The Heisman winner, the 12th man and the great Texas A&M-Notre Dame towel heist of 1988
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
TIM BROWN IS part of an elite fraternity. He’s one of 10 men inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame with a Heisman Trophy. Warren Barhorst is part of a select group as well. He’s one of 90 people inducted into the Nationwide Insurance Hall of Fame.
The two could’ve crossed paths anywhere. But the most unlikely place might have been where they actually did meet: in the 1988 Cotton Bowl during the first-ever meeting between Texas A&M and Notre Dame.
Brown was Notre Dame’s seventh Heisman Trophy winner, a golden-domed superstar playing for one of the greatest programs in college football history, averaging 14.2 yards per touch receiving, rushing and returning kicks en route to 1,847 all-purpose yards in 1987.
Barhorst, too, represented his school, but he wasn’t the subject of any recruiting battles. Instead, he started his college career at Stephen F. Austin before transferring to Texas A&M, eventually trying out as a walk-on in hopes of one day living his dream of playing on Kyle Field.
Brown was a nationally coveted recruit. Barhorst was another dreamer at the school where a walk-on named E. King Gill suited up to help his team in another bowl game in Dallas in 1922, inspiring the 12th Man tradition in College Station, where students stand the entire game to represent their willingness to help their team, like Gill did during an injury-riddled Dixie Classic.
Brown was riding high coming into the game. But by the time the Cotton Bowl rolled around on Jan. 1, Barhorst, a senior, had just barely made it through his final season as a student and tackling dummy in practice.
“I’m getting tired, I’m beat up,” Barhorst said. “[I thought] ‘I’m going to quit football.’ And a guy named Dennis Mudd tells me, ‘Hell Barhorst, don’t quit. Someday you’ll make a play that could change your life.'”
Mudd, like Barhorst, was a member of Jackie Sherrill’s famed “12th Man” kickoff team, made up of all walk-ons who did nothing but cover kickoffs. Notre Dame had Rudy. The Aggies had an entire platoon of Rudys. The group, started in 1983 in Sherrill’s second year in College Station, was known for its reckless abandon. And all the focus leading up to the Cotton Bowl was on how they would fare against Brown.
“Being that I was born and raised here in Dallas, the Cotton Bowl was such a big game at that time, A&M was a pretty hot football team, it was really the showdown of all showdowns,” Brown tells the SEC Network in 2022 in “No Experience Required,” a documentary about the squad. “The legend of the 12th Man at that time, being that they were all walk-on football players, was amazing. I can remember because we watched those guys a lot on film getting ready for that game, and it was hard to believe that none of those kids were scholarship football players.”
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SECN examines the 12th Man in ‘No Experience Required’
SEC Storied: No Experience Required, debuting Nov. 24 on SEC Network, tells the story of Texas A&M’s “12th Man” kick coverage team made up entirely of walk-ons.
It’s that contrast that made this game memorable. It was a place where a walk-on playing the last game of his football career could chase down a Heisman Trophy winner from one of the most decorated programs in history. It’s why Barhorst would become a cult legend at Texas A&M, and why he says that lesson of perseverance went on to propel him to a wildly successful career in business.
“That play was the most popular play in 12th Man history,” said Lyn McDonald, a former member of the walk-on kickoff team who is now a sports psychiatrist in San Antonio.
And what, exactly, did Barhorst do that became the most famous moment in the history of one of the most famous college football traditions?
He took Tim Brown’s towel.
WHEN THE AGGIES and Irish meet Aug. 31 for just the sixth time, Nana Boadi-Owusu, a walk-on from Arlington, Texas, will wear No. 12, a Texas A&M student running down the field on kickoffs. Just like in 1988, he’ll face perhaps the nation’s best kick returner, Jayden Harrison, a Marshall transfer who took two back for scores last season when he was the only FBS player to average more than 30 yards per return with at least 20 chances.
