Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
After hockey fans went many years without best-on-best international competition, the NHL’s 4 Nations Face-off will see the best players from Canada, Finland, Sweden and the United States compete in Montreal and Boston from Feb. 12-20.
Each nation has named six players to its roster, with the rest to be named closer to the tournament. All four teams have a plethora of talent, so for the first time in nearly a decade, fans will get to see the best players in the world compete against each other on the international stage.
Before the NHL season gets rolling, here is our projection of what each of the four rosters will look like:
United States
The national team development program has done a fantastic job of developing American superstars. The reigning Rocket Richard, Norris and Vezina Trophy winners and the best goaltending depth in the tournament is a good start. The Americans are well set up at every position to have success, while the other three teams have weaknesses in one position.
It really doesn’t matter which centers play the wing, but Matthews, Eichel and Dylan Larkin make the most sense to be permanent fixtures in the middle for the all-around game. The luxury of a 40-goal man (Brock Boeser) as a spare — should any of the American forwards falter — is quite something. The forwards are likely to come down to who is in the best form when it comes to decision time, as the U.S. could take any of Clayton Keller, Cole Caufield or Vincent Trocheck. The gap between those on the team and those who just missed is razor thin, and it is easy to see a scenario where any number of those players make the team due to performance or injury.
The defensemen were relatively easy to select, with the Norris Trophy winners expected to the lead the power play. Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin bring proven shutdown ability, which will be key in this tournament. Brock Faber was brilliant in his rookie season and should make the team if that performance continues into his sophomore year. Zach Werenski may or may not be healthy, potentially opening the door for Noah Hanifin or John Carlson to get in the lineup.
The toughest decision was in goal, where the Americans are loaded. To put it in perspective, one of Jake Oettinger, Thatcher Demko or Jeremy Swayman will be left off the team. Any one of those goaltenders would be better than any current Canadian option — the depth is tremendous. Demko is there now, but mystery surrounding his injury may see him lose his spot to Oettinger or Swayman if he doesn’t get healthy and perform well. Regardless of which three the Americans choose, all three are capable of stealing games, including reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck.
Canada
Canada is loaded up front with the three generational players in Crosby, McDavid and Connor Bedard. Bedard is not a lock in the eyes of Hockey Canada, but he should be on the team if he gets off to a strong start.
The toughest choice up front was Nick Suzuki over Mark Stone, with Steven Stamkos as the extra. Stone’s injuries are a factor, and he will get significant consideration if healthy. Suzuki brings a valuable two-way game, can play multiple roles and should fit nicely in Canada’s bottom six. Stamkos is the spare, but no one should be surprised if he takes a spot in the bottom six to boost the power play. Other players who likely will be considered up front are Travis Konecny and Wyatt Johnston.
Things get complicated on the blue line, with Canada having quite a few elite defensemen on the right side. Cale Makar and Devon Toews make sense as a natural top pairing. Noah Dobson had a fantastic 2023-24 season, is better defensively and has flown under the radar. Shea Theodore and Josh Morrissey make sense on the left side, with Owen Power and Morgan Rielly likely to get consideration.
Evan Bouchard is the most interesting debate, given his ascension to stardom last season. Having four members of the electric Oilers power play must be enticing, but Makar is likely to run the top unit. If Canada doesn’t see Bouchard running a power play, they may look to the likes of Alex Pietrangelo or Aaron Ekblad for their defensive game, with Bouchard as the spare. Shaping the defense will certainly be the toughest for Canada’s brain trust, given the plethora of talent available.
The goaltending is … not great. While Canada has an overabundance of talent in the skater category, they lack in goaltending. Jordan Binnington, Stuart Skinner and Adin Hill have demonstrated they are capable of winning high-pressure games. However, all three have had moments or long stretches of games where they cannot be trusted. Canada can ill afford to choose pedigree over which goaltender is playing the best given who they will face in this event. If Tristan Jarry and Joel Hofer play well to start the season, Canada will have no choice but to consider them here, as having a goalie in form is vital.
Sweden has the option to go young or give veterans one last kick at international competition; a mix of both is likely the best route.
