“How did Florida end up there?”: The stakes are high for Billy Napier and the Gators
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Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer
When Billy Napier first got the call about the open Florida coaching job, he asked himself a question: “How did Florida end up there?”
“There” was not only 13 years removed from its last national championship and its last SEC title, but far behind rival Georgia, now a national power. Florida fans had been accustomed to winning championships. Even Napier grew up in Georgia watching Steve Spurrier dominate the Bulldogs.
“What do we need to do,” he wondered, “to right the ship and maybe change the attitude and approach?” Napier poked around to see what was wrong with the program and what would need to be done to fix it. Satisfied the administration would help him modernize the football program, Napier took the job.
Now headed into Year 3, Napier has overhauled everything, from the roster (only 12 players remain from his first team) to staffing, organization and approach. The problem is the on-field results have not yet followed, putting an even larger spotlight on Napier — who is 11-14 at Florida — and the Gators as they head into their highly anticipated opener against rival Miami on Saturday.
“I’m not a fool,” Napier said when asked about people who think the clock may be ticking on his tenure. “Part of leadership is you’ve got to have some self-awareness, and you have to make tough decisions. You have to make necessary changes. We’ve done that. I have a ton of confidence. This is all just part of the story.”
The story at the moment is about a Florida program that has been on a roller coaster since Urban Meyer stepped down following the 2010 season. Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen all found brief periods of success — each won at least 10 games once — but none of them made it a full four seasons as head coach.
As Florida struggled to find stability at head coach, Kirby Smart elevated Georgia to a national championship contender in short order, turning the tables on a rivalry the Gators dominated in the 1990s and 2000s. In nine seasons with the Bulldogs, Smart has lost to Florida just once. That has only added to the consternation among a Florida fan base eager to see a return to success.
The coaching transitions and slip from atop the SEC East affected recruiting, too. Since 2015, Florida has signed just two recruiting classes ranked in the top 10 — in a state known as a recruiting hotbed. The Gators are now recruiting players who were babies the last time they hoisted the national championship trophy.
Something more likely to be top of mind: Florida has posted three straight losing seasons for the first time since the 1940s and failed to make a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017.
“Once upon a time, there was a standard out there that we were the best of the best, and we are working to get back to that,” running back Montrell Johnson Jr. said during SEC media days, before minor knee surgery in August left his status for the opener in doubt. “That kind of makes me mad at times that we haven’t upheld it.”
When Napier made his calls during his interview process to find out why Florida had not won consistently enough, he learned the Gators had fallen behind with both their facilities and budget and were woefully behind from a recruiting, staffing, organization and sport science perspective.
His predecessors worked out of the same offices and meeting rooms inside the football stadium that had been used for decades. Players had to walk to and from practice fields located a quarter mile away and across a busy main road from their locker room inside the stadium. Mullen spearheaded the drive to get a $85 million standalone football facility built — it opened in 2022 and connects to the indoor practice facility.
Napier also asked for a significantly larger staff. The team’s support staff went from 45 people to 62. Florida has increased its assistant coach salary pool nearly $3 million to $7.5 million; another $5.3 million has gone to support staff.
The recruiting budget also has mushroomed to $2.89 million — after ranking No. 14 among SEC schools in Mullen’s final year, when the budget was $900,000. According to the latest athletic department operating budget in 2022-23, Florida spent $90.2 million on football.
Now Florida is in line with other SEC schools after years of complaints that these two specific areas were holding the program back. As one person familiar with the program pointed out, Napier has been given everything he wanted. But the on-field results are not there yet. Napier points to the rapidly changing college football landscape — including transfer rules and NIL — as one reason.
“I knew it was going to be very challenging because in our league, you’re chasing the top of the mountain,” Napier said. “To get there, it takes multiple cycles. The evolution and the chaos of our sport in the last couple of years is what’s been challenging.”
What has not helped is the way Florida has played. In Year 1, Florida had future No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson but won six games. Last year, special teams gaffes turned the Gators into a punchline at times. Napier never hired a special teams coordinator, and mistakes cost Florida in multiple games. Against Utah in the season opener, the Gators got a penalty after two players wearing the same number went onto the field during a punt, resulting in a penalty. The Utes got a first down and eventually scored on the drive in a 24-11 victory.
Later in the season against Arkansas, the field goal unit was coming onto the field as the offense was trying to spike the ball at the end of regulation to set up a game-winning field goal. The penalty forced a longer kick, which Trey Smack missed. Florida ranked in the bottom four in the SEC in field goal percentage (.750).
And though the Gators made improvements on defense, they still struggled on that side of the ball as well. They allowed Missouri to convert a fourth-and-17 with 38 seconds remaining, leading to a last-second field goal to give the Tigers a come-from-behind win. Florida ended last season on a five-game losing streak. In three of those games, the Gators had a fourth-quarter lead.
To address the issues, Napier overhauled his staff headed into 2024. Joe Houston came from the New England Patriots as an analyst, specifically focusing on special teams. Ron Roberts came in as co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, a veteran presence to help Austin Armstrong, the youngest coordinator in the SEC at 31. Napier also hired a new strength and conditioning coach and nutritionist.
