Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price is rising fast. What will the kingdom do about it?
An offshore drilling platform stands in shallow waters at the Manifa offshore oilfield, operated by Saudi Aramco, in Manifa, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018.
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Saudi Arabia has a superpower. Not only is it the largest exporter of crude oil in the world; its production costs for oil projects are also the lowest in the world, at around just $10 per barrel. When around 75% of your fiscal revenue comes from oil, that’s a big deal.
And for a time, its fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needed a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its budget — was fairly comfortable, too.
That’s changing as the kingdom embarks on huge spending projects as part of Vision 2030, which aims to modernize its economy and diversify its revenue sources away from oil. With each passing year, that projected breakeven oil price gets higher, and the kingdom’s deficit widens.
In May of 2023 the International Monetary Fund forecast the kingdom’s breakeven oil price at $80.90 per barrel, which moved it back into a fiscal deficit following its first surplus in nearly a decade. The Fund’s latest forecast, in April, put that figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 32% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which is trading at around $73 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Johnnygreig | E+ | Getty Images
“At least until 2030, Saudi will have massive budgetary needs due to the need to demonstrate some significant outcome in key Vision 2030 projects and to prepare for and host big sporting and cultural events” like the World Cup 2034 and Expo 2030, said Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
“All this amidst expected growth in oil supply from the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and even the UAE and possible anemic oil consumption growth in China, the Kingdom’s largest oil customer, means that the Kingdom’s fiscal breakeven price is likely to rise perhaps to around $100.”
All that, she adds, does not include the domestic spending requirements of the kingdom’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, which is behind multi-trillion dollar megaprojects like NEOM. A Bloomberg forecast cited by Nomura Asset Management put this year’s breakeven price, including PIF spending, at $112 per barrel.
“Saudi Arabia is wealthy and government spending has climbed rapidly over the past decade but it has fiscal parameters within which it must operate just like every other country,” a Nomura report on Arabian markets published Sept. 2 read.
Important economic indicators “like oil production and prices, are now flashing warning signs,” it added. “A global slowdown amid supply uncertainties may hamper prospects for hydrocarbon economies.”
Does the breakeven oil price actually matter?
But wait — fiscal breakeven prices are not always as important as people think they are, some economists and market analysts argue. And for Saudi Arabia, a range of options exist to manage deficits and less-than-ideal oil prices.
“The reality is that countries run deficits all the time, and therefore the idea Saudi Arabia needs $112 oil, or whatever the number is, to me doesn’t provide a true representation of what’s going on,” one energy analyst who focuses on the kingdom told CNBC.
“For Saudi Arabia, they have a lot of capacity to take on more debt if they wanted to … it’s not an issue for them to run a small deficit,” the analyst said, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions on speaking to the press.
The kingdom also has robust foreign currency reserves, which grew to a 20-month high of $452.8 billion in July, and has been successfully issuing bonds, tapping debt markets for $12 billion so far this year. Oil revenue should increase in 2025 when the OPEC+ production cuts, the majority of which were taken by Saudi Arabia, expire, according to energy analysts.
“From that perspective, they’re also starting from a relatively strong position,” the source said.
Saudi Arabia’s public debt has grown from around 3% of its GDP in the 2010s to 24% today — that’s a massive increment, Sim said. But by international standards, it’s still low. Average public debt in EU countries, for instance, averages 82%. In the U.S. in 2023, that figure was 123%.
Its relatively low debt level and high credit rating makes it easier for Saudi Arabia to take on more debt as it needs to. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams. While the country’s economy has contracted for the last consecutive four quarters, non-oil economic activity grew 4.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, up 3.4% from the prior quarter.
“The good news is that the economy is progressing along its diversification track and has already absorbed large reductions in subsidies and higher VAT while generating a huge number of jobs,” the Nomura report said.
While the kingdom “still lacks the quantum of foreign direct investments desired,” it wrote, “the newly approved investment law should bring it closer to achieving its goal of building a substantially bigger non-oil sector.”
Risks remain, however — primarily if oil demand continues to be soft in major consuming countries and crude supply in non-OPEC+ countries continue to grow, Sim said. And those risks are entirely out of Saudi Arabia’s control.
“With regard to the first point, the biggest danger is a possible tit-for-tat tariff war between China and the US or Europe,” Sim said. This “could result in slower global economic growth and hence a reduced demand for oil.”
BYD’s cheapest EV in China just got even more affordable. After cutting prices this month, the BYD Seagull EV starts at just 56,800 yuan, or under $8,000.
BYD cuts Seagull EV price to under $8,000 in April
Despite an intensifying EV price war in China, BYD is cutting prices once again. The Chinese EV giant announced a new promotion this month across several Ocean Series models, including the Seagull.
The 2025 BYD Seagull EV is available starting at just 56,800 yuan ($7,800). The offer is for the non-Smart Driving Vitality Edition model, which usually starts at 69,800 yuan ($9,500).
After launching the new Seagull last year, BYD said the low-cost electric car officially opened “a new era of electricity being lower than oil.” Earlier this year, it upgraded most of its vehicles, including the Seagull, with its new “God’s Eye” smart driving system at no extra charge.
BYD’s Seagull is offered in three trims in China: Vitality, Freedom, and Flying. It has two battery options, 30.1 kWh or 38.9 kWh, which is good for the 305 km (190 mi) and 405 km (252 mi) CLTC range, respectively.
