The RN-Tuapsinsky refinery operated by Rosneft Oil Co. in Tuapse, Russia.
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
SINGAPORE — As the world’s oil traders and analysts gathered at the annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore last week, the slump in oil and where it was headed was foremost in everybody’s mind.
China, the main engine driving the world’s oil demand, has been sputtering. In the International Energy Agency’s most recent September report, year-on-year global oil demand grew 800,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2024, decelerating to its slowest growth since 2020 .
Members of alliance have recently postponed plans to hike a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day in October, as part of a program to return a broader 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over the following months.
Given the situation, lower oil prices were the dominant theme in Asia’s largest oil conference. The question was not whether oil will go lower, but mostly by how much will it decline in the coming years.
Oil at $50?
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven estimated that crude prices could fall to the low $60s per barrel level by within the next two years, if China demand remained tepid. He did not rule out an even steeper decline.
“We estimate that Brent could fall to roughly $50 per barrel in a moderate [U.S.] recession … We have a fairly benign view on the global economy,” Struyven said during the conference.
It’s hard to look beyond China when thinking about the supply and demand balance for next year.
Ben Luckock
global head of oil at Trafigura
“Things are slowing down. Doesn’t mean a bust, I don’t think so. Stagnant? Perhaps, and that’s bad enough for oil,” said Torbjörn Törnqvist, CEO of commodities trading house Gunvor.
Trading Giant Trafigura raised concerns about China’s weak demand, and the global oil consumption tied to it.
“It’s hard to look beyond China when thinking about the supply and demand balance for next year,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s global head of oil, told CNBC on the sidelines of the conference.
“I suspect we’re probably going to go into the 60s sometime relatively soon,” he said. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $73.09 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate is at $70.57 per barrel.
Oil prices have fallen in spite of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Luckock, however, warned about becoming too bearish. “It’s dangerous because there’s so many events out there that can ruin your day.”
“I wouldn’t put all your chips on the table being short,” he added.
India offers some hope
China’s slowdown has spurred some to scour for alternative oil demand drivers, with a few eyeing India as a potential candidate. India is the third largest consumer of oil at around 5 million barrels of oil per day, 5% of the world’s oil consumption.
India is the world’s fastest growing large economy, and is targeting to overtake both Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy in as soon as 2027.
Hong-Bing Chen, general manager at Chinese refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical said that he sees further growth in India, as well as more consumption of gasoline and gas oil from the the South Asian nation.
Things are slowing down. Doesn’t mean a bust, I don’t think so. Stagnant? Perhaps, and that’s bad enough for oil.
Torbjörn Törnqvist
CEO of Gunvor
Others experts were more circumspect.
“Keep in mind that Indian demand is one-third of Chinese demand,” said Vandana Hari, founder and CEO of Vanda Insights. “So is there going to be another China in terms of global oil demand growth in our lifetime or potentially thereafter? I don’t think so,” she said.
India’s growth rate will be consistent and over the long term, well into the mid 2040s, but it’s not going to be the same size and magnitude as that of China’s, said Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy Facts Global Energy.
Mitsubishi is partnering with Ample and Yamoto Transports to deploy an innovative new battery swap network for electric cars in its Japanese home market — but it’s not just for electric cars. Mitsubishi Fuso commercial trucks are getting in on the action, too!
Despite a number of early EV adopters with an overdeveloped concept of ownership, battery swap technology has proven to be both extremely effective and extremely positive to the overall EV ownership experience. And when you see how simple it is to add hundreds of miles of driving in just 100 seconds — quicker, in many cases, than pumping a tank of liquid fuel into an ICE-powered car — you might come around, yourself.
That seems to be what Mitsubishi thinks, anyway, and they’re hoping they’ll be your go-to choice when it’s time to electrify your regional and last-mile commercial delivery fleet(s) by launching a multi-year pilot program to deploy more than 150 battery-swappable commercial electric vehicles and 14 modular battery swapping stations across Tokyo, where the company plans to showcase its “five minute charging” tech in full view of hundreds of commercial fleets and, crucially, the executives of the companies that own and manage them.
How battery swap works for electric trucks; via Mitsubishi Fuso.
A truck like the Mitsubishi eCanter typically requires a full night of AC charging to top off its batteries, and at least an hour or two on DC charging in Japan, according to Fuso. This joint pilot by Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Fuso Trucks, and Ample aims to circumvent this issue of forced downtime with its swappable batteries, supporting vehicle uptime by delivering a full charge within minutes. The move is meant to encourage the transport industry’s EV shift while creating a depository of stored energy that can be deployed to the grid in the event of a natural disaster — something Mitsubishi in Japan has been working on for years.
The pilot is backed by Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s “Technology Development Support Project for Promoting New Energy,” with local delivery operator Yamato Transport testing swappable EVs for delivery operations on both its eCanter light-duty trucks and Mitsubishi Minicab kei-class electric vans.
Electrek’s Take
Fuso eCanter battery swap; via Mitsubishi.
Electrifying the commercial truck fleet is a key part of decarbonizing city truck fleets – not just here in the US, but around the world. I called the eCanter, “a great product for moving stuff around densely packed city streets,” and eliminating the corporate fear of EV charging in the wild just makes it an even better product for that purpose.
