Gerrit Cole‘s season is over, now that he is headed for Tommy John surgery, and the New York Yankees will have to find a way to replicate the production of a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher, someone who is likely to one day make a speech on induction day in Cooperstown.

But this is not a case of a team being blindsided by an injury. Past injuries are the most predictive indicators for future injuries, and after Cole missed nearly the first three months of last season with nerve inflammation in his right elbow, the Yankees knew the chances of losing him were heightened. Their handling of his contract situation last fall was a strong indicator of the uncertainty around Cole.

The pitcher and his agent, Scott Boras, opted out of the last four years of his contract, while asking that the Yankees exercise a $36 million option for the 2029 season, effectively adding a fifth year to his four-year, $144 million deal. Owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman declined to do so, firmly holding the line, and days later, Cole returned to the Yankees without any augmentation of his contract. While the Yankees hoped Cole’s elbow would remain functional, as Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow did following a diagnosis of a partially torn ligament in 2014, they weren’t willing to bet another $36 million on it.

But that doesn’t help them very much right now, when they have lost two starting pitchers to significant arm injuries: Before Cole went down, Luis Gil — the American League Rookie of the Year last season — suffered a lat strain this spring that will keep him sidelined for much of the 2025 season. Max Fried, signed to a $218 million contract over the winter to improve a good rotation, will now be the de facto ace, in front of right-handers Clarke Schmidt and left-hander Carlos Rodon. A month ago, there was a lot of speculation about whether Marcus Stroman would be traded, given his standing as the sixth starter behind a five-man rotation, and now Stroman is needed as the No. 4 starter.

Cashman’s habit is to be patient — to weigh internal solutions before diving into another free agent signing or trade. When Cole was sidelined last spring, the Yankees thought Will Warren might step into his spot in the rotation, and instead, Gil surprisingly emerged to fill in for Cole and was one of the league’s best starting pitchers in the first half.

This year, Warren is having a very good spring, having allowed just two hits and a run in eight innings of work, with two walks and 11 strikeouts. Warren, an eighth-round pick out of Southeast Louisiana in 2021, is the front-runner to move into the Yankees’ rotation.

Just as the Yankees continue to weigh market options for hitting help while Giancarlo Stanton is attempting to work his way back from elbow trouble, they will consider free agent possibilities such as veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson. The Yankees paid for insurance on Cole’s contract, and so they will recoup some portion of the salary they owe him; typically, that rate is about 75%. His contract still counts against their competitive balance tax total, but the insurance money will significantly offset the luxury tax they will have to pay for the addition of any replacement: The Yankees are taxed dollar for dollar, 100%, for any additional player salaries they take on. A new $5 million player costs the Yankees $10 million.

Eventually, their best alternatives, if needed, could be through the trade market, and maybe that turns out to be the Miami Marlins‘ Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner who is back after an elbow reconstruction. Under the terms of a deal he signed with the Marlins early in his career, Alcantara is making $17.3 million this year and $17.3 million next season, and there is a $21 million option in his deal for 2027.

The Marlins are not expected to contend this year and have been in a cost-cutting mode since Peter Bendix took over the team’s baseball operations after the 2023 season. Last year, the Marlins demonstrated a willingness to deal very early in the season, when they swapped batting champion Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres in the first week of May.

But the price of a trade in April or May is usually set by the team dealing away a star, and the Yankees would have to pay a big price in prospects in the spring after a rough year for their farm system, which is generally regarded as thin by other teams and ranked No. 21 in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason system rankings. Additionally, the Yankees would presumably compete against other teams if and when the Marlins look to trade Alcantara, leaving them at the same disadvantage they faced when trying to pry Garrett Crochet away from the Chicago White Sox — before Chicago dealt him to the Boston Red Sox.

Over the course of the summer, Gil could return from the injured list, and other pitchers could emerge on the trade market as some teams drift out of contention. If the Toronto Blue Jays struggle in the first half, they could be a key source for all kinds of needs, including starting pitchers. Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer might all draw interest if Toronto ever looks to rebuild and, in the Yankees’ case, is willing to deal within the division.

One or more National League West teams could end up feeding the trade market. The Padres enter this season with high expectations after nearly knocking out the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer, but if San Diego drifts behind in the playoff race, it holds two of the best impending free agents, Dylan Cease and former Yankee Michael King. Similarly, the San Francisco Giants have veteran Robbie Ray, who is under contract for $25 million this year and next, and the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Zac Gallen will become eligible for free agency in the fall.

