Oil prices to remain elevated as Middle East tensions threaten a wider conflict, CBA analyst warns
This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah UAV intercepted by Israeli air forces over north Israel on August 25, 2024. The Israeli military announced early August 25, 2024 that it was conducting pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon after detecting preparations for “large-scale” attacks by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Hezbollah said it had launched more than 320 rockets at Israel overnight, targeting a string of military positions, even as Israel’s military said it was carrying out pre-emptive strikes against the group.
Jalaa Marey | Afp | Getty Images
Tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a wider conflict will keep oil prices elevated, said Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Oil prices rose on Monday after Israel’s Air Force struck targets in Lebanon with over 100 fighter jets before the Iran-backed group fired more than 320 rockets into Israel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.75% at $75.39 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.67% to $79.55.
Iran-backed Hezbollah said the strikes were in retaliation to Israel’s killing of senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month. Israel said its pre-emptive strikes were aimed at foiling a bigger attack by the Hezbollah, Reuters reported.
“While market expectations are centered on Iran’s attack hurting Israel without triggering a wider regional conflict, Israel’s response will be equally important. And Israel’s response may include an attack on Iran’s oil supply and related infrastructure, which would put at risk 3 – 4% of global oil supply,” Dhar said.
Cedric Chehab, managing director and head of global risk at research firm BMI said the exchange of fire on Sunday does not mean that an “all-out war” is imminent.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia,” Chehab said that “what Hezbollah wanted to do, what Iran wanted to do, was to essentially allow for deterrence. So, [to] exercise that deterrence, and they’ve done that.”
While there is a risk that the confrontation spirals out into a wider conflict, there is still room for de-escalation, he added.
Both Israel and Iranian leaders “do not want this to get out of hand and to escalate … don’t forget, Iran has a new president who’s untested, and the idea is to apply pressure on Israel, but not necessarily engage in direct confrontation.”
While Dhar agreed with Chehab’s view that the events on Sunday are unlikely to be the catalyst for an all-out war in the region, he pointed out Iran has yet to retaliate against Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, in Tehran last month.
Dhar also said the progress of Gaza truce talks will be an indicator of how Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas interpret the events over the weekend.
Early Monday, Reuters reported that there was no agreement over ceasefire in talks on Sunday regarding the Gaza conflict, with Egyptian security sources telling the agency that neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to proposals presented by mediators in Cairo.
Dhar added while the escalation hurts truce talks at face value, the fact that Israel managed to thwart Hezbollah “may force Iran and its proxies to concede that Israel is in a position of power, particularly with U.S. backing, making the truce talks more palatable.”
He also forecasts that Brent futures will trade between $75 and $85 a barrel in September, with more potential upside if hopes for a truce in Gaza diminish, and as an Iranian reprisal against Israel is still “on the cards.”
“More broadly, the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East that permanently embroils Iran is an upside risk to our outlook.”
Tesla is gearing up to start selling its upcoming Tesla Semi electric truck in Europe with a new hire to develop the market.
Tesla Semi is finally about to go into volume production in the US after being unveiled almost a decade ago.
The vehicle was unveiled in 2017 and was initially scheduled to enter production in 2019; however, the automaker delayed the program on several occasions.
Tesla unveiled a “production version” in 2022, but it was only produced in small batches. The Class 8 electric truck remains a rare sight in the US, with only a few dozen units in the hands of a handful of customers and a few more in Tesla’s internal fleet.
In January 2023, Tesla announced an expansion of Gigafactory Nevada to build the Tesla Semi in volume.
However, that plan was also changed and delayed. Tesla ultimately built a separate factory adjacent to Gigafactory Nevada, and production was delayed until 2025.
Earlier this year, Tesla completed the building and started working on the production lines. The automaker said that Tesla Semi production was expected to begin in late 2025 and ramp up to a capacity of 50,000 trucks per year.
Now, we learn that Tesla is starting to build an organization to sell the Tesla Semi in Europe.
Electrek found that Tesla hired a new leader to head business development for Tesla Semi in Europe.
Usuf Schermo announced on his LinkedIn last week that he joined Tesla as “Head of Business Development EMEA for Tesla Semi.”
