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Mothers carrying their children smile, give me a thumbs up, and then point to a riverbank fifty metres or so away.

We’re on a walkway bridge between the Mexican city of Matamoros and Brownsville in Texas. The riverbank is of course the United States – so close you feel you can almost touch it.

For these families wide-eyed with excitement, this is the moment they’ve dreamt of. Many have endured months, even years, on the road.

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A GROUP OF MIGRANTS ARE LED FROM MEXICO TO THE US 2

Sometimes travelling thousands of miles through hostile countries, outwitting cartel gangs, and managing dizzyingly contradictory bureaucracy, all to get to this point: an asylum interview with United States border officials, and almost certain entry.

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On its face, this all sounds like a system working in perfect harmony with the needy being helped by a welcoming country.

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But in reality, migration is a hotly disputed issue that is likely to dominate the Trump-Harris debate, and the run up to the presidential election itself.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

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The group I am with on the bridge is mostly from Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Venezuela.

They’re claiming asylum, and with their paperwork and appointment email in hand, they approach the border with some trepidation but mostly with excitement and joy.

Many have waited months for their appointment to come through after applying for asylum on the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) app.

This group of a few hundred people on the bridge are now just a few steps from America.

A MIGRANT CHILD SLEEPS ON HER MOTHERS LAP WHILE WAITING TO CROSS FOR CBP APPOINTMENT

As they shuffle forward, CBP guards check their papers, make sure there are no errors, and wave them through to the other side for their case interviews.

These families, these children, are about to start a new life.

Along the border here in Matamoros, there’s little sign of Donald Trump’s border wall, but he’d doubtless approve of the razor wire fortifications on the American side of the Rio Grande.

Experts here say there’s no doubt who those seeking asylum are backing in this election and this debate – and that’s Kamala Harris, who is seen to have a far less hostile approach to immigration.

“I think the best would be a flexible US immigration policy again, like President Biden’s when he began his administration,” Oscar Misael Hernandez-Hernandez said as we chatted alongside the dozens of cars and trucks crossing the border.

OSCAR MISAEL HERNANDEZ HERNANDEZ
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Professor Oscar Misael Hernandez-Hernandez

A professor of social anthropology at the El Colegio de la Frontera Norte research centre and an expert on Mexico-US border issues, he added: “Biden broke with ultra-conservative vision and immigration policy.

“So, I think if Harris implements a migration policy like this if she wins the presidency of the United States, it would be not only quite good for migrants in terms of human rights, but also quite good for international diplomacy, because the relations of the United States, at least with President Trump, if he wins, would be quite disastrous as they were in the past.”

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A GROUP OF MIGRANTS IS LED FROM MEXICO TO THE US
A MIGRANT WAITS FOR HER TURN TO BE CHECKED AT THE US BORDER WITH MEXICO

In shelters and hostels across Mexico, many other migrant families simply have to wait for their border appointments.

It’s like a lottery, and it can take a long time for their number to come up.

Few leave the shelter; they would be easy prey for cartel gangs who would kidnap and hold them for ransom.

Marlen Cabrera, 39, from Honduras, and her family are waiting it out along with 200 others at the Casa del Migrante San Francisco de Asis shelter.

MARLEN CABRERA AND FAMILY
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Marlen Cabrera says making it the US is the only option she and her family have

Any tightening of the immigration rules – as threatened by Donald Trump – would be a disaster for her.

I asked her what she would do if the laws changed with a Trump victory. She says she doesn’t like to think about what-ifs.

“I’ve been here so long, and not being able to get in would be hard because it’s the only option I have,” she said.

“I have to get in. It would be really terrible if we couldn’t. And I don’t just speak for myself, I speak for everyone here.”

Jose Valdivia, the Nicaraguan manager of the shelter is even clearer.

“Everybody, since the last election, we all wanted the Democrats to win, right? Because the Democrats look out for the little guy,” he told me.

“That’s what everybody here as a migrant wants, we want the Democrats to win. No one wants Trump.”

