Connect with us

Published

on

The best upsets are the ones no one sees coming.

Northern Illinois‘ stunning defeat of Notre Dame certainly fits the bill. Just a week ago, the Irish looked like a surefire playoff team after upending Texas A&M on the road.

The best upsets aren’t about luck.

There was nothing unconventional in NIU’s game plan. The Huskies were the more physical, more fundamentally sound, more deserving team Saturday.

The best upsets cast our collective consciousness backward, toward the other moments when the seemingly impossible suddenly became real.

In this case, NIU didn’t have to work too hard. Notre Dame is good for one of these every few years.

OK, so maybe Saturday’s stunner didn’t check every box — much of the game felt like watching two aging walruses attempt to nudge each other off a rock — but after a Week 1 that was mostly chalk, it served as the first serious twist in the story of the 2024 season.

(Technically Florida State‘s Week 0 defeat was the first big upset, but the Noles’ lawyers have filed a motion to quash any mentions of the 2024 season.)

It was a fitting release for a nation primed for chaos after Saturday’s early slate teased so many near misses.

In New Orleans, Tulane had No. 17 Kansas State on the ropes well into the second half, and only a controversial penalty kept the Green Wave from tying the game in the final moment.

In Happy Valley, James Franklin tried to put to rest the narrative that he beats all the pushovers but can’t win the big one by, instead, losing to one of those pushovers. Bowling Green took a 24-20 lead well into the third quarter before No. 8 Penn State finally found its footing.

In Stillwater, Oklahoma, Bobby Petrino’s subtle attempt to orchestrate his own Macbeth-like takeover at Arkansas took some wild turns, as the Razorbacks looked poised to actually win on the road against No. 16 Oklahoma State. But the Cowboys reeled off 21 straight points to open the second half and finished off the come-from-behind win with an Ollie Gordon II touchdown in overtime.

Shortly after kickoff in South Bend, Indiana, order had been restored elsewhere, leaving the Irish center stage, just in time for the nation to watch them run headlong into a brick wall.

It was beautiful.

Not because people were eager to laugh at Notre Dame’s misfortune. That’s just a pleasant byproduct. But because, for all the excitement of the sport’s return in Week 1, the real race to the playoff doesn’t begin until we get a massive dose of the unexpected, a twist so unlikely it forces us to reconsider everything we’d held as inherently true, a moment when we all sit back and think, “Jesus, take the wheel.”

Or, maybe that only happens after watching Payton Thorne throw another interception.

The offseason, after all, is an endless parade of assurances that this ridiculous sport is still girded by some measure of logic, but deep down, we know better. Every year, some poor team wanders onto a field some September Saturday assuming the day will unfold like every Saturday before, and then some upstart from the MAC drops a piano on its head.

On this Saturday, that piano was destined to find Notre Dame.

Riley Leonard, a hero just seven days ago, threw costly interceptions.

The Notre Dame defense, which had utterly bludgeoned Texas A&M a week ago, couldn’t get off the field as Northern Illinois marched 31 yards on 11 plays, chewing up clock before ultimately booting a short field goal to take the lead with 31 seconds to play.

On a field where some of the most legendary players in the sport’s history have suited up, it was NIU’s Antario Brown who stole the spotlight with 225 total yards and a touchdown.

It would’ve been enough to shock the fans at Notre Dame Stadium to their core, if many of them hadn’t also been on hand for the Marshall or Stanford games in 2022.

But the good news for Notre Dame is, while it was the first to suffer the cruelty of college football’s fickle nature, it will not be the last.

It might be Alabama. The Tide flirted with disaster against South Florida, as Alabama put on a near shot-for-shot remake of last year’s quagmire as a gift to Nick Saban, who had the field at Bryant Denny named after him Saturday. Instead, Alabama scored 28 in the fourth quarter and won 42-16.

It might be Oklahoma. The Sooners couldn’t muster a lick of offense against lowly Houston but survived after forcing a safety on the Cougars’ last-gasp drive.

It could surely be Oregon, who for the second straight week struggled to put away a team from Idaho, needing a field goal in the final minute on Saturday to escape Boise State, 37-34. The Ducks needed a punt return and a kick return for a touchdown to stay undefeated, which is probably not ideal before they’ve played a single Big Ten game.

It might be Georgia or Ohio State or Ole Miss. They all won handily against overmatched opposition in Week 2, but the odds will shift again in the future, and eventually, we’ll be blindsided again by a score we never could’ve imagined.

