From new rivalries to midweek matchups: Connelly’s guide to enjoying the 2024 college football season
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Forty years ago, the floodgates officially opened. In June 1984, the Supreme Court ruled in NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma that the NCAA couldn’t control all college football television contracts and limit its exposure. Suddenly, ESPN, TBS, WGN, Raycom and others were racing to air as much football as they possibly could. And what a season for this all to start.
On ESPN alone, viewers watched a supposedly rebuilding BYU team upset No. 3 Pitt 20-14 with a late 50-yard touchdown pass from Robbie Bosco to Adam Haysbert in Week 1. A couple of weeks later, they saw No. 4 Texas take down Bo Jackson and preseason No. 1 Auburn. Then Doug Flutie threw for 354 yards and six touchdowns in a Boston College blowout of North Carolina. Both Miami and South Carolina took down a fading Notre Dame. Navy came within a last-minute John Carney field goal of doing the same. Vanderbilt nearly erased a 28-point deficit at No. 12 LSU but fell just short. Iowa State nearly upset No. 2 Oklahoma. West Virginia beat Penn State for the first time in 25 years, replete with a field storm and the downing of goal posts.
And that was only on ESPN! On other networks, viewers saw Flutie’s Hail Mary miracle over Miami, Maryland’s record-setting 31-point comeback against Miami, a shocking Syracuse upset of No. 1 Nebraska, No. 20 Georgia’s 26-23 upset of No. 2 Clemson and a controversial 15-15 tie between No. 1 Texas and No. 3 Oklahoma. And in the postseason, unbeaten and unexpected No. 1 BYU survived six turnovers to knock off Michigan in the Holiday Bowl on ESPN, which, combined with No. 4 Washington’s upset of No. 2 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl on NBC — thanks in part to a penalty on OU’s Sooner Schooner! — earned the Cougars maybe the most surprising national title the sport has produced.
How were we not going to be hooked at the end of that season?
Forty years after this glorious nonsense, the college football landscape looks just a wee bit different. The year-end top 10 in 1984 featured three teams from the Pac-10 (Washington, USC and UCLA), three from the Big 8 (Nebraska, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State), one from the Southwest Conference (SMU), one from the WAC (BYU), one non-Notre Dame independent (Boston College) and just one team from either the SEC or Big Ten (Florida, which was banned from the postseason).
In 2024, we’ve got a genuine, 12-team playoff atop the sport. BYU would have had to win three postseason games to secure the title (and it was good enough to do just that). Meanwhile, the Big 8, SWC and Pac-10 no longer exist. The WAC dropped football and only recently tried to bring it back. Washington, USC, UCLA and Nebraska are all in the Big Ten, Oklahoma is in the SEC, Boston College and SMU are in the ACC, and the SEC and Big Ten feature nine of the top- 11 teams in the preseason AP poll.
The balance of power (and most of the money) has coalesced dramatically, but college football is forever too big and too messy to contain. We probably cannot summon the chaos of the glorious 1984 season, but we’re always going to have fun. That’s particularly true if we know where to look. Here’s a road map to coaxing the most enjoyment out of this historic season.
Watch the big games (duh)
Sometimes you have to search for the fun, other times it’s staring you in the face. The spectacle of a big game is one of college football’s best draws, and we’ve got plenty of them in 2024. Based on preseason projections, here are three games from each week that feature (A) the highest combined projected SP+ ratings from the two teams and (B) a projected scoring margin (per SP+) under 10 points. (Games between two preseason AP top-15 teams are in bold.)
Week 1: Notre Dame at Texas A&M, LSU vs. USC (Sunday), Miami at Florida. Week 1 is for learning, and some of the teams with the most interesting questions square off. We’ll learn about Notre Dame’s remodeled offensive line, Conner Weigman and the new A&M offense, remodeled defenses at LSU and USC, and which embattled coach is more likely to pull off a 2024 surge, Miami’s Mario Cristobal or Florida’s Billy Napier.
