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A long-running measure of consumer confidence has slumped to levels last seen at the start of the year following warnings of “tough choices” ahead in the looming budget.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index fell seven points in September to minus 20, with significant drops in predictions for personal finances and the general economy over the coming year.

The report’s authors suggested it was “not encouraging news” for the new government, which has made growing the economy its top priority.

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But within weeks of taking the post of chancellor, Rachel Reeves – followed by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer – moved to warn of a legacy £22bn “black hole” in the public finances and said it would result in a painful budget on 30 October.

Among measures already taken include cuts to winter fuel payments, leaving up to 10 million pensioners up to £300 worse off, and inflation-busting public sector pay settlements.

Tax rises and spending cuts are widely expected in next month’s statement to MPs though The Times reported on Friday that a decision by the Bank of England to slow a programme of loss-making bond sales would leave Ms Reeves £10bn better off than she had anticipated.

It added that she was still expected to push forward with her budget plans anyway as a signal of her commitment to fiscal discipline.

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The latest snapshot on the public finances, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed net borrowing of £13.7bn during August.

Its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.

“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”

Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.

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Data released separately on Friday showed a 1% rise in retail sales volumes during August in the wake of weakness, mostly blamed on poor weather, over the previous couple of months.

The ONS said that the increase was driven by supermarket sales, as demand for BBQ food and drinks rose due to the arrival of some sunshine over the key holiday month.

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UK economy flatlines again

It also credited discounting by clothing retailers.

The data chimes with the latest updates from big retailers, including Next and B&Q’s owner, which have spoken of weak demand for so-called big ticket items such as home furnishings and kitchens respectively.

GfK’s closely-watched survey showed expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months fell by 12 points to -27, while the forecast for personal finances was down nine points to -3.

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Commenting on its key measures, including the headline figure, consumer insights director at GfK Neil Bellamy said: “These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government.”

He added: “Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend.

“Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the budget decisions on October 30.”

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

Donald Trump has revealed a fresh round of trade tariffs on several key sectors, with the most punitive rate likely to affect UK businesses.

The US president used his Truth Social account last night to confirm that a new 100% tariff would apply to any branded or patented pharmaceutical product from 1 October.

He said that to escape the clutches of that duty, a company must have already broken ground on a new US factory.

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From the same date, a 50% tariff would be applied to all imported kitchen and bathroom cabinets while upholstered furniture faced a 30% rate.

A 25% tariff faced shipments of heavy trucks.

The president did not confirm whether the duties would be lower for nations to have agreed trade deals with his administration, including the UK and European Union.

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Each faces a blanket 10% and 15% rate on their exports respectively at the moment.

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It is likely, however, that the new duties will be applied in line with other, higher, sectoral tariffs that are currently in place above those agreed rates.

“The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said in his post.

The lack of detail around the application of the planned new tariff rules means further uncertainty for companies potentially affected.

Shares in pharmaceutical firms listed in Asia fell sharply overnight as industry bodies rushed to seek clarification on the new rules.

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AstraZeneca – the UK’s most valuable listed company – already has vast US manufacturing and research operations.

In July, as the threat of tariffs loomed large, it revealed plans for a further $50bn investment by 2030.

US figures show the country imported $233bn of drugs and medicines from abroad last year.

A 100% tariff rate, even on some of those shipments, risk ramping up the cost of US healthcare.

By imposing the 100% tariff rate, Mr Trump wants to bring prices down through encouraging domestic production.

US industry groups lined up to oppose the planned measures.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said non-US companies were continuing to announce hundreds of billions of dollars in new US. investments. “Tariffs risk those plans,” it said.

The US Chamber of Commerce urged a U-turn on any truck tariffs.

It said the five nations to be worst affected – Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland – were “allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to US national security.”.

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Many small firms reliant on Jaguar Land Rover have ‘weeks left’ before damage ‘untenable’

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Many small firms reliant on Jaguar Land Rover have 'weeks left' before damage 'untenable'

Small firms reliant on the production-halted British car maker Jaguar Land Rover, “may have at best a week of cashflow left to support themselves” with “urgent” action needed to support businesses.

Liam Byrne, the head of the influential Business and Trade Committee of MPs, wrote to Chancellor Rachel Reeves with the warning after meeting with the car maker’s suppliers.

“Larger firms, we heard, may begin to seriously struggle within a fortnight – and many are simply unclear how they will pay payroll costs at the end of October,” he said

“In short, many firms have merely “weeks left” before the financial impact on them becomes untenable and causes critical damage to key elements of the automotive supply chain.”

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Since 31 August, production has been halted across the car-making supply chain, with staff off work as a result of the attack.

