Slowly we are getting a better picture of the events at Donald Trump’s golf club in Palm Beach. But many questions remain unanswered.
There are unknowns about the investigation, unknowns about how all this impacts a US election that’s less than 50 days away and unknowns about where the dangerous rhetoric leads.
On the investigation – we know now that it involves FBI agents working in multiple locations from Palm Beach to Hawaii and North Carolina, and with forensic analysis of the suspect’s electronic devices at the FBI offices in Quantico, Virginia.
It’s a multi-agency operation, led by the FBI, but with input from the local sheriff’s office, the state attorney’s office and the US Secret Service.
Their work is in the very initial stages, we were told. The firearms charges against Ryan Routh are likely to be followed by further charges soon.
It’s been revealed that he didn’t fire any shots himself when he was engaged by a Secret Service agent who was a hole ahead of Donald Trump on the course.
Despite this, it’s likely he will still be charged with attempted assassination.
His GoPro camera, two bags, and his weapon are all being forensically examined, as is his phone.
Data from that phone allowed investigators to conclude that he had been in the golf course area for 12 hours before the agent spotted him.
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The Secret Service revealed that Mr Trump’s Sunday round of golf was an “off the record movement”. It was not part of his planned schedule.
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Moment Ryan Routh is arrested
Lone gunman or part of conspiracy?
This prompts the question of how Routh knew he would be there? Was it a punt by the alleged assassin?
Was he acting alone or part of a wider conspiracy? This question was raised by the sheriff: “If he’s the lone gunman, President Trump is that much safer because we have him,” he said. “But if he’s part of a conspiracy, then this whole thing really takes on a very ominous tone.”
Interviews with family in North Carolina may help investigators answer this key question as will analysis of his various communications devices – both active and dormant ones.
His previous convictions and his obsessive interest in the Ukraine War and China-Taiwan tensions hint at a complex character profile.
Image: Law enforcement officials outside the Trump International Golf Club. Pic: AP
His social media footprint is broad and suggests he voted for Trump in 2016 but then his politics shifted to the left. He certainly seems much more politically driven than the young man who shot at Mr Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania in July.
That shooting, in which a bullet brushed his ear, has been likened to an American school shooting in its modus operandi, with investigators unable to find any particular ideology motivating the gunman.
Overstretched and under-resourced
It was clear that officials wanted to press home some points in their news conference.
First – they believe their agents did a good job on Sunday. With the funding and remit they have, the operation was described by them as “textbook”.
Second – the Secret Service director said he needed more funding. He pressed Congress to understand the huge task his agents have in a threat environment he described as “hyper dynamic”. That phrase jumped out at me.
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Secret Service ‘needs more help’
Also striking was the praise the Secret Service director heaped on Biden’s secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, a man so often vilified by Donald Trump and his surrogates.
On that point, it’s notable that the investigation is being led by the FBI, an agency Mr Trump has so often said is part of the deep state. Yet he has expressed confidence and gratitude in all the agencies after Sunday.
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Trump describes gunman incident
It was striking there was not more on whether he was acting alone or not. My sense is that they think he was. But they still need to comb his background to be sure.
It was interesting that they said he tried to “recruit Afghan soldiers to fight for Ukraine”.
One line of inquiry is likely to focus on the extent to which his desire to see Ukraine win its war aligns with a belief that Donald Trump would capitulate to Russia over Ukraine.
They will want to examine any possibility that he recruited accomplices to help in eliminating Mr Trump as part of his pro-Ukraine fight.
Another big unknown is the politics; the extent to which this incident fuels Mr Trump’s support.
The last assassination attempt propelled him into his party convention with a boost in the polls. It was only upended by the replacement of his opponent Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.
My sense here is that it will not have a huge impact this time. But we’ll see.
Close to a dangerous tipping point
The singular biggest challenge now is keeping the former president and his opponent, the vice-president, safe.
Mr Trump’s language for many years has been deeply divisive.
