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Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the next few months, but it raises more questions than it answers.

Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software releases

September 2024

  • v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between necessary interventions
  • v12.5.2 on AI3 computer (unified models for AI3 and AI4)
  • Actually Smart Summon
  • Cybertruck Autopark
  • Eye-tracking with sunglasses
  • End-to-End network on highway
  • Cybertruck FSD

October 2024

  • Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
  • v13 with ~6x improved miles between necessary interventions

Q1 2025

  • FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
  • FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)

Electrek’s Take

The main problem is improvement against what? Tesla has always refused to release FSD intervention data so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can achieve a “3x improvement in miles between necessary intervention.”

As we previously reported, we do have some crowdsourced data, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we might as well use that since Tesla refuses to release official data.

For v12.4, the CEO said that it will come without steering wheel nag and it will be able to drive “5 to 10x more miles per intervention“.

v12.4 never made it to a wide release and v12.5 was supposed to go wide release last month and it only made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the last time I checked.

Now, instead of a 5 to 10x increase on v12.4, which was a flop, he is now talking about a “~3x improvement” this month with the release of v12.5.

Let’s compare the data so far. Based on the crowdsourced data, the average of the v12.5.1 versions is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between critical disengagement.

This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between critical disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the last FSD version that went into a wide release earlier this year:

Keep in mind that to achieve Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it would likely need to be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between critical disengagement, aka 390x over the current data.

Based on Elon’s new timeline and compared to this data, we should be at around ~400 miles between “necessary interventions ” by the end of the month.

The term “necessary interventions” is also problematic and raises questions.

The crowdsourced data is also trying to distinguish “critical” disengagements and it makes sense since many disengagements have nothing to do with the level of safety in FSD. Some disengagement are due to comfort and frustration on the driver’s part.

With v12.5.1, a lot of the disengagement have to do with navigation errors and speed. The former, Tesla will certainly need to fix. The latter is more problematic as it actually influence the data.

Many FSD drivers complain that the latest update is drives extremely slow. This should help with the performance and reduce critical disengagement, but it will not help overall disengagement as many drivers just grow frustrated, myself included, and take control of the vehicle to start driving at more reasonable speeds.

So yes, as per my headline, this roadmap brings more questions than it answers mainly due to the fact that Tesla refuses to release intervention data and yet, it uses increases in the metric to track progress.

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Parker launches Mobile Electrification Technology Center training program

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Parker launches Mobile Electrification Technology Center training program

Last week, Parker Hannifin launched what they’re calling the industry’s first certified Mobile Electrification Technology Center to train mobile equipment technicians make the transition from conventional diesel engines to modern electric motors.

The electrification of mobile equipment is opening new doors for construction and engineering companies working in indoor, environmentally sensitive, or noise-regulated urban environments – but it also poses a new set of challenges that, while they mirror some of the challenges internal combustion faced a century ago, aren’t yet fully solved. These go beyond just getting energy to the equipment assets’ batteries, and include the integration of hydraulic implements, electronic controls, and the myriad of upfit accessories that have been developed over the last five decades to operate on 12V power.

At the same time, manufacturers and dealers have to ensure the safety of their technicians, which includes providing comprehensive training on the intricacies of high-voltage electric vehicle repair and maintenance – and that’s where Parker’s new mobile equipment training program comes in, helping to accelerate the shift to EVs.

“We are excited to partner with these outstanding distributors at a higher level. Their commitment to designing innovative mobile electrification systems aligns perfectly with our vision to empower machine manufacturers in reducing their environmental footprint while enhancing operational efficiency,” explains Mark Schoessler, VP of sales for Parker’s Motion Systems Group. “Their expertise in designing mobile electrification systems and their capability to deliver integrated solutions will help to maximize the impact of Parker’s expanding METC network.”

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The manufacturing equipment experts at Nott Company were among the first to go through the Parker Hannifin training program, certifying their technicians on Parker’s electric motors, drives, coolers, controllers and control systems.

“We are proud to be recognized for our unwavering dedication to advancing mobile electrification technologies and delivering cutting-edge solutions,” says Nott CEO, Markus Rauchhaus. “This milestone would not have been possible without our incredible partners, customers and the team at Nott Company.”

In addition to Nott, two other North American distributors (Depatie Fluid Power in Portage, Michigan, and Hydradyne in Fort Worth, Texas) have completed the Parker certification.

Electrek’s Take

electric bobcat track loader
T7X all-electric track loader at CES 2022; via Doosan Bobcat.

With the rise of electric equipment assets like Bobcat’s T7X compact track loader and E10e electric excavator that eliminate traditional hydraulics and rely on high-voltage battery systems, specialized electrical systems training is becoming increasingly important. Seasoned, steady hands with decades of diesel and hydraulic systems experience are obsolete, and they’ll need to learn new skills to stay relevant.

Certification programs like Parker’s are working to bridge that skills gap, equipping technicians with the skills to maximize performance while mitigating risks associated with high-voltage systems. Here’s hoping more of these start popping up sooner than later.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Parker Hannifin.

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ReVolt extended range electric semi trucks score their first customer

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ReVolt extended range electric semi trucks score their first customer

Based on a Peterbilt 579 commercial semi truck, the ReVolt EREV hybrid electric semi truck promises 40% better fuel economy and more than twice the torque of a conventional, diesel-powered semi. The concept has promise – and now, it has customers.

