The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.
Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.
But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.
How does the US election work?
If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.
Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.
Harris is currently leading in all of those.
You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile
But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.
Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.
Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.
Swing states
We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.
Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.
That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.
If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.
If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.
There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.
What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?
How does the US election work?
Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.
Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.
California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.
Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.
There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.
In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.
So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.
In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.
Who is the bookies’ favourite?
We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.
Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.
Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.
The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.
Who is the people’s favourite?
Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.
Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.
It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.
As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
New Orleans attacker Shamsud-Din Jabbar wore smart glasses to film the city’s French Quarter while cycling, in the weeks before his deadly atrocity, the FBI has said.
Jabbar made two trips to the southern city in October and November last year, according to the bureau.
The US citizen, from Houston, Texas, killed 14 people, including Briton Edward Pettifer, when he rammed his rental white pick-up truck into a crowd celebrating New Year in Bourbon Street in the historic French Quarter early on 1 January.
The 42-year-old former US army soldier was then killed in a shootout with police at the scene of the deadly crash.
In a news conference on Sunday, the fourteenth victim was confirmed by Louisiana governor Jeff Landry as LaTasha Polk. He said she worked as a nursing assistant and was the mother of a 14-year-old.
The FBI said Jabbar’s first trip, when he stayed at a rental home, started on 30 October, and lasted at least two days, and he was also in New Orleans on 10 November.
It said he made the cycling video on his first visit using the hands-free glasses, which were developed by US tech giant Meta and are capable of recording or livestreaming. They are designed to look like normal glasses and come in a range of styles.
Jabbar was wearing a pair of Meta smart glasses while he carried out the 1 January attack, but he did not activate them to livestream his actions that day.
Around 30 other people were injured in the incident. Thirteen remain in hospital, with eight people in intensive care.
What happened in the hours before the attack?
The FBI said Jabbar was seen on 31 December at one of several gun shops he visited in Texas leading up to the ramming attack. He then stopped at a business in Texas where he bought one of the ice boxes he used to hide an improvised explosive device (IED).
He entered Louisiana around 2.30pm local time (8.30pm UK time) on 31 December – hours before the attack – and his rented vehicle was later seen in the city of Gonzales, Louisiana, about 9pm that evening.
By 10pm, home camera footage showed Jabbar unloading the white pick-up truck in New Orleans outside his rental home in Mandeville Street.
The FBI said that just under three hours later, at 12.41am on 1 January, Jabbar parked the truck and walked to the junction of Royal and Governor Nichols Street.
It said Jabbar placed one IED in a cooler box at the junction of Bourbon Street and St Peter Street at 1.53am on New Year’s Day.
A person on Bourbon Street, not believed to be involved in the attack, dragged the cooler about a block where authorities found it after the attack.
A second IED was placed by Jabbar in a “bucket-type cooler” at 2.20am at the junction of Bourbon Street and Toulouse Street.
At 3.15am, Jabbar carried out his deadly attack, where he “used the truck as a lethal weapon”, said the FBI.
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Vigil for New Orleans attack victims
Two IEDs left in coolers several blocks apart were made safe.
Shortly after 5am, a fire was reported at the Mandeville Street rental home in New Orleans, where emergency services found explosive devices.
The FBI believes Jabbar acted alone.
“We have not seen any indications of an accomplice in the United States, but we are still looking into potential associates in the US and outside of our borders,” Deputy Assistant Director Christopher Raia said at the news conference.
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Jabbar also travelled to Cairo, Egypt, between 22 June and 3 July 2023, and a few days later on 10 July he flew to Ontario, Canada, before returning to the US on 13 July.
But it was not yet clear whether those trips were connected to the truck attack.
“Our agents are getting answers to where he went, who he went with and how those trips may or may not tie into his actions here,” said Lyonel Myrthil, FBI special agent in charge of the New Orleans Field Office.
Jabbar proclaimed his support for the Islamic State militant group in online videos posted hours before he struck.
