The “ongoing viability” of London’s junior stock market would be threatened if the government removes business relief (BR) from its shares in next month’s budget, the exchange’s owner has warned ministers.
Sky News has obtained a letter sent by Dame Julia Hoggett, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) chief executive, to Tulip Siddiq, the City minister, which includes a stark alert about the potential impact on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of radical tax moves next month.
In it, Dame Julia expresses concern about “the current fragility of the market and this concern is shared by companies and fund managers across the market”.
AIM, which is positioned as the LSE’s international exchange for growth companies, has contracted from 819 companies with a combined value of £131bn at the end of 2020 to 704 companies now valued at approximately £76bn, according to Dame Julia.
Image: Julia Hoggett, the chief executive officer of the London Stock Exchange. Pic: PA
The LSE chief said removing BR from AIM shares – a fundamental part of the appeal of London’s junior market – “would remove a core source of capital undermining the market’s capital base and bringing its viability into question over the short to medium term”.
She added: “An announcement of the removal of BR in the budget is likely to result in significant market volatility as individual investors and IHT funds seek to liquidate holdings in companies that have been long-term beneficiaries of BR investment.”
And she warned: “Given the illiquid nature of smaller companies, we are concerned that this volatility would have a disproportionate impact on share prices across the market.”
Dame Julia’s letter amounts to the starkest warning to date from the exchange about the future of AIM, which has provided a model to other international exchange operators but which has been beset by concerns about a lack of liquidity and corporate governance issues at some of its companies.
“Given the concerted effort being made to improve the funding environment in the UK including the development of PISCES, we are genuinely concerned that the removal of BR and its direct impact on growth markets such as AIM would create a very negative perception about the government’s commitment to this agenda,” the LSE chief wrote.
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Her letter to Ms Siddiq comes just over a month before Rachel Reeves delivers the first speech by a Labour chancellor for nearly 15 years.
Image: Tulip Siddiq MP in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The new government has warned that the problematic economic inheritance it has been saddled with will lead to difficult tax and spending decisions.
Dame Julia is a key member of the Capital Markets Industry Taskforce, a joint government and industry body, and one of the City’s most respected figures.
She has played a pivotal role in advocating listing rule changes which have been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority in an attempt to improve the international competitiveness of London’s capital markets.
That drive has been spurred in part by the number of large London-listed companies – among them the gambling giant Flutter Entertainment – which have switched their primary listing to New York.
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The City has also missed out on a string of prized initial public offerings (IPOs), most notably that of the chip designer ARM Holdings, exacerbating fears of an inexorable post-Brexit decline in London’s standing as a financial centre.
Those concerns may, in part, be alleviated by a decision from the Chinese-founded online fashion giant Shein to list in London, although its flotation plans are proving to be contentious because of the company’s labour rights record.
In her letter to Ms Siddiq, Dame Julia said AIM had played “a crucial role as a source of equity capital for growth and development”.
She cited data showing that UK-based companies admitted to AIM contributed £35.7bn gross value added to UK GDP and directly supported more than 410,000 jobs in 2023.
“Furthermore, through their supply chain expenditure, these companies support a further 212,000 jobs and £18.6bn of GVA and are estimated to contribute £5.4bn in corporation tax,” Dame Julia wrote.
She also told Ms Siddiq that companies listed on AIM were geographically and industrially broad-based, were “more productive than the national average and have consistently generated four-times as much of their revenue from overseas exports, compared to private companies”.
In her letter, Dame Julia also highlighted that smaller quoted companies had been disproportionately affected by recent outflows from UK-listed shares, with net outflows in three of the last four years.
“The package of fiscal incentives including EIS, VCT and BR are designed to address long-standing market failures to ensure companies can transition to the public market, raise capital, scale and stay in the UK,” Dame Julia wrote.
“Without these measures, investors would likely concentrate their investments in larger, more liquid companies, denying growth companies access to risk equity capital through the public markets.”
Dame Julia also said that more than 660 AIM-listed companies with a combined market capitalisation of about £73bn were eligible for business relief.
“Around 75% of these companies are smaller companies in the £0-£100m market capitalisation range – the category of companies regularly identified as otherwise being more susceptible to capital constraints,” she wrote.
