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The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump orders two nuclear subs to be moved closer to Russia

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Trump orders two nuclear submarines to be moved after 'highly provocative' comments from ex-Russian president

Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the “appropriate regions” in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

It comes after Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chair of Russia‘s Security Council, told the US president on Thursday to remember Moscow had Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.

On Friday, Mr Trump wrote on social media: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.

“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Trump-Russia live: Follow Ukraine war latest

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Trump: ‘We’re going to protect our people’

Speaking outside the White House later in the day, Mr Trump was asked about why he had moved the submarines and replied: “We had to do that. We just have to be careful.

“A threat was made and we didn’t think it was appropriate, so I have to be very careful. So I do that on the basis of safety for our people. A threat was made by a former president of Russia and we’re going to protect our people.”

The spat between Mr Trump and Mr Medvedev came after the US president warned Russia on Tuesday it had “10 days from today” to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tariffs, along with its oil buyers.

Moscow has shown no sign that it will agree to Mr Trump’s demands.

Trump’s move appears to signal a significant deterioration in relationship with Putin

Normally it’s Moscow rattling the nuclear sabres, but this time it’s Washington in what marks a dramatic escalation in Donald Trump’s war of words with the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

More importantly, it appears to signal a significant deterioration in his relationship with Vladimir Putin.

The US president’s patience with the Kremlin was already at its thinnest earlier this week, when he shrank his deadline for progress towards a peace deal from 50 days to 10.

But Russia’s lack of outward concern with this stricter ultimatum – which has swung from dismissive to (in Medvedev’s case) insulting – seems to have flicked a switch.

For this is the first time Trump’s pressure on Moscow has amounted to anything more than words.

We don’t know where the subs are, or how far they had to move to get closer to Russia, but it’s an act that sits several rungs higher than the usual verbal threats to impose sanctions.

How will Russia respond? I’m not sure Vladimir Putin has ever caved to an ultimatum and I doubt he’ll start now.

But I don’t think he’ll want the situation to deteriorate further. So I suspect he’ll make another offer to the US, that’s dressed up as a concession, but in reality may prove to be anything but.

It’s a tactic that’s worked before, but the stakes have suddenly got higher.

Read more:
Who are the winners (if any) and losers of Trump’s tariffs?

On Thursday, Mr Medvedev reminded Mr Trump that Russia possessed a Soviet-era automated nuclear retaliatory system – or “dead hand”.

Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was referring to a secretive semi-automated Soviet command system designed to launch Russia’s missiles if its leadership was taken out in a decapitating strike.

He made the remarks after Mr Trump told him to “watch his words” after Mr Medvedev said the US president’s threat of hitting Russia and its oil buyers with punitive tariffs was “a game of ultimatums” and added that “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war” between Russia and the US.

Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters
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Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters

Mr Medvedev served as Russia’s president from 2008 and 2012, when Mr Putin was barred from seeking a third consecutive term, but then stepped aside to let him run again.

As deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, he has become known for his provocative and inflammatory statements since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

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Trump says ‘nobody has asked’ him to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell – but he has ‘right to do it’

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Trump says 'nobody has asked' him to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell - but he has 'right to do it'

Donald Trump has said “nobody has asked” him to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell, but insisted he has “the right to do it” as US president.

Jeffrey Epstein’s former girlfriend is currently serving a 20-year sentence after being convicted of helping the paedophile financier traffic and sexually abuse underage girls in 2021.

Prosecutors have said Epstein’s sex crimes could not have been done without Maxwell, but her lawyers have maintained that she was wrongly prosecuted and denied a fair trial, and have floated the idea of a pardon from Mr Trump.

Last week, they asked the US Supreme Court to take up her case.

When pressed on the possibility of pardoning Maxwell, Mr Trump told reporters: “I’m allowed to do it, but nobody’s asked me to do it.”

He continued: “I know nothing about it. I don’t know anything about the case, but I know I have the right to do it. I have the right to give pardons, I’ve given pardons to people before, but nobody’s even asked me to do it.”

Mr Trump also said he would not pardon Sean “Diddy” Combs, who was convicted in July on two charges of transportation to engage in prostitution.

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Trump ‘never visited Espstein island’

His comments came shortly after the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) said Maxwell has been moved to a minimum-security prison camp in Texas.

She was being held at a low-security prison in Tallahassee, Florida, that housed men and women, but has now been transferred to a prison camp in Bryan, Texas.

When asked why Maxwell was transferred, BOP spokesperson Donald Murphy said he could not comment on the specifics, but that the BOP determines where inmates are sent based on such factors as “the level of security and supervision the inmate requires”.

Maxwell’s lawyer confirmed the move but also declined to discuss the specific reasons for it.

The Texas camp houses solely female prisoners, the majority of whom are serving time for nonviolent offences and white-collar crimes, Sky’s US partner NBC News reports.