Week 2: Texas at Michigan, Tennessee vs. NC State, Iowa State at Iowa. NC State gets an early spotlight opportunity, as does one of the most underrated rivalries in the country (Iowa-ISU). But Week 2 belongs to Texas’ trip to the Big House. (Conference realignment has scrambled my brain to the point where I thought Texas-Michigan was a conference matchup on multiple occasions this offseason.)
Week 3: Texas A&M at Florida, Arizona at Kansas State, UCF at TCU. The Big 12 did a really smart thing in scheduling quite a few exciting matchups in the back half of September, when the national schedule isn’t quite as strong. Meanwhile, A&M-Florida will either put us on Napier Fired watch or Florida Is Back watch.
Week 4: Tennessee at Oklahoma, NC State at Clemson, Utah at Oklahoma State. OU fans complained for years about a lack of marquee conference home games, but this year their inaugural SEC season starts with a visit from No. 15 Tennessee. You think the atmosphere might be fun for that? Elsewhere, Utah-OSU might tell us who the favorite is in OU’s former conference.
Week 5: Georgia at Alabama, Oklahoma at Auburn, Florida State at SMU. Alabama and Georgia have played each other six times in the past seven seasons but four of those games have been played in Atlanta (either the SEC or CFP championship), one was in Indianapolis (CFP) and one came in Tuscaloosa during the attendance-limited 2020 COVID season. This is the first genuine home game in this series since 2015.
Week 6: Missouri at Texas A&M, Clemson at Florida State, SMU at Louisville. Mizzou-A&M could have significant CFP at-large stakes, but Week 6 is the biggest of the season for the ACC, with the projected top-two conference teams squaring off, along with two of the most likely dark horse contenders.
Week 7: Ohio State at Oregon, Ole Miss at LSU, Oklahoma vs. Texas. Good gracious. And this list doesn’t even include Penn State at USC or Florida at Tennessee. This is about as big a week as major college football can offer.
Week 8: Georgia at Texas, Alabama at Tennessee, Kentucky at Florida. The SEC hogs the spotlight on the third Saturday in October. It’s hard to know for sure what the stakes of games like Bama-Tennessee or Kentucky-Florida will be by that point, but it’s safe to assume that Georgia-Texas will be enormous.
Week 9: Missouri at Alabama, Oklahoma at Ole Miss, LSU at Texas A&M. Another all-SEC affair. Mizzou gets its best chance to score a marquee win, OU fans visit The Grove for the first time, and while I have no idea what LSU-A&M will have in-store from a stakes perspective, this is a pretty reliably fun affair.
Week 10: Ohio State at Penn State, Oregon at Michigan, Kentucky at Tennessee. The Big Ten takes the baton as November begins. Its four preseason top-10 teams square off, with Penn State trying to beat Ohio State for the first time in eight years and Michigan and Oregon squaring off for the first time since Oregon’s 39-7 Big House blowout in 2007.
Week 11: Georgia at Ole Miss, Alabama at LSU, Florida State at Notre Dame. Week 7 is the first of the season’s two genuine fencepost weekends, with Week 11 as the second. We get these three games, all of which could have major CFP bid and/or seeding implications, and we also get Oklahoma’s first trip to Missouri since 2010, the first Florida-Texas game since 1940 and, of course, the Holy War (BYU at Utah).
Week 12: LSU at Florida, Nebraska at USC, UCLA at Washington. After a ridiculous five-week run, we take the foot off of the accelerator a bit here and shift into more existential vibes. All of these games could deliver more angst for the loser than joy for the winner.
Week 13: Alabama at Oklahoma, Ole Miss at Florida, Texas A&M at Auburn. Another SEC trio, led by OU’s second-huge SEC home game of the season. Meanwhile, Florida could be on an interim coach by this point or could completely wreck Ole Miss’ CFP hopes. Or maybe both! Hooray, mess!
Week 14: Michigan at Ohio State, Texas at Texas A&M, Oklahoma at LSU. College football can change as much as it possibly wants, but Rivalry Week is still Rivalry Week.
