No change in CPI inflation ahead of interest rate decision – but another measure ticks unexpectedly up
There’s been no change in the rate of price rises, official inflation figures showed.
The rate of inflation stood at 2.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics said, the same as a month earlier.
The announcement comes the day before interest rate setters at the Bank of England decide on the cost of borrowing, controlled through the interest rate.
Markets are expecting only a 26% chance of an interest rate cut.
Rises behind the headline figure
But another measure of inflation ticked unexpectedly up. Core inflation rose to 3.6%, even higher than economists had forecast.
Bank officials closely watch core inflation as it gives a reading on price rises without elements like food and energy, which are prone to rise and fall quickly.
A rise in core inflation to 3.5% had been anticipated.
An increase was also seen in services inflation, which rose from 5.2% in July to 5.6% in August. This measure encompasses the culture and hospitality sectors.
Why?
The main item acting to bring up inflation was airfares to European destinations, which showed a large rise during the months, following a fall a year ago, the ONS said.
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Lower restaurant and hotel costs, and a cheaper price for refilling a tank of petrol or diesel, was a balance against the air far rise, as was slightly cheaper shop-bought alcohol.
Cheaper oil prices also meant the cost of raw materials was down, which meant the cost of goods leaving factories slowed.
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Responding to the figures chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said: “Years of sky-high inflation have taken their toll, and prices are still much higher than four years ago.
“So, while more manageable inflation is welcome, we know that millions of families across Britain are struggling, which is why we are determined to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.”
Business
UK interest rates an outlier after decision to hold but Bank of England forecasts inflation rise to 2.5%
There has been no change to the UK interest rate despite the US and European central banks all moving to cut in the last week.
The Bank of England has kept the interest rate at 5% as official figures this week showed some measures of price rises grew.
It follows the first cut in more than four years.
The rate set by the Bank impacts how much lenders charge to borrow money, so it affects how expensive mortgages or credit card bills are.
But there was no consensus on the decision. One of the nine rate decision-makers voted for a cut.
There were signals of the Bank’s direction of travel from governor Andrew Bailey.
Where to next?
If the economy continues to progress in line with its expectations “we should be able to reduce rates gradually over time”, he said.
But, he said, “we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much”.
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Market expectations are currently for a cut at the next meeting in November followed by a further one in December.
The latest forecasts from the Bank are for inflation to rise again, reaching 2.5% by the end of the year.
How did we get here?
Interest rates were brought to a high last seen during the 2008 global financial crash in an effort to bring down spiralling inflation.
More expensive borrowing can choke economic demand and slow price rises.
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Bank of England holds interest rates
The Bank is tasked with bringing inflation down to 2%. It currently stands at 2.2%.
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, brought interest rates down by 0.5 percentage points to 4.75% to 5% on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced borrowing costs last week to 3.5%.
Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.
Reaction
Sterling strengthened, following the news and against a weakened dollar a pound bought $1.33, the highest amount in more than two years.
Business
Why Bank of England is in no rush to lower interest rates – even though some think decision to wait is dangerous
Slowly does it.
That’s the overarching message to take away from the Bank of England‘s latest monetary policy decision. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, which decided yesterday to cut interest rates by half a percentage point – more than many had expected – the Bank wanted to signal today that it’s in no rush.
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Alongside the decision to leave borrowing costs on hold at 5%, the Bank’s governor also signalled that he and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee were in no rush to cut them again. Provided there aren’t any inflation surprises, he said, “we should be able to reduce rates gradually over time”. He added: “But it’s vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”
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The Bank of England has held the base interest rate at 5%
Even so, the Bank is expected to carry on cutting rates in the coming months. Indeed, economists think the Bank will cut rates in November by at least a quarter percentage point, followed by more cuts next year, taking borrowing costs down towards 3% by next summer.
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That’s largely because inflation is now considerably lower than in recent years, and because there is evidence that high interest rates are starting to weigh down economic activity. The longer those rates stay high, the bigger the depressive impact they have on the UK.
But that raises another issue. For some economists, the Bank of England’s gradualist approach is dangerous. They worry that higher rates, which deter companies and individuals from spending and investing, are causing unnecessary damage.
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That helps explain why one of the MPC members, Swati Dhingra, voted to reduce rates at this meeting.
But the rest of the committee was of one mind – no point in rushing.
Whether they are right is something we’ll find out in the coming months.
There has been no change to the UK interest rate despite the US and European central banks all moving to cut in the last week.
The Bank of England has kept the interest rate at 5% as official figures this week showed some measures of price rises grew.
It follows the first cut in more than four years.
The rate set by the Bank impacts how much lenders charge to borrow money, so it affects how expensive mortgages or credit card bills are.
But there was no consensus on the decision. One of the nine rate decision-makers voted for a cut.
Where to next?
There were signals of the Bank’s direction of travel from governor Andrew Bailey.
If the economy continues to progress in line with its expectations “we should be able to reduce rates gradually over time”, he said.
But, he said, “we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much”.
Market expectations are currently for a cut at the next meeting in November followed by a further one in December.
How did we get here?
Interest rates were brought to a high last seen during the 2008 global financial crash in an effort to bring down spiralling inflation.
More expensive borrowing can choke economic demand and slow price rises.
The Banks is tasked with bringing inflation down to 2%. It currently stands at 2.2%.
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, brought interest rates down by 0.5 percentage points to 4.75% to 5% on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced borrowing costs last week to 3.5%.
Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.
Reaction
Sterling strengthened, following the news and against a weakened dollar a pound bought $1.33, the highest amount in more than two years.
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