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The crimes of Lucy Letby are unprecedented in modern British history.

The mushrooming cloud of expert commentary and online conspiracy theories about her guilt is equally unusual.

The public inquiry into the circumstances surrounding Letby‘s crimes, which was set up by the government last year following her conviction, will begin hearings at Liverpool Town Hall on Tuesday.

But the inquiry will not address the question – a growing one in the minds of many – of Letby’s guilt.

The former neonatal nurse was sentenced to life imprisonment last year for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder six more at the Countess of Chester Hospital between the summers of 2015 and 2016.

At a recent retrial she was convicted of attempting to murder another baby.

It confirmed her as the most prolific child serial killer in modern British history.

The judge said she was guilty of a “cruel, calculated and cynical campaign of child murder involving the smallest and most vulnerable of children”.

She had, he said, “a deep malevolence bordering on sadism”.

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‘You will spend rest of your life in prison’

Letby’s attempts to appeal against her conviction have been rejected by judges. She has appointed a new legal team and plans to take her case to the Criminal Cases Review Commission.

Her new lawyer Mark McDonald posted last week: “The day after Lucy was convicted I raised concerns. I was attacked for speaking out, even reported to my professional body.

“There are many hurdles to overcome in coming years but one day justice will be done and those wrongly convicted will be freed.”

The development had added fuel to the campaign being waged by an unlikely alliance in support of Letby’s case.

Conviction ‘not safe’

In May, before Letby’s retrial began, a 13,000-word article in the New Yorker magazine raised questions about her initial conviction. It mobilised new recruits to the army of armchair Letby pundits.

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Many of those amateur detectives turned up at Manchester Crown Court this summer to sit in the public gallery and hear the case play out.

Perhaps more significantly, a number of expert commentators, doctors and statisticians, have raised their voices in protest, in particular over the way data was presented at the original trial.

Many of their concerns predate the Letby case and, while they accept they did not sit through all of the evidence in the 10 months of that trial, they do believe reasonable doubt exists.

Dr Jane Hutton is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick and an expert in the use of medical data in court.

Jane Hutton
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Jane Hutton

She was one of two dozen experts who wrote to the government asking that the Letby inquiry be delayed or broadened.

They believe a failure to look beyond Letby risks the inquiry missing other potential causes of death of vulnerable babies in hospital.

“I am of the opinion that the conviction is not safe because of the number of statistical problems I’ve seen and because other specialists from other areas have voiced similar concerns from the basis of their own professions,” she told Sky News.

“The concern is that by taking the conviction as safe and focusing only on Lucy Letby, the reasons for the increase in the number of deaths and collapses will not be fully explored and therefore there may be lessons that could be learned which will not be learned.”

What was the evidence against Lucy Letby at her trial?

‘Distressing’ and ‘offensive’

But this increasing drumbeat of support for Letby’s cause has been labelled “distressing” and “offensive” by those who represent the families of the babies Letby was convicted of attacking.

Tamlin Bolton, who represents six of the families affected, said: “I think the facts are very clear. She has been convicted of these crimes. She has exhausted the appeals process.

“Those that have been privy to the full remit of evidence, that includes the families, the jurors and the judges in the Court of Appeal, have all maintained her guilt.

“Anything outside of that, those that haven’t seen or read or heard the entirety of the evidence, it’s merely speculation.”

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From August 2023: How police caught Letby

She said a lot of families had been unaware of what was going on at the Countess of Chester Hospital at the time their babies died. She said they wanted transparency and accountability.

The inquiry chair, Lady Justice Thirlwall, has said her aim is to ensure vital lessons are learned and to make sure that no-one else suffers what the families have gone through.

In response to the calls to delay or alter the terms of the inquiry, a spokesperson said it would begin on schedule and “will follow the terms of reference set by the secretary of state”.

Will inquiry provide answers?

A government spokesperson said: “This was a horrendous case and there were clear failings across the NHS and with regulators.

“The Thirlwall Inquiry will review all aspects of the case and the terms of reference were agreed following wide-ranging engagement with its chair, the families affected and other stakeholders including NHS England.

“The inquiry will play an important role in identifying learnings following events at the Countess of Chester Hospital.”

Read more:
The prisoners who will never be released
Parents of Letby’s victims finally given voice

When Letby was found guilty initially, Dame Ruth May, chief nursing officer for England, said the crimes were “appalling” and a “terrible betrayal of the trust placed in her”.

“On behalf of all of us I would like to express our profound apologies to the families for all they have been through,” she added.

