How IS-K group linked to Taylor Swift terror plot is increasing in strength and influence
The international influence of Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), a branch of the Islamic State, has been on the rise.
The group has been linked to numerous attacks and planned attacks in 2024. The highest profile plots include a deadly attack on a concert hall in Moscow, foiled plans to disrupt three Taylor Swift concerts in Austria, and twin bombings in Iran.
Sky News has analysed new data from the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) that shows a sharp rise in propaganda produced by the group, which is being disseminated in more languages than ever.
As the amount of propaganda has increased, reaching audiences far beyond Afghanistan‘s borders, so has the number of international attacks and planned attacks, posing a growing threat to Western security.
German officials recently said they have foiled planned IS-K attacks, as authorities in the country remain on high alert. In July, French officials said they uncovered several terrorist plots targeting the 2024 Paris Olympics. In the weeks leading up to the Games, IS-K’s propaganda channels had published several posters inciting supporters to attack various locations in Paris during the event.
An IS-K poster inciting violence at the Paris Olympics
Experts expect this trend of incitement to continue gaining traction and the UN has warned of IS-K’s heightened threat levels across Europe.
“The group is considered the greatest external terrorist threat to the continent,” Vladimir Voronkov, the under-secretary-general for the UN’s Office of Counter-Terrorism, said in a briefing in August.
The Afghan wing of Islamic State (IS), commonly known as IS-K, ISIS-K or ISKP, has emerged as the terrorist organisation’s most globally-minded affiliate.
CIR has also been observing a gradual diversification of IS-K’s media and propaganda, according to Ben den Braber, head of research for Afghan Witness, the team behind the new data.
“Recently, especially since the uptick in propaganda, we’ve seen a bigger focus on Central Asia and on Europe,” he said.
In addition to targeting its core audiences in South and Central Asia, specifically Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the group has been gradually disseminating media in an increasing number of languages.
One recent poster produced by the group’s in-house media outlet announced the broadcast of their content in Urdu, adding to the array of languages it already publishes including Pashto, Persian, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, Turkish, Azerbaijani, English and Arabic.
Poster shared by one of IS-K’s English-language propaganda outlets
Global ambitions
IS-K first emerged in 2015, when their primary focus was to gain territory in Afghanistan to help establish a caliphate, or a territory controlled by a single IS ruler.
The K in its name refers to Khorasan, a province in Afghanistan that historically encompasses parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
After US troops pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban regained power, the number of attacks and influence by IS-K inside the country has been dwindling, according to data gathered by CIR’s Afghan Witness team.
The group has increased its strength since the US withdrawal and ramped up international operations, despite the Taliban’s campaign to crackdown on IS-K in Afghanistan.
“The threat posed by [IS-K] has grown with significant terrorist attacks outside of Afghanistan, notably in Moscow on 22 March, and with increased threat levels in Europe and other areas,” the UN Security Council recently wrote in a report.
The data backs this up. There’s been a significant uptick in attacks and arrests of IS-K-linked individuals outside Afghanistan since 2022.
“The really interesting piece of this is not that the Taliban’s been able to limit attacks in Afghanistan,” said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, a New York-based security and intelligence firm.
“It’s been the adaptability of IS,” he added. “They made that transition seamlessly. And they’ve stuck with it.”
There was a noticeable shift in IS-K’s propaganda narratives after the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan, said Dr Amira Jadoon, assistant professor of political science at Clemson University and the author of a forthcoming book about IS-K.
“There’s still the vilification of the Taliban. But we see a shift towards talking about different issues and grievances of different communities,” she said.
Taylor Swift performs on stage in Edinburgh during her Eras Tour. Pic: PA
Aside from focusing their content on successful attacks and capitalising on local issues in key countries like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to rally supporters, the group publishes propaganda that touches on wider global conflicts.
This is seen by scholars as a way for IS-K to capitalise on the feeling of hostility in the Muslim world, and to take advantage of anti-Western sentiment, exacerbated by the war in Gaza.
“The goal became here to show how [they] are such a broad platform that anyone can join,” said Dr Jadoon.
Shift in strategy
In August, a disrupted plan to attack three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna was the latest high-profile international plot linked to IS-K. Austrian authorities say the main suspect had pledged allegiance to the group and had been consuming and sharing propaganda online.
