EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Clearly, growth percentages will need to trend downward as a new product category grows. It would be impossible for them not to.
To take an extreme example, it would be odd to say that sales are slumping in Norway, which just set a record at 94% EV market share in August with 10,480 units moved, because BEV sales only went up 5% compared to the previous August’s 9,974 units.
And yet, this mathematical necessity has been reported time and time again in media, and by anti-EV political forces, as if EV sales are down, despite that they continue to rise.
The actual short-term status of EV sales – they’re still up
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Brands saw big increases in EV sales in Q1, except Tesla, VW (prior to refresh of its one US EV model), and GM (after retiring its most-popular model). Source: Bloomberg
Finally, some have suggested that this is a natural part of any technology adoption curve, as a technology transitions from being used by “early adopters” to “early majority.” Most consider the “chasm” between these groups to be somewhere around the 10-20% adoption range.
In terms of hybrid sales, much has been made of customers “shifting from EVs to hybrids,” which is also not the case. Conventional gas-hybrid sales are indeed up (as opposed to plug-in hybrids, which continue to lag behind gas-hybrids/BEVs, though have shown some growth lately), and gas-hybrids are up more than EV sales, after EV sales having had higher growth rates for many years than gas-hybrids have.
But gas-hybrid sales have not come at the cost of EV sales, but at the cost of gas-only car sales. Because EV sales are still up.
In covering these trends, some journalists have at least used the correct phrasing “slower growth,” showing that EV sales are still growing, but at a lower percentage change than previously seen.
But many, or perhaps even most, have taken the lazy – and incorrect – route of using descriptors that make it seem like sales have gone down, despite that they continue to go up.
This often takes the form of words like “cool” “fall” “slow” and “slump.” But none of these are accurate descriptors of still-rising sales.
All of these words would be best applied to a number that is decreasing, not to a number that is rising.
If an object is thrown up in the air, it would not be described as “falling” until after it reaches the peak of its travel, despite that it is continually showing downward acceleration of 9.81m/s2 from the moment it is released.
If today is hotter than yesterday, temperatures are not “cooling” even if the degree of temperature rise was lower than it was on the previous day (80º -> 85º -> 88º does not show a “cooling” trend).
If a car goes 0-30 in 2 seconds, and 30-60 in 3 seconds, that car is not “slowing” from 30-60. It is still accelerating.
If a graph shows a rising curve, that curve is not “slumping” before it reaches its peak. A “slump” would be better applied to a trough or nadir in the graph, not the zenith of it and certainly not anywhere in the runup to the zenith.
Indeed, the only way to make an argument that EV sales are “slowing” is to rely on the second derivative of sales numbers. Having to do integral calculus in order to suggest that sales are down, when sales are actually up, smacks of a certain level of desperation by a losing industry.
Gas car sales are actually going down
Because that’s just the thing: the number of gas-only vehicles being sold worldwide is a number that actually is falling. That number continues to go down year over year.
Sales of new gas-powered cars are down by about a quarter from their peak in 2017, and show no signs of recovering. It is exceedingly likely that 2017 will be the high-water mark of gas-powered cars ever sold on this planet.
And yet, somehow, virtually every headline you read is about the “EV sales slump,” rather than the “gas-car sales slump.” The latter is real, the former is incorrect.
These numbers are easily verifiable in moments. No matter what region of the world you’re in, EV sales are up in the first half of this year, and gas car sales are down. This has been true for most recent quarters when taking into account year-over-year numbers (the traditional way to measure car sales, since car sales are seasonal), and it’s true for the first half of this year so far – when the majority of these false headlines have been written.
Why does it matter? These lies influence policy – and cause more pollution
All of this matters because the constant incorrect reporting is causing changes in plans for both automakers and governments who are pulling back on EV plans, which dooms humanity to worse health and climate outcomes.
Early on as this pattern of lies started to show itself in the media, David Reichmuth of the Union of Concerned Scientists suggested that one motivation behind the false headlines could be to influence regulations. The idea goes that, by pretending EV sales were “cooling,” despite that they were not, automakers could convince governments to pull back on their future commitments, thus allowing automakers to continue business as usual instead of having to put in effort to make actually good cars that don’t poison everything around them.
But those regulations already passed and timelines were loosened after automaker whining, so congratulations, you got what you wanted, you get to poison people a bit more for a few more years, and you can all stop lying now.
And yet, the headlines have continued, and so many outlets continue to push the same false narrative that they have for around a year now claiming that EV sales are down. But it wasn’t true then, and it isn’t true now.
All this said – yes, higher EV sales growth rates would be preferable to the current status quo and are needed to meet climate targets. Or rather, a faster decline in gas car sales is what’s truly needed – and would be beneficial to all living beings on this planet.
The environment cannot wait, and humans can’t spend the next 10-20 years breathing down the poison coming out of the tailpipe of each gas-powered vehicle sold today. This needs to end and it needs to end now. The faster we act, the easier it will be for the world to reach carbon reductions that are objectively necessary to achieve.
