Why credit card fraud alerts are rising, and how worried you should be about them
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It’s a scenario most people have encountered: you try to make a big or unexpected purchase on your credit card, and, at the moment you need it the most, the card gets declined.
Sometimes, it’s as simple as confirming the purchase via text message, and you can quickly complete the transaction. Other times, it’s a days-long process that involves confirmation codes, mailed letters and waiting on hold with the card company to validate that it was indeed you who wanted to buy the product.
The rate of fraud alerts is “absolutely” going up, according to Deloitte U.S. risk & financial advisory principal Satish Lalchand.
It can’t be ignored, because many of the alerts are not false alarms.
About 60% of credit card holders in 2023 experienced some sort of attempted fraud, according to Experian.
“Fraud in general across all channels, whether it’s check fraud, credit card fraud payments, the peer-to-peer payments, everything, is significantly increasing at a very rapid pace,” Lalchand said.
Global card losses attributed to fraud reached $33 billion in 2022, according to payments industry research company Nilson Report, with the U.S. market representing roughly 40% of losses. It has forecast a persistent threat that could reach nearly $400 billion in card fraud in the decade to 2032.
AI is part of the problem, but it is also part of the solution at companies including Visa.
“What’s driving a lot of this type of fraud, is the fraudsters themselves are using AI in general,” Lalchand said. “So, they are able to now move much faster.”
In the past, cybercriminals could open five to ten accounts a day. Now, it’s hundreds, if not thousands of accounts, thanks to advancements in artificial intelligence.
But at the same time AI is helping to detect potentially problematic transactions, with the downside of many cases turning out to be false alarms.
“When we come down to credit cards, financial institutions are investing more in the concept of fraud and fraud modernization, replacing older technology and having better fraud detection capabilities, and retuning their alerts,” Lalchand said. “That’s also causing a lot more on the detection side to go up.”
More personal data is being stolen
Michael Bruemmer, Experian vice president and head of its global data breach resolution and consumer protection division, says a lot more fraud is being done in other ways than stealing your credit card number, using other portions of your financial background, identity background, social security number.
Just in the past five months, there have been four major data breaches including Ticketmaster, Change Healthcare, AT&T and National Public Data. More data breaches can lead to more scrutiny and more preemptive alert protocols, although they are often not the main reason for alerts, according to Experian.
There is some good news. Overall, the rate of false purchases on credit cards is actually decreasing, according to Experian. There have been 416,582 cases of credit card fraud that have been perpetrated in 2024. It’s down 5.4% versus 2023.
AI’s ability to detect patterns based on previous behavior has helped. While you may still get credit card blocks on purchases that seem out of the ordinary, technology has improved fraud alerts in other ways. MasterCard said it’s observed on average a 20% increase in its ability to detect fraud thanks to AI, and up to 300% increase in its ability to detect fraud without more false alerts. Mastercard declined to provide statistics on the absolute level of fraud and overall accuracy of fraud detection.
On Thursday, Mastercard announced the acquisition of payment fraud company Recorded Future, which it already partners with to help identify cards that have been compromised.
“We’ve come such a long way to actually reduce the friction out there,” said Johan Gerber, Mastercard executive vice president and head of security solutions.
Take for example, travel plans and making purchases in a foreign country. Before, people would have to call the credit card company. Now, card companies automatically note vacations and travel patterns based on past purchase behavior. Technology has also made it faster to identify and clear flagged fraud alerts if it is indeed a false alarm. Instead of having to call and wait on hold, in many cases verification can be done in a matter of minutes through authorized related accounts or through information only the individual cardholder would know.
Tips to cut down on unnecessary alerts
Today, some scenarios will raise concerns within current security parameters. Experian notes that while data breaches may turn up the dial on fraud alerts, it’s actually changes in shopping patterns that are guaranteed to set off red flags. If you’re buying something at a new store or purchasing a big ticket item that you don’t usually buy, that’s typically something that will be noted. MasterCard also said trying multiple transactions quickly in a row will always alert their systems. So, you can expect these will usually garner some sort of temporary block.
“It’s a balance,” Gerber said. “Do I want to be inconvenienced? Do you potentially want a transaction that [MasterCard] may get wrong because [we] declined you? Or do I want to sit on the other side of the loss of trust in that [we] actually did let a transaction through and you should have known it’s not me.”
Other things you can do to ensure that you get mostly accurate fraud alerts is to sign up for monitoring services and personally set limit alerts on your accounts. Most institutions will let you place monetary limits on when you can get notified about big transactions. Freezing your credit file, using a password manager and using two-factor authentication for your financial accounts with a biometric passcode can also be beneficial.
“Try to shop on regular, reputable shopping sites, and if you’re going to use a credit card, have a low-level limit credit card that’s only used for those shopping sites,” Bruemmer said. “I would also recommend using a tap-to-pay or a mobile app and then make sure you’re not shopping on a public Wi-Fi network.”
And, even if the alerts may be annoying, never ignore them. Even though it may seem like you get notice of a data breach every day, it doesn’t mean you won’t eventually be affected.
“Consumers should pay attention to all of this, because it’s just a matter of time … they will be impacted,” Lachland said.
