Slowly we are getting a better picture of the events at Donald Trump’s golf club in Palm Beach. But many questions remain unanswered.
There are unknowns about the investigation, unknowns about how all this impacts a US election that’s less than 50 days away and unknowns about where the dangerous rhetoric leads.
On the investigation – we know now that it involves FBI agents working in multiple locations from Palm Beach to Hawaii and North Carolina, and with forensic analysis of the suspect’s electronic devices at the FBI offices in Quantico, Virginia.
It’s a multi-agency operation, led by the FBI, but with input from the local sheriff’s office, the state attorney’s office and the US Secret Service.
Their work is in the very initial stages, we were told. The firearms charges against Ryan Routh are likely to be followed by further charges soon.
It’s been revealed that he didn’t fire any shots himself when he was engaged by a Secret Service agent who was a hole ahead of Donald Trump on the course.
Despite this, it’s likely he will still be charged with attempted assassination.
His GoPro camera, two bags, and his weapon are all being forensically examined, as is his phone.
Data from that phone allowed investigators to conclude that he had been in the golf course area for 12 hours before the agent spotted him.
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The Secret Service revealed that Mr Trump’s Sunday round of golf was an “off the record movement”. It was not part of his planned schedule.
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Moment Ryan Routh is arrested
Lone gunman or part of conspiracy?
This prompts the question of how Routh knew he would be there? Was it a punt by the alleged assassin?
Was he acting alone or part of a wider conspiracy? This question was raised by the sheriff: “If he’s the lone gunman, President Trump is that much safer because we have him,” he said. “But if he’s part of a conspiracy, then this whole thing really takes on a very ominous tone.”
Interviews with family in North Carolina may help investigators answer this key question as will analysis of his various communications devices – both active and dormant ones.
His previous convictions and his obsessive interest in the Ukraine War and China-Taiwan tensions hint at a complex character profile.
Image: Law enforcement officials outside the Trump International Golf Club. Pic: AP
His social media footprint is broad and suggests he voted for Trump in 2016 but then his politics shifted to the left. He certainly seems much more politically driven than the young man who shot at Mr Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania in July.
That shooting, in which a bullet brushed his ear, has been likened to an American school shooting in its modus operandi, with investigators unable to find any particular ideology motivating the gunman.
Overstretched and under-resourced
It was clear that officials wanted to press home some points in their news conference.
First – they believe their agents did a good job on Sunday. With the funding and remit they have, the operation was described by them as “textbook”.
Second – the Secret Service director said he needed more funding. He pressed Congress to understand the huge task his agents have in a threat environment he described as “hyper dynamic”. That phrase jumped out at me.
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Secret Service ‘needs more help’
Also striking was the praise the Secret Service director heaped on Biden’s secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, a man so often vilified by Donald Trump and his surrogates.
On that point, it’s notable that the investigation is being led by the FBI, an agency Mr Trump has so often said is part of the deep state. Yet he has expressed confidence and gratitude in all the agencies after Sunday.
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Trump describes gunman incident
It was striking there was not more on whether he was acting alone or not. My sense is that they think he was. But they still need to comb his background to be sure.
It was interesting that they said he tried to “recruit Afghan soldiers to fight for Ukraine”.
One line of inquiry is likely to focus on the extent to which his desire to see Ukraine win its war aligns with a belief that Donald Trump would capitulate to Russia over Ukraine.
They will want to examine any possibility that he recruited accomplices to help in eliminating Mr Trump as part of his pro-Ukraine fight.
Another big unknown is the politics; the extent to which this incident fuels Mr Trump’s support.
The last assassination attempt propelled him into his party convention with a boost in the polls. It was only upended by the replacement of his opponent Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.
My sense here is that it will not have a huge impact this time. But we’ll see.
Close to a dangerous tipping point
The singular biggest challenge now is keeping the former president and his opponent, the vice-president, safe.
