‘Inevitable things will go wrong’ when prisoners freed early, chief prisons inspector warns
It is “inevitable that things will go wrong” when prisoners are freed early to try to alleviate prison overcrowding, the Chief Inspector of Probation has said.
About 5,500 prisoners in England and Wales are expected to be released earlier than planned in September and October as part of the temporary scheme.
It does not apply to those convicted of sex offences, domestic abuse, terrorism or some violent offences.
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Those released early will serve the rest of their sentence under the “strictest licensing conditions” and will be tagged, the government has said.
But Martin Jones, who became Chief Inspector of Probation in March, said there are “no risk-free options available”.
He said the eight weeks the government has given the probation service to plan for the scheme has given it “at least a fighting chance of getting this right”.
However, he warned the number of offenders being released means some could reoffend when they should have been in jail.
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He told The Times: “I think it’s inevitable, being realistic about it, that things will go wrong. I wish we could live in a perfect world where that doesn’t happen.
“What I think you should start to see, at least, is that if people have to focus on those, that they start to identify where things go wrong, and they draw lessons from that quite quickly.
“I also think there’s a little bit of a numbers game to some extent, you’re rolling the dice all the time in relation to serious further offences.
“You know, ultimately, if you release thousands of people, a number of those cases will ultimately, sadly, there will be things that will go wrong.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: “The new government inherited a justice system in crisis and has been forced into taking difficult but necessary action to ensure we can keep locking up dangerous criminals and protect the public.
“Anyone released into Home Detention Curfew is risk-assessed, faces the strictest licensing conditions and must be tagged.”
Sky News reported earlier in the week there are only 100 spaces left in male prisons across England and Wales.
It is the closest the system has come to running out of places.
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Shortly after becoming prime minister earlier this summer, Sir Keir Starmer approved plans for some prisoners to be let out after serving 40% of their sentence – rather than the usual 50% – which will come into force on 10 September.
In the wake of the nationwide riots after the Southport stabbings, the Ministry of Justice also activated Operation Early Dawn, allowing defendants waiting for a court appearance to be held in police cells for longer until space is available.
But last weekend’s events, including Notting Hill Carnival, have pushed capacity even closer to the maximum.
HMP Fosse Way in Leicester was opened in June 2023. Pic: PA
Sir Keir said on Wednesday, during a visit to Berlin, more prisons will be built to manage overcrowding once the government gets its “hands on the planning laws”.
He said the lack of new prisons is one of the reasons for the current capacity crisis.
The prime minister, a former director of public prosecutions, previously said the decision to release prisoners early “goes against the grain of everything I’ve ever done”.
Labour has repeatedly accused the Conservatives of neglecting the justice system during their time in office, saying prisons were at risk of overflowing.
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Politics
Sir Keir Starmer set for Donald Trump trade talks as PM walks diplomatic line between EU allies and US on Gaza
Gaza and transatlantic trade are set to dominate talks between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer when the pair meet in Scotland on Monday.
Downing Street said the prime minister would discuss “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.
Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.
Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.
Sir Keir has tried to forge close personal ties with the president, frequently praising his actions on the world stage despite clear foreign policy differences between the US and UK.
The approach seemed to pay off in May when Mr Trump announced the agreement of a trade deal with the UK that would see several tariffs lowered.
The two leaders are expected to discuss this agreement when they meet, with the prime minister likely to press the president for a lowering of outstanding tariffs on imports such as steel.
Prior to the visit, the White House said the talks would allow them to “refine the historic US-UK trade deal”.
Extracting promises from the president on the Middle East may be harder though.
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Despite some reports that Mr Trump is growing frustrated with Israel, there is a clear difference in tone between the US and its Western allies.
As he did over the Ukraine war, Sir Keir will have to walk a diplomatic line between the UK’s European allies and the White House.
On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his country would formally recognise a Palestinian state in September, the first member of the G7 to do so.
That move was dismissed by Mr Trump, who said it “doesn’t carry any weight”.
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The UK, French and German leaders spoke over the weekend and agreed to work together on the “next phase” in Gaza that would see transitional governance and security arrangements put in place, alongside the large-scale delivery of aid.
Under pressure from members of his own party and cabinet to follow France and signal formal recognition of Palestine, Sir Keir has gradually become more critical of Israel in recent months.
On Friday, the prime minister said “the starvation and denial of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, the increasing violence from extremist settler groups, and Israel’s disproportionate military escalation in Gaza are all indefensible”.
Government sources say UK recognition is a matter of “when, not if”, however, it’s thought Downing Street wants to ensure any announcement is made at a time when it can have the greatest diplomatic impact.
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Cabinet ministers will be convened in the coming days, during the summer recess, to discuss the situation in Gaza.
The UK has also been working with Jordan to air drop supplies, after Israel said it would allow foreign countries to provide aid to the territory.
President Trump’s trip to Scotland comes ahead of his second state visit to the UK in September.
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Downing Street says Ukraine will also likely be discussed in the meeting with both men reflecting on what can be done to force Russia back to the negotiating table.
After the meeting at Turnberry, the prime minister will travel with the president to Aberdeen for a private engagement.
Mr Trump is also expected to meet Scottish First Minister John Swinney while in the country.
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