Schermo, who holds a master in economic engineering, energy and ressources management from TU Berlin, has some experience with commercial electric vehicles.
He was the head of sales in Germany for Volta Trucks from 2022 to 2024. The company made the Volta One, a 16-tonne electric truck aimed at city deliveries.
Volta went bankrupted in 2023, but it got back in business with a restructuring in 2024, which didn’t last long as they were insolvent as of last month.
For the last year, Schermo has been leading sales for EVUM aCar, a German startup building a small commercial vehicle.
Now, he will develop the market for Tesla’s class 8 electric truck.
The European electric commercial truck market is much developed in the US with already some significant competition from Volvo with the Volvo FH Electric, Mercedes-Benz with the eActros 600, MAN with the eTGX, and several others.
The market is still young, but Volvo is already emerging as a leader with an estimated more than 3,000 electric trucks in operations in Europe.
With production only starting in the US toward the end of the year, Tesla is not likely to have an homologated version of the Tesla Semi in Europe until later in 2026.
Tesla has already announced plans to build the Tesla Semi in Europe at Gigafactory Berlin.
The automaker currently only produces the Model Y at the German factory and its sales are crashing across Europe.
Electrek’s Take
I keep saying to Tesla fans that hate me: I track both Tesla hires and departures. I try to report on both, but the former are much more scarce than the latter these days.
This is one of the few significant hires of the last years at Tesla and say “significant” because it shows Tesla is preparing to sell the Tesla Semi in Europe because this is clearly not an executive level role.
Over the last year and since the great purge of talent in April 2024, Tesla has almost been exclusive promoting from within at higher director and VP levels rather than hire from outside.
As for the Tesla Semi in Europe, it could work. Like I said, there’s already a lot of competition, but Tesla Semi is expected to have a longer range than everything else, which should attract buyers.
However, as we recently reported, it is expected to be much more expensive than what Tesla previously announced.
It could particularly useful for Gigafactory Berlin, which is at a real risk right now with Tesla’s sales crashing in Europe. Producing a new vehicle program there, and a commercial one that rely less on consumer perception, could help increase factory utilization.
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Environment
Shipping groups are starting to shy away from the Strait of Hormuz as Israel-Iran conflict rages on
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speed boat sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Some shipowners are opting to steer clear of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, according to the world’s largest shipping association, reflecting a growing sense of industry unease as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on.
Israel’s surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure on Friday has been followed by four days of escalating warfare between the regional foes.
That has prompted shipowners to exercise an extra degree of caution in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway to the world’s oil industry — and a vital entry point for container ships calling at Dubai’s massive Jebel Ali Port.
Jakob Larsen, head of security at Bimco, which represents global shipowners, said the Israel-Iran conflict seems to be escalating, causing concerns in the shipowner community and prompting a “modest drop” in the number of ships sailing through the area.
Bimco, which typically doesn’t encourage vessels to stay away from certain areas, said the situation has introduced an element of uncertainty.
“Circumstances and risk tolerance vary widely across shipowners. It appears that most shipowners currently choose to proceed, while some seem to stay away,” Larsen told CNBC by email.
“During periods of heightened security threats, freight rates and crew wages often rise, creating an economic incentive for some to take the risk of passing through conflict zones. While these dynamics may seem rudimentary, they are the very mechanisms that have sustained global trade through conflicts and wars for centuries,” he added.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
In 2023, oil flows through the waterway averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The inability of oil to traverse through the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.
Alongside oil, the Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. That’s because ports in this region (Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan) are transshipment hubs, which means they serve as intermediary points in global shipping networks.
The majority of cargo volumes from those ports are destined for Dubai, which has become a hub for the movement of freight with feeder services in the Persian Gulf, South Asia and East Africa.
Peter Tirschwell, vice president for maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said there have been indications that shipping groups are starting to “shy away” from navigating the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, without naming any specific firms.
“You could see the impact that the Houthi rebels had on shipping through the Red Sea. Even though there [are] very few recent attacks on shipping in that region, nevertheless the threat has sent the vast majority of container trade moving around the south of Africa. That has been happening for the past year,” Tirschwell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
“The ocean carriers have no plans to go back in mass into the Red Sea and so, the very threat of military activity around a narrow important routing like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be enough to significantly disrupt shipping,” he added.
