Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, bitcoin will thrive over the long term regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
That’s a view many crypto investors are coming to accept, as the wave of optimism spurred by former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto overtures this summer starts to recede.
“Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States,” Lubka added. “Neither candidate changes that.”
Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow limit the price of bitcoin or drive it lower are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder at crypto trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. Crypto startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to fight its way forward and thrive, he noted. It helps that bitcoin became more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of U.S. bitcoin exchange traded funds.
“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced the sky will fall if one side or the other wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, not centered on the U.S., and hasn’t reacted negatively to major events from either side” of the partisan divide.
“This is about opportunities and regulation for U.S.-based users, not[the] price of a global commodity,” he added. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to lobby both sides, align with both sides and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a big eco-system, we cannot afford to be partisan.”
Exaggerated risk
Lubka agreed that some observers “overplay the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry experienced during the Biden administration. That said, he added, “all of the signposts that we’re seeing with Harris continually represent a de-escalation” of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric.
“The election results will have minimal effects on how bitcoin performs over the next 12 to18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial. “There’s still a lot of firms working through ETF access, there’s rate cuts coming and trading by retail at the centralized custodians are at their lows. [It] definitely will be harder for young startups, but as a developing institutional grade, quality asset it will continue to prove itself no matter who is in office.”
Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after reaching its all-time high above $73,000 in March. Investors have widely expected the price to continue in this lull until U.S. voters decide the next president. Election news, however, has lately had less of an impact on bitcoin’s price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.
After the debate on Tuesday night between Harris and Trump, bitcoin fell about 3%, although investors attributed that to interest rate updates in Japan and some positioning around U.S. inflation data for August that was released early Wednesday.
Growing partisan sentiment
In recent months, it had been speculated that the election would serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin – with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president, for example, addressed the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July in Nashville, and ensured a reference was made a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that that if he wins on Nov. 5, the cryptocurrency could break to a new all-time high around $80,000. A Harris victory, however, could push bitcoin toward $40,000, Bernstein said.
“If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate pump? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be some immediate sell pressure? That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But over the medium term, I don’t think that’s the dynamic,” said Lubka of Swan Bitcoin.
Vice President Harris has not shared a public view on crypto but parts of the industry are concerned she’s antagonistic to crypto and shares views of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler that are thought to be holding back crypto adoption.
“There hasn’t been clear statements, but there has been a bad history under the Biden administration … so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said.
Although there are concerns thanks to the Biden administration’s position on bitcoin, “I would remind investors … that bitcoin did great,” under the current adminustration, Lubka added. It “has been one of the most successful assets in the world during a period where everyone was opposed to it. Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin during its whole history, and it’s done extremely well.”
Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in all but three years since 2012.
The European Union is so far the only jurisdiction globally to drive forward comprehensive rules for artificial intelligence with its AI Act.
Jaque Silva | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The European Union on Wednesday presented a plan to boost its artificial intelligence industry and help it compete more aggressively with the U.S. and China, following criticisms from technology firms that its regulations are too cumbersome.
In a press release, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, outlined its so-called “AI Continent Action Plan,” which aims to “transform Europe’s strong traditional industries and its exceptional talent pool into powerful engines of AI innovation and acceleration.”
Among the ways Europe plans to bolster regional AI developments are a commitment to build a network of AI factories and “gigafactories” and create specialized labs designed to improve the access of startups to high-quality training data.
The EU defines these “factories” as large facilities that house state-of-the-art chips needed to train and develop the most advanced AI models.
The bloc will also create a new AI Act Service Desk to help regional firms comply with its landmark AI law.
“The AI Act raises citizens’ trust in technology and provides investors and entrepreneurs with the legal certainty they need to scale up and deploy AI throughout Europe,” the Commission said, adding the AI Act Service Desk will “serve as the central point of contact and hub for information and guidance” on the rules.
The plan bears similarities to the U.K.’s AI Action Plan announced earlier this year. Like the EU, Britain committed to expand domestic AI infrastructure to aid developers.
Hindering innovation?
The launch of the EU’s AI plan arrives as the bloc is facing criticisms from tech leaders that its rules on everything from AI to taxation hinder innovation and make it harder for startups to operate across the region.
The bloc’s landmark legislation known as the AI Act has proven particularly thorny for companies in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence industry.