The suspects in the foiled Vienna attacks intended to kill “tens of thousands” of people, according to the US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
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Swift terror suspect image released
Instances like this and the thwarted attacks in Paris during the Olympics, for example, make up a fraction of the planned attacks in Europe this year, which experts estimate to have been at least half a dozen to date.
Crocus City Hall following an attack on the concert venue outside Moscow. Pic: Reuters
The group is also responsible for several successful plots this year.
In March, gunmen attacked and set fire to Crocus City Hall, a concert venue in Moscow. The incident left nearly 140 people dead. Four men of Tajik origin were arrested.
While IS-K didn’t directly claim responsibility, they posted a video in one of their channels from one of the attackers’ phones while they conducted the rampage, and have implied in other posts that they were the ones behind the attack.
The violence in Moscow was also preceded by a string of anti-Russian messages on IS-K channels online.
“The propaganda is somewhat of a foreshadowing of the area of interest for the organisation,” said Mr den Braber of CIR.
After the attack, the group published a flyer with text that read “After Moscow, Who is the Next?”, along with images and the names of various large European cities.
A propaganda poster shared on IS-K online channels in April after the Moscow attack
At this stage, IS and its Afghan branch are trying to gain prominence on the international stage by generating media attention to recruit supporters and, crucially, raise money, according to experts.
In January, the group was linked to double suicide bombings at a memorial service in Kerman, Iran, which killed over 100 people, and a gun attack at a church in Istanbul.
“What they’re after is the media exposure. Why? Because another thing that’s changed in recent years is that IS lost its big donors,” said Dr Antonio Giustozzi, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Members of his research team are part of several IS-K Telegram channels and WhatsApp groups, and were told that the Iran attack helped IS-K raise quite a lot of money from donors, often sent using crypto.
An IS-K Telegram post from April calling for fundraising intimates the group was behind the Moscow, Iran and Istanbul attacks. Pic: Lucas Webber/X
“Their goal is to kill large numbers of civilians to garner attention,” said Mr Clarke, who runs research at The Soufan Centre.
“These kinds of terror plots are really intended to generate momentum for the group to make it a household name once again, and with that comes recruitment and donations.
“Taylor Swift’s arguably the most recognisable and famous pop star in the world. If they were successful in attacking that concert, similar to the way the Ariana Grande Manchester bombing took place, ISIS would have enjoyed weeks, if not months of unfettered propaganda, which helps buoy the group and give them momentum.”
Even foiled plots like the planned attacks on the Swift concerts in Austria, he said, are a win.
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The Happel stadium after Taylor Swift’s three concerts in Vienna in August were cancelled. Pic: Reuters
Hard to track
As well as distributing content through their own media, content is shared widely on social media platforms like Meta, X and encrypted messaging apps like Telegram.
Experts say that IS-K encourages its supporters around the world to create their own propaganda that aligns with its position.
IS-K appears to be inciting attacks from afar. A lot of propaganda calls on self-radicalised supporters through online channels to carry out unsophisticated plots against civilians, rather than planning directed attacks, which are defined by sending highly trained individuals to hit specific locations.
“Self-radicalisation is one of the key threats with all this propaganda that they put out there,” said Dr Jadoon, who’s authoring a book about IS-K.
‘Incited’ or inspired attacks, Jadoon says, can be very hard to track. “If someone is just absorbing content and not really engaging in any way, then it makes it harder to detect,” she added.
“With directed attacks, there are more opportunities for law-enforcement to detect unusual activity on groups. There’s more chance there will be a paper trail.”
Another obstacle in tracking IS-K content and potential plots is the fact that social media platforms have strict censorship rules.
Mr den Braber says content moderation is the biggest difficulty for his team in keeping on top of different communication channels, adding that old IS-K chat rooms are taken down and new ones pop up every day.
Future plots
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Counter-terrorism experts say Western intelligence has a good penetration of these online networks and is disrupting them frequently and early.
But some warn that because agencies in the West are overburdened, something could slip through the cracks.
“There’s so much going on in the world so there are gaps in intelligence and law enforcement monitoring,” said Lucas Webber, senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, a UN initiative that tracks terrorist activities online.
“It’s going to be difficult to prevent one or more attacks slipping through at this point.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The United Nations has condemned airdrops on Gaza, warning they risk killing the starving Palestinians they are intended to help.
Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel parachuted aid packages into the territory for the first time in months at the weekend amid claims a third of the population has not eaten for days.
But Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has said they “will not reverse the deepening starvation” and often do more harm than good.
‘Make or break’ as starvation looms; Middle East latest
“They are expensive, inefficient & can even kill starving civilians,” he wrote in a statement on X.
What is an airdrop – and why are they dangerous?
There are several ways humanitarian agencies and international allies can deliver aid to regions in need – by land, by sea, or by air.
While parachuting in supply packages from planes may look impressive, airdrops are “fraught with problems”, Sky correspondent in Jordan Sally Lockwood says, and often used as a “desperate last resort”.
“Foreign nations know airdrops are a deeply flawed way of delivering aid,” she says.
“Palestinian sources tell us the aid that’s been dropped so far is not reaching the most vulnerable. They are an attempt to get something to a few – often viewed as a desperate last resort. Gaza is at that point.”
A plane drops aid over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
Air drops land over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
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Military analyst Sean Bell says that delivering aid by air is ideally done when planes can land on a runway – but Gaza’s only landing strip in Rafah was shut down in 2021.
The alternative is “very dangerous”, he warns. “Aircraft flying relatively low and slow over a warzone isn’t very clever. When these parcels hit the ground, there’s a significant danger of them hitting people.”
People in Gaza scramble for aid on Saturday. Pic: @ibrahim.st7 via Storyful
Crucially, they can only deliver a fraction of what lorries can.
“The really big issue is aircraft can only deliver one truckload of aid. Gaza needs 500 truckloads a day, so it’s 0.2% of the daily need,” Bell adds.
They also risk falling into the wrong hands and ending up on the black market.
“Some of it has been looted by gangs and is on the black market already,” Lockwood says.
Air drops land in northern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: AP
Why are they happening now?
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March, reopening some aid centres in May, but with restrictions they said were designed to stop goods being stolen by Hamas militants.
Israeli authorities control the only three border crossings to the strip: Kerem Shalom in the south, Crossing 147 in the centre, and Erez to the north.
Since the current conflict with Hamas began in October 2023, humanitarian agencies and world leaders have repeatedly accused Israel of not allowing enough deliveries through.
Mr Lazzarini says the UN has “the equivalent of 6,000 trucks” in neighbouring Jordan and Egypt “waiting for the green light to get into Gaza”.
Israel says it has commissioned a “one-week scale-up of aid”, having conducted its own airdrops on Saturday.
In a statement over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Forces said it will work with the UN and other aid organisations to ensure aid is delivered but no more details were given.
Meanwhile on Sunday, it began daily 10-hour pauses in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 133 Palestinians had died of malnutrition by then, including 87 children.
Doctors Without Borders warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are malnourished.
Israel says there is no famine in Gaza.
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Sky’s Sally Lockwood on the runway in Jordan ahead of Gaza aid airdrop
What are in the airdrops and who is behind them?
Air packages are largely being delivered by C-130 planes. Jordan is reported to be using 10 and the UAE eight.
They can carry eight pallets of goods each, weighing around eight tonnes in total, according to Lockwood, who is on the runway at Jordan’s King Abdullah II airbase.
There are no medical supplies in the packages, she says, only dried food, rice, flour, and baby formula.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will help with airdrops – but no British aircraft have been seen in Jordan so far.
He will discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump during talks in Scotland on Monday.
The RAF delivered 110 tonnes of aid across 10 drops last year as part of a Jordanian-led international coalition – but it is not clear what level of support will be offered this time.
World
Israel-Hamas war: ‘Vast amounts of aid needed to stave off catastrophic health crisis in Gaza,’ UN warns
Israel has agreed to support a “one-week scale-up of aid” in Gaza – but the United Nations has warned more action is needed to “stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis”.
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made the remarks as Israel began limited pauses in fighting across three areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day to address the worsening humanitarian situation.
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza’s population from the start of March. It then reopened aid centres with new restrictions in May, but said the supply had to be controlled to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas militants.
A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamas had stolen aid from UN agencies.
Images of emaciated Palestinian children have led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, including by allies who are calling for an end to the war.
Mr Fletcher said one in three people in Gaza “hasn’t eaten for days” and “children are wasting away”.
He added: “We welcome Israel’s decision to support a one-week scale-up of aid, including lifting customs barriers on food, medicine and fuel from Egypt and the reported designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.
