBs, Leavitt could pilot an exciting Sun Devils offense and lead a second straight conference title charge.
35. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor: We’re going particularly quarterback-heavy in this section, but, well, this is a quarterback-heavy conference. And over the course of 2024, Robertson might have been the conference’s best. (He had the best Total QBR, at least.) He threw for 3,071 yards at an explosive 13.4 yards per completion, and he returns last season’s top two receivers, Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. Baylor could have its best offense in a decade, which would give a work-in-progress defense quite a bit of margin for error.
36. Josh Hoover, TCU: Like TCU as a whole, Hoover spent much of 2024 looking great while under the radar. The Frogs won six of their last seven — they were probably the second-best team in the Big 12 after mid-October — and the quick-passing Hoover finished second in the conference in passing yards (3,949) and completion rate (66.5%), and first in yards per dropback (7.8). He’ll be working with a new receiving corps, but if he and TCU pick up where they left off, a conference title is within reach.
Others: David Bailey, Texas Tech; Rocco Becht, Iowa State; Devon Dampier, Utah; Spencer Fano, Utah; Behren Morton, Texas Tech; Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Most important Group of 5 players
37. Maddux Madsen, Boise State: Like Sam Leavitt, Madsen is going without training wheels this season. He no longer has the amazing Ashton Jeanty next to him, but he was still awfully good for a first-year starter in 2024. Madsen was fourth in Total QBR among Group of 5 QBs — second among those who threw more than 150 passes — and the Broncos were excellent on third downs, even when they had fallen off schedule. He’ll have experience all around him, and if he makes typical second-year-starter improvements, Boise State will be a runaway favorite to reach a second straight CFP.
38. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane: With both defending American Athletic champion Army and annual contender Memphis losing loads of production, Tulane has a massive opportunity to make a run in 2025, but it will require a quarterback. Jon Sumrall clearly knows this, as he brought in four QB transfers, and the latest might be the most vital.
1:13
How Jake Retzlaff ended up at Tulane
Pete Thamel gives the sequence of events that ended with former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff ending up at Tulane.
Retzlaff threw for 2,947 yards and 20 TDs as BYU surged up the Big 12 standings, and he’s now the biggest name in the Green Wave’s QB room. If he can get up to speed quickly, he’ll raise an already high ceiling in New Orleans.
39. Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Boise State: BSU must account for the loss of star pass rusher Ahmed Hassanein, but in Virgin-Morgan the Broncos might still have the best G5 defender in the country. He wasn’t quite as good as Hassanein against the run, but he has good size, and his 10 sacks as a sophomore (including 2.5 in two key wins over UNLV) were proof of massive potential. As with Madsen, a bit more development could make Boise nearly bullet-proof.
40. Alex Orji (No. 2 in 2024) or Anthony Colandrea, UNLV: The Rebels might be the single most fascinating team in the Group of 5. After winning 20 games in 2023 and ’24 (the same number they had won in the six years prior), they lost head coach Barry Odom and most of last season’s starters. That typically spells doom, but new head coach Dan Mullen has a fantastic résumé, and his transfer haul includes more blue-chippers than a lot of power-conference rosters can boast.
If either Orji or Colandrea thrive at quarterback, the Rebels could threaten Boise State. But Orji proved terribly one-dimensional in a failed audition at Michigan, and Colandrea was more confident than effective at Virginia. UNLV’s season could go in a lot of directions, but the ceiling is still high.
Others: Alonza Barnett III, James Madison; Walker Eget, San Jose State; Blake Horvath, Navy; Brendon Lewis, Memphis; Owen McCown, UTSA
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