An oil pump jack is shown in a field on June 27, 2024 in Stanton, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
SINGAPORE — Global markets are severely overplaying an oil supply glut, said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at private equity giant Carlyle.
Concerns about a supply glut in the markets are “completely overplayed,” Currie said at the annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, attributing it to excessive pessimism about Chinese demand amid flat U.S. crude oil production.
The key issue there is, the market is dramatically overestimating that flood.
Jeff Currie
chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle
“[China’s] weaknesses in demand are being deeply exaggerated by base effects and by destocking,” he said at APPEC. China’s crude oil imports in 2023 had notched a record high.
“There’s the transition component, which is moving trucks into LNG, and then there’s the economic weakness. So you’re down 500,000 barrels per day,” he said, adding that the worst of that transition is likely over.
China’s oil demand has been declining on the back of a slump in industrial inputs, according the International Energy Agency. Preliminary data from the agency is also pointing to an extended weakness in July, as China’s imports of crude oil dropped to their lowest level since 2022 during strict lockdowns in the country. China’s August crude oil imports fell 7%.
On the supply side, black oil production in the U.S., one of the world’s top crude oil producers, has been “flat” this year, Currie said. Black oils include crude oil, fuel oil, furnace oil, asphalt and tar. White oils include gasoline and kerosene.
“The U.S. is producing a record amount of natural gas liquids. Liquids are not oil … When you look at oil, U.S. production is flat this year,” said Currie.
“The key issue there is, the market is dramatically overestimating that flood [in oil supply], and it’s reflected in record short positions … and I’ve never seen anything like that,” he added.
In June, Carlyle said it would acquire a portfolio of gas-weighted assets with initial production estimated at 47,000 barrels of oil per day. The company struck a $945 million deal with Energean to acquire the latter’s assets in Egypt, Italy and Croatia, Reuters reported.
Supply outstrips demand
Other industry watchers disagree with Currie’s assessment on the issue of oversupply in the crude market.
“We probably are producing much more oil [on] the critical products than we are consuming, and that balance is seen to worsen for the next year,” said Torbjörn Törnqvist, CEO of commodities trading firm Gunvor.
Compounding oversupply concerns, oil group OPEC+ is expected to increase production in 2025 in a move that would mark its first increase in three years, said Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets, energy, and mobility at S&P Global.
Last week, members of the alliance postponed plans to hike production by a scheduled 180,000 barrels per day in October by two months. The move was supposed to be part of a program to return a broader 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over the following months.
Even if OPEC+ does not hike production, the world is still staring at over 5 million drills of unused oil today, Burkhard said.
“Which means there’s going to be more unused capacity sitting there on the sidelines, and that is going to exert a downward pressure on prices,” he said.
Lectric Ebikes appears to be preparing for a major new product launch, teasing what looks like the next evolution of its wildly popular folding fat tire electric bike. Based on the clues, it looks like a new Lectric XP 4 could be inbound.
In a social media post released over the weekend, the company shared a minimalist graphic reading “XP4” along with the message “Tune in 5.6.2025 9:30AM PT.” That date – this Tuesday – suggests we’re just hours away from the big reveal of the Lectric XP 4.
If true, this would mark the next generation of the most successful electric bike in the U.S. market. The current model, the Lectric XP 3.0, has become an icon of accessible, budget-friendly electric mobility. Starting at just $999, the XP 3.0 offers a foldable frame, fat tires, a 500W motor, a rear rack, lights, and hydraulic brakes – all packed into a highly shippable design that arrives fully assembled. It’s the kind of package that has helped Lectric claim the title of best-selling e-bike brand in the U.S. for several years in a row.
With the XP 3.0 still going strong, the teaser raises plenty of questions. Will the XP 4.0 be a modest update or a major leap forward? Could we see new features like torque-sensing pedal assist, a location tracking option, or upgraded performance? Or is Lectric preparing a more comfort-oriented variant, maybe even with upgraded suspension or even more accessories included standard?
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The teaser image, which features stylized stripes in grey, blue, and black, may hold some clues. One theory is that the colors represent new trim options or component upgrades. Another possibility is that Lectric is preparing multiple variants of the XP 4.0 – perhaps targeting commuters, adventurers, and off-road riders with purpose-built versions. We took the liberty of a bit of rampant speculation late last year, so perhaps that’s now worth a revisit.
At the same time though, Lectric’s penchant for launching new models at unbelievably affordable prices has never run up against such strong pricing headwinds as those posed by uncertainty in the current US-global trade war fueled by rapidly changing tariffs for imported goods.
Previous versions of the Lectric XP e-bike line have seen sky-high sales
Whatever the case, Lectric’s knack for surprising the industry with high-value, customer-focused e-bikes means expectations will be high. The brand has built a loyal following by delivering reliable performance at a price point that few can match, and any major update to the XP lineup is likely to ripple across the market.
As a young and energetic e-bike company, Lectric is also known for throwing impressive parties around the launch of new models. It looks like I may need to hop on a red-eye to Phoenix so I can see for myself – and so I can bring you all along, of course.
Be sure to tune in Tuesday at 9:30AM PT to see what Lectric has in store – and you can bet we’ll have all the details and first impressions as soon as they drop.
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Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.
U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.
The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.
The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.
Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.
Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.
“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.
Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.
Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.
In a bid to keep up with the rapid growth of EVs, Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT is currently seeking public feedback on a plan called “Chicago Moves Electric Framework.” The city’s first such plan, it outlines initiatives that include a curbside charging pilot through the city’s utility, ComEd, and expanded charging access in key areas throughout the city.
Unlike other such plans, however, the new plan aims to focus on bringing electric vehicle charging to EIEC and low income communities, too.
“Through this framework, we are setting clear goals and identifying solutions that reflect the voices of our residents, communities, and regional partners,” said CDOT Commissioner Tom Carney. “By prioritizing equity and public input, we’re creating a roadmap for electric transportation that serves every neighborhood and helps drive down emissions across Chicago.”
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Neighborhoods on the south and west sides of Chicago experience a disproportionate amount of air pollution and diesel emissions, largely due to vehicle emissions according to CDOT. Despite that, most of Chicago’s public charging stations are clustered in higher-income areas while just 7.8% are in environmental justice neighborhoods that face higher environmental burdens.
“Too often, communities facing the greatest economic and transportation barriers also experience the most air pollution,” explains Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. “By prioritizing investments in historically underserved areas and making clean transportation options more affordable and accessible, we can improve both mobility and public health.”
The Framework identifies other near-term policy objectives, as well – such as streamlining the EV charger installation process for businesses and residents and implementing “Low-Emission Zones” in areas disproportionately impacted by air pollution by limiting, or even restricting, access to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles during peak hours.
The Chicago Moves Electric Framework includes the installation of Level 2 and DC fast charging stations in public locations such as libraries and Chicago’s Midway Airport, “supporting not only personal EVs but also electric taxis, ride-hail and commercial fleets.”
Chicago has a goal of installing 2,500 public passenger EV charging stations and electrifying the city’s entire municipal vehicle fleet by 2035.
Electrek’s Take
ComEd press conference at Chicago Drives Electric, 2024; by the author.