Credit card fraud resources
Source: CNBC Select
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and C.C. Wei, chief executive officer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (left), shake hands during an announcement of an additional $100 billion into TSMC’s U.S. manufacturing at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., on March 3, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The latest version of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” could make it cheaper for semiconductor manufacturers to build plants in the U.S. as Washington continues its efforts to strengthen its domestic chip supply chain.
Under the bill, passed by the Senate Tuesday, tax credits for those semiconductor firms would rise to 35% from 25%. That’s more than the 30% increase that had made it into a draft version of the bill.
Companies eligible for the credits could include chipmakers such as Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Micron Technology, provided that they expand their advanced manufacturing in the U.S. ahead of a 2026 deadline.
The new provisions expand on tax incentives under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which provided grants of $39 billion and loans of $75 billion for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing projects.
But before the expanded credits come into play, Trump’s sweeping domestic policy package will have to be passed again in the House, which narrowly passed its own version last month. The president has urged lawmakers to get the bill passed by July 4.
Trump versus Biden
Since Trump’s first term, Washington has been trying to onshore more of the advanced semiconductor supply chain from Asia, support its domestic players and limit China’s capabilities.
Although tax provisions in Trump’s sweeping policy bill expand on those in the Biden administration’s CHIPS Act, his overall approach to the semiconductor industry has been different.
Earlier this year, the president even called for a repeal of the CHIPS Act, though Republican lawmakers have been reluctant to act on that front. Still, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last month that the administration was renegotiating some of the Biden administration’s grants.
Trump has previously stated that tariffs, as opposed to the CHIPS Act grants, would be the best method of onshoring semiconductor production. The Trump administration is currently conducting an investigation into imports of semiconductor technology, which could result in new duties on the industry.
In recent months, a number of chipmakers with projects in the U.S. have ramped up planned investments there. That includes the world’s largest contract chipmaker, TSMC, as well as American chip companies such as Nvidia, Micron and GlobalFoundries.
According to Daniel Newman, CEO at tech advisory firm Futurum Group, the threat of Trump’s tariffs has created more urgency for semiconductor companies to expand U.S. capacity. If the increased investment tax credits come into law, those onshoring efforts are only expected to accelerate, he told CNBC.
“Given the risk of tariffs, increasing manufacturing in the U.S. remains a key consideration for these large semiconductor companies,” Newman said, adding that the tax credits could be seen as an opportunity to offset certain costs related to U.S.-based projects.
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president, not pictured, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, May 21, 2025.
Jim Lo Scalzo | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tesla shares have dropped 7% from Friday’s closing price of $323.63 to the $300.71 close on Tuesday ahead of the company’s second-quarter deliveries report.
Wall Street analysts are expecting Tesla to report deliveries of around 387,000 — a 13% decline compared to deliveries of nearly 444,000 a year ago, according to a consensus compiled by FactSet. Prediction market Kalshi told CNBC on Tuesday that its traders forecast deliveries of around 364,000.
Shares in the electric vehicle maker had been rising after Tesla started a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in late June and CEO Elon Musk boasted of its first “driverless delivery” of a car to a customer there.
The stock price took a turn after Musk on Saturday reignited a feud with President Donald Trump over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the massive spending bill that the commander-in-chief endorsed. The bill is now heading for a final vote in the House.
That legislation would benefit higher-income households in the U.S. while slashing spending on programs such as Medicaid and food assistance.
Musk did not object to cuts to those specific programs. However, Musk on X said the bill would worsen the U.S. deficit and raise the debt ceiling. The bill includes tax cuts that would add around $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.
The Tesla CEO has also criticized aspects of the bill that would cut hundreds of billions of dollars in support for renewable energy development in the U.S. and phase out tax credits for electric vehicles.
Such changes could hurt Tesla as they are expected to lower EV sales by roughly 100,000 vehicles per year by 2035, according to think tank Energy Innovation.
The bill is also expected to reduce renewable energy development by more than 350 cumulative gigawatts in that same time period, according to Energy Innovation. That could pressure Tesla’s Energy division, which sells solar and battery energy storage systems to utilities and other clean energy project developers.
Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that Musk was, “upset that he’s losing his EV mandate,” but that the tech CEO could “lose a lot more than that.” Trump was alluding to the subsidies, incentives and contracts that Musk’s many businesses have relied on.
SpaceX has received over $22 billion from work with the federal government since 2008, according to FedScout, which does federal spending and government contract research. That includes contracts from NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Space Force, among others.
Tesla has reported $11.8 billion in sales of “automotive regulatory credits,” or environmental credits, since 2015, according to an evaluation of the EV maker’s financial filings by Geoff Orazem, CEO of FedScout.
These incentives are largely derived from federal and state regulations in the U.S. that require automakers to sell some number of low-emission vehicles or buy credits from companies like Tesla, which often have an excess.
Regulatory credit sales go straight to Tesla’s bottom line. Credit revenue amounted to approximately 60% of Tesla’s net income in the second quarter of 2024.
WATCH: Threats to SpaceX & Tesla as Musk, Trump feud heats up
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