Sir Keir Starmer will need to show progress on his missions amid the bleak picture he has painted

Published

5 months ago

August 28, 2024

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Cast your mind back to the heady days of early July, as a beaming Sir Keir Starmer swept into Downing Street to a cheering crowd and the promise of “change”.

Britain’s seventh ever Labour prime minister had won a landslide that deservedly drew parallels between himself and the party’s most successful election winner Tony Blair.

Yet on Tuesday, just over 50 days on from that moment, Sir Keir was very clear that the ballot box victory was where the parallel ends.

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Forget New Labour’s “things can only get better” mantra. In his first major Downing Street speech, this prime minister was clear that in his Britain “things can only get worse – for now”.

Armed with a new slogan across the lectern – “fixing the foundations” – Sir Keir set out the parlous state of the public finances, the dangerous populism that had flourished under the Tories and corroded our communities, triggering the recent riots, and the erosion of trust between government and the governed.

He reiterated his commitment to put government “back into the service of working people” and to repair “broken Britain”. But, he said, it would take time, be “painful” and involve unpopular decisions.

In a nutshell, this was a prime minister preparing the ground for tax rises and spending cuts in the autumn – all those questions avoided during the general election, now answered up front from the vantage point of being in government with a massive majority.

The autumn budget was “going to be painful”, he told an audience of members of the public he had met during the election campaign.

“We have no other choice, given the situation we’re in,” he added. “Frankly, things will get worse before they get better.”

For all the talk of doing politics differently, Sir Keir was rolling out a well-worn political strategy – blame the previous government for the terrible state of the country in order to create some space to do unpopular things.

His calculation is that the public will blame the past government, not his, particularly if – as he highlighted in his speech – voters can see the new administration is getting on with its priorities around growing the economy, green energy, housebuilding, or cutting NHS waiting lists by striking public sector pay deals.

“Come the autumn, if we can show we are getting on with it, we hope it will buy us some time,” said one senior government figure. “What people will want is progress checks.”

But, as the controversy over the scrapping of the universal winter fuel allowance payments to pensioners shows, these difficult decisions will face a backlash.

The Starmer administration is already under fire from some on its own side to amend the policy and that noise is unlikely to dim as the increased energy price cap kicks in over the autumn and winter.

And what of tax rises? Sir Keir told me in our Sky News Leaders’ Debate he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond what was outlined in the manifesto.

Now he says that what Labour characterise as a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances – caused in part by Labour’s decision to settle on public sector pay recommendations – leave him with few options.

But in reality, questions around tax rises and spending cuts, given the state of the public finances, were raised repeatedly in the election, and Labour avoided answering them.

Rishi Sunak is now already arguing that Labour are doing what he warned they would in the election – put up taxes.

This will undoubtedly be the running battle of the autumn. On Tuesday, Sir Keir ruled out raising taxes on “working people”, in the shape of income tax, national insurance of VAT.

But he left no doubt in my mind tax rises were on the way as he signalled that “those with the broadest shoulders” should carry the burden, paving the way for more levies on the wealthy, and perhaps big business too.

Sir Keir might be successful politically in pinning the blame on the Tories. But he does not want to just have a political win. He wants to restore trust in politics.

For now, voters might be forgiven for thinking it is more of the same – the promise of change before the election only to then witness a blame game in which politicians trade blows and the public have to take the political pain after the win.

Things can only get worse is indeed, as Sharon Graham of Unite put it after Sir Keir’s speech, a “bleak picture” of Britain. But it is now the opening chapter of this Labour administration.

For a country running out of patience, Sir Keir will need to show some progress on his missions too. Labour won on a slogan of change, not more of the same.

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer to sign 100-year ‘friendship’ deal with Ukraine in first Kyiv visit since becoming PM

Published

3 hours ago

January 16, 2025

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Sir Keir Starmer to sign 100-year 'friendship' deal with Ukraine in first Kyiv visit since becoming PM

Keir Starmer will sign a century-long partnership with Ukraine today, as the prime minister makes his first visit to the war-torn country in an effort to shore up support for Kyiv – just days ahead of the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.

