What’s the matter with Clemson? Here’s why it’s not just about the transfer portal
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
A day after his team’s worst loss in more than a decade, Dabo Swinney was feeling optimistic.
This is unsurprising for two reasons. The first is that Swinney had watched the film of Clemson‘s 34-3 drubbing at the hands of top-ranked Georgia and saw a team that, according to him, matched Georgia physically and lost, in large part, due to a handful of unforced errors and an inability to capture any “momentum.”
The second is that Swinney is unapologetically optimistic in even the most dire of circumstances. Recall the last time Clemson lost in such emphatic fashion — a 54-14 embarrassment at home to eventual national champion Florida State in 2013, when Swinney’s postgame analysis approached delirium: “If we played them 10 times,” he said, “we’d have won five.”
And so it was again after Saturday’s loss.
“We matched up well. It didn’t go our way, but we were physical, we could run. We’ve got a good team,” Swinney said. “We’ve got a bunch of good, young talent. It’s going to come together, and it’s going to be fun to watch.”
Or, to borrow a Swinney analogy, Clemson’s stock took a bit of a hit against Georgia, but that only means the return on investment will be that much bigger when it finally takes off.
So, yes, Swinney feels good in the aftermath of Clemson’s latest debacle — the team’s seventh loss in its past 15 games against Power 4 competition. He’s building something — just as he has before — and he’s not interested in changing course simply because one game against the country’s best team didn’t go his way.
“We’ve done it in a unique way,” Swinney said. “Now people want me to go do it some other way. They’ve lost their freakin’ mind. I’m not doing it another way. Everything doesn’t go the way you want it every single time but that doesn’t mean you get away from what your foundation is, what you believe.”
Swinney believes in building a program, and that means more than winning games. And on that front, he’s been exceptional.
Clemson’s player retention rate is among the best in the country — only Northwestern and Oklahoma State had fewer players leave in the December window than Clemson’s 12. The Tigers had the highest graduation rate of any Power 4 school (Georgia, in comparison, is last). Clemson is the only team in the country to rank in the top 25 in both the AP rankings and graduation rates for 13 years straight.
Even the wins and losses aren’t a clear-cut knock on Swinney’s approach. Clemson’s record from 2021-23 — the supposed downturn of the program — was 30-10, the eighth-best mark of any program in that span.
In a vacuum, it’s reasonable to follow Swinney’s logic. Look back at all the losses that have accrued since Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr. left town, and it feels like a meteoric shift, but each individual loss comes with strings attached: flukey turnovers, missed kicks, overtime defeats where a single play was the difference.
Even in Saturday’s blowout, Swinney believes that, had a few early plays gone Clemson’s way — a miss on Cade Klubnik‘s first pass, a big gain negated by an Adam Randall formation penalty — the rest of the game would’ve unfolded more favorably. The butterfly effect was Clemson’s problem, not talent.
Except it’s possible Swinney’s unyielding optimism is exactly the problem, and for an understanding of why, look to Swinney’s biggest taboo: the transfer portal.
The conventional wisdom follows that Swinney is simply a stubborn coach, tethered to an archaic way of thinking that has held the Tigers back from adding difference-makers via the portal. But this ignores two crucial realities. The first is that Swinney has made adjustments, including bringing in Garrett Riley to call the offense two years ago and hiring Matt Luke and Chris Rumph to his staff this season after critics had derided his longstanding practice of hiring internally.
The second is that Swinney isn’t alone in his reluctance to build a roster through free agency.
“I’m a big believer in retention, and I think Dabo believes that, too,” said Kirby Smart, whose win over Clemson was led, in part, by transfers Colbie Young and London Humphreys. “If I had my preference, I’d keep my team my team and coach my team and not have that constant turnover. Unfortunately, we have to deal with those circumstances and that makes it tougher. But I’m a big believer in getting the players we sign here and growing them and getting them better.”
