This appears to have been a high-stakes Israeli military operation that risked igniting a regional war.
Israel will say it had no choice: One of the pillars of Israeli military doctrine has long been the principle that offence is the best form of defence.
It is not the first time it has used its air force hoping to defang an imminent threat. Israel insists it sent an armada of warplanes to the skies over Lebanon, more than a hundred strong, to stop an ‘extensive planned attack involving thousands of rocket launches’ about to be let loose by Hezbollah.
Just as Israel launched audacious air attacks obliterating Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser’s air force in 1967 and Saddam Hussein’s atomic programme in 1981, Israel says it despatched jets overnight to neutralise Hezbollah.
It is not clear how many enemy drones and missiles were already in the air. Hezbollah claims all 11 of its targets in Israel were hit and it launched 320 Katyusha rockets.
The primary strike it says was aimed at “a qualitative Israeli military target that will be announced later” as well as “enemy sites and barracks and Iron Dome [missile defence] platforms”.
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‘Whoever hurts us, we hurt him’
Israeli intelligence sources had claimed the airbase used in the strike on Shukr and the headquarters of Unit 8200, the Israeli military intelligence agency, north of Tel Aviv, were on Hezbollah’s target list.
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Hezbollah meanwhile says Israel’s operation failed to pre-empt its long-awaited retaliation and insists it succeeded in striking targets deep within Israel.
Two questions for now: Hezbollah’s next move and what this does to efforts to end the war in Gaza.
Will Hezbollah draw a line under the Shukr/Haniyeh affair? The organisation says today’s action is over but is more planned in the coming days? All eyes are on its commander Hassan Nasrallah who will address his faithful by video link tonight.
He has not been seen in public since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006 for fear of being assassinated by Israeli jets himself.
Hezbollah attacked Israel in the wake of Hamas atrocities on 7 October and has been locked in an almost daily artillery duel with Israel over their border ever since.
Israeli intelligence claims Hezbollah has amassed an arsenal of 150,000 missiles secreted in the hills of southern Lebanon since 2006, 10 times the amount it possessed back then.
It has so far refrained from unleashing that firepower: Analysts believe its paymasters and patrons in Tehran prefer to keep that armoury in reserve as an insurance policy for the day Israel may attack Iran itself, as well as its alleged nuclear programme.
But Israel has been testing that theory for months now, responding with force to Hezbollah’s attacks in the north. Each exchange of fire has the potential to escalate the region into a wider war through miscalculation and unintended mass civilian casualties.
So far, events overnight do not seem to have upended the fragile efforts towards a ceasefire in Gaza. Delegations are still on their way to Cairo for the next round of talks. If anything the escalation reemphasises the urgency behind the diplomacy.
But it could also offer the Israelis a distraction, should they want one, from huge pressure from the US to make the concessions required to reach a deal.
Most Israeli observers believe Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire on the terms currently being negotiated for fear it could lead to his coalition government falling apart.
But US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators insist the truce terms are the best and possibly last chance of bringing home Israel’s hostages and ending the war.
They also believe a ceasefire in Gaza is the best way of reducing tensions in the north – which have exploded overnight so spectacularly.
All eyes were on Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as they met for the first time in more than six years, the Russian president visiting the US for high-stakes talks that could reshape the war in Ukraine.
The two leaders greeted each other with a handshake after stepping off their planes at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, Alaska – and a smiling Trumpeven applauded Putinas he approached him on a red carpet that had been laid out.
It is exactly the moment Putin has craved, writes Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett. The Russian leader has been welcomed on to US soil as an equal for a meeting of great powers.
If that wasn’t enough, there followed a military flypast to dress the spectacle.
A smiling Putin seemed duly impressed, but what it says about the power dynamic in the relationship will trouble onlookers in Ukraine – and one moment they may have found particularly galling.
Posing for photographs with Trump before waiting media, Putin was asked: “Will you stop killing civilians?”
It was made in a rare interview with one of the key commanders of Ukraine’s drone forces.
We met in an undisclosed location in woods outside Kyiv. Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol is a wanted man.
There is a quiet, understated but steely resolve about this man hunted by Russia. His eyes are piercing and he speaks with precision and determination.
Image: Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol has been in charge of several devastating drone strikes against Russia
His drone units have done billions of dollars of damage to Russia’s economy and their range and potency is increasing exponentially.
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“Operations”, he said euphemistically, “will develop if Russia refuses a just peace and stays on Ukrainian territory”.
“Initially, we had a few drones a month, capable of striking targets 100 to 250 kilometres away. Today, we have drones capable of flying 3,000 to 4,000 kilometres, and that’s not the limit, it’s constrained only by fuel supply, which can be increased”.
Image: A Ukrainian drone struck this building in Kursk, Russia, on Friday. Pic: Kursk regional government/AP
Image: Cars were also damaged in the strike. Pic: Kursk regional government/AP
His teams had just carried off one of their most complicated and most devastating strikes yet. A massive fire was raging in an oil refinery in Volgograd, or Stalingrad as it was once called.
“If the refinery is completely destroyed, it will be one of the largest operations conducted,” Brigadier General Shchygol said. “There have been other major targets too, in Saratov and Akhtubinsk. Those refineries are now either non-operational or functioning at only 5% of capacity.”
Oil is potentially Vladimir Putin’s Achilles heel. So much of his economy and war effort is dependent on it. Donald Trump could cripple Russia tomorrow if he sanctioned it but so has appeared reluctant to do so, a source of constant frustration for the Ukrainians.
Military activity on both sides has increased as diplomacy has picked up pace.
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Moscow correspondent: What’s Putin’s strategy?
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In another long-range attack, Ukraine says it hit the port of Olya in Russia’s Astrakhan region, striking a ship loaded with drone parts and ammunition sent from Iran.