Austin, Texas-based ReVolt Motors scored its first win with specialist carrier Page Trucking, who’s rolling the dice on five of the Peterbilt 579-based hybrid big rigs — with another order for 15 more of the modified Petes waiting in the wings if the initial five work out.

The deal will see ReVolt’s “dual-power system” put to the test in real-world conditions, pairing its e-axles’ battery-electric torque with up to 1,200 miles of diesel-extended range.

ReVolt Motors team

ReVolt Motors team; via ReVolt.

The ReVolt team starts off with a Peterbilt, then removes the transmission and drive axle, replacing them with a large genhead and batteries. As the big Pete’s diesel engine runs (that’s right, kids – the engine stays in place), it creates electrical energy that’s stored in the trucks’ batteries. Those electrons then flow to the truck’s 670 hp e-axles, putting down a massive, 3500 lb-ft of Earth-moving torque to the ground at 0 rpm.

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The result is an electrically-driven semi truck that works like a big BMW i3 or other EREV, and packs enough battery capacity to operate as a ZEV (sorry, ZET) in ports and urban clean zones. And, more importantly, allows over-the-road drivers to hotel for up to 34 hours without idling the engine or requiring a grid connection.

That ability to “hotel” in the cab is incredibly important, especially as the national shortage of semi truck parking continues to worsen and the number of goods shipped across America’s roads continues to increase.

And, because the ReVolt trucks can hotel without the noise and emissions of diesel or the loss of range of pure electric, they can immediately “plug in” to existing long-haul routes without the need to wait for a commercial truck charging infrastructure to materialize.

“Drivers should not have to choose between losing their longtime routes because of changing regulatory environments or losing the truck in which they have already made significant investments,” explains Gus Gardner, ReVolt founder and CEO. “American truckers want their trucks to reflect their identity, and our retrofit technology allows them to continue driving the trucks they love while still making a living.”

If all of that sounds familiar, it’s probably because you’ve heard of Hyliion.

Hyliion electric semi truck

Hyliion Hypertruck ERX; via Hyliion.

Before it changed its focus to develop Carnot-cycle generators and gensets, Austin-based Hyliion built a number of EREV Peterbilts using the then-new 15L Cummins diesel as a generator and employing the same sort of battery and e-axle-arrangement as ReVolt.

In addition to being located in the same town and employing the same idea in the same Peterbilt 579 tractor, ReVolt even employs some of the same key players as Hyliion: both the company’s CTO, Chandra Patil, and its Director of Engineering, Blake Witchie, previously worked at Hyliion’s truck works.

Still, Hyliion made their choice when they shut down their truck business. ReVolt seems to have picked up the ball – and their first customer is eager to run with it.

“Our industry is undergoing a major transition, and fleet owners need practical solutions that make financial sense while reducing our environmental impact,” said Dan Titus, CEO of Page Trucking. “ReVolt’s hybrid drivetrain lowers our fuel costs, providing our drivers with a powerful and efficient truck, all without the need for expensive charging infrastructure or worrying about state compliance mandates. The reduced emissions also enable our customers to reduce their Scope 2 emissions.”

Page Trucking has a fleet of approximately 500 trucks in service, serving the agriculture, hazardous materials, and bulk commodities industries throughout Texas. And, if ReVolt’s EREV semis live up to their promise, expect them to operate a lot more than 20 of ’em.

SOURCES | IMAGES: ReVolt; via Power Progress, TTNews.

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Costco Executive members get MASSIVE $31,500 off Chevy Brightdrop van

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Costco Executive members get MASSIVE ,500 off Chevy Brightdrop van

With 272 miles of range and more room inside its walls than your first apartment, GM’s Chevy Brightdrop electric van is one of the best commercial EVs you can buy. And if you’re a Costco Executive member, you can get one for yourself or your business with an absolutely incredible $31,500 discount. (!)

Fleet electrification expert Tony Nisam took to LinkedIn yesterday to post a deal that he ran across at a Washington State Costco that stacks a $25,500 manufacturer rebate with $3,000 in “regular” Costco Member Savings, $2,750 in “LIMITED-TIME” Manufacturer to Member Incentives, plus an additional $250 for Costco Executive members.

Do a bit of math (add up 25,500 + 3,000 + $2,750 + 250), and you’ll calculate an almost unheard of $31,500 discount on one of the best, most capable commercial vans on the market – ICE or electric. And that’s before you factor in the 0% interest financing (72 mo.) being advertised at Blade Chevrolet, the Mount Vernon, Washington, where VIN 2G58J2TY6S9104313 (the exact van shown, below) is shown as stock number 16757.

If you’re not a Costco member yet and you’re looking for a new truck for your business or even a unique #vanlife ride with zero emissions, modern tech, and a nationwide dealer network, GM makes that $130 Executive membership seem like a no-brainer.

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Kind of a big deal

“But wait,” says the floating, disembodied ghost of the great Billy Mays. “There’s more!” In addition to the $31,500 worth of discounts Costco Executive members get, there are deals to be had on chargers AND a number of other state and local utility incentives your business might qualify for, bringing the cost of adding a new Chevy Brightdrop to your fleet even lower. In northern Illinois, for example, ComEd commercial customers can get up to $7,500 in rebates for a new Brightdrop Zevo van.

Is a $39,000 price cut enough to get you to take a look at a new Brightdrop? At $45,235 (from a starting price of $84,235), can you afford not to? Head down to the comments and let us know.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Tony Nisam.

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