That is, essentially, Swinney’s pronounced belief, too, even if he’s at the far end of the spectrum of coaches who’ve actually used the portal.
And as one Power 4 coach said of Swinney’s portal position, “You can still win a championship without the portal. The margin for error is just much smaller, and your flaws get much harder to hide.”
Since the modern portal began in 2018, Clemson has never had a transfer start a game. In the last cycle, only four schools did not take a single transfer: Clemson and the three service academies. For the latter three, an endorsement from a congressman is necessary. For Clemson, the bar may be even higher.
Swinney has, in fact, dabbled in the portal. Clemson made offers to a number of players over the past two years — particularly along the offensive line — but simply hasn’t reeled in any.
This is not, Swinney insists — emphatically, repeatedly — a philosophical opposition to the transfer portal. This is, like Clemson’s loss to Georgia, just a matter of happenstance and optimism. Some guys weren’t interested. The rest weren’t as good as he thinks the players already on his roster could be.
Swinney drew blowback in the spring for his latest attempt to rationalize his portal aversion with rhetorical gamesmanship by suggesting that everyone is a transfer from somewhere, and he’d just prefer to focus on guys transferring from high school to Clemson.
“There’s not one guy out there we wanted to bring in at this point,” Swinney said during the spring portal window. “Most of the guys in the portal now are guys getting pushed because people over-sign. We like our guys and we like our team.”
In the portal, Swinney sees mostly cast-offs. He looks at the high school recruits Clemson has signed and sees limitless potential. The reason Clemson hasn’t returned to its status as a perennial playoff team is that the results haven’t matched that potential.
Instead, Tigers fans have been left frustrated after Swinney and others spent an entire offseason raving about freshmen wideouts Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore — quotes about how the pair was incredibly advanced at this stage, how the Tigers didn’t need veteran help at their most underperforming position because these two new faces would change the game.
Wesco played 12 snaps against Georgia. Moore played five. They combined for two catches for 12 yards, all in the fourth quarter after the game was out of hand.
Swinney took responsibility for problematic personnel choices and suggested Wesco and Moore would see far more action moving forward, but the imbalance between promise and performance is hardly an isolated incident. Receivers alone offer a stark reminder of that yawning chasm. From Joe Ngata to E.J. Williams Jr. to Beaux Collins, Clemson has shuffled nearly a dozen players through its receiving room in recent years that earned high praise from Swinney and the staff but did little on game day to justify the hype.
Still, when Swinney looks for help in the portal, his perception of his in-house talent underpins his requirements for new additions. Swinney said in 2023 that, if Clemson is going to add pieces in the portal, he wants all-conference players with significant experience.
That’s already a thin pool of options. Then Swinney adds that no one is guaranteed playing time and Clemson isn’t shelling out huge NIL sums for players who haven’t yet contributed to winning games at Clemson.
“We don’t use NIL in recruiting,” Swinney said. “Zero. But [former five-star recruit] Peter Woods came anyway. And they’re not leaving. They’re looking for what we are. We’re so unique in our approach, it’s like a magnet to the type of kid who’ll be successful here.”
So, boil that all down into an elevator pitch to transfers: You must be elite. You’re going to have to win a job against players here that Swinney already adores. There will be no NIL handouts without proven production. To be at Clemson is a privilege.
Is it any wonder Clemson hasn’t reeled in any big fish in the portal?
And, of course, the portal works both ways. Swinney flaunts the program’s retention rate, but as one opposing coach noted, in a world in which scholarships are capped at 85, there’s value in culling the herd and ridding a roster of players who aren’t contributing.
But again, Swinney can point to his impressive track record as ample evidence that his philosophy works — and will work again. Sure, his freshmen receivers didn’t blossom against Georgia, but that’s just Week 1. Look back at Vic Beasley (eighth overall NFL draft pick in 2015), Kevin Dodd (33rd in 2016), Cornell Powell (fifth-round pick in 2021). Clemson has produced countless stars who spent the first two, three, four years in the program languishing with the scout team before bursting into the spotlight late in their college careers. If Swinney has done that for Beasley, why not Klubnik or Randall or Cole Turner?
