Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
Grace Cary | Moment | Getty Images
Inflation continued to throttle back in August, signaling that the fast-rising prices that plagued the U.S. economy for the better part of the three years during the pandemic era are increasingly shifting into the rearview mirror.
Overall inflationary pressures are “dissipating,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.
The consumer price index — which measures how fast prices are changing across the U.S. economy — rose 2.5% in August from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday.
That figure is down from 2.9% in July and is the lowest reading since February 2021.
There are still some pockets of potential concern, however, with housing perhaps the most troubling among them, economists said. But prices for staples like groceries and gasoline have normalized and the inflationary trend appears firmly to the downside, they said.
“We’d expect inflation to continue to subside,” though with “some ups and downs” in the data from month to month, House said.
‘Tamed’ but not ‘vanquished’
The August inflation reading is down significantly from the 9.1% pandemic-era peak in mid-2022, which was the highest level since 1981.
It’s also nearing policymakers’ long-term target of around 2%.
“Overall, inflation appears to have been successfully tamed but, with housing inflation still refusing to moderate as quickly as hoped, it hasn’t been completely vanquished,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday morning.
With that in mind, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates this month as its focus shifts from tackling inflation to averting recession in the face of a cooling job market.
The central bank raised rates to their highest level in 23 years during the pandemic era, pushing up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in a bid to tame inflation.
Both House and Ashworth expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its upcoming policy meeting next week.
Housing inflation is falling but still high
Inflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, while Americans spent more on their homes and less on services such as dining out and entertainment. Supply shortages coincided with higher consumer demand.
Services inflation — which is generally more sensitive to labor costs — also jumped, partly influenced by a historically hot labor market as employers clamored for workers when the economy reopened, economists said.
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Housing, which is counted in the “services” category, has been a big impediment to overall inflation falling to the Fed’s target, economists said.
Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings.
The shelter index has risen 5.2% since August 2023, accounting for more than 70% of the annual increase in the “core” CPI, the BLS said Wednesday. (The core CPI is economists’ preferred gauge of inflation trends. It strips out food and energy costs, which can be volatile.)
Housing inflation moves up and down at glacial speed due to how the government measures it, economists said.
Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. Average rents actually deflated (meaning prices actually fell) by 1% in the second quarter of 2024 versus a year earlier, according to the BLS New Tenant Rent Index.
However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August.
“It’s puzzling, in all honesty,” House said. “[But] I’m of the view that we should continue to see shelter decelerate” given broader trends in the rental market.
Other ‘notable’ categories
More broadly, other categories with “notable increases” over the past year include motor vehicle insurance (prices are up 16.5% from August 2023), medical care (up 3%), recreation (up 1.6%) and education (3.1%), the BLS said.
A surge in new and used car prices a few years ago is likely now fueling high inflation for car insurance premiums and vehicle repair, since it generally costs more to insure and repair pricier cars, economists said.
Insurance inflation should ultimately fade alongside falling car prices, they said. New vehicle prices are down about 1% over the past year, and those for used cars and trucks have declined more than 10%.
Egg prices — which had surged in 2022 due to a historic outbreak of bird flu — are rising again following a reemergence of the deadly disease. They’re up 28% from a year ago.
Overall annual grocery inflation was less than 1% in August, down from an average 11.4% in 2022, which was the highest since 1979.
Gasoline prices are also down about 10% over the past year.
EV charging veteran ChargePoint has unveiled its new charger product architecture, which is described as a “generational leap in AC Level 2 charging.” The new ChargePoint technology designed for consumers in North America and Europe will enable vehicle-to-everything (V2X) capabilities and the ability to charge your EV in as quickly as four hours.
ChargePoint is not only a seasoned contributor to EV infrastructure but has established itself as an innovative leader in the growing segment. In recent years, it has expanded and implemented new technologies to help simplify the overall process for its customers. In 2024, the network reached one million global charging ports and has added exciting features to support those stations.
Last summer, the network introduced a new “Omni Port,” combining multiple charging plugs into one port. It ensures EV drivers of nearly any make and model can charge at any ChargePoint space. The company also began implementing AI to bolster dependability within its charging network by identifying issues more quickly, improving uptime, and thus delivering better charging network reliability.
As we’ve pointed out, ChargePoint continues to utilize its resources to develop and implement innovative solutions to genuine problems many EV drivers face regularly, such as vandalism and theft. We’ve also seen ChargePoint implement new charger technology to make the process more affordable for fleets.
Today, ChargePoint has introduced a new charger architecture that promises to bring advanced features and higher charging rates to all its customers across residential, commercial, and fleet applications.
ChargePoint unveils maximum speed V2X charger tech
This morning, ChargePoint unveiled its next generation of EV charger architecture, complete with bidirectional capabilities and speeds up to double those of most current AC Level 2 chargers.
