Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, bitcoin will thrive over the long term regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
That’s a view many crypto investors are coming to accept, as the wave of optimism spurred by former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto overtures this summer starts to recede.
“Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States,” Lubka added. “Neither candidate changes that.”
Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow limit the price of bitcoin or drive it lower are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder at crypto trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. Crypto startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to fight its way forward and thrive, he noted. It helps that bitcoin became more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of U.S. bitcoin exchange traded funds.
“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced the sky will fall if one side or the other wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, not centered on the U.S., and hasn’t reacted negatively to major events from either side” of the partisan divide.
“This is about opportunities and regulation for U.S.-based users, not[the] price of a global commodity,” he added. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to lobby both sides, align with both sides and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a big eco-system, we cannot afford to be partisan.”
Exaggerated risk
Lubka agreed that some observers “overplay the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry experienced during the Biden administration. That said, he added, “all of the signposts that we’re seeing with Harris continually represent a de-escalation” of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric.
“The election results will have minimal effects on how bitcoin performs over the next 12 to18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial. “There’s still a lot of firms working through ETF access, there’s rate cuts coming and trading by retail at the centralized custodians are at their lows. [It] definitely will be harder for young startups, but as a developing institutional grade, quality asset it will continue to prove itself no matter who is in office.”
Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after reaching its all-time high above $73,000 in March. Investors have widely expected the price to continue in this lull until U.S. voters decide the next president. Election news, however, has lately had less of an impact on bitcoin’s price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.
After the debate on Tuesday night between Harris and Trump, bitcoin fell about 3%, although investors attributed that to interest rate updates in Japan and some positioning around U.S. inflation data for August that was released early Wednesday.
Growing partisan sentiment
In recent months, it had been speculated that the election would serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin – with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president, for example, addressed the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July in Nashville, and ensured a reference was made a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that that if he wins on Nov. 5, the cryptocurrency could break to a new all-time high around $80,000. A Harris victory, however, could push bitcoin toward $40,000, Bernstein said.
“If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate pump? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be some immediate sell pressure? That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But over the medium term, I don’t think that’s the dynamic,” said Lubka of Swan Bitcoin.
Vice President Harris has not shared a public view on crypto but parts of the industry are concerned she’s antagonistic to crypto and shares views of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler that are thought to be holding back crypto adoption.
“There hasn’t been clear statements, but there has been a bad history under the Biden administration … so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said.
Although there are concerns thanks to the Biden administration’s position on bitcoin, “I would remind investors … that bitcoin did great,” under the current adminustration, Lubka added. It “has been one of the most successful assets in the world during a period where everyone was opposed to it. Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin during its whole history, and it’s done extremely well.”
Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in all but three years since 2012.
Cisco Systems shares spiked higher Wednesday evening after the networking company delivered a quarterly beat and outlook raise. Another quarter of double-digit order growth proves Cisco is an underrated winner from the AI infrastructure buildout. Revenue in the company’s fiscal 2026 first quarter, which ended Oct. 25, increased 8% year over year to $14.88 billion, exceeding the LSEG-complied analyst consensus estimate of $14.76 billion. Non-GAAP earnings increased 10% on an annual basis to $1 per share, beating expectations of 98 cents, LSEG data showed. GAAP stands for generally accepted accounting principles. CSCO YTD mountain Cisco Systems YTD Look at the shares of Cisco go. They surged more than 7% in after-hours trading to just about $80 per share. That’s on top of a 3% move in regular trading hours. If the stock can take out $80.06, it will make its first all-time high since March 2000. Shares, as of Wednesday’s close, rose roughly 25% year to date. Bottom line It’s a deserving move after an excellent quarter, highlighted by accelerating product order growth, especially from artificial intelligence customers. During the post-earnings call, Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins attributed the strength in AI orders to a “deepening” relationship with existing customers. The company also called out that a “major multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh cycle” is underway. It wasn’t all perfect, however, as the security business missed estimates, with revenue falling year over year. According to management, some revenue recognition timing issues need to be sorted out. Security weakness was our main concern ahead of the quarter. The business also missed revenue estimates in the prior quarter, and we didn’t think a quick turnaround was likely. Our fear of this repeat was the main reason why we took some profits in this position Monday at around $71. Even though we were right to be cautious on security, the market was turning a blind eye to this issue because of how fast networking is growing. A rebound in security also isn’t needed for management to hit on its outlook, which was raised well above Street estimates Wednesday evening. Another concern of the bears entering earnings was that Cisco would be negatively impacted by the government shutdown due to its large federal agencies business. Despite the closed government, Robbins noted this business managed to grow orders by a high single-digit percentage in the quarter. He’s anticipating upside in orders once the government reopens. Why