Slowly we are getting a better picture of the events at Donald Trump’s golf club in Palm Beach. But many questions remain unanswered.
There are unknowns about the investigation, unknowns about how all this impacts a US election that’s less than 50 days away and unknowns about where the dangerous rhetoric leads.
On the investigation – we know now that it involves FBI agents working in multiple locations from Palm Beach to Hawaii and North Carolina, and with forensic analysis of the suspect’s electronic devices at the FBI offices in Quantico, Virginia.
It’s a multi-agency operation, led by the FBI, but with input from the local sheriff’s office, the state attorney’s office and the US Secret Service.
Their work is in the very initial stages, we were told. The firearms charges against Ryan Routh are likely to be followed by further charges soon.
It’s been revealed that he didn’t fire any shots himself when he was engaged by a Secret Service agent who was a hole ahead of Donald Trump on the course.
Despite this, it’s likely he will still be charged with attempted assassination.
His GoPro camera, two bags, and his weapon are all being forensically examined, as is his phone.
Data from that phone allowed investigators to conclude that he had been in the golf course area for 12 hours before the agent spotted him.
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The Secret Service revealed that Mr Trump’s Sunday round of golf was an “off the record movement”. It was not part of his planned schedule.
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0:23
Moment Ryan Routh is arrested
Lone gunman or part of conspiracy?
This prompts the question of how Routh knew he would be there? Was it a punt by the alleged assassin?
Was he acting alone or part of a wider conspiracy? This question was raised by the sheriff: “If he’s the lone gunman, President Trump is that much safer because we have him,” he said. “But if he’s part of a conspiracy, then this whole thing really takes on a very ominous tone.”
Interviews with family in North Carolina may help investigators answer this key question as will analysis of his various communications devices – both active and dormant ones.
His previous convictions and his obsessive interest in the Ukraine War and China-Taiwan tensions hint at a complex character profile.
Image: Law enforcement officials outside the Trump International Golf Club. Pic: AP
His social media footprint is broad and suggests he voted for Trump in 2016 but then his politics shifted to the left. He certainly seems much more politically driven than the young man who shot at Mr Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania in July.
That shooting, in which a bullet brushed his ear, has been likened to an American school shooting in its modus operandi, with investigators unable to find any particular ideology motivating the gunman.
Overstretched and under-resourced
It was clear that officials wanted to press home some points in their news conference.
First – they believe their agents did a good job on Sunday. With the funding and remit they have, the operation was described by them as “textbook”.
Second – the Secret Service director said he needed more funding. He pressed Congress to understand the huge task his agents have in a threat environment he described as “hyper dynamic”. That phrase jumped out at me.
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0:45
Secret Service ‘needs more help’
Also striking was the praise the Secret Service director heaped on Biden’s secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, a man so often vilified by Donald Trump and his surrogates.
On that point, it’s notable that the investigation is being led by the FBI, an agency Mr Trump has so often said is part of the deep state. Yet he has expressed confidence and gratitude in all the agencies after Sunday.
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3:36
Trump describes gunman incident
It was striking there was not more on whether he was acting alone or not. My sense is that they think he was. But they still need to comb his background to be sure.
It was interesting that they said he tried to “recruit Afghan soldiers to fight for Ukraine”.
One line of inquiry is likely to focus on the extent to which his desire to see Ukraine win its war aligns with a belief that Donald Trump would capitulate to Russia over Ukraine.
They will want to examine any possibility that he recruited accomplices to help in eliminating Mr Trump as part of his pro-Ukraine fight.
Another big unknown is the politics; the extent to which this incident fuels Mr Trump’s support.
The last assassination attempt propelled him into his party convention with a boost in the polls. It was only upended by the replacement of his opponent Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.
My sense here is that it will not have a huge impact this time. But we’ll see.
Close to a dangerous tipping point
The singular biggest challenge now is keeping the former president and his opponent, the vice-president, safe.
Mr Trump’s language for many years has been deeply divisive.
Just this past week, baseless claims about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Springfield have led to violent threats, far-right marches and bomb scares in the small Ohio town.
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Now Mr Trump is blaming the Democrats – and their assertion he is a threat to democracy – for the attacks against him.
On social media he wrote: “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!”