Immerse yourself in the largest playoff race ever
For those of us who spent years clamoring for a genuine playoff — not merely a four-teamer that gave us one extra game — we’re going to enjoy the hell out of the 12-teamer we’ve been given (before it becomes a 14-teamer, or before Greg Sankey demands seven automatic SEC bids, or whatever else is on the horizon). We’re now giving three times the amount of CFP teams a shot at the national title, and more than one-third of FBS begins the season with at least a glimmer of playoff hope. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, 47 teams enter 2024 with at least a 5% chance of making the CFP, and 71, more than half, have at least a 2% chance.
Do all 71 of these teams have hopes of winning the national title? Of course not. But access is awesome. We should have been doing this all along! Hopefully we don’t lose this when the sport’s powers attempt further power grabs in the future.
Bask in wild conference title races
Most conferences start the season with a pretty clear hierarchy. SP+ gives Georgia a 31% chance of winning the SEC for instance, with only six other conference teams having a 5% chance. In the Big Ten, Ohio State‘s at 30%, and the top-four teams combine for a 90% chance.
We’ve got a couple of genuinely democratic races, though. The Big 12, as wide-open a power conference as you’ll ever see, features only two teams with a greater than 12% chance (Kansas State and Utah), while five more are at 5% or higher (Oklahoma State, Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia, TCU) and two others nearly hit that mark (Texas Tech Red 4%, UCF 3%). This race could go in any number of different directions.
Then you’ve got the Sun Belt. James Madison has the second-lowest odds for any SP+ conference title favorite (22%) and is facing coaching turnover that SP+ isn’t designed to account for. Three others, meanwhile, are between 11% and 19% (App State, Troy and Louisiana), and five are between 4-6%.
Will a national title contender emerge from either of these two conferences? Probably not. Will that matter as we’re enjoying a wild stretch run with loads of plot twists? Absolutely not.
Celebrate the remaining rivalries
One of the more deleterious effects of conference realignment is the loss of some of the sport’s connective tissue, of games that have been played 100 times (or close to it) but won’t be played much, if at all, moving forward. We lost Bedlam (Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State) to this latest round, along with Texas–Texas Tech, Texas-Baylor and plenty of former Pac-12 matchups like UCLA–Cal and USC–Stanford. Others, like the Apple Cup (Washington vs. Washington State) and Civil War (Oregon vs. Oregon State), were moved to earlier in the season with lower stakes.
Rivalry Week will forever be something to celebrate (even if it now features new “rivalries” like Cal-SMU and Oklahoma-LSU), but we’ll have plenty to take-in before then. Here are some of my favorites, including a couple that realignment or fun nonconference scheduling brought back to us.
Week 1: Clemson vs. Georgia, Miami at Florida, Penn State at West Virginia
Week 2: Iowa State at Iowa, Colorado at Nebraska, Pitt at Cincinnati (the Armon Binns Bowl)
Week 3: Oregon at Oregon State, Washington State at Washington, Cincinnati at Miami (Ohio), Colorado at Colorado State, Appalachian State at East Carolina
Week 4: Iowa at Minnesota, TCU at SMU
Week 5: Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, Georgia Southern at Georgia State, New Mexico at NMSU
Week 6: Auburn at Georgia, Navy at Air Force
Week 7: Ole Miss at LSU, Florida at Tennessee
Week 8: Toledo at NIU (the Tommylee Lewis Bowl)
Week 9: Florida State at Miami, Kansas at Kansas State, Michigan State at Michigan
Week 10: Air Force at Army, TCU at Baylor
Week 11: BYU at Utah, Florida State at Notre Dame, Oklahoma at Missouri
Week 12: Texas at Arkansas (it’s back!)
Week 13: Stanford at Cal, USC at UCLA, Boise State at Wyoming
Boise State potentially having to win in Laramie in late November to hold onto a CFP spot? Count me all the way in on that one.