Mr Trump’s language for many years has been deeply divisive.
Just this past week, baseless claims about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Springfield have led to violent threats, far-right marches and bomb scares in the small Ohio town.
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Now Mr Trump is blaming the Democrats – and their assertion he is a threat to democracy – for the attacks against him.
On social media he wrote: “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!”
The Democrats see their “threat to democracy” warning as an accurate and justified political attack against a candidate who incited the storming of the Capitol on 6 January 2021 and who refused to concede the 2020 election.
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, sees it differently.
“If you tell the American people that this person is the end of democracy… some crazy person is going to take matters into their own hands,” he said on Monday night.
He continued: “You know the big difference between conservatives and liberals? No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in last couple of months. And two people have tried to kill Donald Trump last couple months. That’s pretty strong evidence the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and cut this crap out.”
It feels like we are close to a dangerous tipping point. These are tense times in America.
Marjorie Taylor Greene – a one-time MAGA ally who has turned into a fierce critic of Donald Trump – has unexpectedly announced she is resigning from Congress.
Her relationship with the president has deteriorated in recent months, and she had vocally campaigned for the justice department to release all of its files concerning the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Mr Trump has been fiercely critical about Ms Greene on Truth Social – describing her as a “lunatic”.
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‘MAGA meltdown going on because of Epstein’
In a statement posted on X, she wrote: “Standing up for American women who were raped at 14, trafficked and used by rich powerful men, should not result in me being called a traitor and threatened by the President of the United States, whom I fought for.”
Ms Greene went on to confirm her last day in office will be on January 5.
The hard-right Republican was one of the most aggressive spokespeople for the Make America Great Again movement – and had become infamous for her combative encounters with journalists, including Sky’s Martha Kelner.
On social media, she had made posts advocating violence against Democrat opponents – and casting doubt on the 9/11 terror attacks and the school mass shootings at Parkland and Sandy Hook.
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March: Greene clashes with Sky correspondent
The bond between Ms Greene and Mr Trump started to break down after she lambasted his foreign policy – describing it as “America Last”.
Last week, the president had announced that he was withdrawing his support and endorsement for the 51-year-old, who had been expected to run for re-election in Georgia’s 14th congressional district next November.
Her statement added: “I have too much self-respect and dignity, love my family way too much, and do not want my sweet district to have to endure a hurtful and hateful primary against me by the president we all fought for, only to fight and win my election while Republicans will likely lose the midterms.”
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‘Shame on everyone that protected Epstein’
A few days ago, Ms Greene had warned the breakdown in relations with the White House had led to her construction company receiving a pipe bomb threat.
She had written on X: “President Trump’s unwarranted and vicious attacks against me were a dog whistle to dangerous radicals that could lead to serious attacks on me and my family.”
Ms Greene went on to warn his inflammatory rhetoric “puts blood in the water and creates a feeding frenzy that could ultimately lead to a harmful or even deadly outcome”.
A Grammy-winning rapper who “betrayed his country for money” has been sentenced to 14 years in prison.
Prakazrel “Pras” Michel, who was part of 1990s hip-hop group The Fugees, was convicted of illegally funnelling millions of dollars in foreign contributions to Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012.
The Justice Department had accused the 53-year-old of accepting $120m (£92m) from Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho, who wanted to gain political influence in the US.
Image: The Fugees after winning Grammys in 1997. Pic: Reuters
Prosecutors said Michel “lied unapologetically and unrelentingly to carry out his actions” – and sought to deceive the White House, senior politicians and the FBI for almost a decade.
In 2018, it is claimed he urged the Trump administration and the justice department to drop embezzlement investigations against Low.
The Oscar-winning actor said the businessman’s funding and legitimacy had been carefully vetted before they entered a partnership.
Image: Low Taek Jho. AP file pic
Prosecutors had been seeking a life sentence to “reflect the breadth and depth of Michel’s crimes, his indifference to the risks to his country, and the magnitude of his greed”.