Just this past week, baseless claims about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Springfield have led to violent threats, far-right marches and bomb scares in the small Ohio town.
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Now Mr Trump is blaming the Democrats – and their assertion he is a threat to democracy – for the attacks against him.
On social media he wrote: “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!”
The Democrats see their “threat to democracy” warning as an accurate and justified political attack against a candidate who incited the storming of the Capitol on 6 January 2021 and who refused to concede the 2020 election.
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, sees it differently.
“If you tell the American people that this person is the end of democracy… some crazy person is going to take matters into their own hands,” he said on Monday night.
He continued: “You know the big difference between conservatives and liberals? No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in last couple of months. And two people have tried to kill Donald Trump last couple months. That’s pretty strong evidence the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and cut this crap out.”
It feels like we are close to a dangerous tipping point. These are tense times in America.
For Ukrainians, the spectacle of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska will be repugnant.
The man behind an unprovoked invasion of their country is being honoured with a return to the world stage by the leader of a country that was meant to be their ally.
President Trump had threatened severe sanctions on Russia within 50 days if Russia didn’t agree to a deal. He had seemed close to imposing them before letting Putin wriggle off the hook yet again.
But they are not surprised. At every stage, Trump has either sided with Russia or at least given them the benefit of the doubt.
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‘Putin won’t mess around with me’
It is clear that Putin has some kind of hold over this American president, in their minds and many others.
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Ukraine wants three things out of these talks. A ceasefire, security guarantees and reparations. It is not clear at this stage that they will get any of them.
Ukrainians and their European allies are appalled at the naive and cack-handed diplomacy that has preceded this meeting.
Vladimir Putin is sending a team of foreign affairs heavyweights, adept at getting the better of opponents in negotiations.
There are, the Financial Times reported this week, no Russia specialists left at the Trump White House.
Instead, Trump is relying on Steve Witkoff, a real estate lawyer and foreign policy novice, who has demonstrated a haphazard mastery of his brief and breathtaking credulity with the Russians.
Former British spy chief Sir Alex Younger described him today as totally out of his depth. Trump, he says, is being played like a fiddle by Putin.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict at the heart of the Trump administration’s handling of it. Witkoff and the president see it in terms of real estate. But it has never been about territory.
Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign democratic entity cannot be tolerated. He has made no pretence that his views on that have changed.
Ukrainians know that and fear any deal cooked up in Alaska will be used by Putin on the path towards that ultimate goal
Melania Trump has threatened to sue Hunter Biden for more than $1bn (£736.5m) in damages if he does not retract comments linking her to Jeffrey Epstein.
Mr Biden, who is the son of former US president Joe Biden, alleged in an interview this month that sex trafficker Epstein introduced the first lady to President Donald Trump.
“Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. The connections are, like, so wide and deep,” he claimed.
Ms Trump’s lawyer labelled the comments false, defamatory and “extremely salacious” in a letter to Mr Biden.
Image: Hunter Biden. File pic: AP
Her lawyer wrote that the first lady suffered “overwhelming financial and reputational harm” as the claims were widely discussed on social media and reported by media around the world.
The president and first lady previously said they were introduced by modelling agent Paolo Zampolli at a New York Fashion Week party in 1998.
Mr Biden attributed the claim that Epstein introduced the couple to author Michael Wolff, who was accused by Mr Trump of making up stories to sell books in June and was dubbed a “third-rate reporter” by the president.
The former president’s son doubled down on his remarks in a follow-up interview with the same YouTube outlet, Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, entitled “Hunter Biden Apology”.
Asked if he would apologise to the first lady, Mr Biden responded: “F*** that – that’s not going to happen.”
He added: “I don’t think these threats of lawsuits add up to anything other than designed distraction.”
Ms Trump’s threat to sue Mr Biden echoes a strategy employed by her husband, who has aggressively used legal action to go after critics.
Public figures like the Trumps must meet a high bar to succeed in a defamation suit like the one that could be brought by the first lady if she follows through with her threat.
