Which tax rises could the Labour government introduce in the autumn budget?
There’s going to be “a lot of bad news” in the chancellor’s autumn budget – which the prime minister has said will be “painful”.
Speaking from Downing Street, Sir Keir Starmer said the public will have to “accept short-term pain for long-term good“.
Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway heard there was going to be “a lot of bad news” in the fiscal event as the government continues to remind voters about its financial inheritance from the Tories, with borrowing at levels not seen since the pandemic.
Rachel Reeves’s first budget on 30 October will be “quite miserable”, Conway has said – with spending cuts and tax rises both expected.
The latter is something Ms Reeves herself has admitted will be on the cards, though Sir Keir vowed in its election manifesto that income tax, national insurance, and VAT wouldn’t budge – remaking the pledge in August.
With that in mind, Sky News looks at which ones could be targeted.
Inheritance tax
This is one of the taxes most likely to be changed.
Inheritance tax is charged at 40% on the value of an estate above £325,000 when someone dies.
The tax rate could be increased, or the value people have to pay inheritance from could be lowered to raise money.
There are currently several exemptions, including on agricultural land and family businesses, but these could be lifted to include them.
The government could also reduce the number of years allowed when giving away assets before someone dies before inheritance tax kicks in.
A leaked recording from March revealed now chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, saying inheritance tax could be used to “redistribute wealth” and address “intergenerational equality”.
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Will Labour raise taxes?
Capital gains tax
Capital gains is imposed on the profit from the sale of capital assets, including second homes, shares, business assets and most personal possessions worth £6,000 or more, apart from cars.
Currently, people do not have to pay tax on the first £3,000 of profits, or £1,500 for trusts.
The minimum limit could be removed and the tax could be imposed on assets currently exempt.
Like inheritance tax, it is one of the taxes that is being most talked about to be targeted.
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Council tax
In the leaked recording from Mr Jones, he said he was frustrated by the “out of date” council tax system and hinted homes worth over £1m may have to pay more.
Former shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth told Sky News during the election campaign that Labour would not change council tax bands.
Council tax is currently set in bands that are based on the 1991 value of homes, which has been branded “absurd” by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and “incredibly poorly designed” by the Institute for Government “(IfG).
Gemma Tetlow, chief economist at the IfG, said council tax could be reformed “in a very sensible way… rather than having the banded system you could move to something that is much more proportional tax on land revenue”.
She added: “You could do that sensible structural reform and raise some extra money at the same time.”
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Labour ‘rolling the pitch’ for tax hikes
Business rates
Labour are understood to be consulting on changing business rates, which are charged on most non-domestic properties with relief for some including small businesses, retail, hospitality and leisure properties.
A change could be made so they are related to the value of the land instead of the current rateable value, which is an estimate of how much it would cost to rent that property for a year in April 2021.
Pic: iStock
Stamp duty
Stamp duty is paid on the cost of a property over £250,000, with more paid for second homes and by non-UK residents, and relief for first-time buyers.
It currently discourages people from moving home and is part of the reason older people are not moving out of expensive, larger properties.
Labour could change the tax so it is focused on annual land value tax instead of on a transaction – but that could be a hard sell with the party.
Despite the ongoing market meltdown on US trade tariffs, executives at major cryptocurrency firms Messari and Sygnum are bullish on institutional Bitcoin adoption later in 2025.
Speaking on a panel at Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said they expect a significant shift in the banking sector’s involvement with crypto in the second half of the year.
According to the executives, the global banking push into Bitcoin (BTC) services has great potential to happen in the second half of 2025 as regulators embrace crypto, including stablecoins and crypto services by banks.
“I think we’re probably looking at a muted Q2, but I’m really excited for Q3 and Q4,” Messari’s Turner said during the panel discussion moderated by Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, forecasting “really interesting” things coming to the crypto market in 2025.
Crypto adoption is not just about Trump
While some investors focus on the pro-crypto stance of US President Donald Trump, Turner emphasized that broader regulatory momentum is what matters most.
“When you look at the potential of having market structure regulation in the US, stablecoin regulation, and just the fact that across the board, not just President Trump himself, but the SEC and all these regulatory industries are really embracing crypto,” Turner said.
Paris Blockchain Week’s panel with Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, Bancor co-founder Eyal Hertzog, Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger, Messari CEO Eric Turner, AWS fintech leader Alex Matsuo and Near chief operating officer Chris Donovan. Source: Cointelegraph
Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said international banks with US branches are also poised to enter the market once the legal landscape becomes clearer:
“I think it’s a matter of fact that US banks are preparing to be able to offer crypto custody and at least crypto spot trading services anytime soon.”
“I think by then I would agree with you, Eric,” he continued, projecting a continued phase of market uncertainty until the US establishes a clear regulatory framework.
Related: Ripple acquires crypto-friendly prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25B
Banks are no longer afraid of Bitcoin regulators
With the establishment of clear crypto rules for banks in the US, there will be a rush for crypto services by large international banks that are incorporated outside of the US but have a US-based presence, Eichenberger said.
“Some of them may have had their strategic plans in their cupboard to offer crypto-related services, but have been afraid that at some point they will be gone after by any of the US regulatory authorities,” he said, adding:
“Now I think there’s no one to be afraid of anymore in terms of regulatory authorities worldwide. So I think many of the large international banks will launch this year.”
Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again
Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.
Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.
However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:
“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”
Source: Raoul Pal
“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.
Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes
China retaliates with new tariffs
Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.
In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.
China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis
China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.
Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely
As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.
Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.
Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined
Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.
“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:
“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”
Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
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