“The NHS is fully committed to doing everything we can to prevent anything like this ever happening again, and we welcome the independent inquiry announced by the Department of Health and Social Care to help ensure we learn every possible lesson from this awful case.”

To those who support Letby, the inquiry will be operating in a parallel universe, removed from the fundamental question of her guilt.

To the families of those babies, who live with the great pain of all, there has never been any suggestion of motive or any flicker of remorse. The inquiry might at least provide some answers.

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

A 12-year-old girl who died after an incident of self-harm was failed on multiple levels, an inquest jury has found.

Warning: This story contains references to self-harm and suicide

Mia Lucas, who died in January 2024, was found unresponsive at an NHS children’s psychiatric unit after developing a rare neurological disorder that had been left undiagnosed.

The jury at Sheffield Coroner’s Court heard the girl was found at the Becton Centre, part of Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust.

She had been placed there after being sectioned while suffering an “acute psychotic episode” during an assessment at the Queen’s Medical Centre (QMC) in Nottingham.

On Thursday, the jury found that the failure to undertake a lumbar puncture at QMC before her transfer to the Becton Centre “possibly contributed to Mia’s death”.

A lumbar puncture involves a needle being inserted into your lower back to find out if symptoms are caused by a brain or spine condition.

Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA

The jury also said there was a failure at the Becton Centre to respond adequately to Mia’s risk of self-harm.

Professor Marta Cohen told the jury Mia’s cause of death was “compression of the neck” but she had now added that this was caused by “acute psychosis”, which was caused by “autoimmune encephalitis”, an inflammation of the brain that can cause extreme psychiatric symptoms and is treatable.

The autoimmune encephalitis diagnosis emerged during the nine-day inquest after a pathologist revealed she had received new post-mortem results.

The revelation prompted shock in the courtroom and tears from Mia’s family members in the public gallery.

The condition was described as “complex and rare”, according to consultant paediatric neurologist Mike Taylor.

He added that there was a low level of suspicion Mia had it, while being assessed at QMC, and told the court that experts had to consider the very severe treatment side effects, which included death.

Mia’s mother, Chloe Hayes, told Sky News she was unhappy at how the Becton Centre had supervised her daughter.

Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA

“All they had to do was watch her. I actually never got told the truth about the attempts that Mia made [to self-harm] until after she died,” she said.

“If I’d have known the truth I wouldn’t have left Mia there. And I think she had so much to live for. I don’t think she knew what she was doing.”

In a statement, Mrs Hayes added that she wanted people to know her daughter’s extreme behaviour was only evident in the final few weeks of her life.

“For the other 12 years, she was a beautiful soul who loved life and loved her family, and that’s how we want her to be remembered,” she said, describing Mia as a “happy, fun, friendly girl who had so much to live for.”

NHS Trusts apologise for Mia’s death

In a statement, Dr Manjeet Shehmar, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, offered “heartfelt condolences to Mia’s family for the loss of their daughter”.

She continued: “We accept the coroner’s outcome in court today and apologise to Mia’s family for not identifying autoimmune encephalitis while she was in our care. While this is an incredibly rare condition and initial tests were negative, we recognise that further testing may have had an impact on her future, for which we are truly sorry.”

Dr Shehmar said that in future cases of suspected possible autoimmune encephalitis, a lumbar puncture will be performed.

The trust will also “strengthen training and guidance for staff internally and review current published evidence of acute psychotic episodes in children and young people”.

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Pic: Family handout/PA
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Pic: Family handout/PA

Dr Jeff Perring, executive medical director at Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Our thoughts are with Mia’s family and everyone who is grieving her loss in such tragic circumstances.

“We are deeply sorry for Mia’s death and recognise the profound impact this has had on those who loved her.”

The trust has carried out a thorough review of Mia’s care and made “significant changes” at the Becton Centre, he added.

“We will continue to work with children, young people, their families and carers to listen to, learn and take action from their experiences.

“The inquest has been important to understand fully the circumstances surrounding Mia’s death. We will now carefully reflect on the evidence heard and the coroner’s conclusions to ensure we continue to provide safe and compassionate care.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. Alternatively, you can call Mind’s support line on 0300 102 1234, or NHS on 111.

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour’s election plans

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour's election plans

Day two after a budget is always an important moment.

This is when the nerds and boffins of Britain’s fiscal thinktanks assemble to deliver their snap verdict on the chancellor’s decisions.

The moment is more important than ever when, as was certainly the case this time, the budget is a big one.

