Here’s the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
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Inflation cooled in August and fell to its lowest level since February 2021, which was around the time the consumer price index began to climb during the pandemic era.
This broad trend in the U.S. economy — a declining but still-positive rate of inflation — is known as “disinflation.” It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly.
However, there are also pockets of “deflation.” Their inflation rate is negative, meaning prices are falling.
Deflation has largely been happening for physical goods such as cars and household appliances, though it has also appeared in categories such as gasoline and various groceries over the past year, according to the consumer price index.
That said, consumers shouldn’t expect — or root for — a broad and sustained fall in prices across the U.S. economy. That generally doesn’t happen unless there’s a recession, economists said.
‘A huge shift in demand’
Prices for “core” goods — commodities excluding those related to food and energy — have deflated by about 2% since August 2023, on average, according to CPI data.
They fell 0.2% during the month, from July to August 2024.
The dynamic of falling goods prices has largely been due to a “normalization” of supply-and-demand trends that were thrown out of whack during the pandemic, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Demand for physical goods soared in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things such as concerts, travel or dining out. Households also had more discretionary income due to the pullback on spending coupled with federal aid.
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“We saw a huge shift in demand, in terms of the type of things people were spending on, where you weren’t going out as much,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.
The pandemic also snarled global supply chains, meaning goods weren’t hitting the shelves as quickly as consumers wanted them.
Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices.
However, those economic contortions have largely eased and prices have deflated as a result, economists said.
Where prices have deflated
For example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data.
They’ve also fallen for tools, hardware and outdoor equipment, which are down 3%, toys, down 3%, and apparel, such as men’s suits and outerwear, down 10%, women’s outerwear, down 9%, and footwear, down 1%.
Prices for new and used vehicles have fallen by 1% and 10%, respectively, since August 2023. Car and truck rental prices have deflated about 8%.
Car prices were among the first to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.
Recent declines in car prices are largely due to “the inventory picture being more improved in the overall vehicle space,” House said. Higher financing costs have also reduced consumer demand, economists said.
Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import items from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.
Long-term forces such as globalization have also helped, by increasing imports of more lower-priced goods from China, economists said.
Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data.
The drop is partly attributable to a decline in jet fuel prices, Capital Economics’ Brown said.
Average aviation jet fuel prices are down about 21% from last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data. Each grocery item has its own supply-and-demand dynamics that can influence pricing, economists said.
Other categories’ deflationary dynamics may be happening only on paper.
For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.
That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.
Environment
U.S. crude oil falls below $60 a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025.
Pavel Mikheyev | Reuters
U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession.
Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.
Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.
Oil futures, 5 years
The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan. The firm on Thursday raised its odds of a recession this year to 60% following the tariff rollout, up from 40%.
Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.
Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.
Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)
What’s going on in Illinois?
While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.
At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).
We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.
SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.
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The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.
Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.
XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.
We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).
XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?
Easy in, easy out
The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.
You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.
SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.
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