Here’s hoping we see more “right size” electric solutions like this one (and more battery swapping tech) in small towns and tight urban environments stateside somewhat sooner than later.
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After becoming the first European brand to offer fully electric versions of every model it sells — and at the same price as the ICE models — Opel is going even further, with a new, AWD electric SUV that should give American Jeep fans hope for a new electric Cherokee!
Now part of the Stellantis, rather than GM portfolio of brands, Rüsselsheim-based Opel showed off the first official pictures of its new Opel Grandland Electric AWD — the company’s first all-electric SUV to feature the “Blitz” performance emblem and all-wheel drive.
“Our top-of-the-range Grandland SUV is a milestone for Opel,” says Opel CEO Florian Huettl. “Customers already have a choice of battery-electric drive, plug-in hybrid and hybrid with 48-volt technology. We are now offering even more choice with the Grandland Electric AWD and thus ensuring that our customers can enjoy maximum efficiency and safety in diverse weather and road conditions, combined with plenty of driving fun.”
Stellantis gets it right in Europe
Opel says its new, AWD Grandland is its most aerodynamically efficient model yet, with a drag coefficient (Cd) of just 0.278. That efficiency, paired with similarly efficient electric motors and a 73 kWh li-ion NMC battery give the electric crossover a 501 km (311 mile) WLTP range, while a combined 325 hp and 375 lb-ft of torque should make for suitably spirited acceleration to go along with all that green cred.
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Suspension and handling, too, are promised to deliver on what Opel claims is a “typical” Teutonic driving experience in the Grandland AWD:
Both driving pleasure and comfort are further emphasized by dampers with frequency selective damping technology. This unique technology comes as standard on the Grandland Electric AWD and incorporates a second hydraulic circuit in the damper chamber to mechanically adapt the damping force in relation to the frequency. Depending on the situation, road surface conditions and driving style, it enables different damping characteristics for comfortable gliding at high frequencies – i.e. with short impacts such as on cobblestones or a manhole cover – as well as for a sporty, ambitious driving style with more direct contact with the road at low frequencies. The Grandland reacts even more immediately and directly to any command from the driver and, as is typical for Opel, remains stable when braking, cornering and at high speeds on the Autobahn.
OPEL PRESS RELEASE
The Opel Grandland Electric AWD ships with four standard drive modes that include “normal,” eco, sport, and 4WD mode, which simulates locking axles and true 4×4 off-road performance. The ESP and traction control systems adopt specific settings to enhance grip in 4WD mode as well, and maximum power and torque are instantly available.
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Like a 90s “gifted” kid that was supposed to be a lot of things, the electric Jeep Wagoneer S never really found its place — but with dealers discounting the Jeep brands forward-looking flagship by nearly $25,000, it might be time to give the go-fast Wagoneer S a second look.
Whether we’re talking about Mercedes-Benz, Cerberus, Fiat, or even Enzo Ferrari, outsiders have labeled Jeep as a potentially premium brand that could, “if managed properly,” command luxury-level prices all over the globe. That hasn’t happened, and Stellantis is just the latest in a long line of companies to sink massive capital into the brand only to realize that people will not, in fact, spend Mercedes money on a Jeep.
That said, the Jeep Wagoneer S is not a bad car (and neither is its totally different, hideously massive, ICE-powered Wagoneer sibling, frankly). Built on the same Stellantis STLA Large vehicle platform that underpins the sporty Charger Daytona EVs, the confusingly-named Wagoneer S packs dual electric motors putting out almost 600 hp. That’s good enough to scoot the ‘ute 0 to 60 mph in a stomach-turning 3.5 seconds and enough, on paper, to convince Stellantis executives that they had developed a real, market-ready alternative to the Tesla Model Y.
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With the wrong name and a sky-high starting price of $66,995 (not including the $1,795 destination fee), however, that demand didn’t materialize, leaving the Wagoneer S languishing on dealer lots across the country.
That could be about to change, however, thanks to big discounts on Wagoneer S being reported at CDJR dealers in several states, according to our friends at the Car Dealership Guy podcast.
Jimmy Britt Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram in Georgia, has a Wagoneer S with an MSRP of $67,590 listed at $43,104 ($24,486 off)
In Florida, Taverna Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Fiat has a $67,590 Wagoneer S slashed to $43,138 ($24,452 off)
Chris Nikel Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram Fiat in Oklahoma has a Wagoneer S listed for $43,425 ($24,165 off)
“Stellantis bet big on electric versions of iconic American brands like Jeep and Dodge, but consumers aren’t buying the premise,” writes CDG’s Marcus Amick. “(Stellantis’ dealer body) is now stuck with expensive EVs that need huge discounts to move, eating into already thin margins while competitors focus on [more] profitable gas-powered vehicles.”
All of which is to say: if you’ve found yourself drawn to the Jeep Wagoneer S, but couldn’t quite stomach the $70,000+ window stickers, you might want to check in with your local Jeep dealer and see how you feel about it at a JCPenneys-like 30% off!
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