OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees
The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
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Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.
It’s also the stuff of nightmares for OPEC+, for whom oil revenues are critical.
The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices.
It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?
By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no.
The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade.
The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future.
S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050.
OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India.
The medium-term outlook
As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.
“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.
“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”
Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry.
“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”
Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification.
“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.
Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”
Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said.
That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted.
“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.
In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.
“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.
In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.
It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
Environment
EcoFlow members can save up to 65% on power stations while supporting disaster relief during the 2025 Member’s Festival
Portable power station specialist EcoFlow is kicking off its third annual Member’s Festival this month and is offering a unique new rewards program to those who become EcoFlow members. The 2025 EcoFlow Member’s Festival will offer savings of up to 65% for its participating customers, and a portion of those funds will be allocated toward rescue power solutions for communities around the globe through the company’s “Power for All” fund.
EcoFlow remains one of the industry leaders in portable power solutions and continues to trek forward in its vision to power a new tech-driven, eco-conscious future. Per its website:
Our mission from day one is to provide smart and eco-friendly energy solutions for individuals, families, and society at large. We are, were, and will continue to be a reliable and trusted energy companion for users around the world.
To achieve such goals, EcoFlow has continued to expand its portfolio of sustainable energy solutions to its community members, including portable power stations, solar generators, and mountable solar panels. While EcoFlow is doing plenty to support its growing customer base, it has expanded its reach by giving back to disaster-affected communities by helping bolster global disaster response efforts the best way it knows how– with portable power solutions.
EcoFlow and its members look to provide “Power for All”
Since 2023, EcoFlow has collaborated with organizations worldwide as part of its “Power for All” mission. This initiative aims to ensure access to reliable and timely power to disaster-affected communities across the globe, including rescue agencies, affected hospitals, and shelters, to support rescue and recovery efforts.
This fund most recently provided aid for communities affected by the recent Los Angeles wildfires, assistance to the Special Forces Charitable Trust (SFCT) in North Carolina following severe hurricanes, and support for non-profits engaged in hurricane preparedness in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Per Jodi Burns, CEO of the Special Forces Charitable Trust:
In the wake of devastating storms in Western North Carolina, reliable power was a critical need for the families we serve. Thanks to EcoFlow’s generous donation of generators, we were able to provide immediate relief, ensuring these families and their communities had access to power when they needed it most. We are so impressed with EcoFlow’s commitment to disaster response through their ‘Power for All’ program. It has made a tangible impact, and we are deeply grateful for their support and partnership in helping these families recover and rebuild.
In 2024, the US experienced 27 weather and climate events, each causing losses exceeding $1 billion, marking the second-highest annual total on record, according to National Centers for Environmental Information. The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters underscore the critical need for reliable and timely power solutions during emergencies, much like EcoFlow and its members are helping provide through the “Power For All” initiative.
To support new and existing EcoFlow members, the company is celebrating its third annual Member’s Festival throughout April to offer a do-not-miss discount on its products and donate a portion of all sales to the “Power for All” fund to provide rescue power to those in need in the future. Learn how it all works below.
Save big and give back during the 2025 Member’s Festival
As of April 1st, you can now sign up to become an EcoFlow member to participate in the company’s exclusive 2025 Member Festival.
As a member, you can earn “EcoFlow Power Points” by completing tasks like registration, referrals, and product purchases and tracking your individual efforts toward disaster preparedness and recovery.
Beginning April 4, EcoFlow members will also be able to take advantage of exclusive discounts of up to 65% off select portable power stations, including the DELTA Pro Ultra, DELTA Pro 3, DELTA 2 Max, DELTA 3 Plus, RIVER 3 Plus, and more. However, these sale prices only last through April 25, so you’ll want to move quickly!
Click here to learn more about EcoFlow’s “Power for All” campaign. To register for EcoFlow’s 2025 Member Festival in the US, visit the EcoFlow website. To register as a member in Canada, visit here.
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Tesla is losing another top talent: its long-time head of software, David Lau, has reportedly told co-workers that he is exiting the automaker.
Tesla changed how the entire auto industry looks at software.
Before Tesla, it was an afterthought; user interfaces were rudimentary, and you had to go to a dealership to get a software update on your systems.
When Tesla launched the Model S in 2012, it all changed. Your car would get better through software updates like your phone, the large center display was responsive with a UI that actually made sense and was closer to an iPad experience than a car.
