For years, Amazon has set the bar for package delivery. When Prime launched in 2005, two-day shipping was unheard of. By 2019, one-day shipping was standard for millions of items. Now, the retail giant is turning to generative AI to drive more same-day shipping.
Amazon is using the technology to optimize delivery routes, make more intelligent warehouse robots, create more-ergonomic environments for employees and better predict where to stock new items, said Steve Armato, Amazon’s vice president of transportation technology and services.
During an exclusive tour of Amazon’s largest California sort center, located in Tracy, Armato told CNBC that 60% of Prime orders in March were delivered the same day or next day in the top 60 metropolitan areas in the U.S. Amazon is betting on generative AI to increase that figure.
“It seems subtle, but at this scale, getting just one more product in the right spot means that it’s shipping less distance when you order it,” Armato said in an interview at the warehouse.
In 2020, Amazon began developing models for demand forecasting and supply chain optimization using transformer architecture, the backbones of what we know today as generative AI.
“Generative AI is the next big evolution in technology,” Armato said. “It’s remarkable, and we’re already applying it in very practical ways across our operations.”
But not all the changes that generative AI may bring to the e-commerce giant are positive. There are concerns about the high-energy needs of generative AI and about its ability to enable robots to replace Amazon’s human workforce, analysts told CNBC.
Robots and new roles
The number of Amazon warehouse robots grew from 350,000 in 2021 to more than 750,000 in 2023, according to the company.
Amazon began adding AI transformer models to its warehouse delivery robots in 2022 so the machines can dash around each other more intelligently. CNBC watched hundreds of them move in a coordinated grid in the warehouse. Armato calls this “the dance floor.”
“Some of the two-day deliveries might stand aside, let the robot with a next-day delivery go on its mission first and take a straight line to its destination,” Armato said.
Hundreds of robots dash around each other with the help of generative AI at Amazon’s largest California sort center in Tracy, California, July 31, 2024.
Lisa Setyon
While these robots navigate using a series of QR codes, Amazon’s next generation of drive units, called Proteus, are fully autonomous, the company said.
“They’re using generative AI and computer vision to avoid obstacles and find the right place to stop,” Armato said.
As part of the company’s AI strategy, Amazon in August struck a deal with AI startup Covariant. Amazon hired the startup’s founders and licensed its models that help robots handle a wider range of physical objects. Amazon is also developing a bipedal robot called Digit that can grasp and handle items in a humanoid way.
CNBC saw a row of 20 robotic “Robin” arms that use computer vision to determine how much pressure to use when picking up various package shapes and sizes. Amazon said generative AI teaches the arms how to handle products they’ve never seen before based on data from similar products in Amazon’s vast catalog.
A similar model is used to better assess damaged items and keep them from shipping out. Amazon’s AI is three times better at identifying damaged products than humans are, the company said.
Introducing more robotics with generative AI without replacing human workers is a balancing act for Amazon, said Tom Forte, senior equity analyst at the Maxim Group.
“How can they implement automation to improve efficiency and manage labor expenses, but how can they do it in a way that complements their use of humans and doesn’t replace them?” Forte said.
Rather than replacing workers, the robots are reducing the burden on employees and creating new roles, Armato said. Amazon said it plans to spend $1.2 billion to upskill more than 300,000 employees by the end of 2025 as generative AI and robotics change the company’s processes.
“Someone needs to maintain [the robot] if it breaks down,” Armato said. “Or if something does get dropped on the dance floor, we have a process and special training to go clean that up. And so each of those creates new categories of jobs, some of which have higher earnings potential.”
Many of Amazon’s robots move tall bins of items to workstations where employees pick and pack them, which reduces how much humans have to walk, Armato said. AI is also reducing the need for workers to reach and bend, he said.
“One algorithmic improvement is to take our faster-selling products and place those on the shelves at waist height,” Armato said. “That’s your ergonomic power zone.”
Robotic drive units bring tall stacks of items to workstations for picking and packing at an Amazon same-day center in Richmond, California, Aug. 31, 2024.
Katie Tarasov
Predicting orders and routes
With all those robots and workers, Amazon delivered more than 2 billion items the same day or next day in the first quarter of 2024, according to the company.
Amazon has always used algorithms to predict how much of what inventory is needed, when and where. The company said it’s using generative AI to predict where best to place items it hasn’t previously sold.
“When we place a product in the right place ahead of time, before you click buy, it’s traveling less distance, which is a win for speed and sustainability,” Armato said.
Amazon Web Services has data centers filled with servers running AI workloads that give the company an edge over its retail rivals because it can train its AI in-house. As an early online-only retailer, Amazon got a head start on collecting mass aggregate data on shopping behavior and delivery logistics. Amazon is now using that trove of data to create AI models for use in everything from supply chain optimization to warehouse robotics, according to the company.
“It’s not that Walmart and Target and Costco and others don’t have their own reams of data, but they’re looking at things a little bit differently, and they have much older systems,” said Sucharita Kodali, retail analyst at Forrester Research.
How eco-friendly generative AI will be in the long run is unclear. That’s because training and running generative AI is a carbon-intensive process, and by 2027, AI servers worldwide are projected to use as much power every year as Sweden or the Netherlands.
That’s in conflict with Amazon’s 2019 commitment to reach net-zero carbon by 2040.