In his initial interview, Mr Biden also hit out at “elites” and others in the Democratic Party, who he claims undermined his father before he dropped out of last year’s race for president.
This comes as pressure on the White House to release the Epstein files has been mounting for weeks, after he made a complete U-turn on his administration’s promise to release more information publicly.
The US Justice Department, which confirmed in July that it would not be releasing the files, said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.
But there are fears they will discuss a deal robbing Ukraine of the land currently occupied by Russia – something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he won’t accept.
Here’s what three of our correspondents think ahead of the much-anticipated face-to-face.
Putin’s legacy is at stake – he’ll want territory and more By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent, in Alaska
Putin doesn’t just want victory. He needs it.
Three and a half years after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, this war has to end in a visible win for the Russian president. It can’t have been for nothing. His legacy is at stake.
So the only deal I think he’ll be willing to accept at Friday’s summit is one that secures Moscow’s goals.
These include territory (full control of the four Ukrainian regions which Russia has already claimed), permanent neutrality for Kyiv and limits on its armed forces.
I expect he’ll be trying to convince Trump that such a deal is the quickest path to peace. The only alternative, in Russia’s eyes, is an outright triumph on the battlefield.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019
I think Putin‘s hope is that the American president agrees with this view and then gives Ukraine a choice: accept our terms or go it alone without US support.
A deal like that might not be possible this week, but it may be in the future if Putin can give Trump something in return.
That’s why there’s been lots of talk from Moscow this week about all the lucrative business deals that can come from better US-Russia relations.
The Kremlin will want to use this opportunity to remind the White House of what else it can offer, apart from an end to the fighting.
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What will Kyiv be asked to give up?
Ukraine would rather this summit not be happening By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor, in Ukraine
Ukraine would far rather this meeting wasn’t happening.
Trump seemed to have lost patience with Putin and was about to hit Russia with more severe sanctions until he was distracted by the Russian leader’s suggestion that they meet.
Ukrainians say the Alaska summit rewards Putin by putting him back on the world stage.
But the meeting is happening, and they have to be realistic.
Most of all, they want a ceasefire before any negotiations can happen. Then they want the promise of security guarantees.
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2:35
Does Europe have any power over Ukraine’s future?
That is because they know that Putin may well come back for more even if peace does break out. They need to be able to defend themselves should that happen.
And they want the promise of reparations to rebuild their country, devastated by Putin’s wanton, unprovoked act of aggression.
There are billions of Russian roubles and assets frozen across the West. They want them released and sent their way.
What they fear is Trump being hoodwinked by Putin with the lure of profit from US-Russian relations being restored, regardless of Ukraine’s fate.
Image: US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters
That would allow Russia to regain its strength, rearm and prepare for another round of fighting in a few years’ time.
Trump and his golf buddy-turned-negotiator Steve Witkoff appear to believe Putin might be satisfied with keeping some of the land he has taken by force.
Putin says he wants much more than that. He wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a country separate from Russia.
Any agreement short of that is only likely to be temporary.
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1:41
Zelenskyy: I told Trump ‘Putin is bluffing’
Trump’s pride on the line – he has a reputation to restore By Martha Kelner, US correspondent, in Alaska
As with anything Donald Trump does, he already has a picture in his mind.
The image of Trump shaking hands with the ultimate strongman leader, Vladimir Putin, on US soil calls to his vanity and love of an attention-grabbing moment.
There is also pride at stake.
Image: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters
Trump campaigned saying he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, so there is an element of him wanting to follow through on that promise to voters, even though it’s taken him 200-plus days in office and all he’s got so far is this meeting, without apparently any concessions on Putin’s end.
In Trump’s mind – and in the minds of many of his supporters – he is the master negotiator, the chief dealmaker, and he wants to bolster that reputation.
He is keen to further the notion that he negotiates in a different, more straightforward way than his predecessors and that it is paying dividends.
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