OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees
The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
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Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.
It’s also the stuff of nightmares for OPEC+, for whom oil revenues are critical.
The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices.
It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?
By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no.
The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade.
The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future.
S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050.
OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India.
The medium-term outlook
As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.
“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.
“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”
Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry.
“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”
Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification.
“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.
Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”
Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said.
That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted.
“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.
In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.
“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.
In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.
It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
The Mockingbird Solar Center, Ørsted’s largest solar project globally, is now online, next to protected prairie donated by the renewable energy giant.
This massive 468-megawatt (MW) solar farm is set to power 80,000 homes and businesses, providing a major boost to the Texas grid.
But the launch of Mockingbird Solar isn’t just about clean energy – it’s also about restoring precious ecosystems. Ørsted has donated 953 acres of the Smiley-Woodfin Native Prairie Grassland, which sits next to the solar center, to The Nature Conservancy. The donated land is now the Smiley Meadow Preserve, a protected area for tallgrass prairie that’s home to more than 400 species of grasses and wildflowers.
Tallgrass prairies are some of the rarest ecosystems in the US, with less than 1% of Texas’ original tallgrass prairies still in existence. Tallgrass prairie does a lot of heavy lifting for the environment, including storing carbon, preventing floods, and providing crucial habitats for pollinators.
“Native prairies are the rarest landscapes left in Texas – so much so that many people have never seen one,” said David Bezanson, land protection strategy program director for The Nature Conservancy in Texas. He added that preserving Smiley Meadow will not only conserve one of the best prairie remnants left but also help restore other prairie habitats and boost regional biodiversity.
The Mockingbird Solar Center, a half-billion-dollar project, is part of Ørsted’s $20 billion push to expand renewable energy production across the US. Beyond generating electricity, it will inject $75 million into local property taxes, benefiting schools and other public services. The project also created over 550 construction jobs and will continue to be supported by operations staff moving forward.
Ørsted worked with US companies, including First Solar, for solar panels and partnered with local businesses like Drake Construction and Pfifer Farms for construction materials. It also gave more than $50,000 to local volunteer fire departments in Roxton and Brookston.
With Mockingbird Solar now up and running, Ørsted has more than 6 gigawatts of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage projects either in operation or being built across the US.
Read more: Ørsted got a huge Tesla battery storage system for the world’s single-largest offshore wind farm
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Jeep’s first global luxury electric SUV will arrive at US dealerships any day. Despite its $72,000 price tag, lease prices for the 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV start at just $599 per month.
2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV lease prices
After unveiling its first global electric SUV, Jeep’s CEO said the Wagoneer S “marks a new chapter” in its storied history.
Jeep claims the Wagoneer S packs “exhilarating performance.” With 600 hp and 617 lb-ft of torque, the big-body SUV can sprint from 0 to 60 mph in just 3.4 seconds. Its 100 kWh battery pack also gives it a driving range of over 300 miles.
The electric SUV is unmistakably still a Jeep, but it did get several upgrades to distinguish it as an EV. The grille is now enclosed without the need to cool a massive engine, giving it a sporty, more modern look.
Jeep revamped its design with a new illuminated seven-slot grille with ambient cast lightning. It also fine-tuned its profile, adding flush door handles, a rear wing, and integrated fins for better airflow.
The first Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition models get exclusive dark accent design elements like 20″ Gloss Black Wheels.
Inside, the electric SUV is loaded with the latest tech and connectivity, including a best-in-class 45″ of usable screen space. The setup includes a 12.3″ center screen and an exclusive 10.25″ interactive front passenger screen.
Jeep already announced that the 2024 Wagoneer S EV will start at $71,995, but now the company has revealed lease prices for the first time.
According to Jeep, the 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition can be leased for $599 per month for 36 months (10,000 miles per year). The deal includes $4,999 due at signing and a $7,500 EV incentive. However, you may want to act fast, as Jeep’s offer is only good until December 2, 2024.
| Jeep Wagoneer S vs Tesla Model Y | Starting Price | Range | Lease Price |
| Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition | $71,995 | +300 miles | $599/mo |
| Tesla Model Y RWD | $44,990 | 320 miles | $299/mo |
| Tesla Model Y AWD | $47,990 | 308 miles | $399/mo |
| Tesla Model Y AWD Performance | $51,490 | 279 miles | $599/mo |
In comparison, Tesla Model Y RWD lease prices start at $299 for 36 months with $2,999 down (10,000 miles). The Performance AWD model starts at $599 per month. In an end-of-year promo, Tesla also offers 3 months of free Supercharging and Full Self-Driving.
Ready to drive off in your new electric SUV? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to view offers on the Jeep Wagoneer S and Tesla Model Y at a dealer near you.
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