Israel-Iran conflict lifts freight rates
Freight rates jumped after the Israeli attacks on Iran last week. Indeed, data published Monday from analytics firm Kpler showed Mideast Gulf tanker freight rates to China surged 24% on Friday to $1.67 per barrel.
The upswing in VLCC (very large crude carrier) freight rates reflected the largest daily move year-to-date, albeit from a relative lull in June, and reaffirmed the level of perceived risk in the area.
Analysts at Kpler said more increases in freight rates are likely as the situation remains highly unstable, although maritime war risk premium remains unchanged for now.
Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 16, 2025.
Ronen Zvulun | Reuters
David Smith, head of hull and marine liabilities at insurance broker McGill and Partners, said shipping insurance rates, at least for the time being, “remain stable with no noticeable increases since the latest hostilities between Israel and Iran.”
But that “could change dramatically,” depending on whether there is escalation in the area, he added.
“With War quotes only valid for 48 hours prior to entry into the excluded ‘Breach’ area, Underwriters do have the ability to rapidly increase premiums in line with the perceived risk,” Smith told CNBC by email.
The Hapag-Lloyd AG Leverkusen Express sails out of the Yangshan Deepwater Port, operated by Shanghai International Port Group, on Aug. 7, 2019.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A spokesperson for German-based container shipping liner Hapag-Lloyd said the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz remains “significant,” albeit without an immediate risk to the maritime sector.
Hapag-Lloyd said it does not foresee any bigger issues in crossing the waterway for the moment, while acknowledging that the situation could change in a “very short” period of time.
The company added that it has no immediate plans to traverse the Red Sea, however, noting it hasn’t done so since the end of December 2023.
— CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco contributed to this report.
China’s EV automakers have surged ahead of the competition in global EV sales, and a new report shows just how far ahead they are.
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) just dropped its third annual Global Automaker Rating, showing that Chinese carmakers dominate the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) space. China now accounts for over 11 million EVs sold annually – over half of global EV sales.
Its massive domestic market has helped Chinese automakers build serious momentum. They’ve scaled up, improved tech, and are now setting the pace globally. Companies like Geely and SAIC have already hit 50% EV sales share, meeting their 2025 targets a full year early. In fact, Chinese automakers took the top five spots for ZEV class coverage, and five out of the top six for EV sales share.
Meanwhile, automakers in the US and Europe are trying to catch up. But they’re facing a dual challenge of falling behind on tech while navigating shaky regulatory environments.
The report also confirmed a big milestone: In 2024, BYD officially surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales for the first time. BYD’s BEV sales jumped 25%, and its combined BEV and plug-in hybrid sales climbed an impressive 47% year-over-year. Still, both BYD and Tesla remain in the “Leaders” category.
Automakers boosted energy efficiency, charging speed, and driving range thanks to newer, high-performance models.
“Our assessment revealed widespread improvement in BEV technology performance across the industry,” said Zifei Yang, ICCT’s global passenger vehicle lead. “GM and Honda made significant advancements by introducing high-performance models to their previously limited offerings, while companies like Geely, Chang’an, and Chery improved substantially with new high-performance EV lines.”
India’s Tata Motors also hit a turning point. For the first time, it graduated from ICCT’s “laggard” group to “transitioner,” thanks to new EVs and big moves on battery recycling and repurposing. While Japanese and South Korean automakers are still lagging behind, Honda and Nissan are inching forward. Honda launched its first US BEV, and Nissan finally clarified its ZEV targets.
One newer addition to this year’s report: a green steel metric. Since steel is the second-largest source of emissions in vehicle manufacturing (after batteries), ICCT now tracks which automakers are cutting emissions in the supply chain. European brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and VW earned high marks for sourcing renewable-powered green steel.
ICCT’s CEO, Drew Kodjak, summed it up: “The rapid evolution of the EV market in China has created technological and manufacturing advantages for companies there. For the wider global auto industry, this is no longer just about meeting future goals – it’s about remaining competitive today in a market that’s charging up.”
The full Global Automaker Rating, covering 21 major automakers, is now live on ICCT’s website.
Read more: EV prices dipped in May – and Tesla Model Y led the slide
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