The UK’s public sector debt has hit 100% of the value of the country’s annual economic output for the first time since the 1960s, according to official figures released ahead of the chancellor’s maiden budget.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, in a preliminary estimate, that the figure had risen from the 99.3% figure recorded the previous month.
Wider data revealed by the number crunchers showed that the government borrowed £13.7bn in August, up by £2bn on the figure expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
It meant that borrowing for the current financial year, at £64.1bn, was £6bn higher than the OBR had forecast.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.
“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”
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The official figures were released against a backdrop of spending cuts, including the removal of universal winter fuel payments to pensioners, and public sector pay settlements to end strike action ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget on 30 October.
Along with the prime minister, she has warned of tough choices ahead to fill what they call a £22bn black hole in the public finances left behind by the Conservatives.
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Chancellor speaks to Sky News
News that government debt hit 100% of economic output for the first time in decades only intensifies the challenge facing Ms Reeves and her Treasury team at a time when economic growth has slowed, with consumer confidence said to be suffering due to warnings of tough budget choices ahead.
The Times reported that a decision by the Bank of England to slow its sale of financial crisis-era bonds would provide a £10bn boost to her coffers through lower losses, but added that she was determined to double down on a course of fiscal discipline despite intense pressure to overturn the winter fuel payment decision.
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Union puts Labour under pressure
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “When we came into office, we inherited an economy that wasn’t working for working people.
“Today’s data shows the highest August borrowing on record outside the pandemic. Debt is 100% of GDP, the highest level since the 1960s.
“Because of the £22bn black hole in our public finances we have inherited this year alone, we are taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations of our economy, so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.”
Ms Reeves has warned taxes will go up in the budget, though she has ruled out increases in rates of income, corporation and value-added taxes due to the party’s election promises not to tax “working people”.
Inheritance and capital gains taxes could be in the firing line and there is also speculation that falling fuel costs will allow her to overturn the 5p-per-litre fuel duty cut introduced by Rishi Sunak at the height of the cost of living crisis.
John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said of the milestone: “Taxpayers will be hoping that this will be a wake up call for Rachel Reeves ahead of the budget.
“With the debt now matching the size of the economy, this needs to be a watershed moment for all politicians, but particularly the chancellor, to recognise that the situation is unsustainable.
“Getting a grip of the national debt should now be a top priority for the government, with future generations set to be hit hard if it follows the big spending philosophy of its predecessors.”
Following his remarks, the value of the pound dropped and government borrowing costs rose, via the interest rate on both 10 and 30-year bonds.
Although market fluctuations are common, there was a reaction following Sir Keir’s comments in the Commons – signalling concern among investors of potential changes within the Treasury.
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PM refuses to rule out tax rises
Sterling dropped to a week-long low, hitting $1.35 for the first time since 24 June. The level, however, is still significantly higher than the vast majority of the past year, having come off the near four-year peak reached yesterday.
While a drop against the euro, took the pound to €1.15, a rate not seen since mid-April in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Meanwhile, the interest rate investors charge to lend money to the government, called the gilt yield, rose on both long-term (30-year) and ten-year bonds.
The UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt yield – so-called for the gilt edges that historically lined the paper they were printed on – rose to 4.67%, a high last recorded on 9 June.
And 30-year gilt yields hit 5.45%, a level not seen since 29 May.
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Ms Reeves has committed to self-imposed rules to reduce debt and balance the budget. Speculation around her future led investors to question the government’s commitment to balancing the books – and how they would do that.
The questions over her future came after the government scrapped the core money-saving component of its welfare bill, which had been intended to reduce spending in order to meet fiscal rules.
Tesla’s woes have deepened as latest production and deliveries figures showed a greater fall than expected.
A total of 384,122 Teslas were delivered from April to June this year, a 13.5% drop on the same period last year and the second quarter of slumping output.
Wall Street analysts had expected Tesla to report about 1,000 more deliveries.
It’s bad news for Tesla chief executive Elon Musk in a week of attacks from President Donald Trump on him personally, as well as his companies.
Mr Musk found himself on the wrong side of Mr Trump and the majority of US congresspeople in his opposition to the so-called big beautiful bill approved by the US Senate.
His criticism of the inevitable debt rises the bill will result in led Mr Trump threatening to end subsidies for Mr Musk’s numerous businesses and to deport him.
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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk
His role as founder and chief executive of numerous businesses has made him the world’s richest man, according to Forbes.
As well as Tesla, Mr Musk founded space technology company SpaceX and Starlink. He also acquired the social media company Twitter, which he rebranded X.