“The availability of BR has been one of the few constant features of AIM.
“As a result, investment encouraged by BR has become a vital source of capital for AIM companies.
“Around £6.3bn of capital is managed by the largest AIM IHT funds.
“However, the total amount of capital allocated to AIM companies, where BR is a factor in the investment decision, is likely to be much greater.”
A spokeswoman for LSEG, the LSE’s owner, declined to comment.
The owners of Visma, one of Europe’s biggest software companies, are close to hiring bankers for a £16bn flotation that would rank among the London market’s biggest for years.
Sky News understands that Visma’s board and shareholders have convened a beauty parade of investment banks in the last fortnight ahead of an initial public offering (IPO) likely to take place in 2026.
Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are understood to be among those in contention for the top roles on the deal, City insiders said on Friday.
Several banks are expected to be appointed as global coordinators on the IPO as soon as this month.
Visma is a Norwegian company which supplies accounting, payroll, HR and other business software to well over one million small business customers.
It has grown at a rapid rate in recent years, both organically and through scores of acquisitions, and has seen its profitability and valuation rise substantially during that period.
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The business is now valued at about €19bn (£16.4bn) and is partly owned by a number of sovereign wealth funds and other private equity firms.
The majority of the company is owned by Hg, the London-based private equity firm which has backed a string of spectacularly successful companies in the software industry.
Visma’s owners’ decision to pick the UK ahead of competition from Amsterdam represents a welcome boost to the City amid ongoing questions about the attractiveness of the London stock market to international companies.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, used last month’s speech at Mansion House to launch a taskforce aimed at generating additional IPO activity in the UK.
Spokespeople claiming to represent Visma at Kekst, a communications firm, did not respond to a series of enquiries about the IPO appointments.
Hg also failed to respond to a request for comment.
The American investment giant Carlyle is preparing to take control of Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers, in a deal that will end the Barclay family’s long tenure at another major UK company.
Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which is the biggest lender to Very Group’s immediate parent company, could assume ownership of the retailer as soon as October under the terms of its financing arrangements.
On Friday, sources said that Carlyle was expected to hold further talks in the coming weeks with fellow creditors including IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which assumed part of Very Group’s debts in a complex deal related to ownership of the Telegraph newspaper titles.
Carlyle will probably end up holding a majority stake in Very Group, which has about 4.5 million customers, once it exercises a ‘step-in right’ which effectively converts its debt into equity ownership, the sources said.
Very Group – which is chaired by the former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi – borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, earlier this year as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.
Precise details of the company’s capital and ownership structure will be thrashed out before the change of control rights are triggered at the beginning of October.
The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.
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Carlyle, which declined to comment, may hold onto the business for a further period before looking to offload it.
IMI is also likely to end up with an equity stake or a preferred position in the recapitalised company’s debt structure, sources added.
Prospective bidders for Very Group were expected to be courted on the basis of its technology-driven financial services arm as well as the core retail offering which sells everything from electrical goods to fashion.
Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.
Very Group – previously known as Shop Direct – is one of the UK’s biggest online shopping businesses, owning the Very and Littlewoods brands and employing 3,700 people.
It boasts well over £2bn in annual sales, with about one-fifth of that generated by its Very Finance consumer lending arm.
Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at July’s general election.
He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for decades.
In the 39 weeks to 29 March, Very Group reported a 3.8% fall in revenue to £1.67bn, which it said included “a decrease in Littlewoods revenue of 15.1%, reflecting the ongoing managed decline of this business”.
Nevertheless, it said sales in its home and sports categories were performing strongly.
IMI’s position is expected to be pivotal to the talks about the future of the business, given Abu Dhabi’s status as an important global backer of buyout, credit and infrastructure funds such as those raised and managed by Carlyle.
The UAE vehicle is expected to emerge from the protracted saga over the Telegraph’s ownership with a 15% stake in the newspapers.
Under the original deal struck in 2023, RedBird and IMI paid a total of £1.2bn to refinance the Barclay family’s debts to Lloyds Banking Group, with half tied to the media assets and the other half – solely funded by IMI – secured against other family assets including part of Very Group’s debt pile.
The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service.
A spokesman for Very Group declined to comment, while IMI also declined to comment.