we own it Cisco Systems is an enterprise networking equipment provider that has made big strides to appeal to cloud customers. The company has also increased its presence in the security market through its acquisition of Splunk. In addition, Cisco’s long-term transition toward subscription software sales, which are sticky and come with higher margins, should help improve the stock’s undemanding price-to-earnings multiple. Competitors : Arista Networks , Hewlett Packard Enterprise , Juniper Networks Most recent buy : Aug. 19, 2025 Initiated : July 17, 2025 The story remains that Cisco has turned into a sleeper AI play thanks to the billions of dollars it is taking in from hyperscaler customers. That surge of orders is converting to big revenue. In fiscal year 2025, Cisco recognized roughly $1 billion of AI revenue from hyperscalers, which are the biggest of the Big Tech names, such as the major cloud companies. On the call, Robbins said he expects to recognize roughly $3 billion from hyperscalers in fiscal year 2026. Despite this accelerating growth and subscription revenue making up more than half of its total revenue, the stock still trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings multiple of about 19.5 times based on the new midpoint of management’s full-year adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) outlook. We’re reiterating our 2 rating because we don’t like to chase stock spikes, but we are increasing our price target to $85 per share from $78. Commentary Total Product orders increased 13% year over year – an acceleration from 7% growth in the prior quarter – with growth across all geographies and customer markets. When we review Cisco, we always focus on orders because that’s the best leading indicator of where revenue is headed. Product revenue grew 10% year over year to $7.77 billion, beating estimates of about $7.47 billion. Starting with the Networking sub-segment, product orders increased by a high teens rate, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. AI infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers were a big driver of that growth. Cisco took in $1.3 billion of orders in the quarter, an acceleration from the more than $800 million in the prior quarter. The company also saw strong orders for enterprise routing, campus switching, wireless, industrial IoT, and servers. Credit Cisco’s close relationships with portfolio name Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices for its recent AI success. Last month, Cisco announced the N9100, which they called the first Nvidia partner developed data center switch based on Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet switch silicon. “The N9100, available in the second half of fiscal year 2026, will provide the operational consistency and flexibility needed for sovereign and neocloud providers to build and manage AI at scale,” Robbins explained. Neoclouds are next-generation specialized clouds for accelerated computing. CoreWeave , which rents cloud-based Nvidia chips for AI tasks, is an example of a neocloud. Cisco is also helping G42, leading United Arab Emirates AI firm, with powering, connecting, and securing its large-scale AI clusters with AMD graphics processing units (GPUs) The enterprise AI story is starting to emerge, too. Cisco experienced strong demand for switching, routing, and wireless products, which Robbins said is an indication of customers “investing in the connectivity needed for AI deployments.” Across sovereign, neocloud, and enterprise customers, Robbins called out a growing pipeline above $2 billion for its high performance networking products. This comes after Cisco booked $200 million of orders in its fiscal first quarter from these customers. By division, Networking revenue increased 15% to $7.77 billion, beating estimates. The largest driver of this increase in sales was from service provider routing, which is mostly from AI infrastructure. Data center switches and enterprise routing were also up double digits, while campus switching revenue increased by a high single digit percentage. In the Security division, revenue fell 2% year over year and missed analysts’ forecasts again. It’s disappointing to see a sizeable miss in back-to-back quarters, but management attributed the decline to a timing issue. Robbins explained that more customers are using Splunk’s offerings through cloud subscriptions instead of on-premise deals, leading to a timing change of when revenue is recognized. Ultimately, this transition isn’t a bad thing. The company is in favor of more subscription-based revenue. Cisco completed its $28 billion acquisition of Splunk in March 2024. “We are actually pleased to see more cloud subscriptions for Splunk as they enable greater adoption and expansion, and allow us to deliver innovation faster to enable customers to unlock value from AI Now ” Robbins explained on the call. More broadly. Cisco said it continued to see order growth for some of it newer and refreshed security products, which make up about one third of the portfolio, while its order products are in decline. Importantly, management doesn’t believe Security’s stumbles will last long. They expect revenue growth to accelerate and end the year at a much higher rate. But even if that doesn’t happen and the results don’t materially improve from here, Cisco said it’s still confident in its ability to deliver on its fiscal Q2 and full year 2026 outlook. The Collaboration and Observability units saw revenue drop 3% and rise 6%, respectively, with Collaboration missing estimates and Observability matching expectations. Services revenue increased 2% year over year to $3.81 billion, slightly beating estimates. As always, we appreciate Cisco’s consistent approach to returning cash to shareholders. The company repurchased $2 billion worth of shares in the quarter at an average price of $68.28. That looks like a great trade since the stock is knocking on the door of $80 in after-hours trading. It has $12.2 billion remaining under its authorization. Cisco stock, as of Wednesday’s closing price, has a 2.2% annual dividend yield. Guidance Cisco expects fiscal 2026 second-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $15.2 billion, which is well above the consensus estimate of $14.62 billion. It also sees non-GAAP EPS of $1.01 to $1.03 cents, which is nicely above the consensus estimate of 98 cents. For full year 2026, Cisco now expects revenue of $60.2 billion to $61 billion, which is about a $1 billion increase from the prior outlook of $59 billion to $60 billion. This revised outlook exceeds the consensus estimate of $59.64 billion. On the bottom line, management raised its EPS forecast to $4.08 to $4.14 from its prior outlook of $4.00 to $4.06. This new midpoint of $4.11 is better than the consensus analyst estimate by 7 cents. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CSCO, NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Nov. 12, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
The divergence between the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday stateside reinforces the suggestion that there are two markets operating in the U.S.: one of an artificial intelligence and another of “everything else.”