About that blue line: Victor Hedman, Gustav Forsling, Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Dahlin is some kind of top four. The Swedish defensemen are a who’s who of Norris Trophy conversations over the past decade. Behind that group, Mattias Ekholm has been consistently steady, and Hampus Lindholm plays a key shutdown role on a great team. Their inclusion frees up Karlsson and Dahlin from penalty killing, and should allow them to thrive offensively. Jonas Brodin will be in the mix too, with Rasmus Andersson and Adam Larsson likely to get consideration for bottom-pair roles. Sweden’s depth on the blue line will be a major strength.
If Jacob Markstrom plays the way he’s capable of in New Jersey, he is likely to back up Linus Ullmark. Both goalies have been in the Vezina conversation in recent seasons, with Ullmark playing more consistently over the past few seasons. Lucas Wallstedt goes in favor of Sam Ersson, given that Sweden views him as a key piece of their international landscape in the future. If Ersson vastly outplays Wallstedt in the early season, he may get the nod, but it is unlikely either sees action in the tournament if Ullmark and Markstrom are healthy.
Finland
Finland’s strength is up front, where its center depth includes Aleksander Barkov, Sebastian Aho, Roope Hintz and Anton Lundell. Other nations have more scoring depth, but Finland has three centers who are elite two-way players, while Lundell is developing into a two-way stud.
Outside of Mikko Rantanen, Finland lacks elite scoring talent on the wings. If Patrik Laine can find his form in Montreal, he’s likely to play higher in the lineup and score. Eeli Tolvanen and Joel Armia are on the bubble up front, if players like Laine or Mattias Maccelli don’t have good starts to the season. Expect Finland to play a tight checking game and rely on their elite two-way players to win low-scoring games. This is a country that has had significant success in recent international tournaments, so they shouldn’t be overlooked despite that relative lack of pop.
On the blue line, Finland is led by Miro Heiskanen — the only true star on the back end. He will log major minutes, play in all situations and quarterback the power play. Olli Maatta and Juuso Valimaki could trade places depending on their performance. Expect Esa Lindell, Rasmus Ristolainen and Niko Mikkola to be key penalty killers and bring a physical element to the defensive zone.
Juuse Saros will be a huge part of Finland’s ability to contend in this tournament, and is a shoo-in to be the starter. Saros will likely be backed up by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Kaapo Kahkonen, but is likely to remain Finland’s starter for the entire tournament.
Four teams remain in the race for the Stanley Cup. The race for most valuable player of the NHL postseason is a bit more crowded.
Here’s the latest Conn Smythe Watch for the 2025 postseason. We asked over two dozen national writers and beat writers who are covering the conference finals for their top three MVP candidates after two rounds of play. Ballots were collected and tabulated before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Keep in mind that in the NHL, the Conn Smythe is based on a player’s performance during the entire postseason, not only the championship round. The award is voted on by an 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members.
The current MVP leader
For the second straight round, Rantanen leads the Conn Smythe Watch as he helped lead the Dallas Stars to their third straight conference finals. Through 13 postseason games, he leads all playoff scorers with 19 points, including a playoff-best nine goals.
Rantanen was the only player to appear on every ballot we surveyed from the writers. Only two voters had him anywhere but first place for the Conn Smythe — one national writer had him second, and a beat writer had Rantanen third on their ballot.
As Dallas coach Peter DeBoer put it: Rantanen is playing as if he’s “on a mission.” He was a one-man wrecking crew against his old teammates from Colorado, the team that traded him earlier this season rather than sign him to a contract extension. He did more damage against the Winnipeg Jets in the second round with a Game 1 hat trick on the road.
Rantanen cooled off a little bit later in the series, with one assist in the last three games of the series. But his accomplishments to that point made him the clear MVP in the eyes of our panelists. He’s the first player in NHL history with five three-point games through a team’s first 10 playoff games in a single postseason. He set another NHL record by either scoring or assisting on 13 consecutive goals by his team. At one point, Rantanen had factored in on 15 of 16 goals for Dallas.
One voter noted that the “crazy solo efforts he has had in a couple of games” makes him an obvious choice.
Or as another voter put it: “It’s almost hard to believe the dominance he’s displayed.”
One thing to consider about Rantanen: He has the narrative. The “revenge tour” against the Avalanche in the first round was part of a larger story about proving he’s worth his big new contract with Dallas and that he can thrive as an offensive star without Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on his team.
