Connect with us

Published

on

The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

US

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs holds head in his hands as jury reaches a partial verdict

Published

on

By

Sean 'Diddy' Combs holds head in his hands as jury reaches a partial verdict

Jurors in the trial of Sean “Diddy” Combs have reached a verdict on four of the five counts against him – but the hip-hop mogul will have to wait to learn his fate.

In tense scenes towards the end of the court day on Tuesday, jurors sent a note to say they had reached verdicts on two charges of sex trafficking and two charges of transportation for prostitution, but had been unable to reach a unanimous decision on the charge of racketeering conspiracy.

Combs‘s lawyers surrounded him at the defence table after the note was sent to the court, and at one point he held his head in his hands.

After discussions with prosecution and defence lawyers, Judge Arun Subramanian told jurors to continue deliberating on Wednesday rather than deliver a partial verdict.

Diddy trial – live updates

Sean 'Diddy' Combs and his attorney Marc Agnifilo. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
Image:
Combs and one of his lawyers, Marc Agnifilo, earlier in the day. Pic: Reuters/Jane Rosenberg

The jury has testimony from more than 30 witnesses to consider – including Combs’s former long-term partner Casandra “Cassie” Ventura and another former girlfriend called “Jane”, who testified under a pseudonym to protect her identity.

Prosecutors allege the 55-year-old rapper used his fame and power to force Cassie and “Jane” into drug-fuelled sex sessions with male sex workers, which were referred to as “freak-offs”, “wild king nights”, or “hotel nights”.

He was also physically violent and blackmailed them with footage, jurors were told.

They also heard from “Mia”, a former employee who alleged she was sexually assaulted by the rapper on several occasions during her career. She also testified using a pseudonym.

Combs has pleaded not guilty to all charges and his defence team has argued that prosecutors are attempting to criminalise what they say was a consensual “swingers lifestyle”.

The rapper chose not to testify and his lawyers did not call any witnesses, building their arguments instead through lengthy cross-examinations of the witnesses called by the prosecution.

The charges against Diddy – and potential sentences

Count 1: Racketeering conspiracy – up to life in prison

Count 2: Sex-trafficking of Cassie Ventura – a minimum of 15 years and maximum of life in prison

Count 3: Transporting individuals including but not limited to Cassie Ventura to engage in prostitution – a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison

Count 4: Sex-trafficking of Jane* – a minimum of 15 years and maximum of life in prison

Count 5: Transporting individuals including but not limited to Jane to engage in prostitution – a maximum of 10 years in prison

What is racketeering conspiracy?

Racketeering conspiracy, which is count one on the verdict sheet, is the most complicated of the charges against Combs.

Jurors need to decide not only whether the rapper created a “racketeering enterprise”, but also if he was involved in various offences as part of this, including kidnapping, arson and bribery.

The charge falls under the US’s RICO laws (the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations Act), which is best known for being used in relation to organised crime and drug cartel cases.

Read more:
Prosecution’s closing argument
Defence’s closing argument

After closing arguments last week, jurors began deliberation on Monday and had spent about 13 hours discussing in total by the time they sent their note.

Before reaching the verdict on the four counts, they had requested to review crucial testimony from Cassie about her account of an assault in a hotel in Los Angeles in 2016.

Captured on CCTV, the footage was played in court several times – showing Combs, wearing only a towel and socks, beating, kicking and dragging Cassie in a hallway.

His defence team admitted in their opening statement that this was domestic violence, and said the music star regretted these actions – but that they did not amount to any of the federal charges against him.

Read more:
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
What we learned from Cassie’s testimony

As well as Cassie’s evidence on that assault, they asked to see her testimony on an incident at the Cannes Film Festival in 2013 – when she said Combs accused her of taking drugs from him and kicked her off of his yacht.

On their way back to the US, she told the court, he threatened to release explicit videos of her having sex with an escort.

Jurors also wanted to review testimony given by a male sex worker at the start of the trial.

Combs could face 15 years to life in prison if he is convicted of all charges.

Jurors will continue deliberating on the racketeering conspiracy charge on Wednesday.

Continue Reading

US

Elon Musk steps up attacks on Trump once again – as the president fights back

Published

on

By

Elon Musk steps up attacks on Trump once again - as the president fights back

Elon Musk has stepped up his attacks on Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill – weeks after a spectacular fallout between the world’s richest man and the US president.

Following weeks of relative silence after clashing with Mr Trump over his “big beautiful bill”, the billionaire vowed to unseat politicians who support it.

In a post on X, Musk said those who had campaigned on cutting spending but then backed the bill “should hang their heads in shame”.

He added: “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

Musk also threatened to put their faces on a poster which said “liar” and “voted to increase America’s debt” by $5trn (£3.6trn).

The posts attracted a swift reply from Mr Trump, who claimed the billionaire “may get more subsidy than any human being in history” for his electric car business.

“Without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa,” he wrote on Truth Social.

“No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Elon’s dad on the Musk-Trump bust-up

Musk spent at least $250m (£182m) supporting Mr Trump in his presidential campaign and then led the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which sacked about 120,000 federal employees.

He has argued the legislation would greatly increase the US national debt and wipe out the savings he claimed he achieved through DOGE.

As the Senate discussed the package, Musk called it “utterly insane and destructive”.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said the bill’s massive spending indicated “we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!”

“Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people,” he wrote.

Read more from Sky News:
Stab victim describes horrible reality of knife crime
Royal train to be scrapped with family to rely on helicopters

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

Musk previously said some of his social media posts during his dramatic fallout with Mr Trump “went too far”.

He had shared a series of posts on X, including one that described Mr Trump’s tax and spending bill as a “disgusting abomination”.

He also claimed, in a since-deleted post, that the president appeared in files relating to the disgraced paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

But Musk later wrote: “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.”

In response, the president told the New York Post: “I thought it was very nice that he did that.”

Continue Reading

US

What’s in Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’?

Published

on

By

What's in Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill'?

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

Martha Kelner and Mark Stone break down what’s in Donald Trump’s huge tax and spending bill. He’s trying to sign it into law by the end of the week.

They also discuss the State Department’s decision to revoke US visas for British band Bob Vylan after their Glastonbury performance.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

Continue Reading

Trending