Mothers carrying their children smile, give me a thumbs up, and then point to a riverbank 50 metres or so away.
We’re on a walkway bridge between the Mexican city of Matamoros and Brownsville in Texas. The riverbank is of course the United States – so close you feel you can almost touch it.
For these families wide-eyed with excitement, this is the moment they’ve dreamt of. Many have endured months, even years, on the road.
Sometimes travelling thousands of miles through hostile countries, outwitting cartel gangs, and managing dizzyingly contradictory bureaucracy, all to get to this point: an asylum interview with United States border officials, and almost certain entry.
On its face, this all sounds like a system working in perfect harmony with the needy being helped by a welcoming country.
But in reality, migration is a hotly disputed issue that is likely to dominate the Trump-Harris debate, and the run-up to the presidential election itself.
You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile
The group I am with on the bridge is mostly from Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Venezuela.
They’re claiming asylum, and with their paperwork and appointment email in hand, they approach the border with some trepidation but mostly with excitement and joy.
Many have waited months for their appointment to come through after applying for asylum on the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) app.
This group of a few hundred people on the bridge are now just a few steps from America.
As they shuffle forward, CBP guards check their papers, make sure there are no errors, and wave them through to the other side for their case interviews.
These families, these children, are about to start a new life.
Along the border here in Matamoros, there’s little sign of Donald Trump’s border wall, but he’d doubtless approve of the razor wire fortifications on the American side of the Rio Grande.
Experts here say there’s no doubt who those seeking asylum are backing in this election and this debate – and that’s Kamala Harris, who is seen to have a far less hostile approach to immigration.
“I think the best would be a flexible US immigration policy again, like President Biden’s when he began his administration,” Oscar Misael Hernandez-Hernandez said as we chatted alongside the dozens of cars and trucks crossing the border.
Image: Professor Oscar Misael Hernandez-Hernandez
A professor of social anthropology at the El Colegio de la Frontera Norte research centre and an expert on Mexico-US border issues, he added: “Biden broke with ultra-conservative vision and immigration policy.
“So, I think if Harris implements a migration policy like this if she wins the presidency of the United States, it would be not only quite good for migrants in terms of human rights, but also quite good for international diplomacy, because the relations of the United States, at least with President Trump, if he wins, would be quite disastrous as they were in the past.”
In shelters and hostels across Mexico, many other migrant families simply have to wait for their border appointments.
It’s like a lottery, and it can take a long time for their number to come up.
Few leave the shelter; they would be easy prey for cartel gangs who would kidnap and hold them for ransom.
Marlen Cabrera, 39, from Honduras, and her family are waiting it out along with 200 others at the Casa del Migrante San Francisco de Asis shelter.
Image: Marlen Cabrera says making it the US is the only option she and her family have
Any tightening of the immigration rules – as threatened by Donald Trump – would be a disaster for her.
I asked her what she would do if the laws changed with a Trump victory. She says she doesn’t like to think about what-ifs.
“I’ve been here so long, and not being able to get in would be hard because it’s the only option I have,” she said.
“I have to get in. It would be really terrible if we couldn’t. And I don’t just speak for myself, I speak for everyone here.”
Jose Valdivia, the Nicaraguan manager of the shelter, is even clearer.
“Everybody, since the last election, we all wanted the Democrats to win, right? Because the Democrats look out for the little guy,” he told me.
“That’s what everybody here as a migrant wants, we want the Democrats to win. No one wants Trump.”
Image: A US border agent checks migrant paperwork
Day in, day out, in any weather, the migrants line up for their appointment here at the border in Matamoros.
Along the almost 2,000-mile-long border separating Mexico and the United States, thousands of applicants are screened every day and allowed to enter America legally to start new lives in their new home country.
But these migrants are at the centre of one of the most divisive issues in America right now.
Since the summer, border restrictions introduced by the Biden administration, combined with assistance from Mexican authorities who hamper the movement of migrants to the border, has brought about a large reduction in the number of people illegally entering America.
Despite this, President Biden is widely considered to have failed on immigration, and while Kamala Harris’s team have been working hard to cast her as a sort of new candidate and a breath of fresh air, she is – whether they like it or not – part of this administration and is tainted by its perceived failures.
The latest polls suggest Donald Trump scores well on the immigration issue, and his team have been releasing pointed “attack ads” on Kamala Harris and her team on this subject. They in turn have released adverts attacking Trump.
In the debate itself, Trump is widely expected to try to nail Harris on immigration, and she will have to find a way to counter that.