The law regulates applications of AI based on the level of risk they pose to society — and in recent years it has been adapted to cover so-called “foundational” model makers such as OpenAI and French startup Mistral, much to the ire of some of the buzziest businesses in that space.
At a global AI summit in Paris earlier this year, OpenAI’s Chief Global Affairs Officer Chris Lehane told CNBC that European political and business leaders increasingly fear missing out on AI’s potential and want regulators to focus less on tackling risks associated with the technology.
“There’s almost this fork in the road, maybe even a tension right now between Europe at the EU level … and then some of the countries,” Lehane told CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal in February. “They’re looking to maybe go in a little bit of a different direction that actually wants to embrace the innovation.”
The U.S. administration has also been critical of Europe over its treatment of American tech giants and fast-growing AI startups.
At the Paris AI summit in February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance took aim at Europe’s regulatory approach to AI, stressing that “we need our European friends in particular to look to this new frontier with optimism rather than trepidation.”
“There is a real emphasis on easing the burden of regulation and removing barriers to innovation, which in part is likely to reflect some of the concerns that have been raised by the US government,” John Buyers, global head of AI at law firm Osborne Clarke, told CNBC over email.
“This isn’t only about the EU: If they are serious about eliminating legal uncertainties caused by interpretation of the EU’s AI Act, then this would be a real boost for AI developers and users in the UK and the US, as the AI Act applies to all AI used in the EU, regardless of where sourced.”
Musk, the world’s richest person, started going after Navarro over the weekend, posting on X that a “PhD in econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” a reference to Navarro’s degree. Whatever subtlety remained at the beginning of the week has since vanished.
On Tuesday, Musk wrote that “Navarro is truly a moron,” noting that his comments about Tesla being a “car assembler,” as much are “demonstrably false.” Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later apologizing to bricks. Musk also called Navarro “dangerously dumb.”
Musk’s attacks on Navarro represent the most public spat between members of President Trump’s inner circle since the term began in January, and show that the steep tariffs announced last week on more than 180 countries and territories don’t have universal approval in the administration.
When asked about the feud in a briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”
“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.
For Musk, whose younger brother Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action, the name-calling appears to be tied to business conditions.
Tesla’s stock is down 22% in the past four trading sessions and 45% for the year. Tesla has lost more tha $585 billion in value since the calendar turned, equaling tens of billions of dollars in paper losses for Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and the owner of xAI and social network X.
Even before President Trump detailed his plan for widespread tariffs, he’d already placed a 25% tariff on vehicles not assembled in the U.S. Many analysts said Tesla could withstand those tariffs better than competitors because its vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled domestically.
But the company’s production costs are poised to increase because of the tariffs on materials and parts from foreign suppliers. Canada and Mexico are among the leading sources of U.S. steel imports, and Canada is the nation’s largest supplier of aluminum, while China and Mexico are home to major suppliers of printed circuit boards to the automotive industry.
At a recent an event hosted by right-wing Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Musk said, “Both Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.”
Musk, whose view on trade relations with Europe stands in stark contrast to the policies implemented by the president, has a vested interest in the region. Tesla has a large car factory outside of Berlin, and the European Commission previously turned to SpaceX for launches.
Even before the tariffs, Tesla’s business was faltering. Last week, the company reported a 13% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries, missing analysts’ estimates. That report that landed days after Tesla’s stock price wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022.
Musk, who spent roughly $290 billion to help return Trump to the White House, is now leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which has slashed costs, eliminated regulations and cut tens of thousands of federal jobs. In the first quarter, Tesla was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work in the White House.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, laughs as he attends a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2020.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Apple‘s 23% plunge over the past four trading sessions has again turned Microsoft into the world’s most valuable public company.
As of Tuesday’s close, Microsoft is worth $2.64 trillion, while Apple’s market cap stands at $2.59 trillion.
While the market broadly is getting hammered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan, Apple is getting hit the hardest among tech’s megacap companies due to the iPhone maker’s reliance on China.
The Nasdaq is down 13% over the past four trading days, as President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries has sparked fears of a recession brought on by rising prices. UBS analysts on Monday predicted that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could jump as much as $350 in the U.S.
Both Apple and Microsoft, along with chipmaker Nvidia, were previously valued at upward of $3 trillion before the recent sell-off.
In January, Microsoft issued disappointing revenue guidance. Nevertheless, last week, as Jefferies analysts reduced their price targets on many software stocks, they wrote Microsoft was among the “companies who we view as more insulated” from tariff uncertainty.