There are now more electric cars than gas cars on Norway’s roads
Sometime this month, Norway will have more electric cars on its roads than petrol-only vehicles, according to an analysis of Norwegian government data.
The analysis comes courtesy of Bilbransje24, a Norwegian auto industry publication. It used data from Norway’s Road Traffic Information Council (Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken, OFV).
Norway releases detailed monthly information about auto sales in the country, which has been helpful for those of us tracking the EV market in the most EV-obsessed country in the world. It set another world record with 94% EV new car market share in August.
Norway has long been a standout, with the highest level of EV market share of any country and an aspiration to end sales of new gas cars by 2025, while other countries and regions focus on a relatively weak 2035 target.
But it even managed to basically meet that 2025 aspiration early, with non-electrified vehicles only making up a single-digit percentage of sales in the country as early as 2021. Some countries even abruptly stopped ICE vehicle sales with only a few days notice as sales continued to drop.
As is the case with most technologies, the last few percent is always a struggle, but we think getting down to single digits might as well be a win (for reference, California’s 2035 “ban” on gas cars still allows up to 20% of vehicle sales to be PHEVs, which do have a combustion engine in them).
And the combined effect of so many years of extremely high EV sales, and extremely low gas-car sales, means that we’ve seen the installed base of gas vehicles shrink as the installed base of EVs continues to rise. And now, finally, those lines have crossed.
There are more electric cars than petrol-only cars on Norway’s roads (as of… today?)
As of the end of last month, there were 751,450 electric cars in service in Norway and 755,244 petrol-only cars, each making up about 26% of the cars on the roads.
Given that EVs are selling at a rate of about ~10,000 vehicles per month, and petrol-only cars are selling at a rate of about…. zero (okay, maybe a few hundred) per month, that means these lines will cross around the middle of this month. So… just about now.
This does leave out one powertrain type though, diesel, which was quite popular in Norway throughout the 2000s and early 2010s. Diesel’s installed-based crossed that of petrol-only vehicles in late 2014, and they have remained the most common vehicles on Norwegian roads since then. There are just over a million diesel vehicles in Norway (that number will drop below a million at the end of this month), so diesel-only still reigns supreme on Norwegian roads, ahead of EVs.
But EVs are growing, and growing more rapidly than diesel ever did. And both petrol-only – which EVs just advanced ahead of – and diesel-only vehicles are dropping in popularity. “Peak diesel” was reached in 2017, though today they make up 35% of Norway’s cars. Peak petrol-car sales were reached in Norway in 2005.
Each of these numbers leave out hybrids, which make up a smaller amount, both plug-in and otherwise. There are around 208k plug-in hybrids and 156k non-plug-in hybrids on the roads in Norway now. The installed base of plug-in hybrids became larger than that of non-plug-in ones back in 2019.
And the installed-base of diesel and petrol vehicles don’t get driven as often as newer, more efficient EVs do, so the disparate travel distances have resulted in an outsized effect on motor fuel sales in the country. Last year, Electrek did an analysis of how Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil.
See more: graphs and charts at Bilbransje24’s article
Electrek’s Take
As usual, Norway is showing the rest of the world how this should all work.
Meanwhile, most countries aren’t even close to having new EV sales eclipse new gas car sales, and Norway is already out here with more EVs on the road than gas cars.
For all the complaints and protestations of impossibility, the Nordic countries have by and large left gas behind. All have high EV penetration, led by Norway, and there have not been any of the widespread problems that fossil fuel propaganda constantly tries to convince you that high EV use would lead to.
Maybe instead of listening to ignorant clowns who are committed to increasing harm and costs, we should just take a look at how one of the happiest nations in the world has transformed its transportation system for the better, and take a few notes.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
Read more: FREYR kills plans to build a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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Environment
Podcast: how Elon killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surge, and Chinese EVs keep killing it
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how Elon Musk killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surging, how Chinese EVs keep killing it, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
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