The company claims that the use of AI is helping cut down the carbon footprint of package delivery. Amazon is reducing carbon by using more than 20 machine learning models to improve mapping for its vast network of 390,000 delivery drivers, predicting road closures and choosing more efficient routes, the company said.
Beyond its warehouses, Amazon has also introduced generative AI to help its sellers and shoppers.
Additionally, Amazon said, it has invested $4 billion in AI startup Anthropic, which makes chatbot Claude, a competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Amazon also makes its own AI-focused microchips and its own generative AI tools for developers, which it also uses in operations, the company said.
Whether Amazon’s huge investment in generative AI will translate to profits remains an open question.
“I have yet to see huge lift in anybody’s retail business due to generative AI, including Amazon,” Kodali said. “I think a lot of their biggest impact has happened because of the earlier investments, not necessarily some of these more recent investments.”
Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models.
There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said.
It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.”
Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO.
More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow.
It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images.
Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users.
Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot.
Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1.
OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show.
Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.”
“Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us.
Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said.
“We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”
President Trump’s new tariffs on goods that the U.S. imports from over 100 countries will have an effect on consumers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told CNBC on Friday. Investors will feel the pain, too.
Microsoft’s stock dropped almost 6% in the past two days, as the Nasdaq wrapped up its worst week in five years.
“As a Microsoft shareholder, this kind of thing is not good,” Ballmer said, in an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin that was tied to Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebration. “It creates opportunity to be a serious, long-term player.”
Ballmer was sandwiched in between Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella for the interview.
“I took just enough economics in college — that tariffs are actually going to bring some turmoil,” said Ballmer, who was succeeded by Nadella in 2014. Gates, Microsoft’s first CEO, convinced Ballmer to join the company in 1980.
Gates, Ballmer and Nadella attended proceedings at Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, campus on Friday to celebrate its first half-century.
Between the tariffs and weak quarterly revenue guidance announced in January, Microsoft’s stock is on track for its fifth straight month of declines, which would be the worst stretch since 2009. But the company remains a leader in the PC operating system and productivity software markets, and its partnership with startup OpenAI has led to gains in cloud computing.
“I think that disruption is very hard on people, and so the decision to do something for which disruption was inevitable, that needs a lot of popular support, and nobody could game theorize exactly who is going to do what in response,” Ballmer said, regarding the tariffs. “So, I think citizens really like stability a lot. And I hope people — individuals who will feel this, because people are feeling it, not just the stock market, people are going to feel it.”
Ballmer, who owns the Los Angeles Clippers, is among Microsoft’s biggest fans. He said he’s the company’s largest investor. In 2014, shortly after he bought the basketball team for $2 billion, he held over 333 million shares of the stock, according to a regulatory filing.
“I’m not going to probably have 50 more years on the planet,” he said. “But whatever minutes I have, I’m gonna be a large Microsoft shareholder.” He said there’s a bright future for computing, storage and intelligence. Microsoft launched the first Azure services while Ballmer was CEO.
Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Microsoft, which pledged to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data center infrastructure in the current fiscal year, has stopped discussions or pushed back the opening of facilities in the U.S. and abroad.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, said in a Thursday note that the chance of a global recession will be 60% if Trump’s tariffs kick in as described. His previous estimate was 40%.
“Fifty years from now, or 25 years from now, what is the one thing you can be guaranteed of, is the world needs more compute,” Nadella said. “So I want to keep those two thoughts and then take one step at a time, and then whatever are the geopolitical or economic shifts, we’ll adjust to it.”
Gates, who along with co-founder Paul Allen, sought to build a software company rather than sell both software and hardware, said he wasn’t sure what the economic effects of the tariffs will be. Today, most of Microsoft’s revenue comes from software. It also sells Surface PCs and Xbox consoles.
“So far, it’s just on goods, but you know, will it eventually be on services? Who knows?” said Gates, who reportedly donated around $50 million to a nonprofit that supported Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ losing campaign.
AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi provided more clarity on the ad-tech company’s late-stage effort to acquire TikTok, calling his offer a “much stronger bid than others” on CNBC’s The Exchange Friday afternoon.
Foroughi said the company is proposing a merger between AppLovin and the entire global business of TikTok, characterizing the deal as a “partnership” where the Chinese could participate in the upside while AppLovin would run the app.
“If you pair our algorithm with the TikTok audience, the expansion on that platform for dollars spent will be through the roof,” Foroughi said.
The news comes as President Trump announced he would extend the deadline a second time for TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance to sell the U.S. subsidiary of TikTok to an American buyer or face an effective ban on U.S. app stores. The new deadline is now in June, which, as Foroughi described, “buys more time to put the pieces together” on AppLovin’s bid.
“The president’s a great dealmaker — we’re proposing, essentially an enhancement to the deal that they’ve been working on, but a bigger version of all the deals contemplated,” he added.
AppLovin faces a crowded field of other interested U.S. backers, including Amazon, Oracle, billionaire Frank McCourt and his Project Liberty consortium, and numerous private equity firms. Some proposals reportedly structure the deal to give a U.S. buyer 50% ownership of the company, rather than a complete acquisition. The Chinese government will still need to approve the deal, and AppLovin’s interest in purchasing TikTok in “all markets outside of China” is “preliminary,” according to an April 3 SEC filing.
Correction: A prior version of this story incorrectly characterized China’s ongoing role in TikTok should AppLovin acquire the app.