CBP OFFICER CHECKS MIGRANT PAPERWORK AT BORDER 3
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A US border agent checks migrant paperwork

Day in, day out, in any weather, the migrants line up for their appointment here at the border in Matamoros.

Along the almost 2,000-mile-long border separating Mexico and the United States, thousands of applicants are screened every day and allowed to enter America legally to start new lives in their new home country.

But these migrants are at the centre of one of the most divisive issues in America right now.

Since the summer, border restrictions introduced by the Biden administration, combined with assistance from Mexican authorities who hamper the movement of migrants to the border, has brought about a large reduction in the number of people illegally entering America.

Despite this, President Biden is widely considered to have failed on immigration, and while Kamala Harris’s team have been working hard to cast her as a sort of new candidate and a breath of fresh air, she is – whether they like it or not – part of this administration and is tainted by its perceived failures.

The latest polls suggest Donald Trump scores well on the immigration issue, and his team have been releasing pointed “attack ads” on Kamala Harris and her team on this subject. They in turn have released adverts attacking Trump.

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You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

In the debate itself, Trump is widely expected to try to nail Harris on immigration, and she will have to find a way to counter that.

Undoubtedly, she will point out that Trump’s supporters kiboshed a cross-party action plan for migration, but she is still tainted for certain.

While this will all play out in the political rough and tumble of the electoral process, it is important not to forget that thousands upon thousands of people will be affected by America’s future stance on immigration.

And for some asylum seekers, it is quite literally a matter of life and death.

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Trump exempts Hungary from US sanctions on Russian energy after meeting Orban

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Trump exempts Hungary from US sanctions on Russian energy after meeting Orban

Hungary has been given a one-year exemption from US sanctions on using Russian energy, a White House official has said, after its Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Donald Trump in the White House.

Mr Orban succeeded in convincing the US president to allow Hungary to continue importing Russian oil and gas without being subject to the sanctions Mr Trump‘s administration had placed on Russian fossil fuels.

Hungary has been under heavy pressure from the European Union to end its reliance on Russian energy.

The EU has mostly heavily cut or ceased its imports of Russian oil and gas.

On 22 October, Mr Trump imposed sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, in a major policy shift described by Vladimir Putin as an “unfriendly act”.

Mr Trump has also been pushing Europe to stop using Russian energy.

Ukraine war latest: Trump gives Hungary energy sanctions relief

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Will US sanctions on Russian oil hurt the Kremlin?

Mr Orban, the country’s nationalist leader and a long-time ally of Mr Trump, has described access to Russian energy as a “vital” issue for his landlocked country.

He said he planned to discuss with Mr Trump the “consequences for the Hungarian people” if the sanctions came into effect.

Speaking at a news conference after his talks with Mr Trump, Mr Orban said Hungary had “been granted a complete exemption from sanctions” affecting Russian gas delivered to Hungary from the TurkStream pipeline and oil from the Druzhba pipeline.

“We asked the president to lift the sanctions,” Mr Orban said. “We agreed and the president decided, and he said that the sanctions will not be applied to these two pipelines.”

Mr Trump appeared to be sympathetic to Mr Orban’s pleas.

“We’re looking at it, because it’s very different for him to get the oil and gas from other areas,” he said.

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Why did Trump sanction Russian oil?

“As you know, they don’t have … the advantage of having sea. It’s a great country, it’s a big country, but they don’t have sea. They don’t have the ports.”

He added: “But many European countries are buying oil and gas from Russia, and they have been for years. And I said, ‘What’s that all about?'”

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Putin: US sanctions are an ‘unfriendly act’

Orban says ‘miracle can happen’ in Ukraine war

Mr Trump and Mr Orban also discussed the war in Ukraine, with the US president saying: “The basic dispute is they just don’t want to stop yet. And I think they will.”

The president asked Mr Orban if he thought Ukraine could win the war, with the prime minister saying a “miracle can happen”.

Hungary reliant on Russian gas and oil

As part of the discussions, Hungary agreed to buy US liquefied natural gas (LNG), the US state department said, noting contracts were expected to be worth around $600m (£455m).