It had seemed simple enough. In her first budget as chancellor, Rachel Reeves promised a crackdown on the non-dom regime, which for the past 200 years has allowed residents to declare they are permanently domiciled in another country for tax purposes.
Under the scheme, non-doms, some of the richest people in the country, were not taxed on their foreign incomes.
Then that all changed.
Standing at the despatch box in October last year, the chancellor said: “I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your tax here. So today, I can confirm we will abolish the non-dom tax regime and remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025.”
The hope was that the move would raise £3.8bn for the public purse. However, there are signs that the non-doms are leaving in such great numbers that the policy could end up costing the UK investment, jobs and, of course, the tax that the non-doms already pay on their UK earnings.
If the numbers don’t add up, this tax-raising policy could morph into an act of self-harm.
Image: Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters
With the budget already under strain, a poor calculation would be costly financially. The alternative, a U-turn, could be expensive for other reasons, eroding faith in a chancellor who has already been on a turbulent ride.
So, how worried should she be?
The data on the number of non-doms in the country is published with a considerable lag. So, it will be a while before we know the full impact of this policy.
However, there is much uncertainty about how this group will behave.
While the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the policy could generate £3.8bn for the government over the next five years, assuming between 12 and 25% of them leave, it admitted it lacked confidence in those numbers.
Worryingly for ministers, there are signs, especially in London, that the exodus could be greater.
Property sales
Analysis from the property company LonRes, shows there were 35.8% fewer transactions in May for properties in London’s most exclusive postcodes compared with a year earlier and 33.5% fewer than the pre-pandemic average.
Estate agents blame falling demand from non-dom buyers.
This comes as no surprise to Magda Wierzycka, a South African billionaire businesswoman, who runs an investment fund in London. She herself is threatening to leave the UK unless the government waters down its plans.
Image: Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT
“Non-doms are leaving, as we speak, and the problem with numbers is that the consequences will only become known in the next 12 to 18 months,” she said.
“But I have absolutely no doubt, based on people I know who have already left, that the consequences would be quite significant.
“It’s not just about the people who are leaving that everyone is focusing on. It’s also about the people who are not coming, people who would have come, set up businesses, created jobs, they’re not coming. They take one look at what has happened here, and they’re not coming.”
Lack of options for non-doms
But where will they go? Britain was unusual in offering such an attractive regime. Bar a few notable exceptions, such as Italy, most countries run residency-based tax systems, meaning people pay tax to the country in which they live.
This approach meant many non-doms escaped paying tax on their foreign income altogether because they didn’t live in those countries where they earned their foreign income.
In any case, widespread double taxation treaties mean people are generally not taxed twice, although they may have to pay the difference.
In one important sense, Magda is right. It could take a while before the consequences are fully known. There are few firm data points for us to draw conclusions from right now, but the past could be illustrative.
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3:06
Are taxes going to rise?
The non-dom regime has been through repeated reform. George Osborne changed the system back in 2017 to limit it to just 15 years. Then Jeremy Hunt announced the Tories would abolish the regime altogether in one of his final budgets.
Following the 2017 reforms there was an initial shock, but the numbers stabilised, falling just 5% after a few years. The data suggests there was an initial exodus of people who were probably considering leaving anyway, but those who remained – and then arrived – were intent on staying in the UK.
So, should the government look through the numbers and hold its nerve? Not necessarily.
Have Labour crossed a red line?
Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the response could be far greater this time because of some key changes under Labour.
The government will no longer allow non-doms to protect money held in trusts, so 40% inheritance tax will be due on their estates. For many, that is a red line.
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1:57
‘Rachel Reeves would hate what you just said’
Mr Adam said: “The 2017 reform deliberately built in what you might call a loophole, a way to avoid paying a lot more tax through the use of existing offshore trusts. That was a route deliberately left open to enable many people to avoid the tax.
“So it’s not then surprising that they didn’t up sticks and leave. Part of the reform that was announced last year was actually not having that kind of gap in the system to enable people to avoid the tax using trusts, and therefore you might expect to see a bigger response to the kind of reforms we’ve seen announced now, but it also means we don’t have very much idea about how big a response to expect.”
With the public finances under considerable pressure, that will offer little comfort to a chancellor who is operating on the finest of margins.