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This election is about the big and the small – as small as anything can be in the USA.

The big number first – our Sky News poll tracker now gives Kamala Harris a three-point lead over Donald Trump nationwide.

That number has been getting bigger – it looks like we can now see a bounce from last week’s debate, one that is being sustained.

And it could get bigger still: bear in mind that our poll tracker includes polls conducted pre-debate.

As they are replaced in our tracker by new polls, her lead may improve.

Three points are substantial: for context, a week after the Biden-Trump debate, widely seen as a disaster for Biden, Trump was polling 3.3 points higher than Biden – a similar gap.

So why aren’t we talking about Trump being in as much trouble?

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Some of that has to do with the narrative and momentum around Biden at the time, especially the idea that things would only get worse.

But Trump also has some strengths that Biden did not.

First, as we talked about earlier this week, Harris needs a big nationwide polling lead to ensure she wins a small number of swing states.

Three points are no guarantee of that.

And that’s the other point about the small.

This is about specific voters in specific places, with different demographics and economies.

There are three geographic groupings for the swing states – the southeast (Georgia and North Carolina), the northeast (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), and the southwest (Nevada and Arizona).

Ipsos has done polling around the issues that voters in those three regions think are the most important, though.

They’re strikingly similar, enough to aggregate them together.

Democracy means “threats to democracy and the dangers of extreme polarisation” and the economy will mean different things in the rust belt northeast vs the agricultural southeast.

But there are clear priorities.

And those swing state voters have clear ideas about which candidate can best deal with those issues.

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There are some local variations though.

The southwest rates Trump even higher on the economy and immigration, and the southeast thinks he would be better for democracy.

That’s the good news for Donald Trump.

In the smaller places where the votes really matter, he’s seen as the best candidate on the issues that really matter.

But let’s finish with another big-picture finding: Harris’s net favourability continues to be way ahead of Trump’s.

So, big vs small: how they interact will decide the election.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin wants to meet – and that he and Barack Obama ‘probably’ like each other

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Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin wants to meet - and that he and Barack Obama 'probably' like each other

Donald Trump says a meeting is being set up between himself and Vladimir Putin – and that he and Barack Obama “probably” like each other.

Republican US president-elect Mr Trump spoke to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Thursday, saying Russian president Mr Putin “wants to meet, and we are setting it up”.

“He has said that even publicly and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess,” Mr Trump said.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Friday there was a “mutual desire” to set up a meeting – but added no details had been confirmed yet and that there may be progress once Mr Trump is inaugurated on 20 January.

“Moscow has repeatedly declared its openness to contacts with international leaders, including the US president, including Donald Trump,” Mr Peskov added.

“What is required is a mutual desire and political will to conduct dialogue and resolve existing problems through dialogue. We see that Mr Trump also declares his readiness to resolve problems through dialogue. We welcome this. There are still no specifics, we proceed from the mutual readiness for the meeting.”

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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in July 2017. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in July 2017. Pic: AP

Trump on Obama: ‘We just got along’

Mr Trump also made some lighter remarks regarding a viral exchange between himself and former Democrat President Barack Obama at Jimmy Carter’s funeral on Thursday.

The pair sat together for the late president’s service in Washington DC on Thursday, and could be seen speaking for several minutes as the remaining mourners filed in before it began.

Mr Obama was seen nodding as his successor spoke before breaking into a grin.

Asked about the exchange, Mr Trump said: “I didn’t realise how friendly it looked.

“I said, ‘boy, they look like two people that like each other’. And we probably do.

“We have a little different philosophies, right? But we probably do. I don’t know. We just got along. But I got along with just about everybody.”

The amicable exchange comes after years of criticising each other in the public eye; it was Mr Trump who spread the so-called “birther” conspiracy theory about Mr Obama in 2011, falsely asserting that he was not born in the United States.

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Insults continued for years, with Mr Obama famously dedicating much of his final White House Correspondents’ Dinner speech in 2016 to jokes at his political rival’s expense.