“You’re not going to get Trevor Lawrence every year but that doesn’t mean this guy doesn’t turn out and get to the same place,” Swinney said.
And herein lies the paradox for Clemson. Swinney sees the potential in this team every year. He recruited these guys, he knows them, he’s seen flashes of success and believes that, given the right mixture of time and circumstance, they’ll put up numbers like Lawrence or Deshaun Watson or Tajh Boyd. It has happened before, so it will happen again.
Reality, however, offers a more tepid metric. Clemson has not had a Day 1 or 2 NFL draft pick on offense since Lawrence and Etienne were selected in 2021, and it’s hard to imagine a member of this season’s roster that would reverse that trend in the near future.
“Trevor Lawrence covers up a lot of flaws,” one Power 4 coach said of Clemson. “When you don’t have that, the flaws become obvious.”
Or, as another coach offered: “You can still be a good team but there aren’t a lot of great teams. Usually there are four or five teams that are way better than everybody else, and five or six that are imperfect but also better than everybody else. And then, 13 through, like, 40, is all the same thing.”
Swinney points often at the close losses — and, following the Georgia game, even the blowouts — and notes the handful of plays that might’ve set Clemson on a different course. But in the Lawrence era, most games didn’t come down to a handful of critical plays. Clemson was at the narrow end of the bell curve, one of those elite teams that was simply better than everyone else.
That’s what Clemson fans saw Saturday — a litmus test against one of the game’s best teams, where the Tigers didn’t measure up.
Instead, Clemson is firmly ensconced in the wide, nondescript middle ground. It is good enough to win against almost anyone, but it isn’t good enough to do so without playing nearly flawless football.
Still, Swinney looks at his team and sees the makings of a champion.
“I know there’s a lot of frustration and disappointment, and nobody feels that more than us,” he said. “But I think we’ve got a great season ahead.”
He may be right. Numerous coaches who spoke to ESPN suggested Clemson was still capable of making a run, with one saying unequivocally that the Tigers had the most talented roster in the ACC. The league’s champion is guaranteed a playoff bid this year, and the loss to Georgia does nothing to keep Clemson from winning the league.
As another ACC coach said, Swinney has won more games than anyone else in the league, even during a so-called downturn, so it would be foolish to suggest he needs to change his approach.
It’s a point Swinney reiterates often.
“I’m 54 years old,” Swinney said. “I’d have to be stupid to not believe based on what I’ve been through in my life — not football, my life. Where I’ve come from, how I’ve grown up, I’d have to be stupid to question my faith and not have belief. God didn’t put me here to fail. But I don’t look at it as a failure if you don’t win every game.”
So Swinney remains steadfast in his optimism. A glass-half-full coach sees the opportunity still ahead, sees the potential for greatness as a challenge worth pursuing. Swinney’s glass is filled to the brim.
“I know everybody will just point to the scoreboard, but it’s not always what you see, and as coaches, we know that,” Swinney said. “Lot of good stuff we can teach on and grow our team for a great season. It was a disappointing night but a great opportunity for us to build on it, and I really believe we can have a great season.”
Saturday’s loss may have been a harbinger of more problems ahead, but Swinney is hardwired to instead see it as an opportunity. It’s his only way forward.
And so the biggest question — for 2024 and beyond — isn’t whether Swinney will finally change his stripes and embrace the portal, but whether the players on Clemson’s current roster can live up to what their coach sees in them.
For every college football team, the season often can swing on one person, position group or situation. If this one thing comes together as planned — or even better than expected — the season could be a big success. If it doesn’t go well, the team’s season could go south.
Though the quarterback position often fills that role, especially when there’s a new player at the helm, other concerns can be shoring up a weakness from last year, incorporating a key transfer or having an important player return from injury.
