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Labour is facing a drop off in confidence among business leaders amid plans for tax rises and improvements to workers’ rights, according to a survey.

The Institute of Directors (IoD) had noted a leap in optimism in July among its membership as the new government came to power.

But its latest economic confidence index showed a slump from a three-year high, falling into negative territory in August.

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Major indicators to show the biggest declines included business investment and employment.

Others to fall back were expectations for revenue, exports and wages.

Recent data has shown the UK economy to have the fastest economic growth in the G7 over the first half of the year.

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Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves have made securing growth the “top priority” but complain their plans are being complicated by a legacy £22bn black hole in the public finances.

“Tough choices” they have already announced, ahead of the 30 October budget, have included cutting winter fuel payments for all pensioners.

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Chancellor quizzed over tax rises

Critics argue the tough choices include caving in to union demands to avert strikes, racking up a £9bn bill across public sector pay awards.

Commentators widely expect hikes to wealth taxes, such as capital gains tax, in the budget as it would chime with Sir Keir’s warning last month that those with the broadest shoulders would face the greatest burden.

An Employment Rights Bill is also due to prohibit zero-hour contracts and ban so-called fire and rehire tactics.

One particular sector to raise fears of an own goal was energy.

Industry body Offshore Energies UK claimed government plans to increase a windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas producers would lead to a £12bn fall in revenue to the state, due to weaker production and investment.

The IoD survey findings represent a major turnaround in opinion.

Ms Reeves secured a strong relationship with business in the run up to the election as firms ran out of patience with the Conservatives, long complaining of a lack of communication and strategy.

IoD chief economist Anna Leach said of its findings: “It’s disappointing to see last month’s welcome uptick in business leader confidence snuffed out over the summer.

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Reeves’ black hole claim ‘not credible’

“It is notable that the sharpest drops in our economic measures are in investment and headcount expectations, whilst other measures have moved to a lesser degree, albeit in a likewise negative direction.

“The newsflow in recent weeks on employment rights and autumn tax rises has dented confidence in the environment for business in the UK.

“As we head into a busy autumn, we are calling on the government to take time to get policy design right for the long-term and deliver the stable tax and policy framework needed to drive business confidence and investment.

“Further clarity on the industrial strategy and the business tax roadmap, in conjunction with more progress in engaging with business on workers’ rights, would be welcome.”

The findings chime with warnings that the budget should not seek to rake in cash at the expense of the economy.

Former president of the CBI, the Cobra beer founder Lord Bilimoria, said fears of tax increases would spark an exodus.

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Economy could have crashed without winter fuel action, minister claims
Which tax hikes could Labour introduce?

He called on the government to concentrate on growth, calling any rise in capital gains tax “a short-sighted move”.

“Investors are not going to come here if you keep putting up taxes,” he told the Daily Mail.

“It will not bring in more money; in fact, money will fly from this country.”

His comments were echoed by lastminute.com co-founder Brent Hoberman, who told the newspaper it “does not make sense to scare off business investment”.

Watch Business Live with Ian King at 11.30am and 4.30pm on Sky News.

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EY partner in talks to become boss of new football regulator

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EY partner in talks to become boss of new football regulator

An expert in financial regulation at one of the big four accountancy firms is in talks to become the inaugural boss of English football’s powerful new watchdog.

Sky News has learnt that Richard Monks, a partner at EY, is the leading contender to become chief executive of the Independent Football Regulator (IFR).

The new body will be formally established once the Football Governance Bill receives Royal Assent, which is expected this month.

Mr Monks spent 18 years at the Financial Conduct Authority and its predecessor regulator, the Financial Services Authority, before becoming chair of the G20/OECD Taskforce for Consumer Financial Protection, according to his LinkedIn profile.

He became a partner at EY, where he focuses on financial regulation, in the autumn of 2022.

The prospective choice of a chief executive of the IFR with no professional experience of the football industry may spark alarm among club executives who will face an onerous new regulatory regime overseen by the IFR.

In recent weeks, football industry executives have circulated rumours that the IFR boss was likely to emerge from the professional services sector.

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It was unclear this weekend whether other candidates were vying with Mr Monks for the post.

The IFR has already been set up on a ‘shadow’ basis, with Martyn Henderson, former chief executive of the Sports Grounds Safety Authority, appointed in December 2023 as interim chief operating officer of the football watchdog.

The EY partner is understood to have held talks with David Kogan, the government’s preferred choice for the watchdog’s chairmanship but whose formal appointment has been delayed by an investigation sparked by his previous donations to Labour politicians.

