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The UK’s public sector debt has hit 100% of the value of the country’s annual economic output for the first time since the 1960s, according to official figures released ahead of the chancellor’s maiden budget.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, in a preliminary estimate, that the figure had risen from the 99.3% figure recorded the previous month.

Wider data revealed by the number crunchers showed that the government borrowed £13.7bn in August, up by £2bn on the figure expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Money latest: Millions already buying mince pies ahead of Christmas

It meant that borrowing for the current financial year, at £64.1bn, was £6bn higher than the OBR had forecast.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.

“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”

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The official figures were released against a backdrop of spending cuts, including the removal of universal winter fuel payments to pensioners, and public sector pay settlements to end strike action ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget on 30 October.

Along with the prime minister, she has warned of tough choices ahead to fill what they call a £22bn black hole in the public finances left behind by the Conservatives.

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Chancellor speaks to Sky News

News that government debt hit 100% of economic output for the first time in decades only intensifies the challenge facing Ms Reeves and her Treasury team at a time when economic growth has slowed, with consumer confidence said to be suffering due to warnings of tough budget choices ahead.

The Times reported that a decision by the Bank of England to slow its sale of financial crisis-era bonds would provide a £10bn boost to her coffers through lower losses, but added that she was determined to double down on a course of fiscal discipline despite intense pressure to overturn the winter fuel payment decision.

Read more:
Winter fuel payments – are you still eligible?
Which tax rises could Labour introduce?

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Union puts Labour under pressure

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “When we came into office, we inherited an economy that wasn’t working for working people.

“Today’s data shows the highest August borrowing on record outside the pandemic. Debt is 100% of GDP, the highest level since the 1960s.

“Because of the £22bn black hole in our public finances we have inherited this year alone, we are taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations of our economy, so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.”

Ms Reeves has warned taxes will go up in the budget, though she has ruled out increases in rates of income, corporation and value-added taxes due to the party’s election promises not to tax “working people”.

Inheritance and capital gains taxes could be in the firing line and there is also speculation that falling fuel costs will allow her to overturn the 5p-per-litre fuel duty cut introduced by Rishi Sunak at the height of the cost of living crisis.

John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said of the milestone: “Taxpayers will be hoping that this will be a wake up call for Rachel Reeves ahead of the budget.

“With the debt now matching the size of the economy, this needs to be a watershed moment for all politicians, but particularly the chancellor, to recognise that the situation is unsustainable.

“Getting a grip of the national debt should now be a top priority for the government, with future generations set to be hit hard if it follows the big spending philosophy of its predecessors.”

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Nvidia signals strong AI chip demand despite DeepSeek threat

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Nvidia signals strong AI chip demand despite DeepSeek threat

Nvidia has signalled no drop in demand for its flagship chips among big artificial intelligence (AI) spenders despite the low-cost challenge posed by Chinese rival DeepSeek.

The leading AI chipmaker said it expected Blackwell sales to continue to grow after its latest earnings beat market expectations.

Nvidia forecast revenue of around $43bn (£34bn) for its first quarter after achieving a figure of $39.3bn (£31bn) over its last three months – up 12% from the previous quarter and 78% from one year ago.

Just a month ago, its shares took a hammering when it emerged DeepSeek‘s primary chatbot, which uses lower-cost chips, had become the most popular free application on Apple’s App Store across the US.

Nvidia’s shares lost almost $600bn in market value in a day.

It also prompted investors to question whether the AI-led stock market rally of recent years was overblown.

There was anxiety ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report though shares only fell fractionally in after-hours dealing.

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Market analysts suggested demand from Microsoft, Amazon and other heavyweight tech companies racing to build
AI infrastructure remained robust, given Nvidia’s revenue guidance even though the bulk of it is accounted for through data centres.

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Who will win the AI battle?

Read more: What is DeepSeek?

Nvidia founder Jensen Huang said Nvidia has ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell and achieved “billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter”.

“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law – increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter.

“AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionise the largest industries,” he said.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the report: “The longer-term investment case for the driver of the AI train is looking difficult to pick holes in, with Meta’s $200bn just one of the latest mega investments in data centres to be unveiled recently.

“By virtue of scale, growth may be slowing a little but upgrades to analysts full-year numbers can be expected off the back of today’s results. At a around 30x forward earnings, the valuation still doesn’t look overcooked.”

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Who’s given Ukraine most aid – and does it have enough rare earth metals to ‘pay back’ US?

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Who's given Ukraine most aid - and does it have enough rare earth metals to 'pay back' US?

How much have America, Britain and the rest paid Ukraine in aid since the Russian invasion? And do they have any hope of getting money back in return?

These are big questions, and they’re likely to dominate much of the discussion in the coming months as Donald Trump pressurises his Ukrainian counterparts for a deal on ending the war. So let’s go through some of the answers.

First off, the question of who has given the most money to Ukraine rather depends on what you’re counting.

War latest: Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US – source

If you’re looking solely at the amount of military support extended since 2022, the US has provided €64bn, compared with €62bn from European nations (including the UK).

But now include other types of support, such as humanitarian and financial assistance, and European support exceeds American (€132bn in total, compared with €114bn from the US).

Divide Europe into its constituent nations, on the other hand, and none of them individually comes anywhere close to the US quantity of aid.

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That being said, simple cash numbers aren’t an especially good measure of a country’s ability to pay.

Look at US support as a percentage of gross domestic product and it comes to 0.5% of GDP. That’s almost precisely the same as the aid from the UK.

Looked at through this prism, it’s other countries which are clearly the most generous: Denmark, Estonia and much of the Baltics providing around 2% of their GDP – a far bigger amount versus their ability to finance it.

Still, compare the aid this time around with previous amounts spent in other conflicts and they are nowhere close.

Lend-Lease during WWII, aid during the Vietnam and Korean Wars, and even the first Gulf War, involved significantly bigger outlays than currently being spent on Ukraine.

That goes not just for the US but also for the UK, Germany and Japan, all of which provided more aid to the Kuwaitis and other affected nations during the first Gulf War.

Even so, it’s clear that the US and others have put significant resources towards Ukraine.

President Trump has been talking recently about recouping $500bn from Ukraine in the form of revenues from mining rare earth metals.

This is, on the face of it, slightly odd. Rare earth metals represent an obscure corner of the periodic table and play a small if important role in electronics and military manufacturing.

The entire market is small – making it essentially implausible that, even if Ukraine suddenly produced the majority of the world’s supply, the president could expect that amount of revenue back in return.

More to the point, while there are a couple of rare earth deposits in Ukraine, they have languished, unexploited, for years. They are so expensive to mine no-one has worked out how to extract the elements and make a profit at the same time.

And even if you presumed they could do, Ukraine would still be a relative minnow in global rare earths production.

Map of Ukraine minerals

Read more:
What minerals does Ukraine have?

Assuming, as one probably should, that Donald Trump didn’t just mean rare earths, but was talking more broadly about “critical minerals” (the two are different things, but let’s not get too pedantic here), there are also one or two other promising mine sites in the country.

There is an old, shuttered alumina plant seized from Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. There is a large lithium resource which could, if all went well, be the single biggest lithium mine in Europe.

Yet even taking this into account, Ukraine would still be a relatively small player in global lithium. Not nothing – but not world changing either. Certainly not enough to generate the hundreds of billions of dollars Mr Trump is seeking.

Then again, Ukraine has other resources at its disposal too: vast seams of coal in the Donbas, large iron ore reserves in the south of the country.

Both of these are in or close to Russian occupied areas – which might, from the Ukrainians’ perspective, actually be the point. Old fashioned as this stuff is, it does actually generate significant revenue. It might be Donald Trump’s best hope for some payback.

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Post Office scandal: 21 ‘Capture’ cases now being investigated for miscarriages of justice

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Post Office scandal: 21 ‘Capture’ cases now being investigated for miscarriages of justice

The number of convictions linked to a second Post Office IT scandal being investigated for miscarriages of justice – has more than doubled, Sky News has learned.