More than 33,000 people work directly for JLR in the UK, many of them on assembly lines in the West Midlands, the largest of which is in Solihull, and a plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

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An estimated 200,000 more are employed by several hundred companies in the supply chain, who have faced business interruption with their largest client out of action.

Calls for government financial support had been growing, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday afternoon said, “I haven’t got an outcome here to give to you today”.

A partial restart

It comes as JLR announced some of its IT systems are back online after being hit by a cyber attack late last month though production is still not expected to start again until 1 October at the earliest.

“The foundational work of our recovery programme is firmly underway,” a company spokesperson said in a statement.

As part of the partial restart, supplier payments can begin again.

“We have significantly increased IT processing capacity for invoicing,” the statement said. “We are now working to clear the backlog of payments to our suppliers as quickly as we can.”

The supply of parts to customers across the world can also now recommence.

After a workaround was reached on Tuesday to allow cars to move to buyers without the usual online registration, the financial system to process wholesale vehicles is back online.

“We are able to sell and register vehicles for our clients faster, delivering important cash flow”, the company said.

“Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues and our retailers. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.”

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Farage and Tice right to scrutinise one of Bank of England’s most radical monetary experiments in history

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Farage and Tice right to scrutinise one of Bank of England's most radical monetary experiments in history

There was some speculation, when it emerged that Nigel Farage was heading to Threadneedle Street to see the Bank of England governor, that he was about to “do a Trump”.

You might recall, if you follow American politics, how the US president has been, for want of a better word, trolling the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, threatening to fire him if he didn’t cut interest rates. Might Mr Farage and Reform be about to do the same thing in the UK, raising deep (and, for economists, scary) questions about the independence of the central bank?

The short answer, as far as anyone can tell following today’s meeting, is: no. Instead, Mr Farage and his fellow Reform MP Richard Tice enjoyed a relatively cordial meeting with the governor, where they discussed the intricacies of quantitative easing, the Bank’s reserves policies and even cryptocurrency – a slightly unexpected addition to the agenda which might reflect the fact that Reform is hoping to raise lots of campaign funds from crypto dudes.

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The main Bank-related issue Reform has been campaigning on – Mr Tice in particular – comes back to something seemingly arcane but certainly important. As you may be aware, in recent years, the Bank of England has, alongside its interest rate policy, been engaged in something called quantitative easing (QE). QE is complex, but it boils down to this: in an effort to boost the economy, the Bank bought up a lot of government bonds and they now sit awkwardly in its balance sheet. In recent months, the Bank has begun to reverse QE (quantitative tightening) – selling off billions of pounds of bonds.

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Anyway, reach deeper into the arcane mechanism of how QE works and something interesting leaps out. Two things, actually. First, as part of QE, in order to get hold of those government bonds, the Bank created “reserves” – sort of bank-account-at-the-Bank-of-England – for the high street banks from whom it bought them.

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Those reserves earn interest at the Bank’s official interest rate. At the time of QE, the rate was near zero, so no one spent much time thinking about reserves. But since then, rates went up to 5.25%, and are now at 4%, and hence the Bank has recently been paying out a hefty amount – tens of billions of pounds – in interest to high street banks.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and deputy leader Richard Tice speaking to the media outside the Bank Of England in central London. Pic: PA
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and deputy leader Richard Tice speaking to the media outside the Bank Of England in central London. Pic: PA

This, says Richard Tice, is an abomination. In the last Reform manifesto, he said the Bank should stop paying out those reserves. Which, on the face of it, sounds perfectly sensible. However, there are a few catches.

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The first is that while in theory it might help recoup billions of pounds of public money, that money has to come from somewhere, and in this case, it would come from high street banks. In other words, this is, in all but name, a very big bank tax. The Bank of England’s point, when asked about all this, is that if anyone is going to do something like that, it should really be the government, since it’s rightly in charge of taxing and spending.

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The other catch is that Bank of England reserves systems are desperately complex. Changing the way they’re structured is a delicate operation. Running a coach and horses through it, as Mr Tice is suggesting, could have all sorts of unintended consequences, including undermining confidence in UK economic policy.

This, by the way, is not the only thing Reform is unhappy about: they also think the Bank should slow down its quantitative tightening programme.

But the point of all the above is that while there are some big question marks about the particular idea Reform is proposing, the worst thing of all would be not to discuss this as publicly as possible.

The worst outcome of all would be for the government and Bank to take certain decisions which affect billions of pounds of public money with only the merest of scrutiny, save at the Treasury Select Committee, whose sessions rarely get much attention beyond the financial pages. And that is more or less the situation we’ve had for the past decade and a half.

The Bank of England has introduced one of the most radical monetary experiments in history, which may or may not have been a success or a failure, but few outside of the City are even aware of it. Mr Tice’s policy platform may be flawed, but his overarching point – that this stuff desperately needs more scrutiny – is quite right.

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