Mr Trump has repeatedly attacked the Obamas, saying the former president was “ineffective” and “terrible” and calling former first lady Michelle Obama “nasty” as recently as October last year.

On Kamala Harris’s campaign trail last year, Mr Obama said Mr Trump was a “78-year-old billionaire who has not stopped whining about his problems since he rode down his golden escalator nine years ago”, while the former first lady said that “the consequences of him ever being president again are brutally serious.”

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LA wildfires: One daughter’s haunting account of her father’s fatal decision to stay in his home

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LA wildfires: One daughter's haunting account of her father's fatal decision to stay in his home

“He was asleep in his bed, where he still is right now, as I wait on the coroner.”

The haunting words of Kimiko Nickerson stopped us in our tracks.

Her father Rodney, 82, was sure the fire wouldn’t reach his home in Altadena. He was wrong.

The inferno cut through this quiet suburb north of Los Angeles at an alarming rate, its path unpredictable.

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She said: “He just didn’t want to evacuate. He’s been living here since 1968, and he’s been in Altadena my whole life.

“Like all of us on this block, in four blocks, he didn’t think it was going to be this devastating.

“It jumped whole streets, and it hit this community, but it didn’t touch the mountainside at all.”

They’re still trying to process the apocalyptic scenes here and grieving for those who did not get out.

Kimiko said: “I have no words to explain my feelings at this point in time.

“I’m just silent and numb and just mentally trying to go through the process.”

Rodney Nickerson decided not to leave his Altadena home.
Pic: Kimiko Nickerson
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Rodney Nickerson decided not to leave his Altadena home.
Pic: Kimiko Nickerson

‘Truly apocalyptic scenes’ as flames swallow homes in LA wildfires evacuation zone

It would be impossible to exaggerate the scale of the destruction, cars burnt to a cinder, palm trees still alight, powerlines strewn across roads.

So many people have lost the roof over their head but there’s one thing Kimiko says she’ll never lose – her memories.

“Every laugh, every joke he told.

“He was a smart man. He read the LA Times from cover to cover and walked around the Rose Bowl every day.

“He was healthy, he was ambitious… but he went to sleep and died in his bed back there.”

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Donald Trump to be sentenced today over porn star hush money after Supreme Court rejects appeal

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Donald Trump to be sentenced today over porn star hush money after Supreme Court rejects appeal

The US Supreme Court has rejected a last-ditch attempt by Donald Trump to delay sentencing in the Stormy Daniels hush money case.

The president-elect was convicted on 34 counts last May in New York of falsifying business records relating to payments made to Ms Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.

Prosecutors claimed he had paid her $130,000 (£105,300) in hush money to not reveal details of what Ms Daniels said was a sexual relationship in 2006.

Mr Trump has denied any liaison with Ms Daniels or any wrongdoing.

By a majority, the Supreme Court found his sentencing would not be an insurmountable burden during the presidential transition since the presiding judge, Juan M Merchan, has indicated he will not give Mr Trump jail time, fines or probation.

Mr Trump’s attorneys argued that evidence used in the Manhattan trial violated last summer’s Supreme Court ruling giving Mr Trump broad immunity from prosecution over acts he took as president.

At the least, they said, the sentencing should be delayed while their appeals play out to avoid distracting Mr Trump during the presidential transition.

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Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP
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Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP

Mr Trump’s attorneys went to the justices after New York courts refused to postpone sentencing.

Judges in New York found that the convictions related to personal matters rather than Mr Trump’s official acts as president.

Mr Trump’s attorneys called the case politically motivated, and they said sentencing him now would be a “grave injustice” that threatens to disrupt the presidential transition as the Republican prepares to return to the White House.

Mr Trump has said he will appeal again: “I respect the court’s opinion – I think it was actually a very good opinion for us because you saw what they said, but they invited the appeal and the appeal is on the bigger issue. So, we’ll see how it works out,” he said at a dinner with Republican governors at his private club in Florida.

Because the New York case was a state, rather than federal crime, Mr Trump will not be able to pardon himself when he takes office on 20 January.

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