“When you think about his journey this year, he’s been through a lot,” DeBoer said. “There’s been a lot written about him. There’s been a lot said about him. There’s been a lot of doubters out there.”
So far, Rantanen has silenced them.
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1:03
Kevin Weekes’ players to watch in ‘epic’ Oilers-Stars showdown
Kevin Weekes lays out what to expect from the Western Conference finals rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars.
The other favorites
This is where we need to reiterate that the ballot tabulation was done before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Andersen was the clear second choice among voters before he faced the Panthers. He was voted second for playoff MVP on 47% of the ballots we surveyed.
Before Game 1, he had allowed only 12 goals in nine games for a .937 save percentage and a 1.36 goals-against average. “His stats are mind-blowing when you think about how good Washington’s offense should have been in that series,” one voter said.
After giving up five goals on 20 shots to Florida in Carolina’s Game 1 loss — not all of them his fault entirely — Andersen’s save percentage dropped to .919 while his goals-against average rose to 1.74.
It’s possible that Andersen and Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky will see their spots in this ranking flip during the series. But it was only one game, and Andersen’s numbers at home before that loss to the Panthers were quite good.
McDavid was also in the top three in the last round. In the 2024 postseason, the Edmonton star became only the second player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, as the Oilers fell in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final to the Panthers. Now, he’s trying to become the fourth player ever — and the first player since Sidney Crosby (2016-17) — to win consecutive Conn Smythe trophies.
Through 11 games, McDavid has 17 points (three goals, 14 assists). His 1.55 points-per-game average leads all players still active in the postseason. Through 11 games last season, McDavid had 21 points. But that has been one of the things that defined this Oilers’ run to the conference finals: They haven’t needed McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to drag them there on their own. Perhaps that has been reflected in the voting.
For what it’s worth, McDavid is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe on ESPN BET, at +325, ahead of Rantanen (+350) as of Tuesday night.
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Jake Oettinger: McDavid will go down as the best player of all time
Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger joins “SportsCenter” to preview Dallas’ series against Connor McDavid and the Oilers.
Making their cases
These two players received the next highest number of votes outside the top three.
It was notable that one beat writer had Oettinger first overall on their ballot, with Rantanen third. That might be a little bit of recency bias: Rantanen did most of his damage at the end of the first round and early in the second, and Oettinger was a difference-maker in all four of the Stars’ wins against Winnipeg, including Game 7, when he stopped 22 of 23 shots. As dominant as Rantanen was in Game 7 against the Avalanche in the first round, Oettinger made 25 saves and was brilliant late in that elimination game to preserve the win.
Overall, Oettinger has a .919 save percentage and a 2.47 goals-against average in 13 games for Dallas. But he has some work to do: The Stars goalie appeared on only three ballots in total, with one first- and two second-place votes.
Draisaitl is right behind McDavid in scoring with five goals and 11 assists in 11 games for the Oilers. He made the top three on four ballots, with two second-place and two third-place votes.
In his favor are two overtime goals: in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round to even their series, and then in Game 2 in Las Vegas to give the Oilers a 2-0 series lead. He also had the primary assist on Kasperi Kapanen‘s series-clinching goal in Game 5 against Vegas.
Those moments more than balance one of the lowest points of Draisaitl’s postseason, when Reilly Smith of the Golden Knights scored with 0.4 left in Game 3 on a shot that deflected off of Draisaitl’s stick.
One thing to remember with Draisaitl’s MVP case is the praise he’s receiving for his two-way game. As the Oilers have become one of the best defensive teams in the postseason, posting back-to-back shutouts to end the Golden Knights, Draisaitl could get a portion of the credit.
“You often think of those guys who are putting up a lot of points, they neglect the defensive responsibilities,” Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said before the conference finals. “Leon has never neglected his defensive responsibilities. In fact, if I was to show clips on how to backcheck and how to work, getting above the opposition, Leon would be the leading guy on all the clips that I can find, and he’s the one who does it the best.”
Some Panthers finally make the list! In fairness, that’s a tribute to the balance and depth that Florida has shown through two rounds. The team had 11 players with at least six points through their series win against the Leafs.
Bobrovsky didn’t have stellar numbers entering the conference final (.901 save percentage) thanks to four games in which he gave up four-plus goals. But Playoff Bob has emerged when he’s needed — like in the last four games of the Maple Leafs series and in Game 1 against Carolina, where he might have been the difference in that 5-2 win.