‘Very rare explosive compound’
He used a very rare explosive compound which was found in the two functional IEDs he placed in New Orleans and authorities are investigating how he knew how to make this homemade explosive, two officials close to the investigation told Sky’s partner network NBC News.
The explosive has never been used in a US terror attack or incident nor has it been used in any European terror attack, said the officials.
A major winter storm has hit America, producing heavy snow and significant ice which is expected to last days.
Road conditions have become increasingly dangerous in the central US since Saturday, with snow in the most heavily affected regions – Kansas and northern Missouri – predicted to reach as high as 35.6cm.
Some 60 million people are under weather alerts across 30 states, with the National Weather Service warning that severe thunderstorms, with the possibility of tornadoes and hail, are also a possibility in some regions over the next few days.
Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky and Virginia have declared states of emergency as the storm, driven by a polar vortex, moves east.
A polar vortex is an area of low pressure and cold air that swirls like a wheel around each of Earth’s two polar regions. Sometimes the Arctic polar vortex wobbles and a lobe surges south, blanketing parts of North America with bitter temperatures.
It has already led to accidents across the nation, with a fire truck, several tractor-trailers and passenger vehicles overturned west of Salina, Kansas, on Saturday, and some trucks spiralled into ditches, state highway patrol trooper Ben Gardner said.
“We are in it now,” he said in a video on social media which showed him at the scene of an accident.
To demonstrate the danger on the roads, the trooper filmed himself running onto the seemingly clear road and sliding across it for several seconds due to what appeared to be black ice.
“That’s what we’re dealing with out here, and it’s not getting better, it’s getting worse, so get off the roads,” he warned.
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Freezing rain in Wichita, Kansas, led to multiple crashes on Saturday morning, authorities said, as they urged drivers to stay home if possible and watch out for emergency vehicles.
Governors in neighbouring Missouri and nearby Arkansas declared states of emergency, while snowy conditions threatened to make driving dangerous to impossible, forecasters warned.
“Please stay off the roads. Crews are seeing too many vehicles out and sliding off,” Missouri’s transportation department said on the social platform X.
Major airlines, including American, Delta, Southwest, and United, are waiving change fees ahead of likely flight disruptions in heavily affected regions.
Temperatures were well below zero in many areas on Saturday, such as -7C to -10C in Chicago, -18C in Minneapolis, and -25C in International Falls, Minnesota, on the Canadian border.
New Orleans has held a vigil to mourn the lives of the 14 people killed when a truck was driven into revellers celebrating the new year.
Some of the relatives of those killed were among those who gathered on Saturday night on Bourbon Street, the famous French Quarter thoroughfare where the attack took place,
The vigil began near a makeshift memorial with pictures of the victims, candles, teddy bears and flowers carefully laid out on the street.
The families held each and cried – but when a brass band began playing, the sorrow transformed into celebration as the crowd danced and followed the music.
Cathy Tenedorio, whose 25-year-old son Matthew died in the New Year’s Day attack, said she felt moved by the condolences and kindness at the vigil.
“This is the most overwhelming response of love, an outpouring of love,” she said. “I’m floating through it all.”
Autrele Felix, whose friend Nicole Perez was killed, said: “It means a lot, to see that our city comes together when there’s a real tragedy. We all become one.”
Others said getting into the party spirit was the best way to honour the victims.
“Because that’s what they were down here to do, they were having a good time,” said Kari Mitten, a life-long New Orleans resident.
The cause of death of all 14 victims has been listed as “blunt force injuries” by the coroner’s office.
Around 30 other people were injured in the attack, which saw former US army solider Shamsud-Din Jabbar drive a rented truck into crowds of people in the early hours of New Year’s Day.
Jabbar proclaimed his support for the Islamic State in videos posted online hours before the incident. He was shot dead in a firefight with police at the scene.
Of those injured, 13 remain in hospital and eight are in intensive care, a spokesperson for the University Medical Center New Orleans said.