China would love a domestic Nvidia rival — but that’s proving quite the challenge
The flags of China and the USA are being displayed on a smartphone, with an NVIDIA chip visible in the background.
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Chinese companies are ramping up efforts to produce a viable alternative to Nvidia’s chips that power artificial intelligence as Beijing continues its efforts to wean itself off American technology.
U.S. sanctions slapped on China over the past few years, along with Nvidia‘s dominance in the space, have provided big challenges for Bejing’s efforts, at least in the short term, analysts told CNBC.
Nvidia’s well-documented boom has been driven by large cloud computing players buying its server products which contain its graphics processing units, or GPUs. These chips are enabling companies, such as ChatGPT maker OpenAI, to train their huge AI models on massive amounts of data.
These AI models are fundamental to applications like chatbots and other emerging AI applications.
The U.S. government has restricted the export of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to China since 2022, with restrictions tightening last year.
Such semiconductors are key to China’s ambitions to become a leading AI player.
CNBC spoke to analysts who identified some of China’s leading contenders that are looking to challenge Nvidia, including technology giants Huawei, Alibaba and Baidu and startups such as Biren Technology and Enflame.
The overarching view is that they are lagging behind Nvidia at this point.
“These companies have made notable progress in developing AI chips tailored to specific applications (ASICs),” Wei Sun, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
“However, competing with Nvidia still presents substantial challenges in technological gaps, especially in general-purpose GPU. Matching Nvidia in short-term is unlikely.”
China’s key challenges
Chinese firms have a “lack of technology expertise”, according to Sun, highlighting one of the challenges.
However, it’s the U.S. sanctions and their knock-on effects that pose the biggest roadblocks to China’s ambitions.
Some of China’s leading Nvidia challengers have been placed on the U.S. Entity List, a blacklist which restricts their access to American technology. Meanwhile, a number of U.S. curbs have restricted key AI-related semiconductors and machinery from being exported to China.
China’s GPU players all design chips and rely on a manufacturing company to produce their chips. For a while, this would have been Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. But U.S. restrictions mean many of these firms cannot access the chips made by TSMC.
They therefore have to turn to SMIC, China’s biggest chipmaker, whose technology remains generations behind TSMC. Part of the reason why it’s lagging behind, is because Washington has restricted SMIC’s access to a key piece of machinery from Dutch firm ASML, which is required to manufacture the most advance chips.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been pushing development of more advanced chips for its smartphones and AI chips, which is taking up capacity at SMIC, according to Paul Triolo, a partner at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge.
“The key bottleneck will be domestic foundry leader SMIC, which will have a complex problem of dividing limited resources for its advanced node production between Huawei, which is taking up the lion’s share currently, the GPU startups, and many other Chinese design firms which have been or may be cutoff from using global foundry leader TSMC to manufacture their advanced designs,” Triolo told CNBC.
Nvidia is more than just GPUs
Nvidia has found success due to its advanced semiconductors, but also with its CUDA software platform that allows developers to create applications to run on the U.S. chipmaker’s hardware. This has led to the development of a so-called ecosystem around Nvidia’s products that others might find hard to replicate.
“This is the key, it is not just about the hardware, but about the overall ecosystem, tools for developers, and the ability to continue to evolve this ecosystem going forward as the technology advances,” Triolo said.
Huawei leading the pack
Triolo identified Huawei as one of the leaders in China with its Ascend series of data center processors.
The firm’s current generation of chip is called the Ascend 910B, and the company is gearing up to launch the Ascend 910C, which could be on par with Nvidia’s H100 product, according to a Wall Street Journal report in August.
In its annual report earlier this year, Nvidia explicitly identified Huawei, among other companies, as a competitor in areas such as chips, software for AI and networking products.
In the area of software and building a developer community, Huawei “holds lots of advantages,” Triolo said. But it faces similar challenges to the rest of the industry in trying to compete with Nvidia.
“The GPU software support ecosystem is much more entrenched around Nvidia and to a lesser degree AMD, and Huawei faces major challenges, both in producing sufficient quantities of advanced GPUs such as part of the Ascend 910C, and continuing to innovate and improve the performance of the hardware, given U.S. export controls that are limiting the ability of SMIC to produce advanced semiconductors,” Triolo said.
Chip IPOs ahead?
The challenges facing China’s Nvidia competitors have been evident over the past two years. In 2022, Biren Technology carried out a round of layoffs, followed by Moore Threads the year after, with both companies blaming U.S. sanctions.
But startups are still holding out hope, looking to raise money to fund their goals. Bloomberg reported last week that Enflame and Biren are both looking to go public to raise money.
