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The crimes of Lucy Letby are unprecedented in modern British history.

The mushrooming cloud of expert commentary and online conspiracy theories about her guilt is equally unusual.

The public inquiry into the circumstances surrounding Letby‘s crimes, which was set up by the government last year following her conviction, will begin hearings at Liverpool Town Hall on Tuesday.

But the inquiry will not address the question – a growing one in the minds of many – of Letby’s guilt.

The former neonatal nurse was sentenced to life imprisonment last year for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder six more at the Countess of Chester Hospital between the summers of 2015 and 2016.

At a recent retrial she was convicted of attempting to murder another baby.

It confirmed her as the most prolific child serial killer in modern British history.

The judge said she was guilty of a “cruel, calculated and cynical campaign of child murder involving the smallest and most vulnerable of children”.

She had, he said, “a deep malevolence bordering on sadism”.

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‘You will spend rest of your life in prison’

Letby’s attempts to appeal against her conviction have been rejected by judges. She has appointed a new legal team and plans to take her case to the Criminal Cases Review Commission.

Her new lawyer Mark McDonald posted last week: “The day after Lucy was convicted I raised concerns. I was attacked for speaking out, even reported to my professional body.

“There are many hurdles to overcome in coming years but one day justice will be done and those wrongly convicted will be freed.”

The development had added fuel to the campaign being waged by an unlikely alliance in support of Letby’s case.

Conviction ‘not safe’

In May, before Letby’s retrial began, a 13,000-word article in the New Yorker magazine raised questions about her initial conviction. It mobilised new recruits to the army of armchair Letby pundits.

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Many of those amateur detectives turned up at Manchester Crown Court this summer to sit in the public gallery and hear the case play out.

Perhaps more significantly, a number of expert commentators, doctors and statisticians, have raised their voices in protest, in particular over the way data was presented at the original trial.

Many of their concerns predate the Letby case and, while they accept they did not sit through all of the evidence in the 10 months of that trial, they do believe reasonable doubt exists.

Dr Jane Hutton is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick and an expert in the use of medical data in court.

Jane Hutton
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Jane Hutton

She was one of two dozen experts who wrote to the government asking that the Letby inquiry be delayed or broadened.

They believe a failure to look beyond Letby risks the inquiry missing other potential causes of death of vulnerable babies in hospital.

“I am of the opinion that the conviction is not safe because of the number of statistical problems I’ve seen and because other specialists from other areas have voiced similar concerns from the basis of their own professions,” she told Sky News.

“The concern is that by taking the conviction as safe and focusing only on Lucy Letby, the reasons for the increase in the number of deaths and collapses will not be fully explored and therefore there may be lessons that could be learned which will not be learned.”

What was the evidence against Lucy Letby at her trial?

‘Distressing’ and ‘offensive’

But this increasing drumbeat of support for Letby’s cause has been labelled “distressing” and “offensive” by those who represent the families of the babies Letby was convicted of attacking.

Tamlin Bolton, who represents six of the families affected, said: “I think the facts are very clear. She has been convicted of these crimes. She has exhausted the appeals process.

“Those that have been privy to the full remit of evidence, that includes the families, the jurors and the judges in the Court of Appeal, have all maintained her guilt.

“Anything outside of that, those that haven’t seen or read or heard the entirety of the evidence, it’s merely speculation.”

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From August 2023: How police caught Letby

She said a lot of families had been unaware of what was going on at the Countess of Chester Hospital at the time their babies died. She said they wanted transparency and accountability.

The inquiry chair, Lady Justice Thirlwall, has said her aim is to ensure vital lessons are learned and to make sure that no-one else suffers what the families have gone through.

In response to the calls to delay or alter the terms of the inquiry, a spokesperson said it would begin on schedule and “will follow the terms of reference set by the secretary of state”.

Will inquiry provide answers?

A government spokesperson said: “This was a horrendous case and there were clear failings across the NHS and with regulators.

“The Thirlwall Inquiry will review all aspects of the case and the terms of reference were agreed following wide-ranging engagement with its chair, the families affected and other stakeholders including NHS England.

“The inquiry will play an important role in identifying learnings following events at the Countess of Chester Hospital.”

Read more:
The prisoners who will never be released
Parents of Letby’s victims finally given voice

When Letby was found guilty initially, Dame Ruth May, chief nursing officer for England, said the crimes were “appalling” and a “terrible betrayal of the trust placed in her”.

“On behalf of all of us I would like to express our profound apologies to the families for all they have been through,” she added.