So what did the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Resolution Foundation make of this year’s budget?

Well, as you’d probably expect, they both fell short of distilling it into a single soundbite, but in broad terms, they both sounded somewhat positive.

Money latest: Budget blow to holidays

Yes, there were plenty of big provisos. The head of the IFS, Helen Miller, said Labour have broken their manifesto pledge not to raise National Insurance.

More on Budget 2025

The Resolution Foundation argued that if only the chancellor had raised the basic rate of income tax instead of freezing personal allowances, it would have made the tax rise considerably fairer and more progressive.

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Treasury minister vs Ed Conway

And that’s before one gets into the criticism of some of the other bits and pieces from the red book – the structure of the EV tax, for instance (why doesn’t it try to penalise congestion?), or of the mansion tax (why not just overhaul council tax altogether?).

But for the most part, these closely-followed institutions seemed pretty supportive of this year’s budget – more so, certainly, than they were last year.

Primarily, that’s because while the last budget left only a very thin bit of headroom against Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules, this one was far more cautious, doubling that fiscal insurance policy to just over £21bn.

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Beth Rigby challenges Sir Keir Starmer over the budget

Yet that headroom is dependent on a couple of important factors. First, that the government will hold to its promises to keep spending growth constrained towards the end of the decade. Second, that it will be able to raise all the tax revenues it’s promising in that year.

That, in turn, gets to a deeper issue with the budget. Most of the tough stuff has been put off to the final year of the forecast – namely 2029.

That year, the government will face a squeeze at the very same moment that Britons are all asked to pay more in taxes.

And, critically, that’s the very year Labour is due to face a general election. Does it really plan to fight an election off the back of a contracting economy?

Consider, too, that for all the government’s promises to get living standards growing this parliament, they are currently only forecast to rise at the slowest rate since the 1950s – save for the pandemic and energy price shock period. The economic backdrop, in other words, is hardly rosy.

Still, for the time being, the chancellor has managed to put together a budget that has bolstered her position both in her party and in her job.

Markets remain relatively sanguine – much more so than after Rachel Reeves’s first budget last year – with bond yields lower today than before the event (albeit a little higher than yesterday).

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Main budget announcements at a glance
Reeves reveals £26bn of tax rises
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However, this was a complex budget. And, as with all bits of complex engineering, there remains a distinct possibility of large chunks of the budget failing to work.

But since so much of it isn’t due to kick in for a few years, it may take quite a while before we find out which bits work and which, if any, don’t.

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

A man has been arrested at an airport as part of the investigation into the terrorist attack at a Manchester synagogue.

The 31-year-old was detained at Manchester Airport on suspicion of the commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism after arriving on an inbound flight, police said.

It brings the total number of people arrested in connection with the incident at Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue to seven.

Jihad al Shamie launched the attack at the synagogue in Crumpsall on 2 October, driving his car at worshippers gathering on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, before attacking others with a knife and trying to storm inside.

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Manchester synagogue terrorist: what we know now

Armed police shot al Shamie after he ran towards officers “aggressively” while carrying a knife and what police feared was an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

Worshippers Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53, were killed, with Mr Daulby being described as a “quiet hero” who leapt from his seat to block the doors of the synagogue as it came under attack.

Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police
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Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police

He died from a single gunshot wound to the chest fired by an armed police officer, while father-of-three Mr Cravitz died from multiple knife wounds inflicted by al Shamie, an inquest at Manchester Coroner’s Court heard in October.

The inquests into the deaths of both men have been adjourned until February next year.

Three other men were treated in hospital for serious injuries. Two have since been released, police said on Thursday.

The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA
Image:
The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA

An inquest into the death of al Shamie, a Syrian-born UK citizen, heard he was identified by his fingerprints and evidence, including his car, phone and inquiries with his immediate family in the aftermath of the attack.

At the hearing in October, Judge Alexia Durran, the chief coroner of England and Wales, said her provisional findings were that al Shamie died of gunshot wounds.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct found no misconduct in the police response.

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Synagogue attacker died of gunshot wounds

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King visits synagogue

In a statement on Thursday, Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts, from Counter Terrorism Policing North West, said: “The loved ones of Mr Daulby and Mr Cravitz have been updated on this development, as have those who were seriously injured in the attack.

“Our investigation is continuing, and I would once again appeal for anyone with information that they think could assist our enquiries to please come forward.”

Police also said a 30-year-old man arrested on 9 October on suspicion of failing to disclose information contrary to S38B of the Terrorism Act 2000 remains on bail.

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