After Lebanon’s bloodiest day in almost two decades, the big question is whether this is the start of a much bigger war.
Central to that is the arsenal of 150,000 missiles Hezbollah is thought to have at its disposal.
Does it have the ability and the intent to use them? If the answer is yes to both, the region is in for a devastating conflict that will send shockwaves around the world and could engulf the Middle East in war.
Western and Israeli intelligence agencies believe the Shiite militia has somewhere near that number of missiles secreted in the hills of southern Lebanon.
Among them are an estimated 10,000 long-range precision-guided missiles that could wreak havoc on the length and breadth of Israel.
The question has been whether Hezbollah will end up letting loose that awesome arsenal. So far, it has fired only a limited number in an almost daily exchange with Israel over the northern border.
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So, does it have the ability to do so now? Israel has done major damage to its capabilities in the past week, taking out key commanders and the communications system it would use to coordinate such an attack.
The recent pager and walkie-talkie blitzes have degraded Hezbollah substantially. But it’s not just its technical ability that is important – using those missiles in earnest would need permission from Iran.
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Hezbollah’s patrons in Tehran have supplied and paid for much of its aerial armoury. The group depends on Iranian money and patronage to maintain its power and strength.
Observers have long assumed Iran wants to keep the missiles for another day, as insurance for the time Israel attacks its own nuclear facilities.
Is that about to change given Israel’s unprecedented onslaught?
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Sky News in southern Lebanon during Israeli airstrikes
Clues can be found in the words of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. He has accused Israel of “laying traps” and wanting a wider war.
But his tone was not belligerent. The implications of his comments were that Iran will not fall for such traps. Prime among them would surely be letting Hezbollah squander that armoury of missiles in response to Israel’s provocations.
Iran’s leader certainly wasn’t urging Iran’s allies Hezbollah to up the ante. Outside powers will find that reassuring – up to a point.
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War is not an exact science. Hezbollah is a disciplined organisation, but is now in disarray. It has been provoked like never before by Israel in recent days.
Could it still be goaded into much more devastating action? If it retains some ability to unleash its firepower in earnest, its leaders may still be tempted to do so.
This remains a very dangerous moment for the region and further afield.
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defence secretary Yoav Gallant and a senior Hamas commander by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants against the senior Israeli figures are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masrifor alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding “whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas”.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.
“The court has minimised how Hamas fights – deliberately from within civilian infrastructure and cruelly using Palestinian civilians as human shields, tragically leading to many casualties,” the board said.
“Democratic governments, and people around the world, should consider how they would have responded to an October 7th perpetrated against their country, involving mass murder, rape, and hostage-taking.
“We should all be focused on defeating the Hamas terrorists, liberating the hostages, ensuring that civilians in Gaza receive all necessary aid and working towards a sustainable peace for Israelis and Palestinians to prevent these horrible conflicts in the future.
“The decision of the ICC is counter-productive in all these respects.”
Three arrest warrants have been issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) but the two most significant are those against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.
The court in their statement said that they have reasonable grounds to believe that those two men, have been carrying out the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts.
Ever since the arrest warrants were first sought there have been a lot of legal challenges. But the court has rejected all that and has now issued these arrest warrants.
So what does it mean? Well, practically, it would mean that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant couldn’t travel to any state that is a signatory of the ICC – about 120 countries around the world, including the UK and many European countries.
Were Netanyahu to travel to any of those countries, he should be arrested by the police forces of those countries. And it’ll be very interesting to see what Sir Keir Starmer’s reaction is to this.
But the US, Israel’s closest ally, is not a signatory of the ICC. I think Netanyahu will have support on the other side of the Atlantic.
Also, these ICC arrest warrants don’t always get carried out. We saw President Vladimir Putin, who had an arrest warrant issued for him after the invasion of Ukraine, travel to Mongolia a couple of months ago and nothing was done about that.
But in terms of the reputations of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, in terms of that legacy, they are now wanted suspects, wanted to be put on trial for war crimes. And it is a label that will never leave them.
Warrant for Hamas leader
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
The home secretary has refused to say if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he landed on British soil after an international arrest warrant was issued for him.
On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli defence secretary Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza.
But Yvette Cooper said the ICC, which the UK is a member of, is independent and while the government respects that, it “wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment” on the processes involved.
She told Sky News: “We’ve always respected the importance of international law, but in the majority of the cases that they pursue, they don’t become part of the British legal process.
“What I can say is that obviously, the UK government’s position remains that we believe the focus should be on getting a ceasefire in Gaza.”
However, Emily Thornberry, Labour chair of the foreign affairs committee in parliament, told Sky News: “If Netanyahu comes to Britain, our obligation under the Rome Convention would be to arrest him under the warrant from the ICC.
“Not really a question of should, we are required to because we are members of the ICC.”
An ICC arrest warrant was also issued for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri, the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks in Israel, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
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Israel claims Al Masri was killed earlier this year but the ICC said that has not been confirmed, so it was issuing the arrest warrant.
Netanyahu’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding: “Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas.”
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday he would invite Netanyahu to visit Hungary and he would guarantee the arrest warrant would “not be observed”.
However, both France and Italy signalled they would arrest Netanyahu if he came to their countries.
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Why have arrest warrants been issued?
The ICC originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and on Thursday announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
It is the first time a sitting leader of a major Western ally has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global court of justice.
A second Australian teenager has died after being poisoned with methanol in Laos, bringing the number of people killed to six.
Holly Bowles, 19, has died, according to the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong, who said: “All Australians will be heartbroken by the tragic passing of Holly Bowles. I offer my deepest sympathies to her family and friends.”
Bianca Jones, who according to Australian authorities was Ms Bowles’s best friend, died earlier this week after both 19-year-olds fell ill on 13 November while staying in southeast Asian country.
They are two of six people who are believed to have died after drinking methanol-laced vodka in the tourist hotspot.
The death of British woman Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent, was announced on Thursday. She fell ill after reportedly drinking “free shots” from a local bar in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.
Two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen also died as a result of the mass poisoning.
Methanol, which is sometimes added to mixed drinks as a cheaper alternative to alcohol, but can cause severe poisoning or death.
The manager and owner of the hostel where the two Australians, both from Melbourne, were staying, has been detained, according to an officer at Vang Vieng’s Tourism Police office who refused to give his name.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.