But on the ground, Russian forces have made a surprise advance of more than 15km into Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine says the intrusion can be contained, but it adds to fears about its ability to hold back the Russians along the 1000-mile frontline.
Image: Russian soldiers prepare to launch a Lancet drone in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Pic: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/AP
Russia launches almost nightly drone attacks on Ukraine’s cities, killing civilians and striking residential targets.
General Yuriy says Ukraine picks targets that hurt Russia’s war effort, and it is constantly honing its capability.
“Each operation”, he says, “uses multiple types of drones simultaneously, some fly higher, others lower. That is our technical edge.”
How satisfying, I asked, was it to watch so much enemy infrastructure go up in smoke? He answered with detached professionalism.
“It does not bring me pleasure, war can never be a source of enjoyment. Each of us has tasks we could fulfil in peacetime. But this is war; it doesn’t bring satisfaction. However, it benefits the state and harms our enemy.”
Whatever happens in Alaska, General Yuriy and his teams will continue pioneering drone warfare, hitting Vladimir Putin’s economy where it hurts most.
The spectacle of Israel’s Itamar Ben-Gvir humiliating perhaps the most popular of all Palestinians in his prison cell was as unedifying as the national security minister’s extremist politics.
“You won’t win. Whoever messes with the people of Israel, whoever murders our children, whoever murders our women, we will erase him,” Ben-Gvir told Marwan Barghouti, the figurehead of secular Palestinian nationalism, who appeared shocked and scared.
His lawyer told Al-Arabiya TV that Ben-Gvir threatened him directly and that his life is in danger.
Imprisoned since 2002 on murder charges and sentenced to five life sentences plus an additional 40 years for his role in the second intifada, the 67-year-old had not been seen in many years.
Image: Marwan Barghouti during his murder trial in 2002. File pic: AP
The sight of this drawn, diminished figure will shock many across the Arab world, where he is both hugely popular and considered a potential Palestinian unity leader, were Israel to ever release him.
Barghouti’s face, his hands cuffed above his head, stares out from walls and buildings across the West Bank – a potent symbol of Palestinian suffering and resistance in the face of the Israeli occupation.
His more than two-decade imprisonment leaves him untarnished from the charges of corruption and ineffectiveness levelled at the Palestinian leadership, and opinion polls before 7 October 2023 saw his popularity exceed that of both Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political wing, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
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Image: Palestinians walk by a portrait of jailed Marwan Barghouti near the West Bank city of Ramallah. File pic: AP
In a statement, the Palestinian Authority condemned Ben-Gvir’s visit as an “unprecedented provocation and organised state terrorism”.
It is also a clear abuse of Ben-Gvir’s authority as national security minister, where he has ultimate oversight over Israel’s prison system and therefore direct access to the record number of Palestinian detainees currently imprisoned there.
Barghouti’s family say he has been held in solitary confinement since the 7 October attacks and has been subjected to brutal assaults, one of which left him severely injured.
Israeli mistreatment
Barghouti will be no stranger to Israeli mistreatment.
In an op-ed from jail to the New York Times in 2017, he detailed the first time he was tortured at the age of just 18, when an Israeli interrogator “forced me to spread my legs while I stood naked in the interrogation room, before hitting my genitals”.
He passed out from the pain, hitting his head, which scarred permanently. Afterwards, he wrote, the Israeli interrogator mocked him, saying he would “never procreate because people like me give birth only to terrorists and murderers”.
Image: Marwan Barghouti in 2012. File pic: AP
Barghouti’s release has been a key component of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with talks in February 2024 breaking down when Israel refused to let him go.
Despite international pressure on Israel to ensure the humane treatment of its prisoners, the ICRC has not been granted access to Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention since the 7 October attacks.
String of provocations
Ben-Gvir and his fellow ultra-nationalist coalition partner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both excel at the provocative act.
Less than two weeks ago, Ben-Gvir was filmed visiting the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem where he said he prayed, which is in direct violation of the status quo agreement governing relations between Muslims and Jews at the key holy sites on Temple Mount.
Image: Itamar Ben-Gvir in Jerusalem’s Old City last month. Pic: Reuters
Bear in mind, it was Ariel Sharon’s visit to Temple Mount in 2000, which launched the second intifada, and you will get a sense of quite how incendiary that was.
Similarly, on Thursday, in what appeared to be a direct response to international calls for recognition of Palestinian statehood, Bezalel Smotrich announced that Israel would start the long-delayed E1 settlement project between the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
This, he said, would “bury” any notion of a Palestinian state once and for all.
The video showing the public humiliation of a man championed by the likes of Desmond Tutu and Jimmy Carter as the Palestinian Mandela, was released just hours later.
It looks like an attempt by Benjamin Netanyahu‘s ultra-nationalist allies to send a message both to Palestinians and to international supporters of Palestinian statehood that a state, and its potential leadership, is nothing but a pipe-dream.
Image: A protester in the West Bank holds a poster depicting Barghouti during a rally in solidarity with Gaza and prisoners held by Israel. Pic: AP
‘Still pursuing’ Barghouti in prison
In 2013, Barghouti’s wife, Fadwa, launched a campaign for his release and that of all Palestinian prisoners from Robben Island, where Mandela was imprisoned, to draw attention to the similarities between South Africa during the apartheid era and the plight of Palestinians under Israeli occupation.
After the release of this latest video, she wrote on her Facebook page that she barely recognised her husband and was scared to imagine what he had been subjected to.
“They are still pursuing you, Marwan, and chasing you even in the solitary cell where you’ve been living for two years,” she wrote.
“I know that nothing shakes you except what you hear about the pain of your people, and nothing defeats or pains you except the lack of protection for our sons and daughters. You are one of the people: wherever you are, you are among them, for them, with them.”