That’s the other great thing about a truly stunning upset. In illuminating how wrong our assumptions were, it also serves to remind us that we’ll be wrong again.

And it will be glorious.

Jump to:
Back to the future | Vibe shifts | Cy-Hawk thriller
Tennessee-NC State takeaways | Who wants to win?
Heisman five | Leaf it to the refs | Under the radar

Back to the future

Physicist Stephen Hawking theorized that, although likely unprovable, time travel was indeed possible.

Well, he was wrong. The first two weeks of this season have proved not only that it is possible, but also that we’ve somehow all tumbled through a wormhole back to 1994.

The proof? Texas is 2-0. Nebraska is 2-0. Miami is 2-0. Also Oasis is getting back together.

The Longhorns went to Ann Arbor and dispatched Michigan with ease. Quinn Ewers threw for 246 yards and three touchdowns, the defense created three takeaways and the social media department delivered the dagger.

It was a reminder that life has changed in short order for the Wolverines, who went from a national title in January to an utter lack of identity in September. The offense has struggled under QB Davis Warren, who in ’80s movie fashion somehow was elevated from the mailroom to the C suite, possibly due to a wish on an enchanted fortune teller machine or a mannequin coming to life. The defense, supposedly a strength, did little to disrupt Texas’ attack. And head coach Sherrone Moore has been hampered by not having the signals for every opponent Michigan faces.

Nebraska’s rise back to coherence took a big step forward Saturday with a 28-10 win over Colorado. The outcome was particularly surprising to Buffs coach Deion Sanders, who felt his team dominated in all three phases of the game: TikTok, Instagram and number of players related to Deion. Instead, it was Nebraska’s freshman phenom Dylan Raiola who led the charge by throwing for 185 yards and a touchdown and winning a Patrick Mahomes lookalike contest at halftime.

And Miami kept rolling in a 56-9 dispatching of Florida A&M, rushing for 225 yards and four touchdowns.

Texas, Nebraska and Miami are all 2-0 for the first time since 2016, which as long as you don’t look up the results for the rest of that season is great news for three programs eager to return to historic success.


Week 2 vibe shifts

Each week of the college football season results not only in major shake-ups to the rankings, but also subtle tweaks that might not be so obvious. That’s why we track not just wins and losses but vibes. We’re here to capture the next big trends and anticipate the next stunning collapses before they happen.

Trending up: Champagne shortages in Central New York

After Kyle McCord threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 1 win over Ohio, Syracuse head coach Fran Brown said he planned to send a bottle of champagne to Ohio State‘s Ryan Day for allowing McCord to hit the transfer portal.

We’ll expect a full magnum of the good stuff headed to the Buckeyes’ coach after Saturday’s performance by McCord, who threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in an upset over No. 23 Georgia Tech. McCord is the first ACC QB to throw for 350 yards and four scores in consecutive games since Kenny Pickett did it in three straight for Pitt in 2021. He ended the season as a Heisman finalist.

Reminder: A QB can’t be a real champagne player if he didn’t transfer from the Columbus region of Ohio.

McCord was widely cast as the fall guy for Ohio State’s inability to beat Michigan last season, and the Buckeyes moved on to Kansas State transfer Will Howard, which feels a lot like taking a major media company with international name recognition and rebranding as X. But who would do that?

Regardless, Brown has Syracuse riding high at 2-0, but that’s nothing new. Syracuse is now 13-2 in August and September games since 2021. The problem? The Orange are just 7-18 after that.

Trending down: Fast-food metaphors

After a Week 1 win against West Virginia, Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki compared his offense to a Dairy Queen Blizzard — vanilla ice cream with a few of your favorite candies mixed in — but Saturday’s performance against Bowling Green often looked more like something ordered from a late-night drive-through at 2 a.m.

Drew Allar was just 13-of-20 passing with a late interception, and Penn State trailed Bowling Green well into the second half. Luckily for Penn State, Kotelnicki remembered that Nicholas Singleton is the Twix bar of offensive mix-ins, and the tailback scored twice in the final 22 minutes of the game, including a game-clinching 41-yard scamper with 4:09 to play, and the Nittany Lions survived 34-27.

Trending up: Finding a true friend in this cruel world

It’s a cliché of melodrama to have two star-crossed lovers finally find each other, running across a verdant field or a sandy beach before a long-awaited embrace.

