An offshore drilling platform stands in shallow waters at the Manifa offshore oilfield, operated by Saudi Aramco, in Manifa, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018.
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Saudi Arabia has a superpower. Not only is it the largest exporter of crude oil in the world; its production costs for oil projects are also the lowest in the world, at around just $10 per barrel. When around 75% of your fiscal revenue comes from oil, that’s a big deal.
And for a time, its fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needed a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its budget — was fairly comfortable, too.
That’s changing as the kingdom embarks on huge spending projects as part of Vision 2030, which aims to modernize its economy and diversify its revenue sources away from oil. With each passing year, that projected breakeven oil price gets higher, and the kingdom’s deficit widens.
In May of 2023 the International Monetary Fund forecast the kingdom’s breakeven oil price at $80.90 per barrel, which moved it back into a fiscal deficit following its first surplus in nearly a decade. The Fund’s latest forecast, in April, put that figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 32% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which is trading at around $73 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Johnnygreig | E+ | Getty Images
“At least until 2030, Saudi will have massive budgetary needs due to the need to demonstrate some significant outcome in key Vision 2030 projects and to prepare for and host big sporting and cultural events” like the World Cup 2034 and Expo 2030, said Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
“All this amidst expected growth in oil supply from the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and even the UAE and possible anemic oil consumption growth in China, the Kingdom’s largest oil customer, means that the Kingdom’s fiscal breakeven price is likely to rise perhaps to around $100.”
All that, she adds, does not include the domestic spending requirements of the kingdom’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, which is behind multi-trillion dollar megaprojects like NEOM. A Bloomberg forecast cited by Nomura Asset Management put this year’s breakeven price, including PIF spending, at $112 per barrel.
“Saudi Arabia is wealthy and government spending has climbed rapidly over the past decade but it has fiscal parameters within which it must operate just like every other country,” a Nomura report on Arabian markets published Sept. 2 read.
Important economic indicators “like oil production and prices, are now flashing warning signs,” it added. “A global slowdown amid supply uncertainties may hamper prospects for hydrocarbon economies.”
Does the breakeven oil price actually matter?
But wait — fiscal breakeven prices are not always as important as people think they are, some economists and market analysts argue. And for Saudi Arabia, a range of options exist to manage deficits and less-than-ideal oil prices.
“The reality is that countries run deficits all the time, and therefore the idea Saudi Arabia needs $112 oil, or whatever the number is, to me doesn’t provide a true representation of what’s going on,” one energy analyst who focuses on the kingdom told CNBC.
“For Saudi Arabia, they have a lot of capacity to take on more debt if they wanted to … it’s not an issue for them to run a small deficit,” the analyst said, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions on speaking to the press.
The kingdom also has robust foreign currency reserves, which grew to a 20-month high of $452.8 billion in July, and has been successfully issuing bonds,tapping debt markets for $12 billion so far this year. Oil revenue should increase in 2025 when the OPEC+ production cuts, the majority of which were taken by Saudi Arabia, expire, according to energy analysts.
“From that perspective, they’re also starting from a relatively strong position,” the source said.
Saudi Arabia’s public debt has grown from around 3% of its GDP in the 2010s to 24% today — that’s a massive increment, Sim said. But by international standards, it’s still low. Average public debt in EU countries, for instance, averages 82%. In the U.S. in 2023, that figure was 123%.
Its relatively low debt level and high credit rating makes it easier for Saudi Arabia to take on more debt as it needs to. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams. While the country’s economy has contracted for the last consecutive four quarters, non-oil economic activity grew 4.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, up 3.4% from the prior quarter.
“The good news is that the economy is progressing along its diversification track and has already absorbed large reductions in subsidies and higher VAT while generating a huge number of jobs,” the Nomura report said.
While the kingdom “still lacks the quantum of foreign direct investments desired,” it wrote, “the newly approved investment law should bring it closer to achieving its goal of building a substantially bigger non-oil sector.”
Risks remain, however — primarily if oil demand continues to be soft in major consuming countries and crude supply in non-OPEC+ countries continue to grow, Sim said. And those risks are entirely out of Saudi Arabia’s control.
“With regard to the first point, the biggest danger is a possible tit-for-tat tariff war between China and the US or Europe,” Sim said. This “could result in slower global economic growth and hence a reduced demand for oil.”
Construction at BYD’s new EV plant in Brazil was suddenly halted Monday after authorities found Chinese workers in “slavery-like” conditions. The workers were hired in China by another firm, and BYD has since cut ties. BYD and the firm are now saying the term “slavery” was unjustly used, and some translations may have been misunderstood.
Why construction at BYD’s EV plant in Brazil is halted
Updated 12/26/24: This article has been updated with the latest information, including a statement from Jinjiang Group and comments from BYD’s general manager of public relations, Li Yunfei. Read more below.
According to a statement from the Public Ministry of Labor (MPT), 163 workers at the construction site of BYD’s new EV plant in Salvador, Brazil, were “being held in conditions analogous to slavery.”