Twenty-one Capture cases have now been submitted to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) for review.

Before Christmas, it was around eight.

They relate to the Capture computing software, which was used in Post Office branches in the 1990s before the infamous faulty Horizon system was introduced.

Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly accused of stealing after Horizon software caused false shortfalls in branch accounts between 1999 and 2015.

A report last year found that there was a reasonable likelihood that the Capture accounting system, used from the early 1990s until 1999, was also responsible for shortfalls.

If the CCRC finds significant new evidence or legal arguments not previously heard before, cases can be referred back to the Court of Appeal.

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Lawyer for victims, Neil Hudgell from Hudgell Solicitors, says the next steps for the Capture cases and the CCRC are still “some months away”.

He said he is also hopeful that the first cases could be referred to the Court of Appeal before the end of this year.

Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/v with lawyer for victims of the Capture IT system, Neil Hudgell from Hudgell Solicitors
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Lawyer Neil Hudgell described victims of the Capture IT system as ‘hideously damaged people’


“Certainly we will certainly be lobbying,” he said. “The CCRC will be lobbying, the advisory board will be lobbying any interested parties, that these are hideously damaged people of advancing years who need some peace of mind and the quicker that can happen the better.”

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In December the government said it would offer ‘redress’ to Post Office Capture software victims

‘We didn’t talk about it’

Among those submitted to the CCRC – Pat Owen’s Capture case was the first.

Her family have kept her 1998 conviction for stealing from her post office branch a secret for 26 years.

Juliet Shardlow daughter of Pat Owen and Adele
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Juliet Shardlow shows Sky News paperwork which could explain discrepancies logged by Capture

Speaking to Sky News they have opened up for the first time about what happened to her.

Pat was a former sub-postmistress, who was found guilty and given a two-year suspended sentence.

She died in 2003 from heart failure.

Pat Owen and husband David
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
David Owen and his wife Pat in happier times

Her daughters describe her as coming home from court after her conviction “a different woman”.

“We didn’t talk about it,” said Juliet Shardlow. “We didn’t talk about it amongst ourselves as a family, we didn’t talk about it with the extended family.

“Our extended family don’t know.”

Pat Owen's daughter Juliet Shardlow
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Juliet Shardlow said her mum Pat was a different person after her conviction

David Owen, Pat’s husband, said she lost a lot of weight after her conviction and at 62 years old “looked like an old gal of 90”.

Capture evidence never heard in court

Pat’s family kept all the documents from her case safe for over two decades and now a key piece of evidence may turn the tide on her conviction, and potentially help others.

A document summarising the findings of an IT expert described the computer Pat used as having “a faulty motherboard”.

It also stated that this “would have produced calculation errors and may have been responsible for the discrepancies subsequently identified by Post Office Counters’ Security and Investigation team.”

Read more from Sky News:
Sub-postmasters: ‘Still going through hell’
Compensation for victims of Capture
Calls on Fujitsu for compensation

The computer expert was due to give evidence in Pat Owen’s defence at court as part of her trial – but failed to turn up on the day.

The family say they never found out exactly why he didn’t show up at court.

David said there was a computer all set up in the courtroom for the expert to use to show malfunctions.

Husband David Owen
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
David Owen said his wife Pat never expected to lose her court case

“I heard, now I can’t remember who from, that he’d done work for the Post Office,” he said.

“If he turned up to be a witness in court for us to he wouldn’t get any more work from the Post Office.”

Despite best efforts the expert has never been tracked down. The Post Office has declined to comment.

David also described how his wife never expected to lose her case.

“She was so confident. She knew she didn’t do anything wrong,” he said.

“But when the guilty verdict came out she actually fell to her knees in the dock crying her eyes out shaking.”

He said the judge then asked if he wanted to say anything, and David said he got up in court and spoke at length about his wife’s innocence.

The government announced in December that they will be setting up a redress scheme for Capture victims, similar to Horizon.

So far around 100 people who suffered after being accused of stealing from their branch, while using Capture, could be eligible for redress.

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