For the teams in our post-spring Power Rankings, the stakes are particularly high. Spots in the College Football Playoff are on the line, and failure could put coaches on the hot seat.
We asked our college football reporters to provide the biggest X factor — the one thing that could make or break the season — for each of our Top 25 teams.
X factor: QB Drew Allar‘s big-game performances
Penn State enters what appears to be an all-in season, and Allar has the ingredients to be the top NFL quarterback prospect for the 2026 draft. But his play under the brightest of lights has left something to be desired. He hasn’t beaten Ohio State or Michigan, he delivered some good moments in a Big Ten championship game loss to Oregon but was still intercepted twice, and threw the crucial interception in a CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame. Penn State has made the necessary investments around Allar, who will share a backfield with probably the nation’s top running back tandem. The time has come for the senior to be at his best in the biggest moments. If he delivers, Penn State will have a real chance at its first national title since 1986. — Adam Rittenberg
X factor: Run defense
Though the Tigers have had standout players across their front seven over the past few years, that group has fallen short in one particular area — rush defense — and it became glaring last season. The truth is, its decline began when Wes Goodwin took over as defensive coordinator. In each of his three seasons, the rush defense has gotten worse, culminating in what became a major issue in 2024. Clemson gave up 160.6 yards on the ground, and there isn’t much more proof needed as to how poorly the Tigers attempted to stop the run than their playoff loss to Texas, when the Longhorns rushed for 292 yards. Clemson tackled poorly and often took bad angles. This season Tom Allen takes over after leading one of the best rushing defenses in the country at Penn State. Expect this area to be vastly improved, returning to the standard Clemson set under Brent Venables. — Andrea Adelson
X factor: Middle of the defensive line
Texas has been loaded the past two seasons, but one of the reasons it made back-to-back CFP semifinal trips were the big men in the middle of the defensive line. Giant, athletic space-eaters such as T’Vondre Sweat, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy II and Alfred Collins made it tough to push the Longhorns around and freed up others to make plays when they weren’t. But this offseason, Texas had to go searching for big men, landing Syracuse freshman All-American Maraad Watson (6-foot-3, 313 pounds), Cole Brevard (6-3, 333) from Purdue, North Carolina’s Travis Shaw (6-5, 342), and 6-5, 299-pound German Hero Kanu, who arrives from Ohio State. Five-star freshman Justus Terry (6-5, 268) is already on campus and will look to be in the mix along with sophomore Alex January (6-5, 308), who appeared in 11 games last season. The Longhorns have star edge rushers in Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, and do-everything linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to bring pressure. But opening against Ohio State, then hitting an SEC schedule with so many new faces up front will be a key area for Texas. — Dave Wilson
X factor: WR Colbie Young
Georgia hopes it upgraded its receiver corps by adding Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), and heralded freshman C.J. Wiley. The return of Young, a senior, might end up being equally important. Young played sparingly last season and was suspended while facing criminal charges involving an alleged domestic violence incident. He reached a plea deal with prosecutors and returned to the team. He’s an outside threat that excels at making contested catches. “Yeah, he gives you problems outside,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “You’re going out there and there’s not a lot of defense you can have for a guy that gets the ball at the highest point and goes up.” — Mark Schlabach
X factor: TE Max Klare
The Buckeyes landed the top tight end in the transfer portal in Klare, who arrived in Columbus from Purdue. Klare caught 51 passes for 685 years and four touchdowns during his sophomore season, easily leading the Boilermakers in those three categories. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound Klare figures to give the Buckeyes a dynamic target over the middle of the field, nicely complementing receiver Carnell Tate and All-American wideout Jeremiah Smith. Klare’s presence should also give Ohio State’s new starting quarterback — whether it’s Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz — a playmaking security blanket early in the season. With Smith set to command attention on the outside, Klare should find plenty of favorable matchups operating inside. — Jake Trotter
X factor: QB Garrett Nussmeier
Quite simply, Nussmeier will determine how far LSU goes in 2025. Recent years have been good to the returning LSU starter — Jayden Daniels being the latest example — and Nussmeier’s stats from last season compare to those of Daniels from 2022 before he won the Heisman Trophy the following year. Brian Kelly did a fantastic job in the transfer portal bolstering the roster, including getting Nussmeier plenty of weapons and added protection. If there were a situation in which a good player becomes great in 2025, it feels as if it’s in Baton Rouge with Nussmeier helping Kelly achieve what he came to LSU to do. — Harry Lyles Jr.