It was the poor performance of Tesla that pushed him out of full-time politics and back to the Tesla offices.
After months of share price tumbles and protests at Tesla showrooms, sales drops and car defacings, Musk left his work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Not everyone viewed the figures as negative.
Analysts at financial services firm Wedbush said: “Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD [full self-driving], robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first.”
After a 5% share price fall earlier this week when Mr Musk strayed back into political matters, Tesla stock rose 4.5% on Wednesday.
The latest financial details for Tesla will be published later this month.
In the first three months of the year, Tesla’s profits fell by 71% to $409m (£306.77m) from $1.39bn (£1.04bn). Revenues were also well below forecasts, dropping 9% to $19.3bn (£14.5bn).
It’s a threat that will send a shiver down the spine of Downing Street and shake the City of London to its core.
Even the notion that AstraZeneca (AZ) – the UK’s most valuable listed company – is thinking of upping sticks and switching its stock market listing to America is a frightening prospect on many levels.
After all, if your biggest firm departs for Wall Street, what message does it send to an already bruised London stock market that has struggled to find its way since the UK’s vote to leave the European Union?
The timing of the report in The Times that Pascal Soriot, the pharmaceutical company’s long-standing chief executive, is considering his own Brexit for the company, will not be lost on anyone.
The Treasury is under severe strain and the Starmer government, apparently focused on compromise given its welfare reform U-turns, bruised.
Ministers have been scrambling to get the support of business back, after a budget tax raid that has added to the cost of employing people in the UK, by launching a series of strategies to demonstrate a growth-led focus.
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Mr Soriot’s reported shift is the culmination of years of frustration over UK tax rates and support for business – though it could also remove a focus on his own remuneration as the highest-paid director of a UK-listed firm.
Image: Pascal Soriot has run AZ since 2012
AZ has its own gripes with Labour.
In January, the company cancelled a planned £450m investment in a vaccine factory on Merseyside, accusing the government of reneging on the previous Conservative administration’s offer of financial aid.
At the same time, it has been rebuilding its presence in the United States.
That speaks to not only a home market snub but also the election of a US president intent on protecting, as he sees it, America-based companies and jobs.
Donald Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on all pharma imports.
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How Trump’s tariffs are biting
AZ has already promised a $3.5bn (£2.6bn) investment in US manufacturing by the end of 2026.
It has also rejoined the leading US drug lobby group, bolstering its voice in Washington DC.
There are sound reasons for bolstering its US footprint; more than 40% of AZ’s revenues are made in the world’s largest economy. Greater US production would also shield it from any duties imposed by Mr Trump and any MAGA successor.
Since Brexit, complaints among UK stock market constituents have been of low valuations compared to peers (with a weak pound also leaving them vulnerable to takeovers), weaker access to capital and poor appetite for new listings.
Wise, the money transfer firm, became the latest UK name to say that it intends to move its primary listing to the US just last month.
Image: Shein had been exploring a London flotation until it was blocked. Pic: Europa Press via AP
If followed through, it would tread in the footsteps of Flutter Entertainment and the building equipment suppler CRH – just two big names to have already left.
London was snubbed for a listing by its former chip-designing resident ARM back in 2023.
An initial public offering by Shein, the controversial fast fashion firm, had offered the prospect of the biggest flotation for the UK in many years but that was blocked by the Chinese authorities.
Efforts to bolster the City’s appeal, such as through the Financial Conduct Authority’s overhaul of listing rules and the creation of pension megafunds to aid access to capital, have also been boosted in recent months by investors in US companies taking a second look at comparatively low valuations in Europe.
Market analysts have charted a cash spread away from the US as a hedge against an erratic White House.
The Times report suggested that Mr Soriot’s plans were likely to face some opposition from members of the board, in addition to the UK government.
Image: The City of London has faced a series of challenges since Brexit Pic: iStock
AstraZeneca has not commented on the story. Crucially, it did not deny it.
But a government spokesperson said: “Through our forthcoming Life Sciences Sector Plan, we are launching a 10-year mission to harness the life sciences sector to drive long-term economic growth and build a stronger, prevention-focused NHS.
“We have already started delivering on key actions, from investing up to £600m in the Health Data Research Service alongside Wellcome, through to committing over £650m in Genomics England and up to £354m in Our Future Health.
“This is clear evidence of our commitment and confidence in life sciences as a driver of both economic growth and better health outcomes.”
Governments don’t comment on stories such as these, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the departure of your biggest firm by market value is not the message a government laser-focused on growth can afford to allow.