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The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

A man has been taken into custody two days after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in Minnesota, law enforcement officials have said.

Authorities had urged the public not to approach Vance Boelter, 57, who they warned could be armed, and who was reportedly posing as a police officer.

A massive manhunt was launched on Saturday after Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at their home in Minneapolis in what Minnesota governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Police said the same gunman that killed the Hortmans had earlier shot and wounded Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, at their home nine miles away.

Graphic of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman (L) and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
Image:
Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature

Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.

He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Hoffman and his wife.

The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.
Image:
The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside the vehicle.

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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’

‘We are both incredibly lucky to be alive’

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Yvette Hoffman added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

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Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
Image:
The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

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Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who ‘posed as cop’ to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

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Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who 'posed as cop' to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

A manhunt is continuing after the gunning down of a Democrat politician and her husband – with police saying they’re acting on the assumption he is still alive and dangerous.

Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at home in a Minneapolis suburb on Saturday in what governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at their home nine miles away, but survived.

A search is under way for Vance Boelter, 57, who authorities believe wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were found inside.

Graphic of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman (L) and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
Image:
Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature

Boelter was last caught on camera wearing a cowboy hat – a similar hat was found near another vehicle belonging to him on Sunday.

Authorities said at their latest news conference they assume he is still alive.

Hundreds of police officers are searching for Boelter, who escaped from the Hortmans’ house on foot after an exchange of gunfire.

Vance Boelter images

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Mr Hoffman’s wife, Yvette, added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

“We believe [Boelter’s] somewhere in the vicinity and that they are going to find him,” Senator Klobuchar told NBC’s Meet the Press.

“Everyone’s on edge here,” she added, “because we know that this man will kill at a second.”

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

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Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned

Another vehicle belonging to Boelter was searched on Sunday in Minnesota’s Faxon Township. A cowboy hat similar to the one seen in the police appeal was found nearby.

It’s been revealed that the suspect texted friends around 6am on Saturday to say he had “made some choices” and was “going to be gone for a while”.

According to AP, which has seen the messages, he reportedly said: “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way… I’m sorry for all the trouble this has caused.”

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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
Image:
The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

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‘It feels like a bad dream’: Minnesota mourns victims of ‘politically motivated assassination’

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'It feels like a bad dream': Minnesota mourns victims of 'politically motivated assassination'

“Holy, holy, holy” they sang at the Church of St Timothy in Blaine, Minnesota.

But the congregation is struggling to comprehend an act of evil – the brutal murder of one of their own.

Church memorial
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The church congregation remembered Melissa and Mark Hortman

Melissa Hortman grew up here. The former state speaker and her husband Mark were shot dead in their home on Saturday morning.

Her friend and party colleague, Erin Koegal, was among those attending mass.

Erin
Image:
Erin Koegal says her friend’s death feels like a ‘bad dream’

“It still feels like a bad dream. I woke up this morning and was like, okay, so that was real,” she said.

“It’s hit me in waves, the grief, and the anger, and the sadness. She was a leader, a true definition of a leader.

“I’ve never known our party without Melissa as the leader and so I can’t, I don’t even know how we’re going to go forward as a caucus without her.”

The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman's front door.
Image:
The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman’s front door.

State senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette had already been shot and wounded.

Police sent to check on his colleague, Melissa Hortman, didn’t get there in time.

Vance Boelter
Image:
Police are extensively searching for 57-year-old Vance Boelter

They named the suspect as Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former Christian missionary.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated murder”.

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Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
Manhunt after Minnesota politician and husband shot dead

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Friends of Ms Hortman have told Sky News that her two children feared for their mother’s life after reading divisive rhetoric directed at her online.

Matt Norris, another political colleague of Ms Hortman, was also at church, reflecting on the rise of political violence in America.

Matt
Image:
Matt Norris

“We’ve going to have to do some serious introspection as a state, as a country, and figure out how do we get beyond this,” he said.

“How have we been laying the seeds that have led to horrific acts of violence against public servants like this?

“And it’s going to be incumbent upon us as leaders to set a different tone, to set a different direction for our state and our country so that horrific tragedies like this never occur again.”

Melissa Hortman
Image:
Tributes left for Melissa Hortman and her husband outside the Minnesota State Capitol

But there’s no sign of division at the State Capitol Building, where flags fly at half-mast and flowers are being left in tribute.

This is a community united in grief and in its hope for an end to gun violence in America.

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