“I try to stay with one moment and not try not to think about the future or past,” he said after Game 1. “So it’s one moment, one save at a time. And that’s pretty much it.”
Marchand was tied for the team lead in points (12) after two rounds, and really made a statement in the MVP race with his Game 7 dagger against Toronto. He also had a critical Game 3 overtime winner after the Leafs took a 2-0 lead in the series.
Both Marchand and Bobrovsky showed up on two ballots. Bobrovsky earned one second-place vote.
Svechnikov was also on two ballots, both third-place votes. The Hurricanes winger was second in the postseason with eight goals after two rounds.
Slavin had two goals and two assists in 10 games, including the overtime winner in Game 1 against the Capitals. He has had an outstanding season, including a much-lauded performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off for Team USA. He also earned a ringing endorsement from Capitals coach Spencer Carbery after Carolina eliminated Washington. “How he’s not in the Norris Trophy conversation every single year, it doesn’t seem right,” the coach said. “He’s one heck of a player.”
Jones has been really strong for the Panthers, especially in their Game 7 win in Toronto. Through two rounds, Luostarinen was tied with his linemate Marchand for the team lead with 12 points, but now leads the team with 13 points after his Game 1 goal against Carolina — remarkably, his 12th point in eight road playoff games.
The NHL’s Western Conference finals matchup is set for 2025: The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are poised to square off to determine which club will represent the West in the Stanley Cup Final.
To help get you up to speed before the next round begins Wednesday on the networks of ESPN, we’re here with key intel from ESPN Research, wagering info from ESPN BET and more.
Paths to the conference finals:
Stars: Defeated Avalanche in seven, Jets in six Oilers: Defeated Kings in six, Golden Knights in five
Schedule:
Game 1: Oilers at Stars | May 21, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+) Game 2: Oilers at Stars | May 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+) Game 3: Stars at Oilers | May 25, 3 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+) Game 4: Stars at Oilers | May 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+) Game 5: Oilers at Stars | May 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+) Game 6: Stars at Oilers | May 31, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+) Game 7: Oilers at Stars | June 2, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)
The Oilers are the first Canadian team to make consecutive conference finals appearances since the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1993 and 1994. The only Canadian clubs to make consecutive appearances in the final four in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) are the Montreal Canadiens (three times), Oilers (three times) and Maple Leafs.
Edmonton advanced to the conference finals for a second straight year and for the third time in the past four postseasons, dating to 2022. The Oilers reached the conference finals in consecutive postseasons for the first time in 33 years, and fourth time in franchise history (1990-92; 1983-85; 1987-1988).
This is the 12th time in franchise history that the Oilers have reached the conference finals. The Oilers tied the Chicago Blackhawks for most final four appearances since Edmonton’s inaugural season in 1979-80.
McDavid and Zach Hyman each have six career goals in the conference finals, which is tied with Dave Hunter for sixth in franchise history. Kurri (28), Messier (23), Anderson (21), Gretzky (14) and Simpson (11) are ahead of them.
Kris Knoblauch became the first head coach in 18 years — and seventh during the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) — to reach the final four in each of his first two seasons. He joined Bob Hartley (four from 1999 to 2002), Scotty Bowman (three from 1968 to ’70), Randy Carlyle (2006, 2007), Lindy Ruff (1998, 1999), Mike Milbury (1990, 1991) and Jean Perron (1986, 1987).
Stars
The Stars advance to their third straight conference finals. They join the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-22, Chicago Blackhawks in 2013-15, Los Angeles Kings in 2012-14 and Detroit Red Wings from 2007-09 as the only teams in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) to make it to three straight conference finals.
Stars coach Peter DeBoer now is going to his eighth conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals in his coaching career, which breaks a tie with Fred Shero for third among coaches in the expansion era (since 1967-68) and trailing only Scotty Bowman (16) and Al Arbour (11).
DeBoer is the fourth coach in the expansion era to reach the conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals in each of their first three seasons with a team, joining Darryl Sutter with the Kings (2012-14), Bob Hartley with the Colorado Avalanche (1999-2001) and Scotty Bowman with the St. Louis Blues (1968-70).