Boadi-Owusu will get the start in the 41st season of the tradition. There are several full-time students chosen as members of the 12th Man roster each year, each wearing No. 12, and it’s a big deal to the Aggies. Even in the NIL era, with every individual number available, 87% of jersey sales last week were for the No. 12, according to the school.
“Being able to represent that number is a big honor,” Boadi-Owusu said. “We’ve got 70,000 [students] backing us, and then Aggies all over the world.”
And none of this might have happened if it wasn’t for a cadet.
Starting in 1907, the Aggies built a giant bonfire on campus every season that was lit before the Texas game, signaling their “burning desire” to beat the Longhorns. In fall 1982, James Fuqua, a member of the Texas A&M Corps of Cadets, was at the bonfire site, pondering the football team’s future along with several other student leaders of the project.
After Tom Wilson was fired with a 17-17 record over his three full seasons, Texas A&M hired Sherrill, the brash young coach who had coached Dan Marino and went 33-1 in his final three seasons at Pitt, signing him to the first coaching contract in college football history that totaled more than $1 million.
“They paid a lot of money for him,” Fuqua said. “We wanted to know if he’s just going to be another coach passing through or going to be somebody who actually took on the spirit of the school?”
Good question, Fuqua’s friends said. Why don’t you go ask him?
“All of a sudden, this kid burst through the door,” Sherrill said. “He just walked by the secretary and walked into my office and said, ‘Do you want to be the Aggie coach? Or do you want to be just another Aggie coach?'”
“I told him, ‘Sure, I want to be the Aggie coach,'” Sherrill said. “He said, ‘Well, follow me.'”
Fuqua escorted the coach around campus, teaching a crash course in Aggie traditions. At the bonfire site, Sherrill was floored by the dedication of thousands of students working through the night. He became a regular. One night, the crane hoisted him up ostensibly to see the top of the log stack, but it instead left him dangling in the night sky for students to laugh at while the crane operator went to get a cup of coffee. When Sherrill returned to ground level, he was playing cards in a shack built by the students when a propane stove exploded. “And nobody flinched,” he said.
“You going to bid, or you going to play?” Fuqua recalls a voice asking Sherrill through the smoke. “At that point, Jackie thought we were crazy.”
Back in the office, Sherrill kicked around a wild idea with his staff. What if he took a group of these Corps guys and taught them to cover kickoffs? Surely he could find 10 good ones out of tens of thousands of devoted Aggies. His defensive coordinator, R.C. Slocum, couldn’t believe his ears.
“Are you sure you didn’t fall off that stack?” Slocum asked Sherrill.
Undeterred, Sherrill moved ahead with the idea, opening it up to all students, and placed an ad in The Battalion, the student newspaper.
“Persons interested in trying out for the Twelfth Man Kickoff Team need to report to the Kyle Field Dressing Room on Monday, Feb. 21, at 5 p.m. No prior experience required.” Two hundred and fifty-two students showed up.
BY 1987, THE 12th Man kickoff team was famous. National news did features on it. It landed a six-page Sports Illustrated spread before its debut, which came against Cal in its first kick return since The Play, when it scored while the band was on the field against Stanford. Three members of that first squad stopped Dwight Garner at the Cal 16-yard line, and Kyle Field went nuts.
Sherrill’s hope of uniting the football team and the nation’s largest student section had become a reality. Members of the kickoff team became stars on campus and at the Dixie Chicken. The scholarship players, who were initially annoyed at the try-hard nature of their 20 new teammates, came to respect that they went so hard as glorified blocking dummies in practice and still spent an extra hour each day just covering kicks.
The walk-on kickoff team handled duties at home games, because most teams didn’t bring entire squads of walk-ons on the road, so scholarship players would resume their roles at away games.
Eventually, the walk-ons started to travel, including for the big rivalry game against Texas. But Sports Illustrated did the math after the first season: The walk-ons allowed 13.1 yards per return at home. The varsity players gave up 18.8 on the road. “It’s kind of like you’re training the special ops to do one thing,” Sherrill said. “That’s what they were trained to do. And they were good.”