However, the rapper’s lawyer Peter Zeidenberg has argued that the 14-year term is “completely disproportionate to the offence” – and is vowing to appeal.
Last year, a judge rejected Michel’s request for a new trial after claiming that one of his lawyers had used AI during closing arguments.
Image: Wyclef Jean, Lauryn Hill and Pras Michel formed The Fugees in the 1990s
Low Taek Jho has been accused of having a central role in the 1MDB scandal, amid claims billions of dollars were stolen from a Malaysian state fund.
The 44-year-old is a fugitive but has maintained his innocence, with his lawyers writing: “Low’s motivation for giving Michel money to donate was not so that he could achieve some policy objective.
“Instead, Low simply wanted to obtain a photograph with himself and then President Obama.”
Michel, who was born in Brooklyn, was a founding member of The Fugees with childhood friends Lauryn Hill and Wyclef Jean – selling tens of millions of records.
The Donald Trump peace plan is nothing of the sort. It takes Russian demands and presents them as peace proposals, in what is effectively for Ukraine a surrender ultimatum.
If accepted, it would reward armed aggression. The principle, sacrosanct since the Second World War, for obvious and very good reasons, that even de facto borders cannot be changed by force, will have been trampled on at the behest of the leader of the free world.
The Kremlin will have imposed terms via negotiators on a country it has violated, and whose people its troops have butchered, massacred and raped. It is without doubt the biggest crisis in Trans-Atlantic relations since the war began, if not since the inception of NATO.
The question now is: are Europe’s leaders up to meeting the daunting challenges that will follow. On past form, we cannot be sure.
Image: Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. Pic: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters
The plan proposes the following:
• Land seized by Vladimir Putin’s unwarranted and unprovoked invasion would be ceded by Kyiv.
• Territory his forces have fought but failed to take with colossal loss of life will be thrown into the bargain for good measure.
• Ukraine will be barred from NATO, from having long-range weapons, from hosting foreign troops, from allowing foreign diplomatic planes to land, and its military neutered, reduced in size by more than half.
Image: Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, File pic: Reuters
And most worryingly for Western leaders, the plan proposes NATO and Russia negotiate with America acting as mediator.
Lest we forget, America is meant to be the strongest partner in NATO, not an outside arbitrator. In one clause, Mr Trump’s lack of commitment to the Western alliance is laid bare in chilling clarity.
And even for all that, the plan will not bring peace. Mr Putin has made it abundantly clear he wants all of Ukraine.
He has a proven track record of retiring, rallying his forces, then returning for more. Reward a bully as they say, and he will only come back for more. Why wouldn’t he, if he is handed the fortress cities of Donetsk and a clear run over open tank country to Kyiv in a few years?
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US draft Russia peace plan
Since the beginning of Trump’s presidency, Europe has tried to keep the maverick president onside when his true sympathies have repeatedly reverted to Moscow.
It has been a demeaning and sycophantic spectacle, NATO’s secretary general stooping even to calling the US president ‘Daddy’. And it hasn’t worked. It may have made matters worse.
Image: A choir sing in front of an apartment building destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Ternopil, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
The parade of world leaders trooping through Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, lavishing praise on his Gaza ceasefire plan, only encouraged him to believe he is capable of solving the world’s most complex conflicts with the minimum of effort.
The Gaza plan is mired in deepening difficulty, and it never came near addressing the underlying causes of the war.
Most importantly, principles the West has held inviolable for eight decades cannot be torn up for the sake of a quick and uncertain peace.
With a partner as unreliable, the challenge to Europe cannot be clearer.
In the words of one former Baltic foreign minister: “There is a glaringly obvious message for Europe in the 28-point plan: This is the end of the end.
“We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is. Entirely.”
If Europe does not step up to the plate and guarantee Ukraine’s security in the face of this American betrayal, we could all pay the consequences.