William Shawcross, the commissioner for public appointments, is investigating the process through which Mr Kogan was recruited to the role, and is thought likely to produce his report in the coming weeks.

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, told MPs last month that she was delegating the final decision on Mr Kogan’s appointment to the sports minister.

Stuart Andrew, the shadow culture minister, said at the time: “The public has a right to know whether this was a fair and impartial process, or yet another case of political patronage disguised as due diligence.

“The decision to launch an inquiry is welcome [and] must include scrutiny of [Sir] Keir Starmer, his advisers, and whether any conflicts of interest were properly declared.”

If Mr Kogan’s appointment is ratified, the appointment of a chief executive would be a crucial step in paving the way for the most radical reforms to the supervision of English football in decades.

The legislation includes a new licensing regime for clubs, measures to ensure greater fan engagement and a backstop power allowing the IFR to impose a financial settlement on the Premier League in relation to distributions to English Football League clubs.

Revisions to the Bill have seen a requirement for the IFR to take decisions about club takeovers in the context of the government’s foreign and trade policy removed.

If Mr Monks does land the IFR chief executive’s post, ministers are likely to argue that his expertise as a regulator will balance Mr Kogan’s decades of experience as a negotiator of sports media rights deals.

Last year, Mr Kogan acted as the lead negotiator for the Women’s Super League and Championship on their latest five-year broadcasting deals with Sky – the immediate parent company of Sky News – and the BBC.

His current roles include advising the chief executives of CNN, the American broadcast news network, and The New York Times Company on talks with digital platforms about the growing influence of artificial intelligence on their industries.

The creation of the IFR was pledged by the last Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project in 2021.

Its establishment comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases with the Premier League over the club’s financial affairs.

The Premier League has also been keen to agree a long-delayed financial redistribution deal with the EFL before the regulator is formally launched.

Tentative talks between representatives of both factions failed to produce meaningful progress, however.

This weekend, EY declined to comment on Mr Monks’s behalf, while the Department for Culture, Media and Sport has been approached for comment.

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Ofwat could be scrapped in water reforms

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Ofwat could be scrapped in water reforms

An independent review of the water industry is to recommend sweeping changes to the way the sector is managed, including the potential replacement of Ofwat with a strengthened body combining economic and environmental regulation.

Former Bank of England governor Sir Jon Cunliffe will publish the findings of the Independent Water Commission on Monday, with stakeholders across the industry expecting significant changes to regulation to be at its heart.

The existing regulator Ofwat has been under fire from all sides in recent years amid rising public anger at levels of pollution and the financial management of water companies.

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Campaigners and politicians have accused Ofwat of failing to hold water operators to account, while the companies complain that its focus on keeping bills down has prevented appropriate investment in infrastructure.

In an interim report, published in June, Sir Jon identified the presence of multiple regulators with overlapping responsibilities as a key issue facing the industry.

While Ofwat is the economic regulator, the Environment Agency has responsibility for setting pollution standards, alongside the Drinking Water Inspectorate.

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Sir Jon’s final report is expected to include a recommendation that the government consider a new regulator that combines Ofwat’s economic regulatory powers with the water-facing responsibilities currently managed by the EA.

In his interim report, Sir Jon said options for reform ranged from “rationalising” existing regulation to “fundamental, structural options for integrating regulatory remits and functions”.

He is understood to have discussed the implications of fundamental reform with senior figures in industry and government in the last week as he finalised his report.

Environment Secretary Steve Reed is expected to launch a consultation on the proposals following publication of the commission report.

The commission is also expected to recommend a “major shift” in the model of economic regulation, which currently relies on econometric modelling, to a supervisory approach that takes more account of individual company circumstances.

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How water can teach Labour a much-needed lesson


Liz Bates

Liz Bates

Political correspondent

@wizbates

On Monday, the government’s long-awaited review into the UK’s water industry will finally report.

The expectation is that it will recommend sweeping changes – including the abolition of the regulator, Ofwat.

But frustrated customers of the water companies could rightly complain that the process of taking on this failing sector and its regulator has been slow and ineffective.

They may be forgiven for going further and suggesting that how Labour has dealt with water is symbolic of their inability to make an impact across many areas of public life, leaving many of their voters disappointed.

This is an industry that has been visibly and rapidly declining for decades, with the illegal sewage dumping and rotting pipes in stark contrast with the vast salaries and bonuses paid out to their executives.

It doesn’t take a review to see what’s gone wrong. Most informed members of the public could explain what has happened in a matter of minutes.

And yet, despite 14 years in opposition with plenty of time to put together a radical plan, a review is exactly what the government decided on before taking on Ofwat.