They faced dynamic players such as Texas’ Eric Metcalf, an All-American who went on to set the NFL record for the most kick returns for a touchdown with 12. Metcalf never had a return longer than 20 yards against them.
“Those guys competed every play,” Metcalf says in “No Experience Required.” “They kept me bottled up for four years.” The kickoff team was also good at getting under the skin of opponents. The players celebrated wildly after every tackle and waved white towels before kickoffs, which were — and still are — waved by fans in the stands.
Against Notre Dame in that Cotton Bowl, Chet Brooks knew they were the guys he needed. Brooks, a senior safety on the 1987 team, broke his leg in the Aggies’ 20-13 win over Texas in their regular-season finale. He was already a fan favorite for his style of play (“Chet would bring the wood,” his defensive coordinator, R.C. Slocum, said) and had coined the nickname for Slocum’s attacking defense: the “Wrecking Crew.”
On Jan. 1, 1988, Brooks was on crutches on the sideline of his final college football game, at the Cotton Bowl in his hometown. To make matters worse, it was his birthday.
Brooks played at Dallas Carter, a powerhouse program, while Brown was all-everything for a struggling Woodrow Wilson team across town that went just 4-25-1 in Brown’s three years as a starter. They never played against each other, but Brooks knew Brown’s history.
“He was one of those guys, man,” Brooks said. “That’s all you heard about was Tim Brown. He was the man coming out that year. His talent was undeniable.”
Now, returning as the Heisman Trophy winner, Brown was greeted as a hero.
“Everything was about how great Notre Dame was and all the billboards in town were, ‘Welcome home, Tim!'” Barhorst said. “We’re at a team lunch with both teams and Lou Holtz speaks and tells us how great Notre Dame is and the traditions and blah, blah, blah. We pretty much decided at that lunch we were going to kick their ass. This is our state, our town, and we’re treated like we’re the visiting team.”
They were already seething. And the 12th Man kickoff team was known for its desire to make its presence felt.
“They were going to sell out,” Slocum said. “There’s never been a kickoff team that covered any harder than those guys. There may have been some that had a few faster players, but in terms of effort of running down the field wide open, I’ve never seen a kickoff team that came down any harder, any more reckless than they did.”
But in this game, Sherrill hoped they’d keep it between the lines. He went to speak to the kickoff squad before the game.
“Hey guys, y’all are the banty roosters of college football,” Barhorst said Sherrill told them, asking them to tone it down. “I need a clean game today. We’re on national TV, you’re representing Texas A&M. I want you to play hard, but no fighting, none of your games.”
JUST TWO YEARS before, Texas A&M had earned its first Cotton Bowl berth since 1967. It broke through on the national stage, beating Auburn 36-16, including stopping that year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Bo Jackson, four straight times on the goal line to finish 10-2 and No. 6 nationally, its loftiest postseason ranking since Bear Bryant finished No. 5 in 1956.
But the Aggies still had won only 10 games four times in the program’s 83-year history. Another game against another Heisman winner would test A&M’s standing among the country’s top programs.
Brown appeared as good as advertised, returning the opening kickoff 37 yards (one of the longest ever given up at that point by the kickoff squad), and then catching 6 passes for 105 yards in the first half, including a 17-yard touchdown. But Slocum changed his defensive approach in the second half, and Brown did not catch any of the three passes targeted his way the rest of the game. By the third quarter, A&M led 28-10 and Brooks, who liked to jaw at opponents, could sense Brown’s frustration. He pointed out Brown’s monogrammed towel, made for him by teammate Cedric Figaro’s girlfriend, with the letter T and No. 81 on it.