But change the setting to a blocked field goal return and suddenly what was once a trope of cheesy TV now feels like a heartwarming moment of pure joy.

Well, not for Baylor.

play

0:55

Utah blocks a Baylor FG and returns it for a TD

After Utah blocks Jack Bouwmeester’s field goal kick, Tao Johnson returns it 77-yard for a touchdown.

The 77-yard return for the score put Utah up 7-0, and the Utes went on to win 23-12. On the downside, QB Cam Rising left the game in the second quarter with a hand injury after a shove from a Baylor defender forced him to burst through a bank of watercoolers like the Kool-Aid man. So, probably shouldn’t high-five him for a while.

But for the losing Bears, maybe the real field goal was the friends we made along the way.

Trending down: Auburn boosters’ liquid assets

There is some good news for Auburn after another embarrassing home loss, this time 21-14 to Cal. Hugh Freeze was hired in the hopes the Tigers would finally have a coach who could beat Nick Saban, and as of 2024, there’s a strong chance Auburn will not lose any more games to Saban. So, mission accomplished.

On the downside, however, Auburn does seem to be losing a whole lot to everyone else.

Payton Thorne threw four interceptions in Saturday’s loss, a seemingly adamant statement that, no, the Auburn offense won’t be much better in Year 2 under Freeze. Auburn is now 24-27 over the past five seasons, and the War Eagle has been downgraded to a pigeon with a mild gluten intolerance.

But Freeze, himself, should be particularly concerned. In his past 16 games vs. FBS competition — a span dating back to his Liberty tenure — he’s just 5-11 with two home losses to New Mexico State and an offense that has averaged less than 24 points per game.

Trending up: Fashion fights

Each year, Western Kentucky turns its home opener into a “white out,” with the team donning white helmets and jerseys and fans showing up wearing white.

And this year, Eastern Kentucky decided that it had a tradition to uphold, too: Spiting a rival over something really petty.

That the whole thing feels like the B-plot of a “Sex and the City” episode is just delightful (EKU is such a Samantha!) but the Hilltoppers got the last laugh, winning 31-0, and finally decided to settle down with Mr. Big.

Trending down: The water table in Florida

What do you have to say for yourselves now, rural Central Florida basement dwellers?

Oh, it was fun having Billy Napier to kick around for a week after Florida was trounced by Miami at home, but it just goes to show how little the basement bloggers really know. Napier was never in any real danger because former university president Ben Sasse had already used Napier’s buyout money on a walk-in humidor and a bunch of Powerball tickets.

Regardless, Napier is back on the right track after the Gators dispatched with Samford 45-7 on Saturday behind 456 yards and three touchdowns from program savior DJ Lagway. Oh, sure, Samford is an FCS team, but we bet nobody said that to Will Muschamp in 2013.

The point is, if you cellar dwellers can hear Napier over the constant humming of your dehumidifiers and the infernal chugging of your sump pump, he’s just fine in spite of what you think.

Holding steady: Dabo

Clemson utterly dominated App State on Saturday, 66-20, behind five touchdown passes from Cade Klubnik. It was a stark contrast from the Week 1 drubbing by Georgia when the offense couldn’t string together a decent drive. Clemson was so much better in Week 2, it was almost as if it had transformed somehow, stepped through some — doorway? gateway? window? — ah, we can’t think of any word that would describe moving from one unhappy place to a new, better place. Alas, Swinney wouldn’t have read it anyway.

Trending up: Pillaging mishaps

Colorado State debuted its battering ram on Saturday, and here’s an important lesson for you kids out there considering going to war with Scotland in the 15th Century: Watch the recall on these bad boys.

While we typically endorse all sideline weaponry — Oregon State‘s chainsaw, Nevada‘s trident, Brian Kelly’s temper — bruising the kidney of a random game ops guy with your battering ram continues an early season trend of epic fails for teams hoping to storm a castle after USC‘s Week 1 hype video got the history of the Trojan horse all wrong.

If this keeps up, by Week 10, Wisconsin will install an iron maiden at Camp Randall and Dabo Swinney will have accused the rest of the ACC of witchcraft.

Trending up: Celebrity naming rights

FIU kicked off its first game at the newly minted Pitbull Stadium in Week 2, demolishing Central Michigan 52-16. It was FIU’s biggest margin of victory against an FBS foe since 2019.

