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There was no growth in the UK economy in July, official figures show.

It’s the second month of stagnation, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said as GDP – the measure of everything produced in the UK – flatlined in the weeks following the election of the Labour government.

The flatline was not expected by economists, who had anticipated growth.

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Economists polled by the Reuters news agency forecast the economy would expand by 0.2%.

Some signs of growth

But there’s “longer-term strength” in the services sector meaning there was growth over the last three months as a whole and 0.5% expansion in the three months up to July.

Among the G7 group of industrialised nations, the UK had the highest growth rate for the first six months of 2024.

Why stagnation?

While there was growth in the services sector, led by computer programmers and the end of strikes in health, these gains were offset by falls for advertising companies, architects and engineers.

Manufacturing output fell overall due to “a particularly poor month for car and machinery firms”, the ONS said, while construction also declined.

What will it mean for interest rates?

Market expectations are for interest rates to remain unchanged by the Bank of England when they meet next week to consider their next move in the fight against inflation.

The central bank had raised the rate and made borrowing more expensive to reduce inflation.

A cut in November, at the next meeting of rate-setters, is expected. Rates are forecast to be brought down to 4.75% at that point.

Political reaction

In response to the figures Chancellor Rachel Reeves said:

“I am under no illusion about the scale of the challenge we face and I will be honest with the British people that change will not happen overnight. Two-quarters of positive economic growth does not make up for 14 years of stagnation.

“That is why we are taking the long-term decisions now to fix the foundations of our economy.”

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WH Smith buyer ‘faces 12-month ban’ on mass shop closures

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WH Smith buyer 'faces 12-month ban' on mass shop closures

The new owner of WH Smith’s high street chain has effectively been barred from launching a wave of mass store closures for at least 12 months amid plans for rapid restructurings at two other retailers it owns.

Sky News has learnt that WH Smith would have the right to cancel a year-long transitional services agreement (TSA) put in place with Modella Capital – which struck a deal to acquire the business in March – if it launched a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) before the first anniversary of the transaction’s completion.

The clause in the TSA, which enables Modella Capital to continue using WH Smith’s systems after it takes ownership, is significant, according to retail insiders.

WH Smith agreed to sell its 480 high street shops to Modella in a £76m deal, ending 233 years of high street history.

Modella plans to rebrand the chain under the name TG Jones after it takes control.

In recent weeks, Sky News has revealed plans drawn up by Modella to launch CVAs at both Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, which it has owned for nine and three months respectively.

Both of those restructuring processes have put significant numbers of stores at risk, and industry executives say that, over time, a sizeable part of the WH Smith high street estate could also be at risk.

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A spokesman for Modella said: “We have a number of exciting plans for the future of TGJones.

“A CVA is not on the agenda, as it is a solvent business.”

WH Smith, which will become a pure-play travel retailer once the Modella deal completes, declined to comment further ahead of the completion of the sale.

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

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In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

Aston Martin is steering a path towards a twin-pronged pay row with shareholders as it grapples with the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on car manufacturers.

Sky News can reveal that the influential proxy voting adviser ISS is urging investors to vote against both of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ remuneration votes at next week’s annual general meeting.

The pay policy vote, which is binding on the company, has attracted opposition from ISS because it proposes significant increases to potential bonus awards to Adrian Hallmark, the company’s new chief executive.

“Concerns are raised regarding the increased bonus maximums, which are built upon competitively[1]positioned salary levels and do not appear appropriate given the company’s recent performance,” ISS said in a report to clients.

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Aston Martin is also facing a meaningful vote against its pay report for last year – which is on an advisory basis only – because of the salaries awarded to Mr Hallmark and other executive directors.

The company’s shares have nearly halved in the last year, and it now has a market value of little more than £660m.

Despite the ISS recommendation, Aston Martin will win the vote by virtue of chairman Lawrence Stroll’s 33% shareholding.

The luxury car manufacturer has had a torrid time as a public company and now faces the headwinds of President Trump’s tariffs blitz.

This week it said it would limit exports to the US to offset the impact of the policy.

Aston Martin did not respond to a request for comment ahead of next Wednesday’s AGM.

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