A new political term, and a new reality for the Conservatives, as what’s left of the party regroups in Westminster and gets down to the business of picking a new leader.
On Monday, it was the turn of Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly to officially launch their campaigns ahead of the first knock-out round on Wednesday.
Their competing visions for the party are a window into how this race will shape up.
Those involved say the choice Conservative MPs and members make will determine whether the party has a shot of turning its devastating election loss into just one term out of office.
Look at the Labour working majority of 181 and the obvious answer seems to be that a rebuild is a two-term project at the very best.
But as both Badenoch and Cleverly supporters told me at their launch today, the Starmer support is wide but shallow, with the Labour leader garnering the support of 34% of voters (as opposed to 43% of the vote won by Tony Blair in 1997).
The two would-be leaders on Monday had very different pitches.
Badenoch is running on a ticket of “renewal” and used her speech to outline her principles – personal responsibility, citizenship, family, telling the truth – rather than going into policies.
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9:37
‘Kemi has Thatcher’s courage’
She pledged to tell “hard truths” as she declared that her former government “talked right but governed left, sounding like Conservatives but acting like Labour”.
“Government should do fewer things, but what it does, it should do with brilliance,” she said.
“We can’t just keep having the same policy arguments from the last parliament. We lost. We are not in power… we have to focus on renewal. The renewal of our party, our politics, our thinking.”
Cleverly, meanwhile, leaned into a policy platform.
He spoke about spending 3% on more on defence, bringing back the Rwanda scheme, cutting taxes, and shrinking the state, as he pitched himself as the ultra-loyalist former cabinet minister who could unite the party and use his experience in government to get the Tories ready for power once more.
At the heart of the debate, and the success or failure of the next iteration of the Conservative party, is whether MPs and members select a leader that doesn’t just win back voters lost to Reform by tacking right on immigration – (Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugenhadt are pledging to leave the ECHR in order to tackle the small boat crisis, something Cleverly argued is not necessary, and Badenoch says is not a priority), but also wins back the millions that drifted to Labour, the Lib Dems or stayed at home.
Badenoch is the bookies’ favourite, but around Westminster, seasoned political operatives say the contest is simply too hard to call.
Badenoch commanded the support of a number of high profile MPs today at her launch, such as former cabinet minister Claire Coutinho and ex-Treasury minister Laura Trott.
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6:51
General Election 2024 round-up
Cleverly only had four MPs at his event, which instead was filled with party members, with activists there telling me his undying loyalty to the party during difficult times had won plenty of support with the grassroots.
On Wednesday, one of the six will be eliminated from the race, with another candidate going the following week.
The remaining four will battle it out at the party conference at the end of the month before MPs whittle the four down to a final two for the party membership to choose between.
For a party badly battered in the last general election, they can at least take comfort that the man in No10 was written off when he took over from Jeremy Corbyn in 2020 as a Labour leader who would never be able to overturn Johnson’s 80-seat majority in one term.
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There are many reasons for this, from external pressures – be it the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine – to own goals and leadership failure – “Partygate”, Tory turmoil, and the chaotic premiership of Liz Truss.
But it was helped too by a leader that talked to the left during the leadership race, only to reset in the centre group and – in Starmer’s words – “put country before party” when he finally got his hands on the top job.
After learning the lessons of the election drubbing, the next Conservative leader might want to look at the Starmer playbook for clawing your party back to power too.
Flawed data has been used repeatedly to dismiss claims about “Asian grooming gangs”, Baroness Louise Casey has said in a new report, as she called for a new national inquiry.
The government has accepted her recommendations to introduce compulsory collection of ethnicity and nationality data for all suspects in grooming cases, and for a review of police records to launch new criminal investigations into historical child sexual exploitation cases.
Image: Baroness Louise Casey carried out the review. Pic: PA
The crossbench peer has produced an audit of sexual abuse carried out by grooming gangs in England and Wales, after she was asked by the prime minister to review new and existing data, including the ethnicity and demographics of these gangs.
