Nvidia’s earnings report shows the problem of being priced for perfection
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address during the Nvidia GTC Artificial Intelligence Conference at SAP Center on March 18, 2024 in San Jose, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Nvidia reported its fourth-straight quarter of triple-digit revenue growth on Wednesday, sailing past estimates on the top and bottom line while also issuing a forecast that topped Wall Street expectations. The company even bolstered its buyback program with a plan to repurchase $50 billion in shares.
But the stock dropped 7% in extended trading.
That’s life for Nvidia, which has ridden the artificial intelligence boom to a $3 trillion market cap, soaring almost nine-fold since the end of 2022 and surpassing every public company other than Apple in valuation. (It topped Apple for a stretch in June.)
In addition to reporting 122% annual revenue growth on Wednesday to over $30 billion, Nvidia said sales in the current period will jump about 80% to roughly $32.5 billion. Analysts were expecting close to $32 billion.
However, Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein, told CNBC before the report came out that “buyside whispers” were closer to $33 billion to $34 billion, meaning Nvidia would have to dramatically surpass analyst estimates in its guidance in order to see a pop.
Rasgon, who recommends buying shares of the chipmaker, said there are no indications that demand is waning for Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), the core infrastructure for developing and running AI models.
“There’s still a ton of demand,” Rasgon said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “They’re still shipping everything that they can sell.”
Nvidia said it expects to ship “several billion dollars” worth of Blackwell revenue in the fiscal third quarter, which ends in October. Blackwell is the company’s latest generation of technology, following Hopper. There had been some concerns that Blackwell would be delayed, but CFO Colette Kress said on the call with analysts that “supply and availability have improved.”
Still, “demand for Blackwell platforms is well above supply, and we expect this to continue into next year,” Kress said.
Other than missing the “whisper” numbers, some investors may be looking at Nvidia’s gross margin, which slipped a bit in the quarter to 75.1% from 78.4% in the prior period. That’s up from 43.5% two years ago and 70.1% in the fiscal second quarter of last year.
For the full year, the company said it expects its gross margin to be in the “mid-70% range.” Analysts were expecting full-year margin of 76.4%, according to StreetAccount.
‘Getting returns right away’
On the earnings call, analysts asked Nvidia executives about customers and whether they’re making money on their investment. Following the company’s prior report, Kress gave investors data points showing that a cloud provider could make $5 over four years selling access to $1 of Nvidia chips.
This time, Nvidia took a different approach. CEO Jensen Huang said on Wednesday’s call that Nvidia’s technology will be taking work away from traditional processors, like those made by Intel or AMD. He also said generative AI would start to do more coding, that companies like Meta can use Nvidia chips for recommender systems, and that nations are starting to buy more chips.
“The people who are investing in Nvidia infrastructure are getting returns on it right away,” Huang said.
Huang also said that next-generation AI models would require “10, 20, 40 times” more computing power, echoing comments recently made by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.
The logo of Nvidia Corporation is seen during the annual Computex computer exhibition in Taipei, Taiwan.
Tyrone Siu | Reuters
“The frontier models are growing in quite substantial scale,” Huang said.
He said Nvidia’s main customers are vying to be first to produce new AI advancements.
“The first person to the next plateau gets to introduce a revolutionary level of AI,” Huang said. “The second person who gets there is incrementally better or about the same.”
But buying into Nvidia at these levels is a bet that the company can continue to outperform very high expectations and requires a willingness to accept the kind of stock volatility generally reserved for much smaller companies.
After reaching a record in June, Nvidia proceeded to lose almost 30% of its value over the next seven weeks, shedding roughly $800 billion in market cap. It’s since recovered most of those losses.
In the past two years, the stock has moved 5% or more in a single day on 50 separate occasions. For Microsoft, that’s happened only six times, which is one more than for Apple. At Meta, it’s happened 21 times. Tesla fans, however, can relate. Shares of the electric automaker have moved at least 5% on more than 70 trading days over that stretch.
One reason for Nvidia’s increased volatility is that it relies on a small group of customers — including those mentioned above — for an outsized amount of its revenue. Top execs at Alphabet and Meta both acknowledged recently that they could be overspending in their AI buildout, but said the risk of underinvesting was too great for them to not be aggressive.
Technology
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Chinese bargain retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect Friday.
In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.
Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.
The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. Trump briefly suspended the de minimis rule in February before reinstating the provision days later as customs officials struggled to process and collect tariffs on a mountain of low-value packages.
The end of de minimis, as well as Trump’s new 145% tariffs on China, has forced Temu to raise prices, suspend its aggressive online advertising push and now alter the selection of goods available to American shoppers to circumvent higher levies.
A Temu spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that all sales in the U.S. are now handled by local sellers and said they are fulfilled “from within the country.” Temu said pricing for U.S. shoppers “remains unchanged.”
“Temu has been actively recruiting U.S. sellers to join the platform,” the spokesperson said. “The move is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and grow their businesses.”
Before the change, shoppers who attempted to purchase Temu products shipped from China were confronted with “import charges” of between 130% and 150%. The fees often cost more than the individual item and more than doubled the price of many orders.
Temu advertises that local products have “no import charges” and “no extra charges upon delivery.”
The company, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, has gradually built up its inventory in the U.S. over the past year in anticipation of escalating trade tensions and the removal of de minimis.
Shein, which has also benefited from the loophole, moved to raise prices last week. The fast-fashion retailer added a banner at checkout that says, “Tariffs are included in the price you pay. You’ll never have to pay extra at delivery.”
Many third-party sellers on Amazon rely on Chinese manufacturers to source or assemble their products. The company’s Temu competitor, called Amazon Haul, has relied on de minimis to ship products priced at $20 or less directly from China to the U.S.
Amazon said Tuesday following a dustup with the White House that had it considered showing tariff-related costs on Haul products ahead of the de minimis cutoff but that it has since scrapped those plans.
Prior to Trump’s second term in office, the Biden administration had also looked to curtail the provision. Critics of the de minimis provision argue that it harms American businesses and that it facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances because, they say, the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.
— CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report.
WATCH: Trump tariffs mean higher prices, big losses for Amazon sellers
Jeff Bezos, founder and executive chairman of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post, takes the stage during The New York Times’ annual DealBook Summit, at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City, Dec. 4, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares in the company over the next year, according to a financial filing on Friday.
Bezos, who stepped down as CEO in 2021 but remains Amazon’s top shareholder, is selling the shares as part of a trading plan adopted on March 4, the filing states. The stake would be worth about $4.8 billion at the current price.
The disclosure follows Amazon’s first-quarter earnings report late Thursday. While profit and revenue topped estimates, the company’s forecast for operating income in the current quarter came in below Wall Street’s expectations.
The results show that Amazon is bracing for uncertainty related to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. The company landed in the crosshairs of the White House this week over a report that Amazon planned to show shoppers the cost of the tariffs. Trump personally called Bezos to complain, and Amazon clarified that no such change was coming.
Bezos previously offloaded about $13.5 billion worth of Amazon shares last year, marking his first sale of company stock since 2021.
Since handing over the Amazon CEO role to Andy Jassy, Bezos has spent more of his time on his space exploration company, Blue Origin, and his $10 billion climate and biodiversity fund. He’s used Amazon share sales to help fund Blue Origin, as well as the Day One Fund, which he launched in September 2018 to provide education in low-income communities and combat homelessness.
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