The Democrats see their “threat to democracy” warning as an accurate and justified political attack against a candidate who incited the storming of the Capitol on 6 January 2021 and who refused to concede the 2020 election.
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, sees it differently.
“If you tell the American people that this person is the end of democracy… some crazy person is going to take matters into their own hands,” he said on Monday night.
He continued: “You know the big difference between conservatives and liberals? No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in last couple of months. And two people have tried to kill Donald Trump last couple months. That’s pretty strong evidence the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and cut this crap out.”
It feels like we are close to a dangerous tipping point. These are tense times in America.
At least 82 people have died in flash flooding in Texas as the search continues for dozens still missing.
At least 41 people remain missing, including at least 10 girls and one councillor still unaccounted for from Camp Mystic in Kerr County, a Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadalupe River.
At Camp Mystic at least 27 people died, the camp confirmed in a statement to Sky’s US partner NBC News. It said it is working with local and state officials to try to locate those who remain missing.
“This tragedy has devastated us and our entire community. Our hearts are broken alongside the families that are enduring this tragedy, and we share their hope and prayers,” Camp Mystic added.
Image: A man helping with the search for missing campers reacts while stopping on the road near Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Image: Rescue workers are seen on land and a boat as they search for missing people near Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Image: A person removes bedding from sleeping quarters at Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
The director of the camp, Dick Eastland, was among those killed in the floods. He died trying to save the campers “he so loved and cared for”, his grandson George said on social media.
Water burst from the banks of the Guadalupe River and began sweeping into Kerr County and other areas around 4am local time on Friday, killing at least 68 people, including at least 28 children and 40 adults.
In nearby Kendall County, two people have died. At least six people were killed in Travis County, while at least four people died in Burnet County. In both Williamson and Tom Green counties, at least one person has died.
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US President Donald Trump has signed a “major disaster declaration” for Kerr County to ensure that rescuers get the resources they need.
Image: A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
Image: Vehicles ride through a flooded road, following flash flooding, in Hunt, Texas. Pic: Reuters/Marco Bello
Image: Officials ride a boat as they arrive to assist with a recovery effort at Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Rescue crews have already saved hundreds of people and would work around the clock to find those still unaccounted for, Texas governor Greg Abbott pledged, adding that there were at least 41 people confirmed to be missing.
Mr Abbott asked relatives of people who may have been camping in Kerr County to contact local authorities, as it was difficult to know just who is missing due to the number of people who may have been camping in the area unofficially.
“There are people who are missing who are not on the ‘known confirmed missing’ because we do not know who they are,” he said at a news conference last night.
Meanwhile, police are collecting DNA from family members to help identify those who have died in the floods.
Image: A military helicopter flies by over the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Image: A vehicle rests against vegetation near a cabin, following flash flooding, in Hunt, Texas. Pic: Reuters/Marco Bello
Colonel Freeman Martin, from the Texas Department of Public Safety, said there are several “unidentified” people at funeral homes, both adults and children.
The DNA collected from relatives was flown to the University of North Texas in Dallas.
“We will have rapid DNA in hours, not days, to get some closure and information back to those families,” Colonel Freeman Martin said.
He also said the death toll is certain to rise over the next few days.
Image: A vehicle pulled from the water after the deadly flooding in Kerrville, Texas. Pic: Reuters/Sergio Flores
Image: Rescuers paddle an inflatable boat as they search along a waterway following flash flooding, in Kerrville. Pic: Reuters/Marco Bello
This comes as Mr Abbott indicated that the danger wasn’t over yet either, as additional rounds of heavy rains lasting into Tuesday could produce more “rapid flash flooding events”, especially in places already saturated.
The governor urged drivers to be “extraordinarily cautious” for the next 48 hours due to the potential floods, as some people across Texas died when they were swept away in vehicles.
“Rising water on roads can occur very rapidly. You may think you can drive through it, only to find out when you’re in there that it is too late and you are getting swept away,” he said.
“You don’t need to get from point A to point B if you are going to risk your life,” he added, telling people to “turn around, don’t drown”.
Details of those who have died and those who are missing after US flash floods are slowly emerging – with several young girls among those unaccounted for.
At least 69 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 11 girls and a counsellor from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Tributes to those who died, and appeals for those who are still missing, are now being shared.
Image: Officials said 27 girls from Camp Mystic were reported missing after the flash floods in Texas
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3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Who are the victims?