“Biren and the other GPU startups are staffed with experienced industry personnel from Nvidia, AMD, and other leading western semiconductor companies, but they have the additional challenge of lacking the financial depth that Huawei has,” Triolo said.
“Hence both Biren and Enflame are seeking IPOs in Hong Kong, to raise funding for additional hiring and expansion.”
Technology
Nvidia positioned to weather Trump tariffs, chip demand ‘off the charts,’ says Altimeter’s Gerstner
Altimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner said Thursday that he’s moving out of the “bomb shelter” with Nvidia and into a position of safety, expecting that the chipmaker is positioned to withstand President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs.
“The growth and the demand for GPUs is off the charts,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report,” referring to Nvidia’s graphics processing units that are powering the artificial intelligence boom. He said investors just need to listen to commentary from OpenAI, Google and Elon Musk.
President Trump announced an expansive and aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy in a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday. The plan established a 10% baseline tariff, though many countries like China, Vietnam and Taiwan are subject to steeper rates. The announcement sent stocks tumbling on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down more than 5%, headed for its worst day since 2022.
The big reason Nvidia may be better positioned to withstand Trump’s tariff hikes is because semiconductors are on the list of exceptions, which Gerstner called a “wise exception” due to the importance of AI.
Nvidia’s business has exploded since the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, and annual revenue has more than doubled in each of the past two fiscal years. After a massive rally, Nvidia’s stock price has dropped by more than 20% this year and was down almost 7% on Thursday.
Gerstner is concerned about the potential of a recession due to the tariffs, but is relatively bullish on Nvidia, and said the “negative impact from tariffs will be much less than in other areas.”
He said it’s key for the U.S. to stay competitive in AI. And while the company’s chips are designed domestically, they’re manufactured in Taiwan “because they can’t be fabricated in the U.S.” Higher tariffs would punish companies like Meta and Microsoft, he said.
“We’re in a global race in AI,” Gerstner said. “We can’t hamper our ability to win that race.”
Jaque Silva | Nurphoto | Getty Images
YouTube on Thursday announced new video creation tools for Shorts, its short-form video feed that competes against TikTok.
The features come at a time when TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is at risk of an effective ban in the U.S. if it’s not sold to an American owner by April 5.
Among the new tools is an updated video editor that allows creators to make precise adjustments and edits, a feature that automatically syncs video cuts to the beat of a song and AI stickers.
The creator tools will become available later this spring, said YouTube, which is owned by Google.
Along with the new features, YouTube last week said it was changing the way view counts are tabulated on Shorts. Under the new guidelines, Shorts views will count the number of times the video is played or replayed with no minimum watch time requirement.
Previously, views were only counted if a video was played for a certain number of seconds. This new tabulation method is similar to how views are counted on TikTok and Meta’s Reels, and will likely inflate view counts.
“We got this feedback from creators that this is what they wanted. It’s a way for them to better understand when their Shorts have been seen,” YouTube Chief Product Officer Johanna Voolich said in a YouTube video. “It’s useful for creators who post across multiple platforms.”
WATCH: TikTok is a digital Trojan horse, says Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass
CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th U.S. president in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
Technology stocks plummeted Thursday after President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies sparked widespread market panic.
Apple led the declines among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” group, dropping nearly 9%. The iPhone maker makes its devices in China and other Asian countries. The stock is on pace for its steepest drop since 2020.
Other megacaps also felt the pressure. Meta Platforms and Amazon fell more than 7% each, while Nvidia and Tesla slumped more than 5%. Nvidia builds its new chips in Taiwan and relies on Mexico for assembling its artificial intelligence systems. Microsoft and Alphabet both fell about 2%.
Semiconductor stocks also felt the pain, with Marvell Technology, Arm Holdings and Micron Technology falling more than 8% each. Broadcom and Lam Research dropped 6%, while Advanced Micro Devices declined more than 4% Software stocks ServiceNow and Fortinet fell more than 5% each.
The drop in technology stocks came amid a broader market selloff spurred by fears of a global trade war after Trump unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods and a range of higher duties targeting specific countries after the bell Wednesday. He said the new tariffs would be a “declaration of economic independence” for the U.S.
Companies and countries worldwide have already begun responding to the wide-sweeping policy, which included a 34% tariff on China stacked on a previous 20% tax, a 46% duty on Vietnam and a 20% levy on imports from the European Union.
China’s Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to “immediately cancel” the unilateral tariff measures and said it would take “resolute counter-measures.”
The tariffs come on the heels of a rough quarter for the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the worst period for the index since 2022. Stocks across the board have come under pressure over concerns of a weakening U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 5% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date loss to 13%.
Trump applauded some megacap technology companies for investing money into the U.S. during his speech, calling attention to Apple’s plan to spend $500 billion over the next four years.
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