Likewise, in the AL West, the Mariners have so far clung to their starting pitchers, like Luis Castillo, but that could change if Seattle sinks in the standings. The Astros demonstrated their willingness to be aggressive with players nearing free agency with their trade of outfielder Kyle Tucker, and if Houston hovers around .500, it could flip Framber Valdez into the market — with his years of postseason experience attractive to contenders.

The pitching market could be flush with options in a few months. And the Yankees might wait until then to make a move to cover for Cole’s absence.

New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery, the team announced Monday, ending his 2025 season before it began and leaving the club staggering from another blow as it prepares to defend its American League pennant.

The decision to have the surgery, which will sideline Cole for the 2025 season and at least part of the 2026 season, was made after seeking a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday. Cole will undergo the procedure Tuesday at the Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles. In a statement, the club said that “further updates will occur post surgery.”

Cole started two games this spring, giving up seven runs across six innings. On Thursday, he gave up six runs on five hits, including two home runs, over 2⅔ innings to the Minnesota Twins. He said he felt an “alarming” amount of pain that night into Friday morning, prompting him to notify the team and undergo imaging tests, which revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

Cole, 34, went through the same series of stressful events a year ago: Elbow pain in mid-March, tests and opinions from doctors. But the result was different. Cole was diagnosed with nerve irritation and edema and, instead of surgery, he rested and rehabbed. He made his season debut on June 19 and pitched through the World Series without a setback.

In a statement he posted on Instagram later Monday, Cole said the surgery was a “necessary next step for my career,” adding that he has “a lot left to give, and I’m fully committed to the work ahead. I’ll attack my rehab every day and support the 2025 Yankees each step of the way. I love this game, I love competing, and I can’t wait to be back on the mound — stronger than ever.”

The ace logged 124 innings over 22 starts between the regular season and playoffs, tossing at least six innings in three of his five postseason outings. He then opted to alter his offseason throwing program by starting it earlier to continue his positive momentum. He said he was “in a really good spot” compared to other years at the start of camp.

But less than a month later, his season has been declared over.

Cole’s injury is the second major blow to the Yankees’ starting rotation this spring after Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, sustained a lat strain that was expected to sideline him for at least three months.

Without the two right-handers, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt will top the Yankees’ starting rotation. Marcus Stroman, who was notably not expected to make the Opening Day rotation, is projected to slide into the No. 4 spot with Will Warren, a rookie who made his debut last season, and Carlos Carrasco, a soon-to-be-38-year-old veteran in camp as a non-roster invite, as the leading internal candidates to round out the quintet.

Other options in camp include right-hander Allan Winans, who has eight career starts on his résumé, and left-hander Brent Headrick, a starter in the minors who has never started a game in the majors.

The Yankees could also opt to sign a free agent — veterans Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among those available — or swing a trade for an established starter.

Cole, a six-time All-Star, won the 2023 AL Cy Young Award and was the runner-up two other seasons. He has tallied at least 200 innings in six of his 10 full seasons (not including last year and the COVID-shortened 2020 season). He is as close to an old-school frontline workhorse in his prime that exists in baseball. It’s why the Yankees chose to sign Cole, a lifelong Yankees fan, to a nine-year, $324 million deal with a no-trade clause in December 2019 — the largest contract given to a pitcher at the time.

The agreement included a player opt-out after last season that the Yankees could’ve voided by attaching another year and $36 million to the four years and $144 million remaining on his contract. Cole exercised the opt out, but he never became a free agent and didn’t receive the extra year. Instead, the two sides agreed to continue as if Cole didn’t opt out two days later, keeping him under contract through the 2028 season at $36 million per year.

The Yankees have insurance on Cole’s contract, which will allow them to recoup some money for the time he’s out.

GLENDALE, Ariz. — Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out seven over five impressive innings and Shohei Ohtani ripped a 118.5 mph double during the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ penultimate game of the spring schedule on Monday.

Yamamoto threw 75 pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Camelback Ranch. His fastball touched 97 mph and four of the seven strikeouts came on his splitter. The Japanese right-hander gave up one run on four hits in his final spring training start, walking one as the Dodgers went on to win 6-2.

Yamamoto is scheduled to start the Dodgers’ regular-season opener against the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo on March 18. Ohtani is expected to be the designated hitter.

Ohtani’s third extra-base hit of the spring came in the first inning and the reigning National League MVP jogged into second base for the easy double. He grounded out in the second and struck out in the fourth.

Ohtani is 6 of 17 this spring (.353) with two doubles and a homer. The 30-year-old is trying to bounce back from offseason shoulder surgery.

Rookie right-hander Roki Sasaki is scheduled to start the final spring training game for the Dodgers on Tuesday. He’s expected to start the second Dodgers-Cubs game in Japan on March 19.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.