You remember that “dire economic inheritance” the new government keeps talking about?
Earlier in the summer Rachel Reeves produced a document suggesting the state of Britain’s economy and public finances was so dismal – so much worse than expected – that she would be forced into introducing significant measures (which read: lots more tax rises) in this autumn’s budget.
The only thing is, much of the economic news since then has been, well, not dire in the slightest. Inflation is still low – so much so that earlier this month the Bank of England cut interest rates.
More compellingly, the latest estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity – show that far from being in recession, the UK is growing at a decent whack.
Indeed, having been the second-slowest growing economy in the group of seven leading industrialised nations in 2023, Britain is, at least over the first six months of 2024, the fastest growing member of the G7.
Image: Reeves is expected to announce a budget including more taxes and more spending cuts
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2:49
Do Labour’s claims stack up?
So a lot of people have been scratching their chins and wondering whether the new government might be overstating it a bit.
Might they just be making a political point, aimed at their predecessors in government?
Well, this morning we had the latest public finances numbers and here the picture is considerably closer to the Reeves version than those other bits of data.
The key thing here is to look beneath the overall borrowing figures. There you see a couple of key bits of information.
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First, despite the fact that the economy is growing faster than expected, it’s not resulting in a big windfall of tax revenues (as often happens).
Instead, according to the Office for National Statistics figures, revenues are basically in line with where the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expected them to be around now.
The OBR forecast back in March that by now (or rather, by July – the figures we got today) the government would have collected around £327bn in tax revenues. Instead it has collected only £326bn – a little bit less. So no big windfall.
But now look at the amount it’s spending, and the story is slightly more stark. The OBR thought the government would have spent around £396bn by this point in the year.
Instead, it’s already spent £405bn.
So it’s making less than expected and spending more than expected. And that overspend might not sound much, at £9bn.
But consider that £9bn happens to be precisely the amount of “headroom” the government has before it breaks its fiscal rules and you see the issue.
And this, bear in mind, is only the data for the first four months of the fiscal year. If these trends continue, the gap could get bigger still.
So on the face of it, today’s public finance numbers provide a clear rationale for the course of action the chancellor has (according to those I talk to in Whitehall) already decided upon: more taxes and more spending cuts in this October’s budget.
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However, it’s worth saying there is one other way for the chancellor to create extra headroom against her fiscal rules, which is to change the particular measure she’s judging that headroom against.
A lot of economists believe the net debt statistic she inherited from the Conservatives is the wrong one to use in her fiscal rules – and that she should use the country’s total national debt, not excluding any debt owned by the Bank of England.
Long story short, if she uses this other measure (and I’m told this is something she is considering) then she suddenly has a lot more headroom.
Even so, don’t expect her to change the tune at the budget in October. There will be more bad news to come.
A man has been charged – alongside five other men – with carrying out sexual offences against his now former wife over a 13-year period.
Philip Young, 49, formerly of Swindon, has been charged with 56 sexual offences, including multiple counts of rape, against Joanne Young, 48, Wiltshire Police said.
He is also charged with administering a substance with the intent to stupefy or overpower to allow sexual activity, as well as voyeurism, possession of indecent images of children and possession of extreme images.
Five other men have also been charged with sexual offences against Ms Young and will appear in court tomorrow, Wiltshire Police said.
Image: Swindon Magistrates’ Court. Pic: Google Street View
They are Norman Macksoni, 47, of Sharnbrook. He is a black British national and has been charged with one count of rape and possession of extreme images.
Dean Hamilton, 47, of no fixed abode. He is a white British national and has been charged with one count of rape and sexual assault by penetration and two counts of sexual touching.
Conner Sanderson Doyle, 31, of Swindon. He is a white British national and has been charged with sexual assault by penetration and sexual touching
Richard Wilkins, 61, of Swindon. He is a white British national and has been charged with one count of rape and sexual touching
Mohammed Hassan, 37, of Swindon. He is a British Asian male and has been charged with sexual touching.
Police say the offences took place between 2010 and 2023.
Geoff Smith, detective superintendent for Wiltshire Police, said: “This is a significant update in what is a complex and extensive investigation.
“The victim in this case, Joanne, has taken the decision to waive her automatic legal right to anonymity.
“She has been supported by specially trained officers from the beginning of the process and she has made the decision following multiple discussions with officers and support services.”
People who allege they are victims of rape have been automatically entitled to lifelong anonymity since the Sexual Offences (Amendment) Act was passed in 1976.
This has since been extended to certain other sexual offences, though victims can waive the protection if they wish.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
A major incident had been declared in Shropshire after a sinkhole breached a canal in the Chemistry area of Whitchurch.
Fire Control received reports at 4.22am that a canal bank had collapsed with large volumes of water escaping into the surrounding land.
Firefighters had to use barge boards and water gates to mitigate water flow to establish upstream and downstream safety sectors.
Image: Pic: Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service
Image: Sinkhole in Shropshire
Three narrowboats have been affected by the incident, with at least two swallowed by the sinkhole, which is approximately 50m by 50m in size.
There are currently no reports of any casualties, but around a dozen residents have been evacuated from nearby moored boats and are being relocated to a welfare centre at the former Whitchurch Police Station.