The Stars won two of three games against the Oilers in the regular season, outscoring them 12-9. Jason Robertson (four goals, two assists) and Roope Hintz (goal, five assists) led the Stars with six points in those games.
Mikko Rantanen begins this series as the playoff leader in goals (nine) and points (19) through 13 games. That’s the most goals in a single postseason in his career, and he’s on pace to shatter his single-playoff points high of 25, set in the Avalanche’s 20-game run to the Cup in 2022.
BOSTON — Red Sox right-hander Walker Buehler, activated earlier in the day from the 15-day injured list, was ejected from his Tuesday start against the New York Mets in the third inning for arguing balls and strikes.
After two balls to open an at-bat by Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor stole second. Following Lindor’s slide, Buehler approached plate umpire Mike Estabrook while yelling and pointing. Buehler was quickly ejected, and moments later, Boston manager Alex Cora also was tossed.
It was the second consecutive game that the Red Sox played without Cora. On Monday, he missed the series opener to attend his daughter’s graduation from Boston College. Cora was replaced both nights by bench coach Ramon Vazquez.
Cora shouted in Estabrook’s face for a while, and first-base umpire Laz Diaz eventually stepped in to keep the two apart. Cora made contact with Diaz while continuing to verbally let loose on Estabrook. The manager then finally made his way to the clubhouse to cheers from Boston fans.
“It was weird; they were going back and forth,” Cora said of the debate between Buehler and Estabrook. “I don’t know what the exchange was, but I’ve been at this for a few years, and I was just begging, ‘Just give me a break. I’ll go out and you can throw me out, and we can keep the pitcher in the game.’ But I guess he had enough. I don’t know why.”
Brennan Bernardino replaced Buehler and inherited the count on Soto. Bernardino proceeded to walk Soto on four pitches in a scoreless game. But the bullpen held up the rest of the way, and Vazquez steered the Red Sox to a 2-0 victory.
“Everybody saw what happened. That’s baseball; we just had to stick to the plan,” Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez said on the postgame show on NESN.
Buehler had not pitched for the Red Sox since April 26 because of right shoulder issues. After that, he was scratched from his next start, and ensuing tests revealed he had bursitis in the shoulder. The 30-year-old veteran pitched a three-inning simulated game Thursday and indicated he fared well and was ready to return.
“I’m not going to talk about what he did or didn’t do. I don’t think it’s my place,” Buehler said of Estabrook. “For me, it kind of spiraled a little bit, and I said some things that he thought I shouldn’t have said and whatnot. At the end of the day, putting our team in a position like that is the only thing I really regret about that situation.”
Although his outing was short, Buehler has now started seven games during his first season with the Red Sox. He entered Tuesday’s game at 4-1 with a 4.28 ERA and 29 strikeouts against nine walks in 33⅔ innings.
“The pitch was in the strike zone,” Narvaez said of the ball call that triggered Buehler’s response in the third. “He was fighting with the guy behind the plate. He was saying, ‘Hey, that was in the middle.’ And the guy was saying, ‘No.’ And it was back and forth. Buehler is an emotional guy, he’s a competitor. It was just the emotions of the game.”
Diaz, the crew chief, told a pool reporter after the game that Buehler was tossed because he stepped off the mound toward Estabrook to argue a call.
“He can say stuff from the mound. But once he comes off the mound, he’s leaving his position to argue balls and strikes,” Diaz said. “Once anybody leaves their position to argue balls and strikes, that’s an immediate ejection.”
In the end, the Red Sox won for the second time in as many nights under Vazquez’s tutelage. And they did so with six relievers combining to complete the shutout.
Prior to Tuesday’s contest, Boston optioned right-hander Nick Burdi to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding move to make room for Buehler. Burdi, 32, made two appearances and pitched 2⅓ scoreless innings for the Red Sox.
A member of the Los Angeles Dodgers organization until signing with Boston as a free agent in December, Buehler has undergone two Tommy John surgeries during his career. The latter procedure, in 2022, caused him to sit out the 2023 season and make his 2024 debut that May.
Buehler last made it through a full season without issue in 2021, when he registered a career-high 33 starts to lead the major leagues that season. He went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 2021 and was selected to the All-Star Game for a second time.
The Dodgers selected Buehler with the 24th pick of the 2015 MLB draft.
Information from Field Level Media and the Associated Press was used in this report.