Embrace the absurdity
Look, nobody asked for USC-Rutgers as a conference rivalry, and the sport isn’t better off for its existence. But we embrace whatever weirdness we get in this sport, and to be sure, there are quite a few weird new conference matchups this year. Might as well immerse ourselves into them. Here’s a sample. Week 9 is going to be … a treat? Is that the right word?
Week 3: Stanford at Syracuse (Friday), Cal at Florida State
Week 4: Northwestern at Washington, Stanford at Clemson
Week 5: Washington at Rutgers
Week 6: USC at Minnesota
Week 7: Minnesota at UCLA, Cal at Pitt
Week 8: Oregon at Purdue (Friday), NC State at Cal, South Carolina at Oklahoma
Week 9: Rutgers at USC, Texas at Vanderbilt, Wake Forest at Stanford, Illinois at Oregon, Washington at Indiana
Week 10: Pitt at SMU
Week 11: Boston College at SMU, Maryland at Oregon, Cal at Wake Forest (Friday)
Week 12: Louisville at Stanford, Syracuse at Cal
Week 13: Kentucky at Texas
Oregon playing at Purdue in a night game — just ask Ohio State how those can go — is the ultimate “Welcome to the Big Ten” experience right there.
Try not to get blown away on Lake Michigan
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium is the official name of Northwestern’s makeshift stadium on the banks of Lake Michigan. It’s where it’ll play Miami (OH), Duke, Eastern Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin before moving to Wrigley Field to play Ohio State in Week 12 and Illinois in Week 14. This is going to be awfully unique, though I’m disappointed we missed out on an “Ohio State comes to Evanston No. 1 in the CFP rankings and has to survive 40 mph winds in a tiny stadium” scenario. Football at Wrigley is always pretty cool, though.
Watch the midweek games
Let’s be honest: Saturdays are absolute fire hoses sometimes. It’s impossible to keep up with everything you want to keep up with. But midweek games can sometimes be blessings in that regard. You can check on teams you’ve been wanting to see more of, and once November rolls around, you can immerse yourself in glorious MACtion.
Here’s one Tuesday-to-Friday game to pay particular attention to each week. (It was really hard limiting myself to just one for some.) The Friday slate is awfully strong this season.
Week 1: North Dakota State at Colorado (Thursday)
Week 2: Duke at Northwestern (Friday)
Week 3: Arizona at Kansas State (Friday)
Week 4: South Alabama at Appalachian State (Thursday)
Week 5: Virginia Tech at Miami (Friday)
Week 6: Texas State at Troy (Thursday)
Week 7: Memphis at USF (Friday)
Week 8: Oregon at Purdue (Friday)
Week 9: Boise State at UNLV (Friday)
Week 10: Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston (Tuesday)
Week 11: Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (Thursday)
Week 12: CMU at Toledo (Tuesday)
Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech (Thursday)
Week 14: Memphis at Tulane (Thursday)
Watch as much smaller-school football as you can
It’s one of my annual messages: The more small-school ball you watch, the healthier you become. In my Friday preview columns during the season, I always try to identify at least one smaller-school game to keep an eye on, but in addition to some super-interesting early-season matchups for highly ranked FCS teams — No. 4 Montana State at New Mexico in Week 0, No. 1 South Dakota State at Oklahoma State and No. 2 North Dakota State at Colorado in Week 1, No. 5 South Dakota at Wisconsin in Week 2 — here are two games per week that pit teams ranked particularly high in the preseason polls. These games will rock. I had to include three for Week 9.
