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Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, bitcoin will thrive over the long term regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.

That’s a view many crypto investors are coming to accept, as the wave of optimism spurred by former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto overtures this summer starts to recede.

“Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin. 

“Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States,” Lubka added. “Neither candidate changes that.”

Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow limit the price of bitcoin or drive it lower are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder at crypto trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. Crypto startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to fight its way forward and thrive, he noted. It helps that bitcoin became more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of U.S. bitcoin exchange traded funds.

“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced the sky will fall if one side or the other wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, not centered on the U.S., and hasn’t reacted negatively to major events from either side” of the partisan divide.

“This is about opportunities and regulation for U.S.-based users, not[the] price of a global commodity,” he added. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to lobby both sides, align with both sides and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a big eco-system, we cannot afford to be partisan.”

Exaggerated risk

Lubka agreed that some observers “overplay the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry experienced during the Biden administration. That said, he added, “all of the signposts that we’re seeing with Harris continually represent a de-escalation” of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric.

“The election results will have minimal effects on how bitcoin performs over the next 12 to18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial. “There’s still a lot of firms working through ETF access, there’s rate cuts coming and trading by retail at the centralized custodians are at their lows. [It] definitely will be harder for young startups, but as a developing institutional grade, quality asset it will continue to prove itself no matter who is in office.”

Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after reaching its all-time high above $73,000 in March. Investors have widely expected the price to continue in this lull until U.S. voters decide the next president. Election news, however, has lately had less of an impact on bitcoin’s price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.

After the debate on Tuesday night between Harris and Trump, bitcoin fell about 3%, although investors attributed that to interest rate updates in Japan and some positioning around U.S. inflation data for August that was released early Wednesday.

Growing partisan sentiment

In recent months, it had been speculated that the election would serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin – with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president, for example, addressed the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July in Nashville, and ensured a reference was made a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that that if he wins on Nov. 5, the cryptocurrency could break to a new all-time high around $80,000. A Harris victory, however, could push bitcoin toward $40,000, Bernstein said.

“If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate pump? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be some immediate sell pressure? That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But over the medium term, I don’t think that’s the dynamic,” said Lubka of Swan Bitcoin.

Vice President Harris has not shared a public view on crypto but parts of the industry are concerned she’s antagonistic to crypto and shares views of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler that are thought to be holding back crypto adoption.

“There hasn’t been clear statements, but there has been a bad history under the Biden administration … so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said. 

Although there are concerns thanks to the Biden administration’s position on bitcoin, “I would remind investors … that bitcoin did great,” under the current adminustration, Lubka added. It “has been one of the most successful assets in the world during a period where everyone was opposed to it. Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin during its whole history, and it’s done extremely well.”

Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in all but three years since 2012. 

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SEC says Elon Musk should be sanctioned if he keeps dodging Twitter depositions

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SEC says Elon Musk should be sanctioned if he keeps dodging Twitter depositions

Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of X looks on during the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 6, 2024. 

David Swanson | Reuters

The Securities and Exchange Commission has asked a federal judge to sanction Elon Musk if he continues to violate the court’s order to appear for a deposition in a probe of his 2022 Twitter acquisition.

The SEC has been investigating whether Musk or anyone else working with him committed securities fraud in 2022 as the Tesla CEO sold shares in his automaker and shored up a stake in Twitter, ahead of his leveraged buyout of the company now known as X.

In May, the court ordered Musk to appear for a deposition by the financial regulators regarding the Twitter deal.

“Musk has now failed to appear before the SEC twice: first in September 2023, in defiance of a lawful administrative subpoena, and last week, in defiance of a clear court order,” SEC attorney Robin Andrews said in the Friday filing.

Andrews asked the judge to consider sanctions should Musk delay further, according to the filing.

“The Court must make clear that Musk’s gamesmanship and delay tactics must cease,” Andrews wrote.

The filing also revealed, in a footnote, that the SEC intends to ask the court to hold Musk in “civil contempt” for canceling a deposition on Sept. 10, giving the agency only a few hours notice that he would not appear. Musk’s cancellation cost the SEC time and money after it sent personnel to Los Angeles to depose him and he didn’t appear for the investigative interview, the agency said.

Musk’s deposition in the probe has been rescheduled for a date in early October at an SEC office, the filing said.

“Without further action by the Court, nothing deters Musk” from “simply failing to show up for that date,” Andrews wrote.

Musk’s attorney, Alex Spiro, a partner at Quinn Emanuel in New York, wrote in a response that “such drastic action would be inappropriate,” adding that the SEC and Musk had agreed rescheduling would be permissible in light of an emergency.

Additionally, Musk and his companies have “cooperated and are cooperating with the SEC in multiple other ongoing investigations,” Spiro wrote.

In a separate, civil lawsuit concerning the same Twitter deal, the Oklahoma Firefighters Pension and Retirement System has sued Musk in a federal court in New York accusing him of deliberately concealing his progressive investments in Twitter and intent to buy out the company.

The pension fund’s attorneys argue that Musk, by failing to clearly disclose his investments in and intentions to buy Twitter, had influenced other shareholders’ decisions and put them at a disadvantage.

Discovery from that case in New York yielded correspondence between an unnamed person at Morgan Stanley, and the executive who manages Musk’s money, Jared Birchall. In the messages, the Morgan Stanley contact wrote in February 2022 that Musk’s Twitter stock-buying strategy was closely held.

“No one knows what is going on and why but you and me,” the person at Morgan Stanley wrote. “Not compliance, not anyone.”