“We’re close,” Napier said. “We’ve got a good thing going. I think maybe what you hear on the outside is not necessarily what it’s like on the inside. So, we’re anxious to get out there and play this year. This is the best team we’ve had since I’ve been here.”
Off-field headlines have not helped, either. Napier and two co-defendants are the subject of a lawsuit filed by former Florida signee Jaden Rashada over a failed NIL deal in 2022; Napier has said he feels “comfortable” with his actions and has filed a motion to dismiss the suit.
Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin has said he fully supports Napier, telling reporters at SEC spring meetings in May after Rashada filed his lawsuit, “I’ve got a tremendous amount of trust for Billy, not only who he is as a person, but how he conducts himself and how he treats other people.”
In addition to the lawsuit, Florida lost several high-profile players to the portal, including Trevor Etienne, who ended up at rival Georgia, and Princely Umanmielen, who went to Ole Miss and has publicly criticized the Florida strength program.
The focus in Gainesville is on the players who have opted to stay. Napier points to the team leadership, starting with quarterback Graham Mertz, who returns for a second and final season with the Gators after transferring from Wisconsin in 2023. Though Florida signed elite prep quarterback D.J. Lagway, the No. 8 player in the ESPN 300, Mertz is entrenched as the starter.
Mertz had the best season of his career in 2023, completing 72% of his passes while throwing for 20 touchdowns and a career-low three interceptions. One opposing coach praised the job Mertz did last season, calling him a difference-maker. Mertz, though, was not satisfied with his team’s losing record.
“You go back and you just turn on the games we lost, we just didn’t execute,” Mertz said. “We had too many penalties. We might have made the wrong read on a play. There are so many different things. We needed to get better, and that’s where I’ve seen across the board everybody’s been putting in that effort to hold up their end of the bargain.”
Still, it is impossible to talk about Florida without addressing Napier and his long-term future. The Gators’ schedule this year is ranked among the toughest in the nation with four games against preseason top-10 teams (Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Florida State) and four others against teams in the top 25 (Miami, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU).
Those familiar with the program said they knew the rebuild would take time because of the program Napier inherited, and because of the timeline of the vast overhaul he laid out. Napier would be owed a $25 million buyout if Florida decided to make a change after this season. The Gators have spent $20 million to buy out McElwain and Mullen. Would there be an appetite to keep spending money to get back on the coaching carousel for a fifth time in 14 years?
Three people familiar with the program said they believe Florida cannot keep hiring and firing coaches every four years — it will only keep setting the program back.
“I don’t think he has to do too much to save his job because there’s so much invested in the whole staff and everything,” Spurrier said. “I hope we can have a winning season. I predicted a winning season and [a win in] a bowl game. If we can do that, I think that would make everybody happy right now.”
Napier says he understands the speculation about his job security comes with his position, and that is not unique to Florida.
“Florida’s a lot like some of the other places I’ve worked,” he said. “When it’s good, it is phenomenal. When it’s bad, it’s horrendous. So, I think that’s the leadership challenge — trying to stay objective and stay steady and really evaluate things for what they are.” To that end, he said, “We’ve got work to do, and we’re in the middle of that.” Even if outsiders have put him on a proverbial “hot seat,” that term does not exist inside the Florida athletic department. Napier says he feels confident that those with decision-making power are behind him.
“You’ve got to deal with the outside noise, but you know the administration, you understand the heavy hitters, the big investors, they’re fully behind you,” Napier said. “They’re helping you solve problems. They’re invested in your team.”
In response to the idea coaches are no longer allowed enough time to build their programs, Napier said: “When you really look at college football, how many times has [winning right away] happened? Very rarely. Depending on the roster you inherit and the league you compete in, all those things matter. We’re chasing the 1 percent here, so it’s going to take some time to get there.”
Napier harks back to his late father, Bill, a high school football coach who inspired him and his brothers to become football coaches. Bill Napier was interwoven into the fabric of their community in Chatsworth, Georgia, as the winningest coach in Murray County High history.
“My dad, he wanted to win because he wanted that community to be proud,” Billy Napier said. “I’ve met former players, I’ve met investors, I’ve met die-hard Gators on the road in the springtime. That’s motivating to me, to get this right so that these people can wear their orange and blue and be proud of it again.”
If he does that, nobody will have to ask that question that he asked himself three years ago.
PHILADELPHIA — The Flyers celebrate the star of each victory this season by presenting him with a replica Bernie Parent goalie mask. The white mask with the Flyers logo on each side of the temples looks much like the one Parent wore as a cover boy in the 1970s on Time magazine when the Flyers truly meant something — beyond the Philly sports scene, and even the NHL — and he served as the cloaked face of the Broad Street Bullies.
The Flyers pulled out the mask Saturday night before their game against New Jersey and let it rest on top of one of the goalie nets. One more final tribute for Parent, the Hall of Fame goalie who was honored by the franchise this weekend two months after he died at age 80.