“You got to have a towel, the long towel that comes out to your knee, absolutely,” Brown says in the documentary. “It’s old-fashioned, has no other value to your game at all. It’s all about how good do you look when you pass that mirror in the locker room? You give yourself a thumbs up, a thumbs down, and if you didn’t have a towel, you definitely got a thumbs down.”
Brooks pointed it out to Barhorst, telling him if they could get Brown’s towel, they’d send him over the edge.
“Something about that sweet towel, that’s what we called them. That’s your sweet towel. That’s what make you look sweet,” Brooks said, saying it’s the 1980s slang equivalent to “drip” now. “I didn’t realize he had his sweet towel encrusted with all kinds of jewelry and stuff. He had it really bedazzled out. I just knew taking his towel from him was going to piss him off and get him off his game. I told my guys, listen, it’s my birthday. Go get that sweet towel for me for my birthday present. And they lost their mind.”
Early in the fourth quarter, the Aggies got a chance to kick off leading 28-10 with 8:32 left.
“Now it’s the 12th Man, and boy do they want a piece of the Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Brown,” Brent Musberger said on the broadcast before a cut to an interview with kickoff team member John Burnett.
“Playing for A&M is something I dreamed about my whole life. In my last game of the season, having an opportunity — and all the other guys I know — to get a lick on the Heisman Trophy winner would just cap off the season for all of us.”
The kick is short. Brown catches it, heads to his left, then turns upfield and looks like he has an alley to break off a run. But then Barhorst comes in from Brown’s right, dives and drags him down. While they’re on the ground, Barhorst pulls the sweet towel loose.
“It took the guy two or three tugs,” Brown said after the game. “I mean, one guy was laying on me, holding me down and the other guy was tugging on it. But when he got it, I heard him say, ‘I got it!'”
Barhorst stuffs the towel down his pants to hide it. He gets up and starts jogging to the sideline, looking for Brooks. But Brown turns on his speed, heads straight for Barhorst, jumps on his back and takes him down. While on the ground, he rips the towel away.
Musberger, who misidentifies Barhorst as freshman William Thomas, who also wore No. 11, is still trying to figure out what’s going on. So are Holtz and Sherrill. But Barhorst and Brooks both know. “I’m thinking, ‘Holy s—, I’ve cleared both benches,'” Barhorst said. “I crawl out of my hands and knees and act like I don’t know what’s going on because I don’t want Coach Sherrill, in my last college game, screaming at me. I’ve started this fight on national TV. Luckily he was mad at Brown, not mad at me.”
Brooks, too, played dumb, limping away from the action.
“Soon as I saw Tim chasing him, I just started easing down to the other end, whistling,” Brooks said, laughing. “I wouldn’t have nothing to do with it.”
Brown, who was already dealing with a muscle issue in his back, did not get thrown out, but he did get a 15-yard penalty. He did not return, eventually leaving the game early and heading back to the locker room. The Aggies won the game 35-10.
“The last we saw Tim, he was walking up the ramp in the Cotton Bowl,” Sherrill said.
BARHORST FIRED UP the Aggies with his antics, but Musberger never called his name. The play is immortalized in a painting, called “Led By The Spirit” (a nod to the school song, “The Spirit of Aggieland”), but, in it, his name on his jersey is spelled B-A-R-N-H-O-R-S-T.
Years later, at a reunion for the 12th Man kickoff team, Barhorst’s own son was serving as the photographer at the event and asked an attendee for his favorite moment in the team’s history.
“When Bartowski took Tim Brown’s towel,” he said.
“But what that all tells you is that the 12th Man guys all played for the name on the front,” Barhorst said. “We weren’t really playing for the guy on the back. That’s really what drove us in those games playing at a level you weren’t really supposed to play at.”
Still, Barhorst said there isn’t a day that goes by that he isn’t asked about it, saying sometimes it’s five times a day.
Slocum has his own memento of the incident. He was a fan of Brown’s dating back to Brown’s time in high school in Dallas, when Slocum was his area recruiter and tried in vain to convince Brown to come to College Station, even sitting in the stands and attending Brown’s high school basketball games.
