Libya’s power divisions could once more fracture its oil output – as markets question for how long
Crude oil leaks from an oil pumping jack in an oil field in Russia.
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A political standoff in Libya risks once more paralyzing the north African country’s lucrative oil sector — but the frequency of its power tussles and crude disruptions have called long-term oil price support into question.
Politically fractured since the NATO-backed ousting of Moammar Gadhafi, Libya once more finds itself mired in conflict between the internationally recognized Tripoli government of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and its eastern Benghazi-based rival administration endorsed by Libya’s highest legislative body, the House of Representatives. Hanging over them is the specter of eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar, whose allied forces safeguard and control most of the country’s oilfields.
Tensions recently spiked once more over the fate of oil revenues, as efforts by Dbeibeh to remove Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir prompted the Benghazi administration to announce the shutdown of oilfields.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), which administers the country’s hydrocarbon resources, has yet to comment on the announced closures, but its subsidiary Waha Oil has acknowledged “protests and pressures could lead to the cessation of oil production,” according to a Google-translated statement.
Fellow subsidiary Sirte Oil cited the same reasons for having to “gradually reduce production” and urged “specialized authorities to intervene to preserve the continuity of oil production” in a Google-translated social media post.
Libyan sources who could only comment anonymously because of security concerns told CNBC that several fields have fully shut down or reduced crude production.
Prior to the latest escalation, Libya’s largest field, the 300,000 barrels-per-day El Sharara, was shut down in early August amid protests orchestrated by demonstrators from the Fezzan region. The National Oil Corporation subsequently declared force majeure — a legal provision covering a company when it fails to deliver oil supplies because of circumstances out of its control — on El Sharara’s crude exports on Aug. 7, according to a NOC note to clients.
Since then, production of Libya’s largest export crude grade Es Sider has declined, with the Dhahra field shut down, along with gradual or complete halts at the Amal, Nafoora, El Feel and Mesla fields, Libyan sources tell CNBC.
A member of the influential Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group, Libya boasted a crude production of 1.18 million barrels per day in July, according to independent assessments cited in the August edition of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market report — and between 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of this volume could “likely go offline by the end of the week,” Rapidan analysts said at the start of the week, warning that supplies and exports from the majority of Libya’s hydrocarbon-rich “Oil Crescent” region “will be offline within days, with outages lasting several weeks.”
Echoing the sentiment, Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, described the latest shutdowns as “the real thing,” flagging that the disruption could last for “at least a month (and possibly far longer)” amid “zero trust” between the rival parties.
But Libya’s oil production has long been a victim of ransom for capital or political advantage — and the frequency of transient disruptions have eroded some market participants’ expectations that the latest disturbance will last long term. Oil prices, which have been slumping under the auspices of anemic demand from the world’s largest crude importer China, rallied on Monday on the Libyan reports — but surrendered much of these gains in the Tuesday session.
Prices were down once more on Wednesday, with the Brent crude futures contract with October expiry trading at $78.42 per barrel at 12:57 p.m. London time, down by $1.13 cents per barrel from the previous settlement. The front-month October Nymex WTI contract was at $74.31 per barrel, lower by $1.22 per barrel from the Tuesday close price.
“Prices have not stayed elevated on the Libyan reports especially because, there’s a couple of things: the first one, I think, is because of the current disagreement on the Central Bank, the Libyan Central Bank, I think is likely to resolve soon,” Jorge Leon, senior vice president of oil market research at Rystad Energy, told CNBC Wednesday.
“We haven’t really seen … extended Libyan supply disruptions in the last two years and even more, [in the last] two and a half years, and I think this time is not going to be different. I think that both parties have incentive to resolve this as soon as possible,” he added.
Goldman Sachs analysts likewise saw the prospective Libyan disruption as short lived.
“Market participants seem sanguine,” Barclays’ Amarpreet Singh assessed in a Tuesday note, flagging that “in a way, the situation in Libya is reminiscent of the elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as in fundamentals could move in the direction opposite to the risks implied by geopolitical developments for a sustained period.”
Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testifies during a remote video hearing held by subcommittees of the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on “Social Media’s Role in Promoting Extremism and Misinformation” in Washington, U.S., March 25, 2021.
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Block jumped more than 5% on Monday, leading a rally in shares of fintech companies as analysts downplayed the threat of JPMorgan Chase’s reported plan to charge data aggregators for access to customer financial information.
The recovery followed steep declines on Friday, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan had circulated pricing sheets outlining potential fees for aggregators like Plaid and Yodlee, which connect fintech platforms to users’ bank data.
In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said the potential new expenses were “far from a ‘business model-breaking’ cost increase.”
In addition to Block’s rise, PayPal climbed 3.5% on Monday after sliding Friday. Robinhood and Shift4 recorded modest gains.
Broader market momentum helped fuel some of the rebound. The Nasdaq closed at a record, and crypto rallied, with bitcoin climbing past $123,000. Ether, solana, and other altcoins also gained.
Evercore ISI’s analysts said that even if JPMorgan’s changes were implemented, the most immediate effect would be a slight bump in the cost of one-time account setups — perhaps 50 to 60 cents.