Construction on the site was halted on Monday after the findings. According to the authorities, Jinjiang Group, one of the contractors BYD hired to build the new EV plant, hired the workers in China.
BYD released a statement saying it has cut ties with Jinjiang and is assisting the victims as it works with Brazilian authorities. All workers will be transferred to hotels. They will not be able to work and will have their contracts terminated.
Alexandre Baldy, senior vice president of BYD Brazil, said the company remains “committed to full compliance with Brazilian legislation, especially with regard to the protection of workers’ rights and human dignity.”
The MPT statement detailed the extreme “slavery-like” worker conditions. For example, they had one bathroom for every 31 workers, forcing them to wake up at 4 am to get in line to be ready for work at 5:30 am. They slept without mattresses on the bed, and the kitchens operated in “alarming conditions.”
If a worker quit after six months, they would leave the country without any pay after factoring in the cost of a round-trip airplane ticket.
BYD said it has held a “detailed review” over the past few weeks. The Chinese EV giant asked Jinjiang several times to improve the conditions.
A joint virtual hearing of the MPT and MTE is scheduled for December 26. The MPT said the need for new “on-site inspections” has not been ruled out. BYD’s new EV plant is set to begin production next year. Check back soon for more updates on the situation.
Update 12/26/24: Jinjian Group said the portrayal of its employees working in “slavery-like” conditions was inconsistent, and some of the translations may have been misunderstood.
“Being unjustly labeled as ‘enslaved’ has made our employees feel that their dignity has been insulted and their human rights violated, seriously hurting the dignity of the Chinese people,” Jinjiang said in a social media post (via Reuters). The company issued a joint letter to issue an apology.
BYD’s general manager of public relations, Li Yunfei, reposted the statement. Li added that “foreign forces” and some other members of the media were “deliberately smearing Chinese brands.
Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, said the Chinese embassy in Brazil was in talks with leaders in the region to verify the accusations.
BYD is already a top-selling EV brand in Brazil. In October, it launched its first pickup, the Shark PHEV. The pickup is BYD’s sixth vehicle in Brazil, joining other popular models like the Dolphin Mini (Seagull), Yuan Plus, and Dolphin.
Once up and running, which was expected later this year or early 2025, BYD’s Brazil plant will have an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles.
Source: Bloomberg, Brazil Public Ministry of Labor
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Now, three years later, it sounds like a deal has been made.
Chinese media are reporting that Eve and Tesla have signed an agreement for Tesla to get cells from a Malaysian factory starting in 2026 (via CNEV Post):
Eve Energy has reached a supply agreement with Tesla for energy storage batteries, and its Malaysian factory is expected to start supplying energy storage batteries to Tesla US in 2026, according to a report in Chinese media outlet LatePost today.
Eve confirmed that it recently signed a deal with “a customer in the Americas” without confirming the customer, but LatePost reached out to them when reporting that Tesla was the customer, and they didn’t confirm nor deny it.
For the longest time, Tesla only had Panasonic as its battery cell supplier. The automaker pioneered using cylindrical li-ion cells in electric vehicles. Prior to Tesla, they were primarily used in personal electronics, like laptops.
At the time, Panasonic was the only cell manufacturer willing to put its cells in Tesla vehicles.
Over the last few years, Tesla has greatly increased its battery cell suppliers, adding contracts with CATL, LG, BYD, Samsung, and now apparently Eve Energy.
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Hertz is trying to sell its Tesla cars to renters as it desperately tries to unload its electric vehicle inventory after a massive drop in value.
In 2021, Hertz made a major move to electrify its fleet, ordering 100,000 Tesla Model 3s and later adding Model Ys. This Tesla fleet boosted Hertz’s customer satisfaction, but issues soon arose when Tesla cut prices on the Model 3 and Model Y in 2022 and 2023, sharply reducing resale values.
This hit Hertz hard, as it relies on fleet value for its financial health. While the Model 3 held up to 90% of its value within three years as of 2020, more recent declines saw nearly 50% of that value erased, with Model Y values dropping even more.
You can get some exceptionally cheap Tesla vehicles on Hertz’s website. Of course, they have high mileages over short periods of time and they have been farted in by god knows how many people, but for as low as $17,000 and still under powertrain warranty, it’s not necessarily a bad deal.
But it looks like Hertz is having some issues selling those used Tesla vehicles.
The car rental company has started a new program to reach out to people who are renting its Tesla vehicles to try to get them to keep them.
A recent Hertz renter shared on Reddit an offer that the rental company sent him about keeping his Tesla Model 3 after his rental.
Hertz offered him to buy the 2023 Model 3 with 30,000 miles for just short of $18,000:
More people have received similar offers as per social media posts. It looks like a new program from Hertz to try to unload their Tesla inventory.
Electrek’s Take
These are not necessarily bad deals, but you shouldn’t expect “like new” cars. People tend not to take good care of rental cars.
But it might be a good solution for used car buyers looking to go electric.
At the cost and with fuel savings, this is basically a $12,000 vehicle over a few years.
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