Read the court filing below:

Elon Musk's X is a financial 'disaster,' co-authors of new book 'Character Limit' say

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Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a possible takeover

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Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a possible takeover

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon speaks at the Computex forum in Taipei, Taiwan, June 3, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

Qualcomm recently approached struggling chipmaker Intel about a takeover, CNBC has confirmed.

It wasn’t clear if Intel had engaged in conversations with Qualcomm or what the terms would be, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the information was confidential.

The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the matter. Intel shares initially popped on the news before closing up about 3%, while Qualcomm shares fell about 3% at the close. 

The deal, if it were to happen, would be one of the largest technology mergers ever. Intel has a market cap of over $90 billion.

Once the world’s largest chipmaker, Intel has for years been in a downward spiral that accelerated in 2024. The stock had its biggest one-day drop in over 50 years in August after the company reported disappointing earnings. Intel shares are down 53% this year as investors express doubts about the company’s costly plans to manufacture and design chips.

Qualcomm and Intel compete in several markets, including for PC and laptop chips. However, Qualcomm, unlike Intel, doesn’t manufacture its own chips, and instead relies on firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung to handle production.

On Monday, after a board meeting to discuss strategy, Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger sent a memo to staff that reiterated the company’s commitment to investing heavily in its foundry business, a project that could cost $100 billion over the next five years. It also said that it was weighing outside investment.

Intel has also missed out on the artificial intelligence boom that’s captured the attention of Wall Street. Most of the advanced AI programs, such as ChatGPT, run on Nvidia graphics processors, instead of Intel central processors. Nvidia has more than 80% of the fast-growing market, according to analysts.

Qualcomm generates less revenue than Intel. It reported $35.8 billion in sales in fiscal 2023, compared with Intel’s $54.2 billion during the same period.

A potential deal would be complicated by antitrust and national security matters. Both Intel and Qualcomm do business in China, and both have seen deals scuttled by Chinese antitrust enforcers. Intel was unsuccessful with its attempted acquisition of Tower Semiconductor, as was Qualcomm in its bid to acquire NXP Semiconductor.

Other giant acquisitions in the space have also been scuttled. In 2017, Broadcom made a bid to buy Qualcomm for more than $100 billion. The Trump administration blocked the deal the following year on national security concerns, because Broadcom was based in Singapore at the time. And in 2021, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia’s attempted purchase of Arm on antitrust grounds. The deal was called off in 2022 following additional pressure from regulators in Europe and Asia.

Representatives for Qualcomm and Intel declined to comment.

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Apple iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4 debut around the world

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Apple iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4 debut around the world

Apple CEO Tim Cook: We're very excited about iPhone 16 demand

Apple on Friday greeted customers at its stores around the world for the debuts of the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4.

The new products were announced at an event earlier this month and have been available for pre-order since Sept. 13. The company lit up the glass cube at its Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City, in a nod to the enhanced Siri, which will light up the borders of the new iPhone’s screen when that feature rolls out next month.

Apple’s fresh iPhones mark the company’s latest move into artificial intelligence, with new Apple Intelligence features that will begin to launch in October. The new features will allow customers to rewrite text, remove objects from photos and speak with an improved Siri. The software advancements will only be available on iPhone 16 and last year’s iPhone 15 Pro devices.

A view of Apple’s new iPhone 16 at an Apple Store on the Regent Street in London, United Kingdom on September 20, 2024. 

Rasid Necati Aslim | Anadolu | Getty Images

But Apple shares slid on Monday after analyst reports suggested that demand for the latest iPhones was lower than expected. TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a note on Monday that first-weekend sales were down about 12% year over year from the iPhone 15 last year. Barclays, JPMorgan and Bank of America also noted shipping times could translate to lighter demand for the more expensive iPhone Pro models compared with last year.

CNBC’s Steve Kovach spoke with CEO Tim Cook outside Apple’s Fifth Avenue store and asked whether sales looked better or worse than last year. “I don’t know yet. It’s only the first hour, so we’ll see,” Cook said.

On Friday, UBS analysts suggested investors shouldn’t overreact to what appears to be lighter sales because that data is also collected by analyzing the wait times for new iPhone models and that those were longer last year due in part to supply chain disruptions.

Apple Store Fifth Avenue in New York

Steve Kovach| CNBC

“Ahead of the iPhone 16 announcement, our analysis suggested that a lack of a killer app and arguably somewhat half-baked introduction of Apple Intelligence would dampen demand,” the UBS analysts wrote. “While we still argue the collection of iPhone/iOS attributes are more evolutionary than revolutionary, we caution that investors not overreact to data that suggests somewhat initial tepid demand.”

The UBS analysts said supply chain disruptions last year “slightly distorted/extended last year’s data,” which led to longer wait times for customers for Pro models. Last year, UBS wrote, customers had a 41-day wait time for some iPhone 15 Pro Max pre-orders compared with a 26-day wait time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max this year.

“Nevertheless, data across all models and regions roughly a week post launch support our view that a super-cycle is not imminent as US and China data on the margin is disappointing relative to last year,” they wrote.

Devices of the new Apple Watch Series 10 model are on display after the presentation at Apple headquarters. 

Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The Apple Watch Series 10 offers a larger screen than that of earlier models. It will support, along with the earlier Series 9, new Sleep Apnea detection, as well as other fresh features. The AirPods 4 offer a refresh with a smaller charging case and an option with noise cancellation.

CNBC reviewed the new iPhone 16 Pro Max and the Apple Watch Series 10 earlier in the week.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Steve Kovach contributed to this report.

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