As mentioned above, this new architecture will serve as the backbone of new ChargePoint chargers across all segments, including residential, commercial, and fleet customers. Hossein Kazemi, chief technical officer of hardware at ChargePoint, elaborated:
ChargePoint’s next generation of EV chargers will be revolutionary, not evolutionary. The architecture underpinning them enables highly anticipated technologies which will deliver a significantly better experience for station owners and the EV drivers who charge with them.
The new ChargePoint chargers will feature V2X capabilities, enabling residential and commercial customers to use EVs to power homes and buildings with the opportunity to send excess energy back to the local grid. Dynamic load balancing can automatically boost charging speeds when power is not required at other parts of the connected building structure, enabling efficiency and faster recharge rates.
ChargePoint shared that its new charger architecture can achieve the fastest possible speed for AC current (80 amps/19.2 kW), charging the average EV from 0 to 100% in just four hours. That’s nearly double the current AC Level 2 standard (no pun intended).
Other features include smart home capabilities where residential or commercial owners can implement the charger within a more extensive energy storage system, including solar panels, power banks, and smart energy management systems. The new architecture also enables series-wiring capabilities, meaning fleet depots, multi-unit dwellings, or even residential homes with multiple EVs can maximize charging rates without upgrading their wiring configuration or energy service plan.
These new chargers will also feature ChargePoint’s Omni Port technology, enabling a wider range of compatibility across all EV makes and models. According to ChargePoint, this new architecture complies with MID and Eichrecht regulations in Europe and ENERGY STAR in the US.
The first charger models on the platform are expected to hit Europe this summer followed by North
America by the end of 2025.
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Environment
Tanking oil prices could more than double Saudi Arabia’s deficit to $75 billion and threaten spending plans: Goldman Sachs economist
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Johnnygreig | E+ | Getty Images
Crashing oil prices triggered by waning demand, global trade war fears and growing crude supply could more than double Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit, a Goldman Sachs economist warned.
The bank’s outlook spotlighted the pressure on the kingdom to make changes to its mammoth spending plans and fiscal measures.
“The deficits on the fiscal side that we’re likely to see in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries, especially big countries like Saudi Arabia, are going to be pretty significant,” Farouk Soussa, Middle East and North Africa economist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s Access Middle East on Wednesday.
Spending by the kingdom has ballooned due to Vision 2030, a sweeping campaign to transform the Saudi economy and diversify its revenue streams away from hydrocarbons. A centerpiece of the project is Neom, an as-yet sparsely populated mega-region in the desert roughly the size of Massachusetts.
Plans for Neom include hyper-futuristic developments that altogether have been estimated to cost as much as $1.5 trillion. The kingdom is also hosting the 2034 World Cup and the 2030 World Expo, both infamously costly endeavors.
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its year-end 2025 oil price forecast to $62 a barrel for Brent crude, down from a previous forecast of $69 — a figure that the bank’s economists say could more than double Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget deficit of $30.8 billion.
“In Saudi Arabia, we estimate that we’re probably going to see the deficit go up from around $30 to $35 billion to around $70 to $75 billion, if oil prices stayed around $62 this year,” Soussa said.
“That means more borrowing, probably means more cutbacks on expenditure, it probably means more selling of assets, all of the above, and this is going to have an impact both on domestic financial conditions and potentially even international.”
Financing that level of deficit in international markets “is going to be challenging” given the shakiness of international markets right now, he added, and likely means Riyadh will need to look at other options to bridge their funding gap.
The kingdom still has significant headroom to borrow; their debt-to-GDP ratio as of December 2024 is just under 30%. In comparison, the U.S. and France’s debt-to-GDP ratios of 124% and 110.6%, respectively. But $75 billion in debt issuance would be difficult for the market to absorb, Soussa noted.
“That debt to GDP ratio, while comforting, doesn’t mean that the Saudis can issue as much debt as they like … they do have to look at other remedies,” he said, adding that those remedies include cutting back on capital expenditure, raising taxes, or selling more of their domestic assets — like state-owned companies Saudi Aramco and Sabic. Several Neom projects may end up on the chopping block, regional economists predict.
Saudi Arabia has an A/A-1 credit rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings and an A+ rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. That combined with high foreign currency reserves — $410.2 billion as of January, according to CEIC data — puts the kingdom in a comfortable place to manage a deficit.
The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams, which S&P Global said in September “will continue to improve Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and wealth.”
“So the Saudis have lots of options, the mix of all of these is very difficult to pre-judge, but certainly we’re not looking at some sort of crisis,” Soussa said. “It’s just a question of which options they go for in order to deal with the challenges that they’re facing.”
Global benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.58 per barrel on Thursday at 9:30 a.m. in London, down roughly 14% year-to-date.
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