Morgan Stanley echoed that view, writing that any impact would be “negligible,” especially for large fintechs that rely more on debit, credit, or stored balances than bank account pulls for transactions.
PayPal doesn’t anticipate much short-term impact, according to a person with knowledge of the issue. The person, who asked not to be named in order to speak about private financial matters, noted that PayPal relies on aggregators primarily for account verification and already has long-term pricing contracts in place.
While smaller fintechs that depend heavily on automated clearing house (ACH) rails or Open Banking frameworks for onboarding and compliance may face real pressure if the fees take effect, analysts said the larger platforms are largely insulated.
WATCH: Congress moves to redraw $3.7 trillion crypto market rules, opening door to Wall Street
The global EV market is still charging ahead. According to new numbers from global research firm Rho Motion, 9.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, up 28% compared to the same period last year. But not every region is accelerating at the same pace.
China and Europe are doing the heavy lifting
More than half of the world’s EVs this year have been bought in China. That market hit 5.5 million sales in the first six months of 2025 – a 32% jump year-over-year. Around half of new cars bought in China are now electric.
While some Chinese cities’ subsidies have dried up, Rho Motion expects momentum to pick back up later in the year as more funding is released.
In Europe, 2 million EVs were sold in the first half of the year, up 26%. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales also rose 26%, thanks in part to affordable models like the Renault 4 (pictured) and 5 entering the market. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) weren’t far behind, growing 27% year-to-date. Chinese automakers are leaning into PHEVs as a way to work around the EU’s new tariffs on BEVs.
Spain is leading the pack with EV sales soaring 85% so far this year. Its generous MOVES III incentive program was extended in April and has kept sales strong. The UK and Germany are also seeing solid growth – 32% and 40%, respectively. France, however, is slumping. With subsidies cut, EV sales there have dropped 13%.
North America is stuck in the slow lane
Things aren’t looking quite as bright in North America. EV sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico are up just 3% so far this year.
Mexico is the one bright spot, with a 20% boost. The US is up 6%. But Canada is down a whopping 23%.
And things could get bumpier. On July 4, Trump signed Congress’s big bill into law, which axes all the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credits. Those consumer credits for EVs now officially end on September 30.
Just over half of the EVs sold in the US this year qualified for those credits. Rho Motion predicts a rush in Q3 before the subsidies disappear – and a decline in sales after that.
Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “With Trump’s latest cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the US could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”
Global EV sales snapshot, H1 2025 vs H1 2024
- Global: 9.1 million (+28%)
- China: 5.5 million (+32%)
- Europe: 2.0 million (+26%)
- North America: 0.9 million (+3%)
- Rest of world: 0.7 million (+40%)
Read more: China breaks records as global EV sales hit 7.2 million in 2025
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Lucid’s electric sedan can drive further, charge faster, and packs more advanced tech than most of the competition. That might explain why it’s leading the segment. The Lucid Air remained the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US after widening its lead in the Q2.
The Lucid Air is America’s best-selling luxury EV sedan
The 2025 Lucid Air Pure arrived as the “World’s most efficient car” with an EPA-estimated range of 420 miles and a record 146 MPGe.
It just set a new Guinness World Record last week for the longest journey by an electric car after travelling 749 miles (1,205 km) on a single charge.
That record was set in the range-topping Lucid Air Grand Touring model, which is rated for up to 512 miles of EPA-estimated range. On the WLTP scale, it’s rated at 597 miles (960 km). Either way, it still crushed the estimates.
According to second-quarter sales data, released by Kelley Blue Book on Monday, the Lucid Air is still America’s best-selling luxury EV.
Lucid sold 2,630 Air models in Q2, up 10% from the previous year. Through the first half of 2025, Lucid Air sales are up 17% with 5,094 units sold.
Tesla, on the other hand, only sold 1,435 Model Ss during the quarter, 71% fewer than it did in Q2 2024. Tesla Model S sales in the US are down 70% through the first half of the year at 2,715.
Although Porsche Taycan sales were up 32% with 1,064 models sold, the significantly upgraded 2025 model year was expected to see even more demand. Porsche has 2,083 Taycans in the US this year, up just 1% from 2024.
Other luxury EV sedans, such as the BMW i5 (1,434), i7 (820), and the Mercedes EQS (498), experienced steep double-digit sales declines year-over-year.
And it’s not just electric luxury sedans. The Lucid Air is currently outselling many gas-powered vehicles in its segment.
Lucid’s first electric SUV, the Gravity, is also rolling out. Although only five were sold in the second quarter, Lucid is quickly scaling production. Lucid aims to produce 20,000 vehicles this year, more than double the roughly 9,000 it built in 2024.
Earlier today, Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, confirmed during an interview with Bloomberg that the company expects higher Gravity output in the second half of the year.
The interview was at the grand opening of Panasonic’s new battery cell plant in De Soto, Kansas. Winterhoff said Lucid will start using new cells from the facility, but not until next year.
Lucid’s CEO stressed the importance of establishing a local supply chain, as policy changes under the Trump Administration are taking effect. Lucid and Panasonic are collaborating to localize EV materials, such as graphite. Last month, Lucid secured a multi-year supply agreement with Graphite One for US-sourced Graphite.
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