X factor: QB CJ Carr
Carr hasn’t attempted a pass in a game yet at Notre Dame, but the quarterback is facing lofty expectations heading into the 2025 season. Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, is still locked in a battle with Kenny Minchey for the starting job. Last year’s backup, Steve Angeli, transferred to Syracuse. After redshirting last year because of an elbow injury in his throwing arm, Carr performed well in spring practice. He appears to be the player to beat. The Saline, Michigan, native was ranked the No. 2 pocket passer in the Class of 2024, according to ESPN. With running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price returning, along with a good offensive line, the Irish might not need much from Carr. But he’ll have to avoid turnovers and make good decisions while running the offense. — Mark Schlabach
X factor: QB Dante Moore
Dan Lanning’s team is so deep and well rounded that it’s hard to say the Ducks’ success this season will hinge entirely on Moore. And yet, since the Ducks’ lineage of quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel) has buoyed Oregon’s offense in recent years, Moore has some big shoes to fill. The 20-year-old sophomore spent a year learning under Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein after getting thrown into the fire as a true freshman starter during his lone season at UCLA. This time, the stage will be much bigger and the pressure much higher. — Paolo Uggetti
X factor: QB Ty Simpson
Simpson has waited his turn and had chances to win the quarterback job at Alabama, and now it’s his time unless he takes a step back during preseason camp, which is something nobody at Alabama expects to happen. In his fourth year in the program, Simpson will be starting anew with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, but he has the multidimensional skills Grubb likes in his quarterback. Getting off to a good start will be critical for Simpson and the Tide. — Chris Low
X factor: LB Siale Esera
After playing in only five games in each of the past two seasons, Esera’s career hasn’t gotten off to the start many were expecting from the Provo native. But now that he is fully healthy, that should change. Esera emerged from spring ball as a starting linebacker and has drawn rave reviews from both head coach Kalani Sitake and defensive coordinator Jay Hill. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, he has both the size and athleticism to become a difference-maker in the Big 12 — and that’s the expectation. — Kyle Bonagura
X factor: OLB Gabe Jacas
Jacas might not be a national name just yet, but he has the skill set to propel Illinois and contend for the sport’s biggest defensive honors. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Jacas led Illinois in sacks (8), tackles for loss (13), forced fumbles (3) and quarterback hurries (10) last fall, and bypassed the NFL for another chance with an Illini squad that returns most of its core players from a 10-win team. Illinois probably needs to develop more pass-rush punch around Jacas, who was the team’s only consistent threat off the edge last season. The Illini also struggled a bit against good passing offenses. But if Jacas can defeat double-teams, or free up others to pressure quarterbacks, Illinois should have a chance at its first CFP appearance. — Rittenberg
X factor: Wide receivers beyond Jordyn Tyson
Despite sitting out the last two games of the season, Tyson caught 75 passes in 2024. All other Arizona State wide receivers combined for 61 receptions. It was certainly impressive that the Sun Devils managed two great performances at the end of the season without Tyson, but the limitations of the ASU receiving corps ramped up the degree of difficulty for quarterback Sam Leavitt and do-everything running back Cam Skattebo. With Skattebo now in the NFL, some combination of receivers Malik McClain and Derek Eusebio, and incoming transfers Jalen Moss (Fresno State), Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama) will need to come up big to make sure Leavitt and Tyson have the help they need. — Bill Connelly
X factor: WR Nyck Harbor
No player on South Carolina’s roster looks the part quite like Harbor. He’s 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, built like DK Metcalf and is an absolute rocket. But that speed has been a bit of his downfall through two seasons in Columbia, where he has spent spring as part of the Gamecocks’ track team. Call it a distraction — that’s debatable — but his development on the football field hasn’t been quite as fast as the Gamecocks might have hoped. Harbor has started 13 games over two seasons but caught only 38 passes and three touchdowns. This spring, he focused solely on football, and he says he’s poised for a breakthrough. “Going through a whole year totally committed to football, I’ve never had that before,” Harbor said. “It’s done wonders in my ability to understand the game and build off last year. I’m going to be a whole different player by the time fall rolls around.” — David Hale