Clearly Mr. Worldwide was an inspiration to the Panthers, which should now be a model for other struggling programs. UMass should sell naming rights to The Pixies (or at least have them play “UMass” at halftime, it’s a banger), Akron could turn things around with a cash infusion from LeBron James, and Temple could be an American Conference contender if it played its home games at Hitchhiking Robot Memorial Stadium.


Ferentz returns, Iowa falters

Kirk Ferentz returned from a one-game suspension to much fanfare — and also 50 Cent’s “Many Men (Wish Death).” He then made it rain from the press box, which in Iowa terms translates into nine punts and less than 100 yards passing.

Still, the Hawkeyes welcomed their coach back by jumping out to a 19-7 lead midway through the third quarter — a seemingly insurmountable margin given Iowa State hadn’t topped 17 in a Cy-Hawk game since 2017.

But times are changing in Iowa. Brian Ferentz is gone, which means plenty of offensive excitement like interceptions, runs up the middle for 2 yards and all the time of possession you can stand. In other words, Iowa didn’t score again.

The Cyclones, on the other hand, found some late mojo thanks to a 75-yard TD pass from Rocco Becht to Jaylin Noel, then in keeping with state law, limited the fourth quarter to just two field goals, including a 54-yard game winner with just 6 seconds to go.

After losing six straight in the series, Iowa State has now won two of the past three meetings with Iowa. But even more embarrassing for the Hawkeyes, Iowa State also finished with 21 more punt yards.


1. Nico Iamaleava is the clear face of the Vols, and hanging more than half a hundred on a top-25 opponent is genuinely impressive, even if he wasn’t at the top of his game in Saturday’s 51-10 win. He threw for 211 yards and two touchdowns and tossed two picks.

But the real story as Tennessee sets its sights on a playoff berth — or perhaps something more — is this defense is going to be a problem for a lot of teams. James Pearce Jr. is a magnet for double-teams, but he’s hardly alone on the Vols’ front, which racked up 13 tackles for loss against the Wolfpack. In all, NC State managed just 10 first downs, 143 total yards of offense and coughed up three turnovers. And somehow it was worse than those stats suggest.

Anyway, here’s hoping for the defense to shine in some low-scoring affairs the rest of the way, because once you’ve heard “Rocky Top” for the 200th time in the same game, you really don’t need to hear it again for a while.

2. Never trust a giant tub of mayonnaise with your special lady.

3. Tubby did deliver a few boxes of mayo-infused chocolate ganache macarons to the press box at halftime. Aside from Mr. Peanut, you rarely see that type of sophistication and class in a mascot.

4. Grayson McCall‘s final line: 15-of-22 for 104 yards and a pick-six.

It’s the worst performance Tennessee fans have seen by someone with a mullet not involving Billy Ray Cyrus.

5. NC State has perpetually lived at a base camp below college football’s summit, and each time it sets off for the peak, it’s kicked back down in the most agonizing way possible. So it was again on Saturday, with the Wolfpack’s latest chance to prove they belong on the short list of playoff contenders consumed by an avalanche of turnovers and busted coverages.

That’s the nice thing about NC State. It stays the same, so the rest of us can see how far we’ve come.


Anybody want to win?

Normally, a PittCincinnati game would simply be the easiest way to measure whether it’s better to put French fries inside a sandwich or cinnamon-flavored ground beef on top of spaghetti, but Saturday’s showdown was something so much more nauseating.

First, Cincinnati used an ugly Pitt interception and a failed fourth-down try near midfield to build a 27-6 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the third quarter. Then its defense fell apart. Pitt engineered three straight touchdown drives but opted to go for two on each of the last two scores. It failed both times, thus leaving the Bearcats ahead 27-25.

But Cincinnati looked that gift dead in the eye and said, “No, thanks.” Then it immediately got its foot stuck in a bucket and tumbled down a flight of stairs. Worse, Pitt faced a fourth-and-3 with 1:22 left to play, but Cincinnati was flagged for disconcerting signals (which, to be fair, was about the least disconcerting thing Cincinnati had done in the fourth quarter) giving the Panthers a first down and, ultimately, setting up a go-ahead field goal.

The end result: Pitt 28, Cincinnati 27. Afterward, Pat Narduzzi and Scott Satterfield retreated to the parking lot and took turns stepping on a rake.


