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The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump says second UK state visit could happen in September

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Donald Trump says second UK state visit could happen in September

Donald Trump has said his second state visit to the UK could take place in September.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer handed over an invitation from the King when he visited Washington in February.

Trump teases return to UK – latest updates

Buckingham Palace previously only said the visit would happen “when diaries allow”, but Mr Trump told reporters on Thursday: “I think they are setting a date for September.”

“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one,” he said.

“The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”

Sir Keir Starmer the Trump charmer.
Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer handed Trump the invite earlier this year. Pic: PA

Mr Trump will become the only elected political leader in modern times to be invited to two state visits by a British monarch.

The president called the UK a “great country” in his comments at the White House on Thursday and said it was “an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William”.

His first state visit was in 2019, when he was hosted by the late Queen.

Second-term US presidents who have already made a state visit usually get tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.

Read more from Sky News:
Four killed as cable car crashes to ground near Naples

Two dead and five injured in shooting at Florida university

The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters

But Mr Trump is set to get all the pomp and ceremony laid on again in his honour – with another state banquet likely at Buckingham Palace.

The Royal Family‘s soft power diplomacy is viewed as a way of currying favour with the president, who’s known for his love of the monarchy and links to the UK through his mother, who was born on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland.

It comes as the government seeks an economic deal with the US, in the hope of potentially lessening the impact of the president’s tariffs.

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Four in hospital as police deal with active shooter at Florida university

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Four in hospital as police deal with active shooter at Florida university

Four people are in hospital as police deal with an active shooter on a university campus in Florida.

Videos showed people running through traffic, fleeing the scene, around the time of the shooting at the student union at Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee.

Local police were “on the scene or on the way”, according to an alert sent out by the school and students have been told to “shelter in place”.

The FBI is also said to be responding to the incident.

Florida State University students wait for news amid an active shooter incident at the school.
Pic: AP/Kate Payne
Image:
Florida State University students wait for news amid an active shooter incident at the school.
Pic: AP/Kate Payne

In a statement, Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare said it was “actively receiving and caring for patients” from the incident.

“At this time, details are still unfolding, and we do not yet have specific information to share. However, we want to assure the community that our teams are fully mobilised and prepared to provide the highest level of care and support to all those affected,” it added.

President Donald Trump said he was fully briefed on the incident and described it as “a shame”.

More on Florida

He added: “It’s a horrible thing. Horrible that things like this take place.”

Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in a statement posted on X, said: “Our prayers are with our FSU family and state law enforcement is actively responding.”

Ambulances, fire trucks and police vehicles raced to the campus around midday local time (5pm UK time) on Thursday.

As students streamed away from the area of the student union in their hundreds, some were visibly emotional and others were glued to their phones.

Dozens later gathered near the university’s music school, waiting for news.

Florida State University student Daniella Streety told NBC News of the chaos that unfolded at the scene.

She remained on lockdown in a campus building and said: “I did see them carry out one student in what looked like on a stretcher and kept them in the road until an ambulance was able to pick them up.”

Joshua Sirmans, 20, was in the university’s main library when he said alarms began going off warning of an active shooter.

Police escorted him and other students out of the library with their hands over their heads, he said.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

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US judge warns Trump administration could be in criminal contempt over El Salvador deportations

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White House rages at 'appalling' attempt to return wrongly deported man from El Salvador

A US federal judge has warned that he could hold the Trump administration in contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.

US District Judge James E. Boasberg said he had found “probable cause” to hold the administration in criminal contempt and warned he could refer the matter for prosecution if it does not “purge” its contempt.

If the government doesn’t purge the contempt, charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News reported.

And if the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.

Mr Boasberg said the administration could “purge contempt by returning those who were sent to El Salvador prison, in violation of his order, to the US.

This, he said, “might avail themselves of their right to challenge their removability”.

“The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it,” the judge wrote.

Executive vs judicial

This marks a notable escalation in the ongoing tensions between the judicial and executive branches of the US government during Donald Trump’s second term.

Parts of the US president’s legislative programme have been halted by judges, as the administration strains against the restraints of the separation of powers.

Mr Trump previously called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached while the Justice Department claimed he overstepped his authority – both reflecting the administration’s attempts to overcome perceived obstacles to the implementation of its agenda.

Mr Trump’s administration has also argued it did not violate any orders.

It claimed the judge didn’t include a turnaround directive in his written order and said the planes had already left the US by the time the order came down.

‘Administrative error’

At the heart of the legal wrangling is Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man who was sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.

Washington acknowledged that Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.

The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed that Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.

Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA / AP
Image:
Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP

Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.

This all comes after El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele visited the White House earlier this week.

During his time with Mr Trump, Mr Bukele said that he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States.”

The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque
Image:
The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, whom it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.

Democrat senator travels to El Salvador

Meanwhile, Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday, saying he would seek a meeting with the country’s officials to secure Mr Garcia’s release.

“I just arrived in San Salvador a little while ago and look forward to meeting with the US embassy team to discuss Mr. Abrego Garcia’s release,” Mr Van Hollen said on social media.

Deportations have been an important part of Mr Trump’s second term, with him being vocal on the issue throughout the campaign trail and into office.

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