In her report, she has warned authorities that children need to be seen “as children” and called for a tightening of the laws around the age of consent so that any penetrative sexual activity with a child under 16 is classified as rape. This is “to reduce uncertainty which adults can exploit to avoid or reduce the punishments that should be imposed for their crimes”, she added.
Baroness Casey said: “Despite the age of consent being 16, we have found too many examples of child sexual exploitation criminal cases being dropped or downgraded from rape to lesser charges where a 13 to 15-year-old had been ‘in love with’ or ‘had consented to’ sex with the perpetrator.”
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3:18
Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The peer has called for a nationwide probe into the exploitation of children by gangs of men.
She has not recommended another over-arching inquiry of the kind conducted by Professor Alexis Jay, and suggests the national probe should be time-limited.
The national inquiry will direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the inquiry’s “purpose is to challenge what the audit describes as continued denial, resistance and legal wrangling among local agencies”.
On the issue of ethnicity, Baroness Casey said police data was not sufficient to draw conclusions as it had been “shied away from”, and is still not recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators.
‘Flawed data’
However, having examined local data in three police force areas, she found “disproportionate numbers of men from Asian ethnic backgrounds amongst suspects for group-based child sexual exploitation, as well as in the significant number of perpetrators of Asian ethnicity identified in local reviews and high-profile child sexual exploitation prosecutions across the country, to at least warrant further examination”.
She added: “Despite reviews, reports and inquiries raising questions about men from Asian or Pakistani backgrounds grooming and sexually exploiting young white girls, the system has consistently failed to fully acknowledge this or collect accurate data so it can be examined effectively.
“Instead, flawed data is used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’ as sensationalised, biased or untrue.
“This does a disservice to victims and indeed all law-abiding people in Asian communities and plays into the hands of those who want to exploit it to sow division.”
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3:07
From January: Grooming gangs: What happened?
The baroness hit out at the failure of policing data and intelligence for having multiple systems which do not communicate with each other.
She also criticised “an ambivalent attitude to adolescent girls both in society and in the culture of many organisations”, too often judging them as adults.
‘Deep-rooted failure’
Responding to Baroness Casey’s review, Ms Yvette Cooper told the House of Commons: “The findings of her audit are damning.
“At its heart, she identifies a deep-rooted failure to treat children as children. A continued failure to protect children and teenage girls from rape, from exploitation, and serious violence.
She added: “Baroness Casey found ‘blindness, ignorance, prejudice, defensiveness and even good but misdirected intentions’ all played a part in this collective failure.”
Ms Cooper said she will take immediate action on all 12 recommendations from the report, adding: “We cannot afford more wasted years repeating the same mistakes or shouting at each other across this House rather than delivering real change.”
Image: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper responded to the report. Pic: PA
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “After months of pressure, the prime minister has finally accepted our calls for a full statutory national inquiry into the grooming gangs.
“We must remember that this is not a victory for politicians, especially the ones like the home secretary, who had to be dragged to this position, or the prime minister. This is a victory for the survivors who have been calling for this for years.”
Ms Badenoch added: “The prime minister’s handling of this scandal is an extraordinary failure of leadership. His judgement has once again been found wanting.
“Since he became prime minister, he and the home secretary dismissed calls for an inquiry because they did not want to cause a stir.
“They accused those of us demanding justice for the victims of this scandal as, and I quote, ‘jumping on a far right bandwagon’, a claim the prime minister’s official spokesman restated this weekend – shameful.”
The government has promised new laws to protect children and support victims so they “stop being blamed for the crimes committed against them”.
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Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.
Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.
The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.
In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.
The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.
Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.
Image: Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.
“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’
“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…
“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”
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3:18
Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.
A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.
One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.
There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.
Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.
Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.
He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”
He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.
Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.
“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.
The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.