First, he had to find a way to stop Brown, and did. Then, just 10 days after the fracas, he was one of Brown’s coaches. Sherrill and Slocum served as coaches in the Japan Bowl, a college all-star game in Tokyo, and Brown was on their team. Slocum arrived back in Texas with an ironic souvenir.
“I got a towel that he gave me over there,” Slocum said, describing a long white linen with Japanese writing on it above gold stitching that says “TIM BROWN, UNIV. OF NOTRE DAME, JAPAN BOWL.” A sweet towel.
It hangs in a frame on the wall of Slocum’s house in College Station all these years later, which even came as a surprise to Brown.
“Wow!” Brown wrote via email, his only response to questions for this story. “I have more questions than I do answers. Maybe Coach can fill in the blanks.”
It’s a bit of a mystery to Slocum, too.
“I don’t know how I got it, either,” Slocum said, laughing. “We joked about the Cotton Bowl towel over there. I spent a week with him. We had a great time.”
In the frame, Slocum also stuck a card he got later, from a 1991 set of cards that had a “Heisman Hero” series. Brown’s card is autographed, with the inscription, “To Texas A&M and the 12th Man.”
The programs went in different directions the next season. Sherrill resigned following a 7-5 record amid an NCAA investigation into improper benefits, opting to step aside as to not be a distraction, with Slocum replacing him. Brown was drafted with the sixth overall pick of the 1988 NFL draft, and Notre Dame figured out how to replace him with a freshman receiver named Rocket Ismail who led the country in kickoff returns, as Holtz led the Irish to a 12-0 season and a national championship. Holtz exacted his revenge on the Aggies in consecutive years, beating them in the 1993 and 1994 Cotton Bowls.
The all-walk-on kickoff team survived until 1990, when Texas Tech’s Rodney Blackshear scored on a return for the first time in seven seasons, and Slocum opted to keep just one representative, wearing No. 12, alongside a cast of scholarship players without having to practice with two separate kickoff coverage teams any longer.
“The concept is great to represent the student body,” Slocum said. “We’re going to give that guy No. 12, and he’s going to represent the student body and we’ll take him wherever we go: home, away, bowl game, whatever. We’ll have the 12th Man with us.”
The tradition continues, with Mike Elko taking over as the seventh coach since Sherrill to keep it alive.
Boadi-Owusu, an engineering major, fell in love with Kyle Field on a campus visit while his parents, immigrants from Ghana, were driving his family on a visit to NASA near Houston. Boadi-Owusu said he felt a connection with Kyle Field when he saw it and hoped one day to return. “It hasn’t really hit me yet that I’m the 12th Man,” Boadi-Owusu said. “When I put on that jersey and I see myself in the mirror, then I get to come out to over 100,0000 people in Kyle, I think that’s what was going to hit me like, ‘Oh yeah, this is real life.’ It’s just going to be so surreal.”
McDonald, the sports psychologist, said the 12th Man tradition lives on because of the contrast in their roles to those of highly recruited scholarship players. “Fans see a kickoff as a mundane process and a boring play, but it was kind of our life,” he said. “It was an event. It’s about being an underdog … and kicking ass when people think you can’t.”
Thanks to a series of events, including a confident cadet, a coach who became the Aggie coach, an injured player with a birthday wish and a scrappy walk-on who would become a cult hero, the 12th Man has endured as one of the best traditions in college football.
“I wish I’d been smart enough to have known how important it was to the student body and to the old Ags,” Sherrill said. “Today I do, but when I did it back then, I didn’t know how important it was.”
McDonald proudly displays the evidence of his shining moment as a 12th Man, a photo on his wall of his one appearance in a college football game, running down during an eventual touchback against SMU in which he swears he “leveled people left and right.” He got his one play, too.
Boadi-Owusu will get his chance against Notre Dame. And you never know. One play could change his life.
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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