Cast your mind back to the heady days of early July, as a beaming Sir Keir Starmer swept into Downing Street to a cheering crowd and the promise of “change”.
Britain’s seventh ever Labour prime minister had won a landslide that deservedly drew parallels between himself and the party’s most successful election winner Tony Blair.
Yet on Tuesday, just over 50 days on from that moment, Sir Keir was very clear that the ballot box victory was where the parallel ends.
Forget New Labour’s “things can only get better” mantra. In his first major Downing Street speech, this prime minister was clear that in his Britain “things can only get worse – for now”.
Armed with a new slogan across the lectern – “fixing the foundations” – Sir Keir set out the parlous state of the public finances, the dangerous populism that had flourished under the Tories and corroded our communities, triggering the recent riots, and the erosion of trust between government and the governed.
He reiterated his commitment to put government “back into the service of working people” and to repair “broken Britain”. But, he said, it would take time, be “painful” and involve unpopular decisions.
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In a nutshell, this was a prime minister preparing the ground for tax rises and spending cuts in the autumn – all those questions avoided during the general election, now answered up front from the vantage point of being in government with a massive majority.
The autumn budget was “going to be painful”, he told an audience of members of the public he had met during the election campaign.
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“We have no other choice, given the situation we’re in,” he added. “Frankly, things will get worse before they get better.”
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PM: Budget will be ‘painful’
For all the talk of doing politics differently, Sir Keir was rolling out a well-worn political strategy – blame the previous government for the terrible state of the country in order to create some space to do unpopular things.
His calculation is that the public will blame the past government, not his, particularly if – as he highlighted in his speech – voters can see the new administration is getting on with its priorities around growing the economy, green energy, housebuilding, or cutting NHS waiting lists by striking public sector pay deals.
“Come the autumn, if we can show we are getting on with it, we hope it will buy us some time,” said one senior government figure. “What people will want is progress checks.”
But, as the controversy over the scrapping of the universal winter fuel allowance payments to pensioners shows, these difficult decisions will face a backlash.
The Starmer administration is already under fire from some on its own side to amend the policy and that noise is unlikely to dim as the increased energy price cap kicks in over the autumn and winter.
And what of tax rises? Sir Keir told me in our Sky News Leaders’ Debate he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond what was outlined in the manifesto.
But in reality, questions around tax rises and spending cuts, given the state of the public finances, were raised repeatedly in the election, and Labour avoided answering them.
Rishi Sunak is now already arguing that Labour are doing what he warned they would in the election – put up taxes.
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‘Hunt lied over state of public finances’
This will undoubtedly be the running battle of the autumn. On Tuesday, Sir Keir ruled out raising taxes on “working people”, in the shape of income tax, national insurance of VAT.
But he left no doubt in my mind tax rises were on the way as he signalled that “those with the broadest shoulders” should carry the burden, paving the way for more levies on the wealthy, and perhaps big business too.
Sir Keir might be successful politically in pinning the blame on the Tories. But he does not want to just have a political win. He wants to restore trust in politics.
For now, voters might be forgiven for thinking it is more of the same – the promise of change before the election only to then witness a blame game in which politicians trade blows and the public have to take the political pain after the win.
Things can only get worse is indeed, as Sharon Graham of Unite put it after Sir Keir’s speech, a “bleak picture” of Britain. But it is now the opening chapter of this Labour administration.
For a country running out of patience, Sir Keir will need to show some progress on his missions too. Labour won on a slogan of change, not more of the same.
Eight men have been arrested by the Metropolitan Police in two unconnected but “significant” terrorism investigations.
In one operation on Saturday, counter-terror officers arrested five men – four of whom are Iranian nationals – as they swooped in on various locations around the country. All are in police custody.
The Met said the arrests related to a “suspected plot to target a specific premises”.
In an update shortly after midnight, the force said: “Officers have been in contact with the affected site to make them aware and provide relevant advice and support, but for operational reasons, we are not able to provide further information at this time.”
Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “Counter-terrorism policing, supported by police and colleagues from across the country, have conducted arrests in two really significant operations, both of which have been designed to keep the public safe from threats.
“There are several hundred officers and staff working on this investigation, and we will work very hard to ensure we understand the threats to the wider public.”
He refused to say if the plot was related to Israel, but described it as “certainly significant” and said “it is unusual for us to conduct this scale of activity”.
He also asked the public to “avoid speculation and some of the things that are being posted online”.
MI5 director general Ken McCallum said in October that the intelligence agency had responded to 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots since 2022. He warned of the risk of an “increase or broadening of Iranian state aggression in the UK”.
Rochdale resident Kyle Warren, who witnessed one of the arrests at a neighbouring house, said his children had been playing in the garden when they came running into the house, saying a man in a mask had told them to go inside.
“Obviously, I was a bit worried,” Mr Warren told Sky News’ Lisa Dowd, and so he went into the garden to investigate.
“As we’ve come out, we just heard a massive bang, seen loads of police everywhere with guns, shouting at us to get inside the house.”
Image: Kyle Warren said his children were ‘petrified’
From upstairs in his house, he then heard “loads of shouting in the house” and saw a man being pulled out of the back of the house, “dragged down the side entry and thrown into all the bushes and then handcuffed”.
There were about 20 to 30 officers with guns, he believes.
“It’s just shocking, really. You don’t expect it on your doorstep.”
His daughters were “petrified… I don’t think they’ve ever seen a gun, so to see 20 masked men with guns running round was quite scary for them”.
Mr Warren, who only moved into his house a year ago, said he had “never really seen anyone going in or out” of the house and actually thought it was empty.
Image: One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
Image: One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
Arrests and searches around the country
The Met added officers were carrying out searches at a number of addresses in the Greater Manchester, London and Swindon areas in connection with the investigation.
It said those detained were:
• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Swindon area • A 46-year-old man arrested in west London • A 29-year-old man arrested in the Stockport area • A 40-year-old man arrested in the Rochdale area • A man whose age was not confirmed arrested in the Manchester area.
Image: A 29-year-old man was arrested in the Stockport area
Terror arrests in separate investigation
Police also arrested three further Iranian nationals in London on Saturday as part of another, unrelated counter-terror investigation.
The suspects were detained under section 27 of the National Security Act 2023, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “These were two major operations that reflect some of the biggest counter state threat and counter terrorism operations that we have seen in recent years.
“This reflects the complexity of the kinds of challenges to our national security that we continue to face.”
Earlier, she thanked police and security services in a statement, and called the incidents “serious events that demonstrate the ongoing requirement to adapt our response to national security threats”.
Last year, the government placed the whole of the Iranian state – including its intelligence services – on the enhanced tier of the new foreign influence registration scheme.
It means anyone asked by Iran to carry out actions for the state must declare it, or face prison time.
And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.
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Counter terror officers raid property
Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.
He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.
“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.
The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollahin Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.
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The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.
“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.
“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.
“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”
As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.
So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.
The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.
Tributes have been paid to 14-year-old Layton Carr who died in a fire at an industrial estate.
Eleven boys and three girls, aged between 11 and 14 years, have been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after the incident in Gateshead on Friday. They remain in police custody.
Image: Police were alerted to a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area
Firefighters raced to Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area shortly after 8pm, putting out the blaze a short time later.
Police then issued an appeal for a missing boy, Layton Carr, who was believed to be in the area at the time.
In a statement, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.
Layton’s next of kin have been informed and are being supported by specialist officers, police added.
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Teenager dies in industrial estate fire
A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.
Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”
One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”
Another added: “My boy ❤️ my baby cousin, my Layton. Nothing will ever come close to the pain I feel right now. Forever 14. I’ll miss you sausage.”
A third said: “Rest in peace big lad such a beautiful soul taken far to soon my thoughts are with you Gee stay strong girl hear for u always.”
Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”
She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.
They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.
A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.