Not only did the Dow rise, it also secured its second consecutive record high and closed above the 48,000 level for the first time.
The index, which comprises 30 blue-chip companies, is typically seen as a marker of the “old economy.” That is to say, it is mostly made up of large, well-established companies driving the U.S. economy, such as banks, healthcare and industrials, before Silicon Valley became a minisun powering everything.
To be sure, new and flashy names, such as Nvidia and Salesforce, constitute the Dow too. But as the index is price-weighted, meaning that companies with higher share prices influence the Dow more, tech companies don’t exert as much gravity on it.
That’s in contrast to the Nasdaq, which is weighted by companies’ market capitalization, and dominated mainly by technology firms. The tech-heavy index fell as shares like Oracle and Palantir slipped — even Advanced Micro Devices’ 9% pop on its growth prospects couldn’t rescue the Nasdaq from the red.
It’s not necessarily a warning sign about overexuberance in AI.
“There’s nothing wrong, in our view, of kind of trimming back, taking some gains and re-diversifying across other spots in the equity markets,” said Josh Chastant, portfolio manager of public investments at GuideStone Fund.
But what investors would really like is if fork in the road merges into one. That tends to be the safer path to take.
Anthropic to spend $50 billion on U.S. AI infrastructure. Custom data centers will be first built in Texas and New York and go live in 2026, with more locations to follow. The facilities will be developed with Fluidstack, an AI cloud platform.
U.S.October jobs and inflation data might not be released. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that part of the fallout of the government closure could be lasting damage to the government’s data collection ability. But analysts think otherwise.
U.S. House of Representatives heading toward a vote. The House on Wednesday night stateside cleared a procedural hurdle required before the vote could begin on a bill that would end the government shutdown. Voting is expected to happen as of publication time.
[PRO] This U.S. mining stock is a top play: CIO. U.K. fundBlue Whale Capital’s Stephen Yiu said macroeconomic concerns, such as the U.S. fiscal deficit and the weakness of the dollar, could support the stock.
And finally…
People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 18, 2024 in New York City.
Private equity firms are facing a new reality: a growing crop of companies that can neither thrive nor die, lingering in portfolios like the undead.
These so-called “zombie companies” refer to businesses that aren’t growing, barely generate enough cash to service debt and are unable to attract buyers even at a discount. They are usually trapped on a fund’s balance sheet beyond its expected holding period.
Jason Kim, chief executive officer of Firefly Aerospace, center, during the company’s initial public offering at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Firefly Aerospace‘s stock surged 15% on Wednesday after the space technology company issued better-than-expected third-quarter results and lifted its guidance.
Revenues in the third quarter jumped nearly 38% to $30.8 million from $22.4 million in the year-ago period and nearly doubled from the previous quarter.
Firefly’s net loss totaled $140.4 million, or $1.50 per share. The company said net loss included costs tied to its IPO, foreign exchange and executive severance
The company also lifted its outlook for the year, saying it now expects revenues to range between $150 million and $158 million. That’s up from previous guidance in the range of $133 million and $145 million.
This is Firefly’s second quarterly report as a public company. Last quarter, shares slumped after it posted a bigger loss and lower revenues than analysts were expecting.
The Cedar Park, Texas, company went public on the Nasdaq in August during a period of heightened enthusiasm toward space technology. The U.S. government and NASA have leaned on more contracts with companies like Firefly and Elon Musk‘s SpaceX to support moon missions.
But shares of Firefly have lost 70% of their value since their opening day close, and the company’s market capitalization has plummeted from about $8.5 billion to about $2.7 billion on Wednesday.
In September, Firefly shares sank after a rocket exploded during a ground test at the company’s Texas facility, days after receiving clearance from the Federal Aviation Administration over a separate incident. Firefly has since put “corrective measures” in place, the company said on Wednesday. Shares dropped 35% in September and are down 24% this month.