“Some movement restrictions appear to have been eased today, with initial reports indicating that over 100 truckloads were collected.
“This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis. Across the UN agencies and humanitarian community, we are mobilised to save as many lives as we can.”
An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces said yesterday that it is halting military operations in Muwasi, Deir al Balah and Gaza City daily from 10am to 8pm local time (8am to 6pm UK time) until further notice.
Combat operations have continued outside of this 10-hour window. Health officials in Gaza said Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians overnight into Sunday morning, including 26 seeking aid.
In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.
A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused
Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.
While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in the territory, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.
Palestinian sources confirmed that aid had begun dropping in northern parts of the territory.
Palestinians in Beit Lahia carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
Sabreen Hasson, a Palestinian mother who travelled to an aid point near the Zikim crossing to collect supplies, said: “I came to get flour for my children because they have not tasted flour for more than a week, and thank God, God provided me with a kilo of rice with difficulty.”
But Samira Yahda, who was in Zawaida in central Gaza, said: “We saw the planes, but we didn’t see what they dropped… they said trucks would pass, but we didn’t see the trucks.”
Another Palestinian told the AP news agency that some people feared going out and having a box of aid fall on their children.
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25% of young children ‘now malnourished in Gaza’
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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza
Gaza is expected to be a focus during talks Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump in Scotland today.
Downing Street said Sir Keir will raise “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the US president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.
Reports also suggest the prime minister is planning to interrupt the summer recess and recall his cabinet to discuss the crisis on Tuesday.
Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.
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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’
Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.
Meanwhile the exiled head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al Hayya, has warned ceasefire negotiations with Israel were “meaningless under continued blockade and starvation”.
In a recorded speech, he added: “The immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.”
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Israel intercepts Gaza aid boat
During a meeting with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Mr Trump emphasised the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.
He said: “They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision.
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Starmer says UK will help drop aid to Gaza
“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said.
Mr Trump also repeated claims, without evidence, that Hamas was stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.
Israel has begun a pause in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the worsening humanitarian situation.
The IDF said it would halt fighting in three areas, Muwasi, Deir al-Balah and Gaza City, from 10am to 8pm local time until further notice, beginning today.
In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.
Palestinians carry aid supplies. Pic: Reuters
Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.
While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in Gaza, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.
Reports suggest aid has already been dropped into Gaza, with some injured after fighting broke out.
Pic: IDF
In other developments, Bob Geldof has accused Israeli authorities of “lying” about starvation in the territory – telling Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the IDF is “dangling food in front of starving, panicked, exhausted mothers”.
He told Sky News: “This month, up to now, 1,000 children or 1,000 people have died of starvation. I’m really not interested in what either of these sides are saying.”
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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza from the start of March. It then reopened aid centres with new restrictions in May, but said the supply had to be controlled to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas militants.
On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamas had stolen aid from UN agencies.
The IDF’s international spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, described such reports as “fake news” and said Hamas thefts have been “well documented”.
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Malnourished girl: ‘The war changed me’
Airdrops ‘expensive and inefficient’
It comes as the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said as of Saturday, 127 people have died from malnutrition-related causes, including 85 children.
They include a five-month-old girl who weighed less than when she was born, with a doctor at Nasser Hospital describing it as a case of “severe, severe starvation”.
Health workers have also been weakened by hunger, with some putting themselves on IV drips so they can keep treating badly malnourished patients.
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Aid waiting to be distributed in Gaza
On Friday, Israel said it would allow foreign countries to airdrop aid into Gaza – but the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has warned this will not reverse “deepening starvation”.
UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini described the method as “expensive” and “inefficient”, adding: “It is a distraction and screensmoke. A manmade hunger can only be addressed by political will.
“Lift the siege, open the gates and guarantee safe movements and dignified access to people in need.”
UNRWA has the equivalent of 6,000 trucks in Jordan and Egypt waiting for permission to enter Gaza, he added.
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PM says UK will help drop aid to Gaza
MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished, and said the lack of food and water on the ground was “unconscionable”.
The UN also estimates Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 people seeking food, the majority near the militarised distribution sites of the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
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In a statement on Friday, the IDF had said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians”, and reports of incidents at aid distribution sites were “under examination”.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has also previously disputed these deaths were connected with its organisation’s operations, with director Johnnie Moore telling Sky News: “We just want to feed Gazans. That’s the only thing that we want to do.”
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