X factor: WR Chase Sowell
Sowell steps into a wide receiver room that lost its top two players — Jayden Higgins (second-round pick by the Houston Texans) and Jaylin Noel (third-round pick by the Texans) — leaving a massive production gap on the outside. Sowell was a reliable option at East Carolina the past two seasons — 34 catches, 678 yards in 2024; 47 catches, 622 yards in 2023 — and is expected to offer the Cyclones a much-needed big-play threat. Sowell should benefit from the experience of quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be starting for a third straight season in Ames. — Bonagura
X factor: TE RJ Maryland
For sheer NFL potential, there might not be a better prospect at SMU than Maryland. The tight end has racked up 17 touchdown catches over his first three seasons, but last year was cut short after he was injured in a win over Stanford, sitting out the rest of the season. Maryland should be back to 100% by the start of the 2025 season, and his return comes at a critical time for SMU’s passing game, as six of the other seven Mustangs to reel in at least 200 receiving yards last season are gone. A healthy Maryland creates a clear-cut mismatch and forces defenses to adjust each week. He could be in line for a breakthrough season — and if that happens, the Mustangs’ offense should follow suit. — Hale
X factor: Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood
It really can’t be overstated that this defense has to be better. Texas Tech has been one of the biggest storylines of the college football offseason when it comes to roster building, largely because of the Red Raiders’ willingness to spend money. Wood comes in after tenures as defensive coordinator at Tulane in 2023 and Houston in 2024. On paper, this is a much more talented group. Statistically, it can’t be much worse. But we won’t know until the opening kickoff. — Lyles
X factor: QB Fernando Mendoza
Can Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, take another jump in 2025? Among all the variables that could potentially lift — or let down — the Hoosiers’ in Year 2 under coach Curt Cignetti, none feel more important than this. Mendoza became a beacon of a spirited (if ultimately underwhelming) 6-7 campaign for the Bears last fall, when he completed 68.7% of his passes (12th best nationally among QBs with at least 100 passing attempts) in his first full season as a starter. Mendoza has big shoes to fill after Kurtis Rourke motored Indiana’s record-setting offense to the nation’s second-best points per game tally (41.3) in 2024. But Mendoza should be playing behind a sturdier offensive line in 2025, and there are plenty of playmakers within an intriguing Hoosiers skill position group led by veteran receiver Elijah Sarratt. If Mendoza can find another gear operating a more favorable situation this fall, it could go a long way toward pulling Indiana back into playoff contention. — Eli Lederman
X factor: QB Avery Johnson
The K-State program is obviously in sturdy shape, having won between eight and 10 games for four straight years under Chris Klieman. But when you sign a big-time, blue-chip quarterback such as Johnson (ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat QB in the 2023 class), you’re giving yourself a shot at a higher ceiling than usual. Johnson’s first season as a starter in 2024 was all over the map — the good was very good, the bad was awfully worrisome — which is how these things usually go. But now he’s entering his junior season, and he has a super explosive skill corps with weapons such as running back Dylan Edwards, receiver Jayce Brown and transfers Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana). If Johnson is ready to live up to his hype, Kansas State fans could really enjoy 2025. — Connelly
X factor: Health of QB DJ Lagway
Quarterback play at any level of football is more valuable than it has ever been, and a big reason expectations are growing in Gainesville is because of No. 2 for the Gators. Lagway had some shoulder soreness in the offseason that carried over from last year, so he was limited in spring practice and played only five snaps in the spring game. He resumed throwing in late April, and it seems Florida has been cautious in hopes of having him ready to go this fall for a healthy season. — Lyles