Week 1: No. 3 Ferris State at No. 6 Pittsburg State (D2), No. 3 Georgetown (Kentucky) at No. 21 Montana Tech (NAIA)
Week 2: No. 3 Montana at No. 22 North Dakota (FCS), No. 19 John Carroll at No. 3 Wisconsin-Whitewater (D3)
Week 3: No. 11 College of Idaho at No. 4 Montana Western (NAIA), No. 1 North Central at No. 15 Aurora (D3)
Week 4: No. 6 Wisconsin-La Crosse (D3) at No. 4 Grand Valley State (D2), No. 2 Cortland at No. 12 Susquehanna (D3)
Week 5: No. 12 West Florida at No. 4 Grand Valley State (D2), No. 11 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota (FCS)
Week 6: No. 1 North Central at No. 9 Wheaton (D3), No. 1 Keiser at No. 12 St. Thomas (NAIA)
Week 7: No. 4 Montana State at No. 7 Idaho (FCS), No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 11 Southern Illinois (FCS)
Week 8: No. 1 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State (FCS), No. 1 Harding at No. 19 Ouachita Baptist (D2)
Week 9: No. 5 South Dakota at No. 1 South Dakota State (FCS), No. 3 Ferris State at No. 4 Grand Valley State (D2), No. 8 Bethel (Tennessee) at No. 3 Georgetown (Kentucky) (NAIA)
Week 10: No. 2 Central Missouri at No. 6 Pittsburg State (D2), No. 2 Northwestern (Iowa) at No. 10 Morningside (NAIA)
Week 11: No. 10 Sacramento State at No. 4 Montana State (FCS), No. 3 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Wisconsin-La Crosse (D3)
Week 12: No. 3 Montana at No. 4 Montana State (FCS), No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 5 South Dakota (FCS)
Better yet, adopt a small-school team
Want the full smaller-school experience? Follow a team (preferably a good one) from start to finish. Here are five particularly choice options.
1. Montana Grizzlies. Honestly, you can’t go wrong with just about anyone in the Big Sky. Montana State has a devastating run game, one of the best defensive players in the FCS (defensive end Brody Grebe) and a glorious locale. Idaho has one of my favorite head coaches (Jason Eck) and a potential breakout QB (Jack Layne) and plays in the glorious Kibbie Dome. Sacramento State has a mighty offensive line and 29 wins in three years. Eastern Washington plays on a blood red field and boasts yet another prolific quarterback (Kekoa Visperas). Portland State hasn’t been amazing of late but once fielded one of the most fun and influential teams of all time. And I’m wearing an utterly delightful Idaho State “Throwin’ Idahoans” shirt from Homefield Apparel as I write this.
Hell, maybe just adopt the Big Sky as a whole. You can’t go wrong. But if you’re just picking one team, pick the one that made the FCS title game last year and returns the guy who did this:
0:50
Junior Bergen returns the punt 47 yards for a TD vs. North Dakota
Junior Bergen makes a magnificent play as he weaves around the defense to return the 47-yard punt for a touchdown.
(That was his third return score in two playoff games. He would go on to both catch a touchdown pass and throw the game-winning 2-point conversion in overtime. It was one of the greatest playoff runs you’ll ever see.)
2. Central Missouri Mules. You like points, right? You like the forward pass? And great mascots? The Mules check all the boxes. Quarterback Zach Zebrowski returns after throwing for a Joe Burrow-ian 5,157 yards and 61 touchdowns and winning the Harlon Hill Award (a.k.a. the D2 Heisman). They lost to Harding, the eventual D2 national champions, by just one point in the playoffs, too.
3. SW Oklahoma State Bulldogs. Hey, sue me, the Bulldogs are my hometown team, and they need all the support they can get. Their next win will be their first since November 2022.
4. Wheaton. The Thunder are good, their stadium is right next to an active train track, their games had scores of 49-41, 41-34, 42-26, 36-35, 75-0, 52-6, 50-13, 61-6, 54-35, 41-34, 47-16 and 30-21 last season, and their entire offense consists of giving the ball to Giovanni Weeks until he falls over. He gained at least 140 yards from scrimmage in 11 of 12 games last season, and he’s back to both dish out and receive more punishment.
5. College of Idaho. I realize there is probably some residual Big Sky love working in their favor, but the Yotes reached the NAIA semifinals by scoring loads of points and throwing for loads of yards, and they return enough of last year’s team to rank third in the preseason polls this year. You won’t regret pulling up a choppy live feed of a game in Simplot Stadium this fall.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) June 30, 2025
ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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