Renee Smajstrla, eight
Image: Renee Smajstrla. Pic: Family handout
Renee’s uncle Shawn Salta confirmed the eight-year-old had died, and said she was one of 700 children staying at Camp Mystic.
“Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly,” he said.
“We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday.
“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic.”
Sarah Marsh, eight
Image: Sarah Marsh. Pic: Family handout
Mountain Brook mayor Stewart Welch confirmed the death of eight-year-old Sarah, from Alabama, who was a pupil at Cherokee Bend Elementary.
“This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community,” he said. “Sarah’s passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her.
“As we grieve alongside the Marsh family, we also remember the many others affected by this tragedy.”
Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine
Image: Lila Bonner (left) and Eloise Peck. Pic: Family handout
Eloise’s mother Missy Peck told local broadcaster FOX4 that her daughter and Lila were best friends and cabinmates at Camp Mystic.
Writing about her daughter on Instagram, Ms Peck said: “She lost her life in the tragic flooding… our family is grieving and processing this unimaginable loss together.”
Lila’s family told NBC Dallas Fort Worth, a local affiliate network of Sky’s US partner network, that they were in “unimaginable grief”, and said: “We ache with all who loved her.”
Janie Hunt, nine
Image: Janie Hunt
Janie’s family confirmed her death to a reporter from NBC Dallas Fort Worth, who said “her mother tells me she’s devastated”.
Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic
Image: Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout
Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told the Washington Post that Mr Eastland, who owned the camp died in a helicopter on the way to a Houston hospital.
Local outlet The Kerrville Daily Times reported he was killed while trying to save the girls from the flash floods.
“It doesn’t surprise me at all that his last act of kindness and sacrifice was working to save the lives of campers,” guest columnist Paige Sumner said in the Daily Times’ tribute to Mr Eastland.
Blair and Brooke Harber, 13 and 11
Image: Blair and Brooke Harber. Pic: Family handout
RJ Harber told CNN his daughters died during flooding in Kerr County, saying Blair “was a gifted student and had a generous kind heart”.
He added that Brooke “was like a light in any room, people gravitated to her and she made them laugh and enjoy the moment”.
He also said both his parents were still missing.
Jane Ragsdale, owner of Heart O’ the Hills camp
Image: Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills
On Heart O’ the Hills’s website, the camp confirmed it was “right in the path of the flood” along the Guadalupe River.
While there were no campers in residence, Jane Ragsdale died. The camp said: “We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane’s death.
“She embodied the spirit of Heart O’ the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer.”
Julian Ryan, 27
Image: Julian Ryan. Pic: GoFundMe
Relatives of Mr Ryan told local news broadcaster KHOU 11 that he died saving his family from floodwaters in Texas Hill County.
They described how he tried to smash a window to help them escape the rising water, but it cut his arm and he bled out before help could arrive.
Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River.
At least 51 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As rescue teams continue to search for the missing, local and federal officials have come under fire over their flood preparations and about why those along the river weren’t warned of the risks sooner.
Image: A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
Image: Campers embrace at a reunification area. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
What happened?
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Homes and vehicles were swept away by the downpour – equivalent to months’ worth of rain – while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit.
The death toll stands at: • At least 43 people, including 15 children and 28 adults, in Kerr County, • One person in Kendall County, • At least four people in Travis County, • At least two in Burnet County, • And one person in the city of San Angelo.
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1:20
House sweeps away in flash floods
What flood warnings were there?
Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger – at 4.23am local time.
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In a statement, AccuWeather said that “these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety”.
It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.
However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain.
“It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.
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3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Were they enough?
Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions.
Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend’s house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: “What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now.”
Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival.
“I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside,” he said, “so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway”.
Image: People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River in Ingram, Texas. Pic: AP
Image: A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
He said in a statement: “People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast.”
Separately, the NWS’s union told NBC News the agency’s offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, “giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met”.
What have officials said?
Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official, said: “We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming.”
“We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States,” he said, adding: “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”
Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, “the public reeled at the cost”.
At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that “everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict” before saying “we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification” from the NWS.
She said a “moderate” flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade their technology.
Image: Kristi Noem and Texas governor Greg Abbott give a news briefing. Pic: AP
Will forecasting get better?
While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the parent organisation of the NWS.
A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.
Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.