US solar and wind growth defies expectations – a decade in numbers
The latest US EIA and FERC data reflect a decade of explosive solar and wind growth – here’s how it breaks down.
The SUN DAY Campaign reviewed EIA’s latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with electrical generation data through June 30, 2024) and compared it to EIA’s data for June 30, 2019 and for June 30, 2014. It also examined FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with installed generating capacity data through June 30, 2024) and likewise compared it to FERC’s data for June 30, 2019 and for June 30, 2014.
The installed US generating capacity mix of all renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind) now totals 389 gigawatts (GW). That’s over 50% greater than five years ago (258.58 GW) and more than double the renewable energy capacity that existed a decade ago (190.26 GW). Most of the growth is because of new solar and wind capacity.
Similarly, electrical generation by renewables has shown strong growth. Ten years ago, renewables provided 14.28% of the nation’s electrical generation. Five years later, it had grown to 20.11% and today stands at 26.01%. Again, most of the increase is due to wind and solar.
For the first half of 2024, renewables, including small-scale solar, provided 549,339 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electrical generation. That’s almost 40% more than the amount renewables generated in the first half of 2019 (399,586 GWh) and nearly double the output reported for the first half of 2014 (287,136 GWh).
Over the past decade, wind has become a leader
Ten years ago, hydropower boasted about 62% more capacity than wind (99.64 GW vs. 61.45 GW) and generated 40% more electricity (140,659 GWh vs. 99,739 GWh).
Five years later, the two were nearly equal in both capacity (hydro: 100.73 GW vs. wind: 98.86 GW) and electrical generation (hydro: 153,790 GWh vs. wind: 154,338 GWh).
Now, however, wind has definitively overtaken hydropower with 152.64 GW of installed capacity compared to that of hydro (100.88 GW) as well as 247,435 GWh of actual electrical output during the first six months of 2024 compared to 126,139 GWh from hydro.
As of mid-2024, wind accounted for 11.72% of total US electrical generation. Five years prior, it was 7.77%, and a decade ago, its share (4.96%) was less than half of today’s figure.
Wind’s share of total installed generating capacity as of June 30, 2024, was 11.75% – a significant increase from its 8.25% share five years earlier and 5.26% a decade ago.
Solar is the fastest-growing source of new capacity and generation
In the past decade, solar has ballooned from a fraction of a percent of both capacity and generation to become the second-largest renewable in both categories.
At the end of June 2014, utility-scale solar provided a mere 9.25 GW (0.75%) of total installed US generating capacity. Generation by utility-scale solar (8,535 GWh) was only 0.42% of the US total and EIA wasn’t even reporting generation by distributed, small-scale (i.e., <1 MW) systems yet.
However, five years later, solar capacity (39.13 GW) accounted for 3.27% of total utility-scale capacity. Actual generation by utility-scale facilities in the first half of 2019 had risen more than fourfold to 36,042 GWh (1.81% of the total) with small-scale solar contributing an additional 17,520 GWh (0.88%).
By the middle of 2024, installed solar capacity had risen to 8.99% of total utility-scale capacity. Utility-scale systems generated 102,614 GWh (4.86%) and small-scale systems added another 42,449 GWh (2.01%).
This rate of solar and wind growth has defied expectations. Three years ago, FERC had projected that installed utility-scale solar capacity would reach 105.04 GW by mid-year 2024. Solar’s actual capacity today is 11.2% more than FERC’s earlier forecast. In addition, wind’s installed capacity is now 2.4% higher than FERC had anticipated.
Hydropower and geothermal ebbs and flows, biomass drops
Over the past decade, the installed capacity of hydropower has edged up very slowly from 99.64 GW in June 2014 to 100.73 GW five years later and 100.88 GW today. Because the installed capacity of all energy sources combined has grown by over 8% during the past 10 years, hydropower’s share of capacity has gradually declined from 8.57% in 2014 to 8.41% in 2019, to 7.77% in 2024.
Electrical generation by US hydropower facilities has ebbed and flowed from year to year. For example, it was 140,65 GWh in the first half of 2014 (7% of the total) and then 153,790 GWh in mid-2019 (7.74%) and is now 126,139 GWh (5.97%) for the first six months of 2024.
Electrical generation by biomass, as well as its share of installed generating capacity, has been on a slow decline for the past 10 years. FERC data indicate that utility-scale biomass capacity dropped from 16.05 GW (1.37% of the total) in mid-2014 to 16.02 GW (1.34%) in mid-2019 to 14.54 GW (1.12%) in mid-2024. Correspondingly, actual electrical generation fell from 30,095 GWh (1.50%) during the first half of 2014 to 29,520 GWh (1.49%) five years later and then to 23,062 GWh (1.09%) this year.
The smallest renewable energy source – geothermal – has shown a pattern similar to that of hydropower. Its installed capacity has risen slightly from 3.87 GW in 2014 to 4.14 GW today, while its share of the US total has consistently hovered around 0.32-0.33%. Actual generation has ebbed and flowed over the past decade providing 8,108 GWh (0.40%) in the first six months of 2014, then 8,376 GWh (0.42%) in the first half of 2019, and now 7,640 GWh (0.36%).
“Notwithstanding minimal changes in the contributions by hydropower, biomass, and geothermal, renewable energy sources have doubled their share of US generating capacity and electrical output over the past 10 years thanks to explosive growth by both wind and solar,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “If the trends of the preceding decade continue, renewable energy sources could account for 40% or more of capacity and actual generation by 2035.”
Read more: Q3 2024 update: How many US EV charging ports there are now
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National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.
Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.
“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”
Electrek reported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
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Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.
The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.
Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.
Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.
For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although
Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”
Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:
- Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
- Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
- Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.
Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.
We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.
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Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.
With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.
A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”
In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.
With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.
Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.
The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.
Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China
Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.
Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.
BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.
Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).
Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.
Last month, Hyundai opened its first overseas digital R&D center in China to help kick off its return to the region.
According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs
With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.
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