An area of land next to the canal has been flooded as a result of the breach.
Emergency services are currently on the scene, and a multi-agency response has been set up, co-ordinated through the Shropshire Tactical Co-ordination Group (TCG).
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Image: Pic: Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service
Image: Sinkhole in Shropshire
Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service said on X: “Shropshire FRS is responding to a landslip affecting the canal in the Whitchurch area.
“For everyone’s safety, members of the public are kindly asked to remain away from the affected area, including Whitchurch Marina, while crews and partners manage the incident.”
Puppy farms, trail hunting and snare traps are all set to be banned under animal welfare reforms being introduced by the government.
Ministers have today unveiled the government’s Animal Welfare Strategy, which also takes aim at other measures seen as cruel, such as shock collars, as well as cages and crates for farm animals.
But while proposals to improve animals’ lives have been welcomed, Labour have been accused of acting like “authoritarian control freaks” for plans to ban trail hunting by 2029.
This is the practice that sees an animal scent laid through the countryside, which then allows riders and dogs to ‘hunt’ the smell.
Labour banned fox hunting outright in 2004, but Sir Keir Starmer’s government has suggested trail hunting is now “being used as a smokescreen for hunting” foxes.
Announcing the reforms, Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds said: “This government is delivering the most ambitious animal welfare strategy in a generation.
“Our strategy will raise welfare standards for animals in the home, on the farm and in the wild.”
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Image: Emma Reynolds has said the UK is a “nation of animal lovers”.
Pic: PA
Under the proposals, puppy farms – large-scale sites where dogs are bred intensively – will be banned.
This is because these farms can see breeding dogs kept in “appalling conditions” and “denied proper care”, resulting in “long-term health issues”, according to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
The strategy has also launched a consultation on banning shock collars, which use electricity to sting pets and prevent them from escaping.
Other proposals include introducing new licences for rescue and rehoming organisations, promoting “responsible” dog ownership and bringing in new restrictions for farms to improve animal welfare.
These will see bans on “confinement systems” such as colony cages for hens and pig-farrowing crates, while requirements will be brought in to spare farmed fish “avoidable pain”.
The use of carbon dioxide to stun pigs will also be addressed, while farmers will be encouraged to choose to rear slower-growing meat chicken breeds.
In order to protect wild animals, snare traps will be banned alongside trail hunting, while restrictions on when hares can be shot will be introduced.
Image: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said the government “might as well ban walking dogs in the countryside”.
Pic: PA
The reforms have been publicly welcomed by multiple animal charities, including the RSPCA, Dogs Trust, Battersea Dogs and Cats Home, and World Farming UK, as well as by the supermarket Waitrose.
Thomas Schultz-Jagow, from the RSPCA, called the proposals a “significant step forward” and said they have the potential to improve millions of lives.
He added: “People in the UK love animals, and they want to see governments leading the way to outlaw cruel practices which cause suffering. This strategy leads the way by showing a strong commitment to animal welfare.”
Meanwhile, the Greens have also welcomed it but warned the strategy must have “real teeth”, “clear timescales” and “properly support farmers through the transition and not allow imports that don’t meet UK standards”.
Adrian Ramsay said: “Puppy legislation must end breeding for extreme, unhealthy traits in dogs. The strategy could go further for animals, particularly by ending greyhound racing, as the Welsh Government is doing.”
But the Conservatives have hit out at the strategy, saying it shows Labour “simply doesn’t care about rural Britain”.
Victoria Atkins, the shadow environment secretary, said: “While it is good to see the government taking forward Conservative policies to tackle puppy smuggling and livestock worrying, Labour is yet again favouring foreign farmers over British farmers by allowing substandard foreign imports to undercut our already-high welfare standards.”
She also accused Labour of announcing the strategy on the Monday before Christmas “to avoid scrutiny” as “they know that this will be another hammer blow to farming profitability”.
Hundreds of tractors are heading to Westminster to protest over changes to inheritance tax rules.
Challenged on whether the government will make meat import standards the same as those for UK farmers, a spokesperson for the PM said: “We will always consider whether overseas products have an unfair advantage, and we are prepared to use the full range of powers of disposal to ensure produce made here in the UK by our farmers is always the most viable option.
“The farming road map due in 2026 will set out our long-term vision.”
They pointed to the 57 recommendations put forward by former NFU boss Baroness Minette Batters last week, following the completion of the Farm Profitability Review. The spokesperson said that ministers are “considering them carefully”.
‘The Met have scored an own goal here and created carnage… we need to exercise our right to protest,’ said organiser Dan Willis.
But responding to the strategy, Nigel Farage said: “So now Labour wants to ban trail hunting. You might as well ban walking dogs in the countryside as they chase rabbits, hares, deer and foxes. Labour are authoritarian control freaks.”
Meanwhile, the Countryside Alliance, an organisation that promotes rural sport, said: “Why does the government want a war with the countryside?
“Trail hunting supports hundreds of jobs and is central to many rural communities. After its attack on family farms, the government should be focusing on addressing issues that actually help rural communities thrive, rather than pursuing divisive policies that hinder them.”