“Forever our No. 1,” said Lou Nolan, the Flyers’ public address announcer since 1972.
With that, the spotlight shone on Parent’s retired No. 1 banner that hangs in the rafters, just a row ahead of the two oversized Stanley Cup championship banners — the only ones in franchise history — that catch the eye in Flyers orange and might not even exist at all if not for the affable goalie from Montreal.
Parent anchored the net for the Flyers when the Bullies reigned under owner Ed Snider as one of the marquee teams in sports. Parent won Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe and Vezina trophies in back-to-back seasons when the Flyers captured the Stanley Cup in ’74 and ’75, the first NHL expansion team to win the championship.
Ahead of the game Saturday against New Jersey, a photo of a smiling Parent flashing his two Stanley Cup rings on the outside arena videoboard loomed large over the 9-foot bronze statue for Snider, the Flyers’ founder who died in 2016.
“‘We’ve got two Stanley Cups because of Bernie,” Hall of Famer Bobby Clarke said at a celebration of life event in front of thousands of Flyers fans.
Flyers fans poured out this weekend to remember Parent over a two-day celebration that started with Friday’s service and extended into Saturday’s tribute game. Flyers fans in droves wore No. 1 Parent jerseys during the game — and what would the goalie think even as, yes, his beloved Flyers scored three goals in 26 seconds against beleaguered Jake Allen — and they roared for every highlight from Parent’s glory years.
The loudest cheers were saved for the Stanley Cup highlights.
The Flyers beat the Boston Bruins in six games to win the Stanley Cup in 1974 and beat Buffalo in 1975. Parent had shutouts in the clinchers each season.
On the flight home from Buffalo, the Flyers plopped the Stanley Cup in the middle of the aisle. For close to 90 minutes, they couldn’t take their eyes off hockey’s ultimate prize.
“We were able to just sit back, look at the Stanley Cup and just savor it,” Parent said in 2010. “It was just a special time.”
With Parent the unstoppable force in net, “Only the Lord saves more than Bernie Parent,” became a popular bumper sticker in Philadelphia that would stick on him as a lifelong slogan — and popular autograph inscription request — through retirement and his many years as a team ambassador.
Parent also served as an ambassador for the Ed Snider Youth Hockey and Education program; a youth hockey program created in 2005 for under-resourced youth in Philadelphia.
The program announced Saturday it would honor Parent’s legacy with the Bernie Parent Goalie Development Program, aimed to prepare young people for success both on and off the ice. Flyers Charities presented a $50,000 donation which was matched by Snider’s children.
Parent, team captain Bobby Clarke and Dave “The Hammer” Schultz all became stars for the Flyers under Snider in an era when the team was known for its rugged style of play that earned the Bullies nickname. They embraced their moniker as the roughest team in the NHL and pounded their way into the hearts of Flyers fans. More than 2 million fans packed Philadelphia streets for each of their championship parades.
Most of the living members from the Cup teams attended the game Saturday and Clarke choked back tears at the memorial as he listed other Flyers from the Stanley Cup teams who have since died. Barry Ashbee. Ed Van Impe. Bill Flett. Ross Lonsberry. Rick MacLeish
“And now, God bless Bernie, because he’s going to join them,” Clarke said. “And the rest of us, until we go join them, we will talk together forever.”
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Mackenzie Blackwood made 35 saves to lead the Colorado Avalanche to a 3-0 victory over the Nashville Predators on Saturday night.
Brent Burns scored early, and Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Drury added empty-net goals for the Avalanche. Colorado has won eight straight, their longest winning streak since taking nine in a row March 4-24, 2024.
The Avalanche hold the best record in the league and are five points up from the second-place Carolina Hurricanes.
Juuse Saros made 23 saves for the Predators, losers of seven of eight. Saturday was the first game back in North America for the Predators after playing a pair of Global Series games last week against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Stockholm, Sweden. The Predators have been shutout in consecutive games.
The shutout was the first of the season and 15th of Blackwood’s career.
Burns scored the game’s first goal just 15 seconds after the opening faceoff.
After a battle in the right corner, the puck came to Burns above the right circle, where he beat Saros with a wrist shot on the first shot of the game.
The game remained 1-0 until MacKinnon scored an empty-net goal was 1:35 remaining in the third with Saros pulled for an extra attacker. Drury added another empty-netter with 51 seconds left.
MacKinnon has three goals in his last two games.
Colorado defenseman Cale Makar failed to record a point in a road game for the first time this season.
The Predators outshot the Avalanche 16-6 in the first, but couldn’t get one past Blackwood.
Saturday was just the fifth time this season that an opponent has outshot the Avalanche. Colorado is 5-0-0 in those games.
Blackwood stopped Nashville’s Michael McCarron with 5:47 remaining in the third on a backhand from the low slot to keep the Predators off the board.
Predators captain Roman Josi returned to the lineup Saturday after missing 12 games with an upper-body injury.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Surprise — there were no surprises.
After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members could also think Georgia would have a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.
Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)
Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.
11. BYU Cougars (10-1)
Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.
12. Utah Utes (9-2)
Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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