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Today saw a shift in rhetoric from Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she moved to promise the Labour conference a more optimistic vision for the country. 

But quietly there also appears to have been a shift in approach, which could mean a markedly different landscape for public spending come the budget on 30 October, allowing far greater scope for Labour to borrow and spend.

Politics live: ‘More optimistic’ Budget could be in store

The easiest way to see the change is to compare the chancellor’s actions before and after the summer.

In July, when Ms Reeves created the £22bn “black hole”, she gave us a taste of how she intended to fill it.

Not only was there the means testing of the winter fuel allowance, but she did something the Treasury have been wanting for years – to cancel a whole load of investment projects, including road building with the A303 down to Cornwall, as well as delaying the hospital building programme.

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This was as striking as it was confusing. Such projects would be the cornerstone of any government’s growth plan.

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Yet in the eternal tension in Labour between fiscal discipline and growth, the former had won out seemingly at the expense of the latter.

And Treasury mandarins at the time were clear. The best way to fill an immediate £22bn black hole would always be to delay or can these investments – or capital projects.

Now fast forward to the Autumn and £16bn of the black hole remains to be filled on 30 October.

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There is no doubt that some tax rises, welfare cuts and spending curbs may be in the mix. But I am told that borrowing might also be used to plug this hole.

This is by no means certain – the government’s first fiscal rule could yet prevent this from happening.

But I am told they may reduce the amount of cuts or tax rises simply by putting it on the nation’s credit card once more.

This is just one of the ways that the government may allow itself to borrow more.

There is the well-trailed discussion about redefining debt in the second fiscal rule – a technical change that could free up £15bn or more.

There’s discussion about how to treat other assets like GB Energy on the balance sheet, which again could allow the government to borrow more within its rules.

The markets are unlikely to take fright. They have been convinced, it seems, by the vibe of Ms Reeves as an iron chancellor.

However, there is now a chance the optimistic vision she outlined today could come sooner than we think – thanks to higher borrowing.

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Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

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Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.

However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:

“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Source: Raoul Pal

“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

China retaliates with new tariffs

Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.

In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis

China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.

Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely

As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.

Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.

Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined

Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:

“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

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Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

A Nigerian court has reportedly delayed the country’s tax evasion case against Binance until April 30 to give time for Nigeria’s tax authority to respond to a request from the crypto exchange.

Reuters reported on April 7 that a lawyer for Binance, Chukwuka Ikwuazom, asked a court the same day to invalidate an order allowing for court documents to be served to the company via email.

Binance doesn’t have an office in Nigeria and Ikwuazom claimed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) didn’t get court permission to serve court documents to Binance outside the country.

“On the whole the order for the substituted service as granted by the court on February 11, 2025 on Binance who is … registered under the laws of Cayman Islands and resident in Cayman Islands is improper and should be set aside,” he said.

FIRS sued Binance in February, claiming the exchange owed $2 billion in back taxes and should be made to pay $79.5 billion for damages to the local economy as its its operations allegedly destabilized the country’s currency, the naira, which Binance denies.

It also reportedly alleged that Binance is liable to pay corporate income tax in Nigeria, as it has a “significant economic presence” there, with FIRS requesting a court order for the exchange to pay income taxes for 2022 and 2023, plus a 10% annual penalty on unpaid amounts along with a nearly a 27% interest rate on the unpaid taxes.

Nigeria’s legal history with Binance

In February 2024, Nigeria arrested and detained Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla on tax fraud and money laundering charges. The country dropped the tax charges against both in June and the remaining charge against Gambaryan in October.

Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

Tigran Gambaryan (right) was seen in a September video struggling to walk into a courtroom in the Nigerian capital of Abuja. Source: X

Anjarwalla managed to slip his guards and escape Nigerian custody to Kenya in March last year and is apparently still at large.

Related: Binance exec shares details about release from Nigerian detention 

Gambaryan, a US citizen, returned home in October after reports suggested his health had deteriorated during his detainment with reported cases of pneumonia, malaria and a herniated spinal disc that may need surgery.

Binance stopped its naira currency deposits and withdrawals in March 2024, effectively leaving the Nigerian market.

Magazine: Trash collectors in Africa earn crypto to support families with ReFi 

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Sam and Starmer – what did PM actually mean?

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Sam and Starmer – what did PM actually mean?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

It’s the final episode before recess so Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy wonder, given the turbulent times, who’ll be the first to call for Parliament to be recalled?

And talking of the Lib Dems, there’s some new polling which might put a spring into the step of Ed Davey – is his party’s position on Trump and trade doing them some favours?

Of course, there’s plenty of time to talk about the onslaught of US tariffs and implications for the UK – watch out for if the PM is asked about fiscal headroom when he appears before the Liaison Committee of senior MPs later.

Sam and Anne also ponder the PM’s response to Sam at a Q&A yesterday.

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