Leaf it to the refs

Kansas State‘s offense was far from crisp early Saturday, but linebacker Austin Romaine ensured it was still salad days in Manhattan, Kansas. Lettuce tell you how the Wildcats pulled off the comeback win.

play

0:40

K-State takes 4th-quarter lead on thrilling scoop-and-score

Kansas State goes ahead in the fourth quarter thanks to a clutch forced fumble, recovery and touchdown against Tulane.

Tulane was driving deep into Wildcats territory when Romaine remained as cool as an iceberg, shredding the O-line, sacking QB Darian Mensah and forcing a fumble. He scooped the ball, and with a full head of steam, he sprinted down the field endived into the end zone for the go-ahead TD. The play was downright radicchio-lous.

But lest any fans leaf early, Tulane wasn’t ready to kale it a day. Mensah wedged a throw to Yulkeith Brown just beyond the goal line for what appeared to be a game-tying touchdown, but the refs threw a flag for offensive pass interference, reversing the play before VJ Payne collard one last heave for an INT to seal the 34-27 win.

play

0:38

Tulane’s late TD catch called back for offensive pass interference

Tulane nearly ties the game against Kansas State with a last-second touchdown effort, but the score gets reversed due to a pass interference call.

There’s no dressing this up: For K-State, the victory was no little gem, even if Tulane will be green with envy for weeks to come.


Heisman five

Two weeks into the season is far too soon to properly handicap the Heisman race, but it seems unlikely anyone at NC State is going to win it.

1. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty

The best player through two weeks has unquestionably been Jeanty. After rushing for 267 yards in the opener against Georgia Southern, Jeanty came within an eyelash of pushing Boise State past No. 7 Oregon with another 200 yards of offense and three touchdowns. Jeanty’s 459 rushing yards is the most by an FBS player through two games since Navy’s Shun White had 476 in 2008.

2. Miami QB Cam Ward

Sure, Miami played FCS Florida A&M in Week 2, which was hardly a major challenge. On the other hand, the No. 12 Canes were just 13-12 as a top-12 team since 2006 entering Saturday’s action, so anything that isn’t an epic disaster seems like progress. Ward was good — 304 passing yards, four total touchdowns — but the most important takeaway is, in the year 2024, Miami is the ACC’s standard bearer. Better late than never.

3. Texas QB Quinn Ewers

Three years ago, Ewers was college football’s version of the kid who hangs out in front of a 7-11 and bums smokes off people. Now, he’s a deputy sheriff in Fansville and just shredded one of the supposed best defenses in the country. It’s affirming to see such growth in our nation’s youth.

4. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter

He had nine catches for 89 yards, broke up a pass and had a tackle for loss. It all begs the question: Why doesn’t Colorado just build the whole team out of Travis Hunter?

5. Syracuse QB Kyle McCord

There’s a lot of John Hughes plotting to what’s happening at Syracuse right now. McCord gets dumped by the cutest girl at school (Ohio State), unexpectedly shows up at prom with one of the kids from the loser’s lunch table (Syracuse) and suddenly everyone sees things in a new light. McCord finds happiness in a relationship that isn’t purely about status, while Syracuse borrows its dad’s 1963 Corvette and starts wearing sunglasses indoors. We haven’t figured out how to get Molly Ringwald involved yet, but there’s a lot of season left to go.


Under-the-radar game of the week

It had been nearly five full years since the Division II Clarion Golden Eagles won on their home field. In the interim — a span of 1,798 days or three Ben Affleck-Jennifer Lopez marriages — we endured a global pandemic, the milk crate challenge and the entire Jeff Hafley era at Boston College.

But, thankfully, our long national nightmare is over. Clarion gave the home crowd (though no attendance was actually reported) something to cheer about, knocking off Lincoln (Pa.) University 20-9 on Thursday.

Clarion is actually off to a 2-0 start to the season, despite finishing with a losing record every year since 2015.

Clarion’s home-field win bodes well for other things that have been dormant since 2019, including Fyre Festival documentaries, basic cable and Clemson‘s offense.

So, pop on your favorite version of “Old Town Road” and crack open a White Claw. It’s feeling like old times.


Under-the-radar play of the week

There wasn’t a ton of speed on the field for Duke‘s double-OT win over Northwestern, but a rabbit loose in the end zone provided some needed athleticism in the second half.