So stop lying about EV sales trends
But overall, the point of this article is that media headlines suggesting some slowdown in EV sales are simply incorrect. And it’s hard to imagine that these headlines, which have gone on for around a year now, are not intentional at this point.
Each journalist who has spent the last year perpetuating the myth of an EV sales slowdown could have read any one of our articles, or googled a single number showing year-over-year EV sales in any region or for most countries and most brands, and found that they are still going up. The information is out there and easy to find.
And if misinformation is done knowingly and intentionally despite ready access to truth, which is your job as a journalist to seek and find, it’s a lie. So stop lying.
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Lectric Ebikes appears to be preparing for a major new product launch, teasing what looks like the next evolution of its wildly popular folding fat tire electric bike. Based on the clues, it looks like a new Lectric XP 4 could be inbound.
In a social media post released over the weekend, the company shared a minimalist graphic reading “XP4” along with the message “Tune in 5.6.2025 9:30AM PT.” That date – this Tuesday – suggests we’re just hours away from the big reveal of the Lectric XP 4.
If true, this would mark the next generation of the most successful electric bike in the U.S. market. The current model, the Lectric XP 3.0, has become an icon of accessible, budget-friendly electric mobility. Starting at just $999, the XP 3.0 offers a foldable frame, fat tires, a 500W motor, a rear rack, lights, and hydraulic brakes – all packed into a highly shippable design that arrives fully assembled. It’s the kind of package that has helped Lectric claim the title of best-selling e-bike brand in the U.S. for several years in a row.
With the XP 3.0 still going strong, the teaser raises plenty of questions. Will the XP 4.0 be a modest update or a major leap forward? Could we see new features like torque-sensing pedal assist, a location tracking option, or upgraded performance? Or is Lectric preparing a more comfort-oriented variant, maybe even with upgraded suspension or even more accessories included standard?
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The teaser image, which features stylized stripes in grey, blue, and black, may hold some clues. One theory is that the colors represent new trim options or component upgrades. Another possibility is that Lectric is preparing multiple variants of the XP 4.0 – perhaps targeting commuters, adventurers, and off-road riders with purpose-built versions. We took the liberty of a bit of rampant speculation late last year, so perhaps that’s now worth a revisit.
At the same time though, Lectric’s penchant for launching new models at unbelievably affordable prices has never run up against such strong pricing headwinds as those posed by uncertainty in the current US-global trade war fueled by rapidly changing tariffs for imported goods.
Previous versions of the Lectric XP e-bike line have seen sky-high sales
Whatever the case, Lectric’s knack for surprising the industry with high-value, customer-focused e-bikes means expectations will be high. The brand has built a loyal following by delivering reliable performance at a price point that few can match, and any major update to the XP lineup is likely to ripple across the market.
As a young and energetic e-bike company, Lectric is also known for throwing impressive parties around the launch of new models. It looks like I may need to hop on a red-eye to Phoenix so I can see for myself – and so I can bring you all along, of course.
Be sure to tune in Tuesday at 9:30AM PT to see what Lectric has in store – and you can bet we’ll have all the details and first impressions as soon as they drop.
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Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.
U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.
The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.
The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.
Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.
Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.
“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.
Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.
Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.
In a bid to keep up with the rapid growth of EVs, Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT is currently seeking public feedback on a plan called “Chicago Moves Electric Framework.” The city’s first such plan, it outlines initiatives that include a curbside charging pilot through the city’s utility, ComEd, and expanded charging access in key areas throughout the city.
Unlike other such plans, however, the new plan aims to focus on bringing electric vehicle charging to EIEC and low income communities, too.
“Through this framework, we are setting clear goals and identifying solutions that reflect the voices of our residents, communities, and regional partners,” said CDOT Commissioner Tom Carney. “By prioritizing equity and public input, we’re creating a roadmap for electric transportation that serves every neighborhood and helps drive down emissions across Chicago.”
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Neighborhoods on the south and west sides of Chicago experience a disproportionate amount of air pollution and diesel emissions, largely due to vehicle emissions according to CDOT. Despite that, most of Chicago’s public charging stations are clustered in higher-income areas while just 7.8% are in environmental justice neighborhoods that face higher environmental burdens.
“Too often, communities facing the greatest economic and transportation barriers also experience the most air pollution,” explains Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. “By prioritizing investments in historically underserved areas and making clean transportation options more affordable and accessible, we can improve both mobility and public health.”
The Framework identifies other near-term policy objectives, as well – such as streamlining the EV charger installation process for businesses and residents and implementing “Low-Emission Zones” in areas disproportionately impacted by air pollution by limiting, or even restricting, access to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles during peak hours.
The Chicago Moves Electric Framework includes the installation of Level 2 and DC fast charging stations in public locations such as libraries and Chicago’s Midway Airport, “supporting not only personal EVs but also electric taxis, ride-hail and commercial fleets.”
Chicago has a goal of installing 2,500 public passenger EV charging stations and electrifying the city’s entire municipal vehicle fleet by 2035.
Electrek’s Take
ComEd press conference at Chicago Drives Electric, 2024; by the author.