Undoubtedly, she will point out that Trump’s supporters kiboshed a cross-party action plan for migration, but she is still tainted for certain.
While this will all play out in the political rough and tumble of the electoral process, it is important not to forget that thousands upon thousands of people will be affected by America’s future stance on immigration.
And for some asylum seekers, it is quite literally a matter of life and death.
Donald Trump has paused his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on most of America’s trading partners for 90 days – while increasing those on China to 125%.
However, the S&P 500 stock index jumped 9.5% and global markets bounced back following Mr Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the increased tariffs on nearly all trading partners would now be paused.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said the “90-day pause” was for the “more than 75 countries” who had not retaliated against his tariffs “in any way”.
He added that during this period they would still have to pay a “substantially lowered” 10% tariff, which is “effective immediately”.
It is lower than the 20% tariff that Mr Trump had set for goods from the European Union, 24% on imports from Japan and 25% on products from South Korea.
The UK was already going to face a blanket 10% tariff under the new system.
Mr Trump said the increased 125% tariff on imported goods from China was “effective immediately”.
He added: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realise that the days of ripping off the USA, and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
What’s in Trump’s tariff pause?
Here’s what Donald Trump’s tariff pause entails:
‘Reciprocal’ tariffs on hold
• Higher tariffs that took effect today on 57 trading partners will be paused for 90 days
• These include the EU, Japan and South Korea, all of which will face a baseline 10% duty instead
• Countries that already had a 10% levy imposed since last week – such as the UK – aren’t affected by the pause
China tariffs increased
• Trump imposed a higher 125% tariff on China
• That’s in addition to levies he imposed during his first term
• China had hit the US with 84% tariff earlier today, following tit-for-tat escalations
No change for Canada or Mexico
• Canadian and Mexican goods will remain subject to 25% fentanyl-related tariffs if they don’t comply with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement’s rules of origin
• Compliant goods are exempt
Car and metal tariffs remain
• Trump’s pause doesn’t apply to the 25% tariffs he levied on steel and aluminium in March and on cars (autos) on 3 April
• This 25% tariff on car parts does not come into effect until 3 May
Sectors at risk
• Copper, lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals are expected to be subject to separate tariffs, in the same way autos are
Hours after Mr Trump announced the pause on tariffs for most countries, a White House official clarified that this did not apply to the 25% duties imposed on some US imports from Mexico and Canada.
The tariffs were first announced in February and Mexico and Canada were not included in the “Liberation Day” announcements.
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It meant tariffs of 84% would be enforced on US goods – up from the 34% China had previously planned.
Image: Mr Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
China ‘want to make a deal’
Asked why he posted “BE COOL” on Truth Social hours before announcing his tariff pause, Mr Trump told reporters at the White House: “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.”
“They were getting yippy, you know, were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,” he added.
Mr Trump continued: “China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how to go about it.
“[They’re] quite the proud people, and President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well, and they don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out.
“They’re in the process of figuring out, but they want to make a deal.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the walk back was part of a grand negotiating strategy by Mr Trump.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” she said, adding that the news media “clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also insisted Mr Trump had strengthened his hand through his tariffs.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” he said.
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Mr Bessent said Mr Trump decided to raise tariffs on China because Beijing hadn’t reached out to the US and instead increased its own levies on US goods.
Downing Street said that the UK will “coolly and calmly” continue its negotiations with the US.
A Number 10 spokeswoman said: “A trade war is in nobody’s interests. We don’t want any tariffs at all, so for jobs and livelihoods across the UK, we will coolly and calmly continue to negotiate in Britain’s interests.”
Photos in Australian media on Wednesday are said to show Ms Giuffre being driven in a vehicle north of Perth.
The 41-year-old appeared with a bruised face last week when she posted an Instagram video saying her car had been hit by a speeding school bus as she slowed for a turn.
She said: “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure, they’ve given me four days to live, transferring me to a specialist hospital in urology.
“I’m ready to go, just not until I see my babies one last time…”
Police said they had received a report of a “minor crash” between a school bus and a car in Neergabby, about 12 miles from Perth, on 24 March.
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“The collision was reported by the bus driver the following day,” said a spokeswoman. “There were no reported injuries as a result of the crash.”
Ms Giuffre is reported to have separated from her husband.
The case was due back in court today (9 April).
Image: Ms Giuffre reached a settlement with the duke in 2022. File pic: AP
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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6:50
Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.