Trump and Epstein at a party together in 1992. Pic: NBC News
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Trump and Epstein at a party together in 1992. Pic: NBC News

Minimum-security federal prison camps house inmates considered to be the lowest security risk and some facilities do not even have fences.

A senior administration official told NBC: “Any false assertion this individual was given preferential treatment is absurd.

“Prisoners are routinely moved in some instances due to significant safety and danger concerns.”

Read more:
All we know about Trump and Epstein’s ‘friendship’
Analysis: Trump hopes to escape Epstein controversy

Maxwell has received renewed attention in recent weeks, after the US Justice Department said it would not be releasing the so-called ‘Epstein files’.

The department said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.

Officials from the Trump administration have since tried to cast themselves as promoting transparency in the case.

Last month, they lodged a request to unseal grand jury transcripts – which was denied – and Maxwell was last week interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

Epstein survivor’s family criticises move

Maxwell’s move to a lower security facility has been criticised by the family of Epstein abuse survivor Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, and accusers Annie and Maria Farmer.

They said in a statement: “It is with horror and outrage that we object to the preferential treatment convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has received.

“Ghislaine Maxwell is a sexual predator who physically assaulted minor children on multiple occasions, and she should never be shown any leniency.

“Yet, without any notification to the Maxwell victims, the government overnight has moved Maxwell to a minimum security luxury prison in Texas.”

The statement concluded: “This move smacks of a cover up. The victims deserve better.”

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Elon Musk vows to appeal after Tesla ordered to pay $243m to victims of Autopilot crash

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Elon Musk vows to appeal after Tesla ordered to pay 3m to victims of Autopilot crash

A jury has ruled that Tesla is partly to blame for the death of a young woman who was hit by an electric car on Autopilot.

Naibel Benavides was stargazing at the time of the collision, which sent her flying 22m (75ft) through the air in Florida.

Her boyfriend was seriously injured in the 2019 incident, while her body was discovered in a wooded area.

The Tesla Model S pictured after the crash. Pic: NBC/Florida Highway Patrol
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The Tesla Model S pictured after the crash. Pic: NBC/Florida Highway Patrol

The company has now been ordered to pay $243m (£183m) in damages to Ms Benavides’ family, and to her partner Dillon Angulo.

Jurors concluded that not all of the blame could be put on a reckless driver who admitted he was distracted by his phone before he hit the young couple.

The motorist, George McGee, reached a separate settlement with the victims’ families in an earlier case.

Brett Schreiber, who represented the victims, said: “Tesla designed Autopilot only for controlled-access highways yet deliberately chose not to restrict drivers from using it elsewhere, alongside Elon Musk telling the world Autopilot drove better than humans.

More on Elon Musk

“Today’s verdict represents justice for Naibel’s tragic death and Dillon’s lifelong injuries.”

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Tesla bruised by Musk-Trump fallout

Tesla – and Elon Musk – have said it will appeal the verdict, labelling it “wrong” and a setback for automotive safety.

The verdict would also work to “jeopardise Tesla’s and the entire industry’s efforts to develop and implement life-saving technology”, the company warmed.

Tesla had claimed Mr McGee was solely to blame for the fatal crash because he had reached down to pick up a dropped mobile phone as his Model S sped through an intersection in Key Largo, Florida, at about 62mph.

Mr McGee allegedly did not receive alerts as he ran a stop sign and a red light – and the plaintiffs’ lawyer argued that the driver’s assistance should have warned the driver and braked before the collision.

The collision sent Ms Benavides Leon flying 22m (75ft) through the air, with her body later being discovered in a wooded area, while Mr Angulo suffered serious injuries.

“To be clear, no car in 2019, and none today, would have prevented this crash,” Tesla said. “This was never about Autopilot; it was a fiction concocted by plaintiffs’ lawyers blaming the car when the driver – from day one – admitted and accepted responsibility.”

Read more from Sky News:
Trump hits out again at ‘stubborn moron’
World’s oldest baby born in the US

Lawyers for the plaintiffs also alleged that Tesla either hid or lost key evidence, including data and video recorded seconds before the collision.

They showed the court that the company had the evidence all along, despite repeated denials, after hiring a forensic data expert who dug it up.

After being shown the evidence, Tesla said it made a mistake and honestly hadn’t thought it was there.

Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk onstage during an event for Tesla in Shanghai, China. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk hopes to convince people that his cars are safe to drive on their own. Pic: Reuters

Past cases against Tesla were dismissed or settled, so the verdict in this case could encourage more legal action.

Miguel Custodio, a car crash lawyer not involved in this trial, added: “This will open the floodgates. It will embolden a lot of people to come to court.”

The verdict comes as Mr Musk plans to roll out a driverless taxi service, hoping to convince people his vehicles are safe enough to drive on their own.

Improvements to the company’s driver assistance and partial self-driving features have been made in recent years – but in 2023, 2.3 million Tesla vehicles were recalled amid fears Autopilot was failing to sufficiently alert drivers not paying attention to the road.

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