“The NHS is fully committed to doing everything we can to prevent anything like this ever happening again, and we welcome the independent inquiry announced by the Department of Health and Social Care to help ensure we learn every possible lesson from this awful case.”

To those who support Letby, the inquiry will be operating in a parallel universe, removed from the fundamental question of her guilt.

To the families of those babies, who live with the great pain of all, there has never been any suggestion of motive or any flicker of remorse. The inquiry might at least provide some answers.

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UK weather: Scottish hamlet reaches -18C in coldest January night in 15 years

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UK weather: Scottish hamlet reaches -18C in coldest January night in 15 years

Temperatures in a hamlet in northern Scotland fell to -18.7C (-1.66F) overnight – the UK’s coldest January night in 15 years, the Met Office has said.

Altnaharra, in the northern region of the Highlands, reached the lowest temperature while nearby Kinbrace reached -17.9C (-0.22F).

It is the coldest January overnight temperature since 2010, when temperatures dropped below -15C several times at locations across the UK, including -22.3C (-8.14F) on 8 January in Altnaharra.

Forecasters had previously said there was a very small probability it could reach -19C.

A Highland cow grazes in a snow-covered field near Shotts, North Lanarkshire. Temperatures will continue to fall over the coming days, with the mercury potentially reaching minus 20C in northern parts of the UK on Friday night. Weather warnings for ice are in place across the majority of Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as large parts of the east of England. Picture date: Friday January 10, 2025.
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A Highland cow grazing near Shotts, North Lanarkshire. Pic: PA

Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin said: “Friday night into Saturday morning may well be the nadir of this current cold spell.”

Temperatures for large parts of the UK are set to fall again as the cold weather continues.

St Andrew's church, Kiln Pit in Durham Pic: PA
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St Andrew’s church at Kiln Pit in Durham. Pic: PA

Met Office meteorologist Zoe Hutin said: “We’ve still got tonight to come, and tomorrow (Saturday) night could also be chilly as well.

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“Temperatures for tomorrow night, it will be mainly eastern parts that see temperatures dropping widely below freezing, so East Anglia, the northeast of England, northern and eastern Scotland as well.

“So another chilly night to come on Saturday, but then as we go into Sunday and into Monday, then we can start to expect temperatures to recover somewhat.

“I won’t rule out the risk of seeing something around or just below freezing again on Sunday night into Monday, but it won’t be quite so dramatic as the temperatures that we’re going to experience as we go overnight tonight.”

Ugo Sassi from Cambridge skates on a frozen flooded field in Upware, Cambridgeshire. The Cambridgeshire Fens were the birthplace of British speed skating and require four nights of frost, with a temperature of -4 or colder and little or no thawing during the days in between, to make ice strong enough to skate on. Temperatures will continue to fall over the coming days, with the mercury potentially reaching minus 20C in northern parts of the UK on Friday night. Weather warnings for ice are in pla
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Skating on a frozen flooded field in Upware, Cambridgeshire. Pic: PA

On Monday, temperatures are expected to be more in line with the seasonal norm, at about 7C to 8C.

A family walk across Hothfield Common in frosty conditions near Ashford in Kent.
Pic: PA
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A family walk across Hothfield Common in frosty conditions near Ashford in Kent. Pic: PA

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The freezing conditions have led to travel disruption, with Manchester Airport closing both its runways on Thursday morning because of “significant levels of snow”. They were later reopened.

Transport for Wales closed some railway lines because of damage to tracks.

Hundreds of schools in Scotland and about 90 in Wales were shut on Thursday.

Meanwhile, staff and customers at a pub thought to be Britain’s highest were finally able to leave on Thursday after being snowed in.

The Tan Hill Inn in Richmond, North Yorkshire, is 1,732 feet (528m) above sea level.

Six staff and 23 visitors were stuck, the pub said on Facebook.

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Government contract ends for controversial asylum barge Bibby Stockholm

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Government contract ends for controversial asylum barge Bibby Stockholm

The government contract for the controversial asylum barge in Dorset has ended.

The last asylum seekers are believed to have left Bibby Stockholm at the end of November after Labour said it would have cost more than £20m to run in 2025.

Its closure this month was expected, and on Friday the management firm and the Home Office confirmed to Sky News the contract had now expired.

It’s currently unclear when Bibby Stockholm will leave Portland and what it will be used for next.

The Conservative government started using the vessel in August 2023.

It said putting nearly 500 men on board while they waited for an asylum decision was cheaper than paying for hotel rooms.

However, it was controversial from the start and sparked legal challenges and protests.