Tesla also integrated its software into its retail experience, service, and manufacturing.
David Lau deserves a lot of the credit for that.
He joined Tesla in 2012 as a senior manager of firmware engineering and quickly rose through the ranks. By 2014, he was promoted to director of firmware engineering and system integration, and in 2017, he became Vice President of software.
Lau listed the responsibilities of his team on his LinkedIn:
- Vehicle Software:
- Firmware for the powertrain, traction/stability control, HV electronics, battery management, and body control systems
- UI software and underlying Embedded Linux platforms
- Navigation and routing
- iOS and Android Mobile apps
- Distributed Systems:
- Server-side software and infrastructure that provides telemetry, diagnostics, over-the-air updates, and configuration/lifecycle management
- Data engineering and analytics platforms that power technical and business insights for an increasingly diverse set of customers across the company
- Diagnostic tools and fleet management, Manufacturing and Automation:
- Automation controls (PLC, robot)
- Server-side manufacturing execution systems that power all of Tesla’s production operations
- Product Security and Red Team for software, services, and systems across Tesla
Bloomberg reported today that Lau told his team he is leaving Tesla. The report didn’t include reasons for his stepping down.
Electrek’s Take
Twelve years at any company is a great run. At Tesla, it’s heroic. Congrats, David, on a great run. You undoubtedly had a significant impact on Tesla and software advancements in the broader auto industry.
He is another significant loss for Tesla, which has been losing a lot of top talent following a big wave of layoffs around this time last year.
I wonder who will take over. Michael Rizkalla, senior director of software engineering and vehicle firmware, is one of the most senior software engineers after Lau. He has been at Tesla for 7 years, and Tesla likes to promote within rather than hire outsiders.
There are also a lot of senior software execs working on AI at Tesla. Musk has been favoring them lately and he could fold Lau’s responsibilities under them.
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Kia’s electric SUVs are taking over. The EV3 is the best-selling retail EV in the UK this year, giving Kia its strongest sales start since it arrived 34 years ago. And it’s not just in the UK. Kia just had its best first quarter globally since it started selling cars in 1962.
Kia EV3 is the best-selling EV in the UK through March
In March, Kia sold a record nearly 20,000 vehicles in the UK, making it the fourth best-selling brand. It was also the second top-seller of electrified vehicles (EVs, PHEVs, and HEVs), accounting for over 55% of sales.
The EV3 remained the best-selling retail EV in the UK last month. Including the EV6, three-row EV9, and Niro EV, electric vehicles represented 21% of Kia’s UK sales in March.
Kia said the EV3 “started with a bang” in January, darting out as the UK’s most popular EV in retail sales. Through March, Kia’s electric SUV has held on to the crown. With the EV3 rolling out, Kia sold over 7,000 electric cars through March, nearly 50% more than in Q1 2024.
The EV3 was the best-selling retail EV in the UK in the first quarter and the fourth best-selling EV overall, including commercial vehicles.
Starting at £33,005 ($42,500), Kia said it’s the “brand’s most affordable EV yet.” It’s available with two battery packs, 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh, good for 430 km (270 miles) and 599 km (375 miles) of WLTP range, respectively.
With new EVs on the way, this could be just the start. Kia is launching several new EVs in the UK this year, including the EV4 sedan (and hatchback) and EV5 SUV. It also confirmed that the first PV5 electric vans will be delivered to customers by the end of the year.
Electrek’s Take
Globally, Kia sold a record 772,351 vehicles in the first quarter, its best since it started selling cars in 1962. With the new EV4, the brand’s first electric sedan and hatchback, launching this year, Kia looks to build on its momentum in 2025.
Kia has also made it very clear that it wants to be a global leader in the electric van market with its new Platform Beyond Vehicle (PBV) business, starting with the PV5 later this year.
Earlier today, we learned Kia’s midsize electric SUV, the EV5, is the fourth best-selling EV in Australia through March, outselling every BYD vehicle (at least for now). The EV5 is rolling out to new markets this year, including Canada, the UK, South Korea, and Mexico. However, it will not arrive in the US.
For those in the US, there are still a few Kia EVs to look forward to. Kia is launching the EV4 globally, including in the US, later this year. Although no date has been set, Kia confirmed the EV3 is also coming. It’s expected to arrive in mid-2026.
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