Sir Keir said the 100-year agreement underpinned Britain’s “steadfast support” for Ukraine as he reiterated European unity in the face of Russia n aggression. The treaty and political declaration will be laid in parliament in the coming weeks.

“Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away for its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure. Instead, we are closer than ever and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level,” said the prime minister.

“The power of our long-term friendships cannot be underestimated. Supporting Ukraine to defend itself from Russia’s barbaric invasion and rebuild a prosperous, sovereign future, is vital to the government’s security and Plan for Change.”

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The PM’s visit is part of a wider effort on the part of European leaders to shore up support for Kyiv as they ramp up discussions over regional security ahead of the handover of power in Washington. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland on Wednesday.

The flurry of diplomatic activity comes as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified ahead of the inauguration of president-elect Trump, with Vladimir Putin trying to take as much territory as possible ahead of expected peace talks.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s state energy company was forced into emergency cuts after a massive Russian military attack.

Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine after nearly three years of war and says any deal to end the conflict must take that into account.

In September 2022, it proclaimed four regions that it only partly controls as part of its own territory, which was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) as an “attempted illegal annexation”.

While President Joe Biden was steadfast in the US’s continuing support of Ukraine’s military effort, Trump has made it clear he wants to end the conflict quickly, hastening discussions about what a settlement might look like between Kyiv and Moscow.

In November, President Zelenskyy said for the first time in an interview with Sky News that Ukraine was prepared to temporarily cede territory to Russia to end the war if the conflict was frozen along current lines.

He added after a ceasefire was agreed, Kyiv could negotiate for the return of seized territory.

Sir Keir has also changed his tone, from insisting allies must “double down” on support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” at the November G20 summit, to saying British policy was now “to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations”.

The prime minister will want to reiterate to President Zelenskyy that nothing is off the table, as the duo discuss the ongoing conflict, the impending Trump presidency and what a settlement could look like.

As part of the partnership deal, the UK will bolster military collaboration on maritime security through a new framework to strengthen the Baltic, Black and Azov seas.

President Zelenskyy has reportedly told journalists the two leaders will discuss the possibility of British troops joining a post-war peacekeeping force, as other European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron – who visited the PM at his Chequers country residence last week – and Tusk have similar conversations.

Ukraine relies on US support to continue the conflict, given it provides the bulk of military aid. But Trump has made it clear he is reluctant to keep funding the war, saying during the election campaign he would end it “within 24 hours” of taking office.

He has subsequently acknowledged that ending the conflict will be more difficult, but his administration is keen to press ahead: Trump has said he will arrange a call with Putin soon after his inauguration on 20 January, while the new US envoy to Ukraine, retired lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, said last week he wanted a solution to the war in the first 100 days of office.

The discussion around peacekeeping forces is part of a wider conversation among European allies about what security guarantees should be put in place for Ukraine, including buffer zones and the threat of more weapons for Ukraine in the absence of NATO membership.

President Zelenskyy has said any guarantees must be backed up by the US as the prospect of a NATO membership invitation fades from view.

Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a clear red line for Moscow, with Putin describing Kyiv joining the security alliance as “an unacceptable threat”.

Last week, Trump acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that”.

European leaders are concerned Trump will force Ukraine into an unjust peace deal, and they will be shut out of the negotiations which will shape the security of the continent for many years.

NATO chief Mark Rutte last month cautioned Trump over his plans for a peace deal, warning it would lead to the West’s enemies “high fiving” and would only serve to embolden China, North Korea and Iran.

The PM has come under criticism from Conservative rivals for not visiting Ukraine sooner, with former defence secretary Grant Shapps saying he was “astonished” is has taken the PM six months in power to visit the country.

However, Sir Keir has met the Ukrainian leader six times, as well as hosting him twice at Number 10 since taking office in July.

Politics

SEC files opening brief in its appeal against Ripple over XRP

Published

4 hours ago

January 16, 2025

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SEC files opening brief in its appeal against Ripple over XRP

The securities regulator wants an appeals court to rule that XRP tokens sold to retail investors were unregistered securities, the latest in its years-long case against Ripple Labs.