The two nations also agreed to work together on nuclear energy, including small modular reactors.

Mr Orban also said Hungary will also purchase nuclear fuel from the US-based Westinghouse Electric Company to power its Paks nuclear plant, which has until now relied on Russian-supplied nuclear fuel.

International Monetary Fund figures show Hungary relied on Russia for 74% of its gas and 86% of its oil last year. It warned an EU-wide cutoff of Russian natural gas could result in output losses in Hungary exceeding 4% of its GDP.

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon, he may have one for real.

The president promised his America would “drill, baby drill” to new levels of prosperity by making the most of its reserves of oil and gas.

Mr Trump has now axed hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon power and clean energy research and given them instead to fossil fuel investments.

Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters
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Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters

There’s no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America.

Nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt.

When we visited, the massive 200m-wide turbines were going round – a temporary injunction has allowed construction to continue – but they’re not yet connected to the grid.

As long as Mr Trump is in power, it’s not certain they’ll ever be.

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The future of other major wind and solar developments is also in doubt, as is more than $100bn (£75bn) in clean energy investment.

There’s less doubt about the fossil fuel business however. The industry is getting what it asked for after backing Mr Trump’s re-election.

US energy secretary Chris Wright and many key White House staff and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.

Analysis for Sky News, by Global Witness, reveals that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, US oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average of the world’s next largest producers.

An increase that really took off during Mr Trump’s first presidency.

The analysis of company data goes on to reveal how US oil and gas production is now forecast to continue growing – by 2035 to double that of its next closest rival, Russia.

“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate breakdown, the US has doubled down on fossil fuels, ramping up production,” said Patrick Galey, of Global Witness.

A fact that would probably be music to the president’s ears and to many conservative Americans who voted for him.

US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia's by 2035
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US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia’s by 2035

Mr Trump’s “energy emergency” was perhaps a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals.

The only problem is, apart from accelerating global warming, his energy plan is on course to make America worse off.

‘US energy demand to grow 25%’

For the first time in years, US electricity demand has been going up. It is driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centres – further encouraged by Mr Trump’s aim for American supremacy in AI.

Demand is rising and renewable energy is the quickest, cheapest way to meet it.

Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters

President Trump has championed supremacy in AI – backing investments in and clearing red tape for massive energy-hungry data centres.

After declining, then remaining stable for years, US energy demand is now forecast to grow 25% by 2030, according to analysis by ICF International.

But where will all the electricity come from?

We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of- the-art gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia.

Demand for new turbines has never been greater, according to Bill Newsom, the US CEO. Wait times for new turbines is now double what it was just two years ago.

Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia
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Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia

And while America will need gas to meet rising demand – it’s twice as clean as coal and provides “baseload” power that renewable energy grids can’t yet match – it can’t be built fast enough.

American businesses, including AI, will likely suffer because they can’t get the power they need.

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US consumers – who Mr Trump promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.

And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.

The speed of transition being called for to meet the 1.5C Paris target was always going to be very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out.

But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr Trump risks making Americans – and the climate – worse off.

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One year on from Donald Trump’s election win, an untold story has emerged

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One year on from Donald Trump's election win, an untold story has emerged

It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.

There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.

The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?

On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.

I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.

“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”

The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.

“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.

“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”

There was little question here that people are happy.

Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
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Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy

“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.

“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.

“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.

“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.

Andrea says she's happy with how the economy is faring
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Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring

A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.

He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.

But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.

“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”

That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.

That’s the untold story of the past year.

A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.

Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.

At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.

The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.

David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
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David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks

The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.

“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.

“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”

Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.

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Steelton in Pennsylvania
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Steelton in Pennsylvania

Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.

Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.

Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.

“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.

Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
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Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser

“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.

I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.

“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”

Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.

Sandra says it's getting harder to make ends meet
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Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet

“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”

Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.

A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.

“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.

Geraldine's welfare has been affected by the shutdown
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Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown

Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.

SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.

I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.

A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.

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