So, to sum up: A cat mascot chasing a wild rabbit was followed immediately by a fumble that led to a game-tying field goal. After that, all that happened was a field goal with 14 seconds remaining to send the game to overtime, a 25-yard Maalik Murphy TD pass to send it to a second OT, another Murphy score and a Duke sack that sealed the game sometime around 2 a.m. Eastern, all on a field Northwestern built next to the lake using Lincoln logs and some loose wiring swiped from O’Hare Airport.

Continue Reading

Sports

Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

Published

on

By

Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

LAS VEGAS — Goalie Carter Hart, one of five 2018 Canada world junior hockey players acquitted of sexual assault in July, made his first NHL appearance in nearly two years Tuesday night and received an enthusiastic reaction from Golden Knights fans during pregame introductions.

Hart certainly received the loudest response before Vegas’ home game against Chicago, and if there were any boos, they were difficult to hear.

Some fans also held signs supportive of Hart.

Hart was the first of those five players to agree to an NHL contract. The league ruled those players were eligible to sign deals beginning Oct. 15 and to play starting Dec. 1. Hart signed a two-year, $4 million contract and has been working with the club’s American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.

After he agreed to sign, Hart read a statement to reporters that, in part, said he wanted “to show the community my true character and who I am and what I’m about.”

Hart was asked Monday what steps he has taken to fulfill that pledge.

“There’s been a few things we’ve talked about,” Hart said. “We did a thing there in Henderson helping out the homeless. There’s some things we’ve talked about throughout the season. Whatever I can do to help, I’m happy to help.”

Giving Hart his first start at home could help ease him into what could be a rocky reception around the league. After facing the Blackhawks, Vegas goes on a five-game trip against Eastern Conference teams, including a Dec. 11 stop at Hart’s former Philadelphia team.

He worked in Henderson on getting back into NHL game shape. Hart appeared in three games and went 1-2.

“I’ve worked my [butt] off to get back to this point,” Hart said. “For me, the key is preparation and I’ve done everything I can to be prepared.”

It was a tough start against the Blackhawks. Less than a minute after the Golden Knights scored, Chicago’s Oliver Moore found the back of the net against Hart on the Blackhawks’ second shot on goal.

He gave up a second-period goal when he left the crease to clear the puck. His pass instead went directly to Tyler Bertuzzi, who scored over Hart and defenseman Noah Hanifin.

But Hart made 15 saves through the first two periods and the score was 2-2 entering intermission.

The 27-year-old last played in an NHL game Jan. 20, 2024, for Philadelphia. Hart played six seasons for the Flyers, going 96-93-29 with a .906 save percentage and 2.94 goals-against average.

“The purpose of Henderson was to get him back into live reps,” Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy said. “He can practice with us with NHL shooters, but traffic around the net, screens, all that stuff is sometimes hard to replicate, especially when you haven’t played that often. We’re less worried about the results, more getting reps, getting used to that stuff.”

The Golden Knights could use the help in net, especially with starting goalie Adin Hill on injured reserve because of a lower-body injury and his return possibly weeks away. Akira Schmid has received the majority of the work with Hill out and is 9-2-4 with a .896 save percentage and 2.51 GAA.

Vegas had lost four straight games before defeating San Jose 4-3 on Saturday night.

Cassidy said the upcoming schedule works in the Golden Knights’ favor in terms of not overloading the goalies.

“Akira’s played well, too, so we have to keep mindful he has to stay sharp,” Cassidy said. “So I’m sure you’ll see a lot of both goalies, but Carter’s waited a long time to play, so he’s definitely going to get his share of starts.”

Continue Reading

Sports

Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

Published

on

By

Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.

We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.

Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).

That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.

The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”

That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.

But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.

The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.

Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.

It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).

That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.

Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.

But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.

Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)

And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?

This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.

Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…


We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.

For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?

Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.

As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)

Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?

That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.

This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.


A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.

Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).

The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”

What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.

Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.

Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.

We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…

  • SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.

  • FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.

  • Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.

  • FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.

So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?

We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.

(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)

But, speaking of Alabama…


4. Championship game participants

Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?

This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).

OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.

So, what happens if Alabama loses?

The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.

Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.

It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.


Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.

But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.

Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State

Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy

Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF

Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five

Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd

FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th

There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.

Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.

Continue Reading

Sports

CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

Published

on

By

CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

Welcome to the party, James Madison.

With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.

If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.

At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.

A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.

At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.

Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt


Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.

The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin


Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.

Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia


ACC

Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.

Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.


Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Continue Reading

Trending