Month after month, they were asked if they believed the water industry regulator was fit for purpose despite the obvious disintegration on their watch. Every time the answer was ‘yes’.

As in so many areas of government, Labour, instead of acting, needed someone else to make the decision for them, meaning that it has taken over a year to come to the simple conclusion that the regulator is in fact, not fit for purpose.

As they enter their second year in office, maybe this can provide a lesson they desperately need to learn if they want to turn around their fortunes.

That bold decisions do not require months of review, endless consultations, or outside experts to endlessly analyse the problem.

They just need to get on with it. Voters will thank them.

Sir Jon has said the water industry requires long-term strategic planning and stability in order to make it attractive to “low-risk, low-return investors”.

The water industry has long complained that the current model, in which companies are benchmarked against a notional model operator, and penalised for failing to hit financial and environmental standards, risks a “doom loop”.

Thames Water, currently battling to complete an equity process to avoid falling into special administration, has said the imposition of huge fines for failing to meet pollution standards is one of the reasons it is in financial distress.

Publication of the Independent Commission report comes after the Environment Agency published figures showing that serious pollution incidents increased by 60% in 2024, and as Thames Water imposes a hosepipe ban on 15m customers.

Ofwat, Water UK and the Department for the Environment all declined to comment.

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Post Office Capture IT system conviction referred to Court of Appeal for first time

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Post Office Capture IT system conviction referred to Court of Appeal for first time

The first Post Office Capture conviction is to be sent to the Court of Appeal, Sky News understands, in a “breakthrough” moment in the IT scandal.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) has decided to refer the case of sub-postmistress Patricia Owen, who was convicted in 1998 of theft.

Mrs Owen was found guilty by a jury based on evidence from the faulty IT software Capture, which was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999, before the Horizon Post Office scandal.

Pat Owen and husband David
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Pat Owen, pictured here with her husband David, always maintained her innocence but died in 2003 with a criminal record

Pat Owen always maintained her innocence but died in 2003 with a criminal record before the wider Post Office scandal came to light.

It comes after Sky News revealed that a damning report into Capture, which could help overturn criminal convictions, had been unearthed after nearly 30 years.

The decision to refer the first-ever Capture case to the Court of Appeal has been made on the grounds that Mrs Owen’s prosecution was an “abuse of process”.

The development has been described by victims’ lawyer Neil Hudgell as “hugely pivotal”.

“The Court of Appeal don’t receive that many referrals that start at the CCRC, and most get turned away, so it’s a very high bar to even get cases from the CCRC to the Court of Appeal…”

“I think it will be a real shot in the arm to all the other Capture victims who are waiting for their cases to be determined by the CCRC.”

Mr Hudgell described the report found earlier this year – written by computer experts in 1998 and highly critical of Capture – as “significantly tipping the balance”.

Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/v with lawyer for victims of the Capture IT system, Neil Hudgell from Hudgell Solicitors
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Lawyer Neil Hudgell says development is ‘hugely pivotal’

Sky News found that the Post Office knew about the report at the time and continued to prosecute sub-postmasters based on Capture evidence.

Pat Owen always maintained her innocence but died in 2003 with a criminal record before the wider Post Office scandal came to light.

Her daughter Juliet Shardlow said she cried when she heard the news that her mother’s case would be referred to the Court of Appeal.

“I feel angry that she is not here because she died before her time… we will be there – we will be sitting there in that front row.

“I can’t put it into words because it’s still all a shock that we are where we are and that later this year, or next year, we might have what we set out to get… justice for her.”

Juliet Shardlow whose mother sub-postmistress Patricia Owen who was convicted in 1998 of theft
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Juliet Shardlow is seeking justice for her mother

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The CCRC is currently investigating 30 cases potentially related to the Capture software system.

Twenty-seven of those cases are now assigned to case review managers and under “active review”, with a further three cases in the preparatory stages.

The CCRC has described a “challenge” over determining “whether cases involved the use of Capture at the time of the alleged offences”.

In a letter written to Liam Byrne, chair of the Business and Trade Committee, and seen by Sky News, it said that information the Post Office has provided “does not, in most cases, show whether it was installed and in operation at the time of the alleged offending”.

It also mentioned that the Post Office is reviewing “a significant amount of data which may contain further information”.

A Post Office spokesperson said: “While it is not appropriate for us to comment on specific cases, we have been very concerned about the reported problems relating to the use of the Capture software, and we are sincerely sorry for past failings that have caused suffering to postmasters.

“We are determined that past wrongs are put right and continue to support the government’s work in this area as well as fully co-operate with the Criminal Cases Review Commission.”

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