At just 3,780 mm long, 1,715 mm wide, and 1,540 mm tall, the Seagull is even smaller than the former Chevy Bolt EV (4,145 mm long, 1,765 mm wide, and 1,611 mm tall). It’s about the size of a Fiat 500e.
The price cut comes as BYD’s sales continue surging. With another 377,420 new energy vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) sold last month, the Chinese automaker has now sold over one million NEVs in 2025.
BYD’s EVs accounted for 416,388 while PHEV sales reached 569,710, an increase of 39% and 76% from last year, respectively.
| BYD Seagull EV trim | Starting Price | Range (CLTC) |
| Vitality | Normal: $9,500 (69,800 yuan) Now: $8,000 (56,800 yuan) |
190 mi (305 km) |
| Freedom | $10,300 (75,800 yuan) | 190 mi (305 km) |
| Flying | $11,700 (85,800 yuan) | 252 mi (405 km) |
Perhaps even more importantly, BYD sold over 206,000 vehicles overseas in 2025, more than doubling from last year. The Seagull EV is also sold in other global markets like Mexico and Brazil as the Dolphin Mini.
Later this year, it will launch in Europe as the Dolphin Surf, with expected prices starting under £20,000 ($26,000). Although it may not be the cheapest EV, BYD’s executive vice president, Stella Li, recently told Autocar it will be “the best value” when it arrives.
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Tesla has new Model Y inventory available today in the US, just days after opening orders for what is supposed to be its most popular model.
This proves that demand is terrible and Tesla is trying to hide it.
On Friday, Tesla launched the new non-Launch Edition Model Y in North America.
Prior to the launch, only a fully loaded $60,000 Launch Edition Model Y was available to order since January, and had been delivered since early March.
Now, North American buyers are able to buy a much cheaper version of the new Model Y for $49,000.
Only the Model Y Long Range AWD is available for now, but that’s Tesla’s most popular model in North America.
At the time, we noted that this is a great demand test for Tesla in the US amid some critical brand issues due to CEO Elon Musk.
We only have a few metrics to track the demand of the new Model Y in the US:
- Delivery timelines on new orders
- Available inventory
- Discounts/incentives
For most US zip codes tested by Electrek with different Model Y configurations (wheels and paint colors), Tesla quotes delivery within “1-3 weeks”.
But we also found several zip codes on both the West Coast and the East Coast where Tesla claims it can deliver the new vehicle “today”:
This would point to Tesla already having vehicles in inventory despite launching it just 4 days ago.
But Tesla is hiding the inventory.
If you search for Model Y in Tesla’s new inventory, you can’t find any in the US at the time of writing:
However, Tesla is showing some units in inventory to people configuring new Model Ys.
Some potential buyers are reporting that Tesla has a tab that pops up and directs them to some new inventory available (via TroyTeslike on Patreon):
This confirms that Tesla already has new non-Launch Edition Model Y in inventory available for sale in the US – pointing to Tesla having no backlog of demand for the new vehicle.
Electrek’s Take
This is much worse than I thought. I thought that Tesla would build a backlog of demand for the new Model Y in the US from people who didn’t want the fully loaded version, but it looks like that backlog lasted 4 days.
Of course, it’s all because of Tesla and Elon, and brand destruction.
Many people who invested in the stock market lost a lot of money over the last few weeks, and these people often happen to be people who buy new cars.
Now, the only thing left is for Tesla to start offering discounts and subsidies financing – the latter likely coming first, as it is already the case with new Model 3 orders in the US.
The good news for Tesla is that if Trump continues to crash the stock market, the Fed will likely have to reduce rates, making Tesla’s 0% financing cheaper to subsidize.
That’s a fun balancing act.
Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla offer incentives on the new Model Y in the US within the next 2 weeks – way ahead of schedule.
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The new and improved 2026 Kia EV9 and 2025 EV6 are eligible for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, but one trim is excluded.
Do the Kia EV6 and EV9 qualify for the federal tax credit?
Kia’s first dedicated electric vehicle, the EV6, received some pretty major upgrades for its mid-cycle update this year.
The 2025 EV6 features a bigger battery providing more range (now up to 319 miles), a stylish interior and exterior redesign, and an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers.
Kia’s first three-row electric SUV, the EV9, also has a native NACS charging port and will be the first model year to offer a high-performance GT trim.
We got a good look at the EV9 GT at the LA Auto Show last year (check it out here). The sporty electric SUV boasts 501 hp, which is quite a bit more than the current GT-Line’s 379 hp. The added power is enough for the big-body SUV to move from 0 to 60 mph in just 4.3 seconds.
Although Kia America’s vice president of sales, Eric Watson, confirmed the EV6 and EV9 are now in “full-scale production” at its plant in West Point, Georgia, not all trims will qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit.
According to CarsDirect, Kia told dealers that the 2025 EV6 and 2026 EV9 GT trims wouldn’t be eligible for the credit. A spokesperson said the exclusion is because Kia builds the EV6 GT and EV9 GT in South Korea, while all other trims are assembled in Georgia.
If Trump’s 25% tariff on South Korea is still in effect when the GT models launch in the US, it could create a significant price gap between trims.
Despite this, you will likely still be able to take advantage of the credit through leasing. Kia, like many, is passing the $7,500 on through lease cash, which can significantly cut monthly payments.
Kia will reveal more info, including prices, closer to launch. Check back soon. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
With the new models arriving soon, Kia is offering clearance pricing on outgoing models. Monthly leases start as low as $179. You can use our links below to find deals on the Kia EV6 and EV9 near you.
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