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August: 2023: Barge reminds migrant of Islamic State

Days after the first group boarded there was an outbreak of Legionella bacteria in the water system and it had to be evacuated for two months.

In December 2023, an Albanian asylum seeker, Leonard Farruku, died on board.

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A Home Office spokesperson said the government was determined to reform the asylum system to make it operate “swiftly, firmly and fairly”.

“This includes our accommodation sites, as we continue to identify a range of options to reduce the use of hotels,” the new statement added.

“We are already closing some hotels and will continue to engage with local authorities and key stakeholders as part of this process.”

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How is your local NHS coping under winter pressures?

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How is your local NHS coping under winter pressures?

Pressure on hospitals is particularly high this winter, with more than a dozen declaring critical incidents in recent days.

Hospitals struggle every winter with additional pressures due to the impact of cold weather, but the early arrival of flu this season and high volume of cases meant Christmas and New Year’s weeks were even busier than usual.

There are currently at least 20 hospitals that have declared critical incidents in England, although this is a fast-moving picture, and some trusts will go into critical incident for as little as half an hour.

The latest NHS winter situation reports give a more detailed look at the level of pressure experienced by individual trusts, including those with the worst ambulance handover delays and highest levels of flu patients.

Ambulance handover delays

When a patient arrives at a hospital in an ambulance, clinical guidelines suggest that it should take no longer than 15 minutes to transfer them into emergency care.

It is now common for handovers to regularly exceed this timeframe, however, when emergency departments are overcrowded and lack the capacity to keep up with new patient arrivals.

This is risky for patients because it delays their assessment and treatment by clinicians, and also reduces the availability of ambulances to respond to new incidents.

The trust with the longest delays was University Hospitals Plymouth, with an average handover time of three hours and 33 minutes over the week – two hours and 40 minutes longer than the average for England. It also recorded the longest average handover times for a single day, at five hours and 14 minutes on New Year’s Day.

Use the table below to search for local ambulance handover times:

On 7 January, University Hospitals Plymouth declared a critical incident at Derriford Hospital due to “significant and rising demand for hospital care”, though this has since been stood down.

The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital Trust had an average ambulance handover time of three hours and 15 minutes, increasing by more than an hour from one hour and 51 minutes the week before.

In Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, 83% of handovers took more than 30 minutes, the highest share among areas dealing with more than five ambulance arrivals per day.

This area also recently declared and then stood down a critical incident.

In total across England, 43 trusts out of 127 had average handover times of more than an hour, while nine areas had average handover times of more than two hours.

Flu

This winter’s flu wave arrived earlier than usual and has hit health services hard.

Over New Year’s week, there were 5,407 flu patients in hospitals in England on average each day, more than three times higher than during the same week last year and increasing by 20% from the week before.

The worst impacted trusts were Northumbria Healthcare and University Hospitals Birmingham, with 15% and 13% of all available beds occupied by flu patients respectively in the latest week.

Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust had among the biggest increase in flu patients from the previous week, more than doubling from 18 to 42 patients per day on average.

Use the table below to search for local flu hospitalisations:

There are some indications that flu activity may have now peaked, with national flu surveillance showing a decrease in positive flu tests in the latest week, though activity remains at high levels.

Bed occupancy

Current NHS guidance is that a maximum of 92% of hospital beds should be occupied to reduce negative risks associated with overfilled beds.

These risks include the impact on patient flow resulting from it being more difficult to find beds for patients, and negative impacts on performance and waiting times, as well as being linked to increased infection rates.

In the week to 5 January, 92.8% of 102,546 open hospital beds were available each day on average, not far off the recommended level.

However, bed occupancy was very high in some trusts, with more than 95% of beds occupied in 43 trusts on average over the week.

The trust with the highest rate of bed occupancy was Wye Valley NHS Trust, with 99.9% of 332 beds occupied on average throughout the week.

There was only one day when beds weren’t fully occupied, on 3 January, when two beds of 322 were available.

Use the table below to search for local bed occupancy:

Kettering General Hospital NHS Trust recorded bed occupancy of 98.5% over the week. This trust declared a critical incident on 8 January.

Part of the problem for bed availability is prolonged hospital stays – also known as bed-blocking.

This is often linked to pressures in other parts of the health and social care system, for example when patients can’t be discharged to appropriate social care providers even though they are ready to leave hospital.

Just under half of beds occupied by patients in English hospitals last week were occupied by long-stay patients who had been there for seven or more days.

In seven trusts, at least three in five beds were occupied by long-stay patients, while in Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust the figure was more than four in five beds.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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