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This election is about the big and the small – as small as anything can be in the USA.

The big number first – our Sky News poll tracker now gives Kamala Harris a three-point lead over Donald Trump nationwide.

That number has been getting bigger – it looks like we can now see a bounce from last week’s debate, one that is being sustained.

And it could get bigger still: bear in mind that our poll tracker includes polls conducted pre-debate.

As they are replaced in our tracker by new polls, her lead may improve.

Three points are substantial: for context, a week after the Biden-Trump debate, widely seen as a disaster for Biden, Trump was polling 3.3 points higher than Biden – a similar gap.

So why aren’t we talking about Trump being in as much trouble?

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Some of that has to do with the narrative and momentum around Biden at the time, especially the idea that things would only get worse.

But Trump also has some strengths that Biden did not.

First, as we talked about earlier this week, Harris needs a big nationwide polling lead to ensure she wins a small number of swing states.

Three points are no guarantee of that.

And that’s the other point about the small.

This is about specific voters in specific places, with different demographics and economies.

There are three geographic groupings for the swing states – the southeast (Georgia and North Carolina), the northeast (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), and the southwest (Nevada and Arizona).

Ipsos has done polling around the issues that voters in those three regions think are the most important, though.

They’re strikingly similar, enough to aggregate them together.

Democracy means “threats to democracy and the dangers of extreme polarisation” and the economy will mean different things in the rust belt northeast vs the agricultural southeast.

But there are clear priorities.

And those swing state voters have clear ideas about which candidate can best deal with those issues.

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There are some local variations though.

The southwest rates Trump even higher on the economy and immigration, and the southeast thinks he would be better for democracy.

That’s the good news for Donald Trump.

In the smaller places where the votes really matter, he’s seen as the best candidate on the issues that really matter.

But let’s finish with another big-picture finding: Harris’s net favourability continues to be way ahead of Trump’s.

So, big vs small: how they interact will decide the election.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump and Putin agree on ‘many points’ in Ukraine talks – but give little detail away

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Trump and Putin agree on 'many points' in Ukraine talks - but give little detail away

Donald Trump has said there are “many points” he and Vladimir Putin agreed on after holding critical talks on the war in Ukraine – but no deal has been reached yet.

Following the much-anticipated meeting in Alaska, which lasted more than two-and-a-half hours, the two leaders gave a short media conference giving little detail about what had been discussed, and without taking questions.

Mr Trump described the meeting as “very productive” and said there were “many points that we agreed on… I would say a couple of big ones”.

Trump-Putin summit – latest updates

Trump and Putin in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
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Trump and Putin in Alaska. Pic: Reuters

There are a few left, he added. “Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there…

“We haven’t quite got there, we’ve made some headway. There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

Mr Putin described the negotiations as “thorough and constructive”, and said Russia was “seriously interested in putting an end” to the war in Ukraine. He also warned Europe not to “torpedo nascent progress”.

Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson

After much build-up to the summit, it was ultimately not clear whether the talks produced meaningful steps towards a ceasefire in what has been the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years.

Mr Trump said he intended to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, who were excluded from the discussions, to brief them.

The news conference came after a grand arrival earlier in the day at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, where the US president stepped down from Air Force One and later greeted his Russian counterpart with a handshake and smiles on a red carpet.

Mr Putin even travelled alongside Mr Trump in the presidential limousine, nicknamed “The Beast”.

It was the kind of reception typically reserved for close US allies, belying the bloodshed and the suffering in the war.

Before the talks, the two presidents ignored frantically-shouted questions from journalists – and Mr Putin appeared to frown when asked by one reporter if he would stop “killing civilians” in Ukraine, putting his hand to his ear as though to indicate he could not hear.

Our US correspondent Martha Kelner, on the ground in Alaska, said he was shouting “let’s go” – apparently in reference to getting the reporters out of the room.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Ukrainians are appalled at Trump’s naive and cack-handed diplomacy

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Ukrainians are appalled at Trump's naive and cack-handed diplomacy

For Ukrainians, the spectacle of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska will be repugnant.