X factor: QB Bryce Underwood
Underwood’s high-profile commitment flip from LSU to Michigan was among the biggest recruiting coups yet in the NIL era. The Wolverines also brought in Mikey Keene through the transfer portal. Keene has thrown for 8,245 career yards and 65 touchdowns during stints at Fresno State and UCF. But Underwood has the talent that could turn Michigan into a playoff contender. That’s a lot to ask of a true freshman. But Underwood isn’t an ordinary freshman. The top-rated pocket passer in the 2025 class, Underwood won two state titles in Michigan and went 50-4 as the starter at Belleville High School, with 38 straight victories from Week 4 of his freshman season to the state title game of his junior year. The Wolverines struggled to throw the ball last year. Underwood could immediately change that in 2025 — if he wins the job. — Trotter
X factor: Defensive secondary
Headed into last season, the X factor for Miami was a thin secondary, and that unit ended up having a role in costing the Hurricanes a spot in the ACC championship game. Now, that group should be considered a strength — and the X factor again. If this unit plays the way it is projected to, the Hurricanes will have fixed the biggest issue on their team from a year ago. Miami brought in highly touted transfers Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State), returns FWAA freshman All-American OJ Frederique Jr., and signed several freshmen and others through the portal to build depth. Without question, Miami is far more talented at this position, and that could be the difference between playing for a championship. — Adelson
X factor: Running game
There might not be a better one-two punch at tailback in the country than Louisville’s duo of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Among Power 4 backs with at least 60 carries last season, Watson led the nation by averaging 8.9 yards per rush. Brown was fourth at 7.11. Over Louisville’s final eight games of the season, the duo combined for 1,264 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards and 16 scrimmage touchdowns while forcing 43 missed tackles. Plus, the Cards’ O-line should be among the ACC’s best, creating a blueprint for one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country. — Hale
X factor: Running game
The Aggies’ offense will go as far as their running backs take it. Last season, Le’Veon Moss broke out, averaging 6.3 yards a carry with 10 touchdowns, and had been responsible for about a quarter of the offense’s entire production when he was lost for the season because of a knee injury against South Carolina in November. The Aggies, 7-1 going into that game, lost that one, then finished 8-5 without Moss, losing to Auburn, Texas and USC by a combined 16 points to limp to the finish. Freshman Rueben Owens, a star recruit, also missed most of last season because of a foot injury. With Moss and Owens back, along with Amari Daniels, who added 700 yards and eight TDs last year, suddenly A&M has an embarrassment of riches at the position. With the Aggies returning a strong offensive line, offensive coordinator Collin Klein will be able to take some pressure off quarterback Marcel Reed‘s development along with a new group of wide receivers. — Wilson
X factor: WR Cayden Lee
Ole Miss enters the 2025 season with a first-year starter at quarterback in Austin Simmons. Much has been made about the transfers Lane Kiffin brought in at receiver, specifically with De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III. But Lee comes in off of a solid sophomore season, with 874 yards and two touchdowns on 57 receptions. Adding talent in the portal is good, no doubt, but there is value in guys who have (literally) been there and done that. — Lyles
X factor: QB John Mateer
The Sooners swung big in the transfer portal and brought in Mateer (along with his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle) from Washington State to bring some life to an offense that finished 97th nationally in scoring offense (24 points per game) and 113th in total offense (313 yards per game) last season. Mateer can beat defenses with his arm and legs. He was the only FBS quarterback last season to pass for more than 3,000 yards (3,139) and rush for more than 800 yards (826), and he accounted for 44 touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing). If he plays at a similar level in Norman, the Sooners should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC. — Low
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
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