The man behind an unprovoked invasion of their country is being honoured with a return to the world stage by the leader of a country that was meant to be their ally.

And they feel let down.

Follow latest updates from Ukraine war

President Trump had threatened severe sanctions on Russia within 50 days if Russia didn’t agree to a deal. He had seemed close to imposing them before letting Putin wriggle off the hook yet again.

But they are not surprised. At every stage, Trump has either sided with Russia or at least given them the benefit of the doubt.

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‘Putin won’t mess around with me’

It is clear that Putin has some kind of hold over this American president, in their minds and many others.

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Ukraine wants three things out of these talks. A ceasefire, security guarantees and reparations. It is not clear at this stage that they will get any of them.

Ukrainians and their European allies are appalled at the naive and cack-handed diplomacy that has preceded this meeting.

Vladimir Putin is sending a team of foreign affairs heavyweights, adept at getting the better of opponents in negotiations.

There are, the Financial Times reported this week, no Russia specialists left at the Trump White House.

Instead, Trump is relying on Steve Witkoff, a real estate lawyer and foreign policy novice, who has demonstrated a haphazard mastery of his brief and breathtaking credulity with the Russians.

Former British spy chief Sir Alex Younger described him today as totally out of his depth. Trump, he says, is being played like a fiddle by Putin.

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There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict at the heart of the Trump administration’s handling of it. Witkoff and the president see it in terms of real estate. But it has never been about territory.

Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign democratic entity cannot be tolerated. He has made no pretence that his views on that have changed.

Ukrainians know that and fear any deal cooked up in Alaska will be used by Putin on the path towards that ultimate goal

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Melania Trump threatens to sue Hunter Biden for $1bn over Epstein comments

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Melania Trump threatens to sue Hunter Biden for bn over Epstein comments

Melania Trump has threatened to sue Hunter Biden for more than $1bn (£736.5m) in damages if he does not retract comments linking her to Jeffrey Epstein.

Mr Biden, who is the son of former US president Joe Biden, alleged in an interview this month that sex trafficker Epstein introduced the first lady to President Donald Trump.

“Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. The connections are, like, so wide and deep,” he claimed.

Ms Trump’s lawyer labelled the comments false, defamatory and “extremely salacious” in a letter to Mr Biden.

Hunter Biden. File pic: AP
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Hunter Biden. File pic: AP

Her lawyer wrote that the first lady suffered “overwhelming financial and reputational harm” as the claims were widely discussed on social media and reported by media around the world.

The president and first lady previously said they were introduced by modelling agent Paolo Zampolli at a New York Fashion Week party in 1998.

Mr Biden attributed the claim that Epstein introduced the couple to author Michael Wolff, who was accused by Mr Trump of making up stories to sell books in June and was dubbed a “third-rate reporter” by the president.

The former president’s son doubled down on his remarks in a follow-up interview with the same YouTube outlet, Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, entitled “Hunter Biden Apology”.

Asked if he would apologise to the first lady, Mr Biden responded: “F*** that – that’s not going to happen.”

He added: “I don’t think these threats of lawsuits add up to anything other than designed distraction.”

Ms Trump’s threat to sue Mr Biden echoes a strategy employed by her husband, who has aggressively used legal action to go after critics.

Public figures like the Trumps must meet a high bar to succeed in a defamation suit like the one that could be brought by the first lady if she follows through with her threat.

In his initial interview, Mr Biden also hit out at “elites” and others in the Democratic Party, who he claims undermined his father before he dropped out of last year’s race for president.

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The letter threatening legal action against Mr Biden is dated 6 August and was first reported by Fox News Digital.

It was addressed to Abbe Lowell, a lawyer who has represented Mr Biden in his criminal cases. Mr Lowell has not yet commented on the letter.

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Trump claims Epstein ‘stole’ Virginia Giuffre

Read more: What you need to know about Trump, Epstein and the MAGA controversy

This comes as pressure on the White House to release the Epstein files has been mounting for weeks, after he made a complete U-turn on his administration’s promise to release more information publicly.

The US Justice Department, which confirmed in July that it would not be releasing the files, said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.

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