The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.
The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices.
It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?
By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no.
The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade.
The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future.
S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050.
OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India.
The medium-term outlook
As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.
“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.
“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”
Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry.
“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”
Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification.
“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.
Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”
Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said.
That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted.
“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.
In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.
“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.
In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.
It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, just announced it’s moving forward with an 815-megawatt (MW) solar project called Sequoia in Texas. When it’s done, it’ll be one of the largest solar farms in North America. The project’s price tag is a hefty $1.1 billion.
Enbridge’s Sequoia, around 150 miles west of Dallas, has already landed long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with AT&T and Toyota, ensuring most of its output is sold for years to come. This deal was highlighted in Enbridge’s third-quarter report on Friday.
Sequoia will be built in two phases, with power expected to start flowing in 2025 and 2026. Enbridge says it’s taken steps to reduce risks by securing equipment and procurement contracts in advance. Permits and purchase orders are also locked down.
Toyota’s PPA with Enbridge’s Texas solar project is part of Toyota’s broader push toward sustainability, as the automaker aims to achieve net zero by 2035 and match 45% of its purchased power with renewable electricity by 2026 as it still clings to its “diverse powertrain strategy.”
If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
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With its new electric SUV rolling out, NIO’s (NIO) sales topped the 20,000 mark again in Oct, its sixth straight month hitting the milestone.
NIO sold 20,976 vehicles last month, up 30.5% from October 2023. The NIO brand sold 16,657 vehicles, while its new “family-oriented smart vehicle brand,” Onvo, contributed 4,319 in its first full sales month.
After launching its new mid-size Onvo L60 electric SUV in September, NIO said production and deliveries are steadily ramping up.
At the end of October, NIO’s Onvo had 166 Centers and Spaces throughout 60 cities. Onvo plans to continue expanding its network to drive future growth.
NIO’s new electric SUV starts at around $21,200 (149,900) and is a direct rival to Tesla’s Model Y. The base $21K model is if you rent the battery. Even with the battery included, Onvo L60 prices still start at under $30,000 (206,900 yuan), with a CLTC range of up to 341 miles (555 km). That’s still less than the Model Y.
Tesla’s Model Y RWD starts at around $35,000 (249,900 yuan) with 344 mi (554 km) CLTC range in China.
NIO’s new Onvo brand drives higher Oct sales
NIO has often compared its new electric SUV to the Model Y, claiming it’s superior in many ways. The L60 has better consumption at 12.1 kWh/100km compared to the Model Y at 12.5 kWh/100km).
With a longer wheelbase (2,950 mm vs 2,890 mm), NIO’s electric SUV also provides slightly more interior space.
Despite the L60’s success so far, NIO believes its second Onvo model will be an even bigger hit. It could be a potential game-changer.
“If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product,” NIO’s CEO William Li told CnEVPost after launching the L60. Onvo will launch a new EV every year. Following the L60, Onvo will launch a new mid-to-large-size electric SUV next year.
NIO’s leader claims the new model will be revolutionary. According to Li, it will offer even more surprises than the L60. Deliveries are planned to begin in Q3 2025.
NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y trims
Range (CLTC)
Starting Price
NIO Onvo L60 (Battery rental)
555 km (341 mi) 730 km (454 mi)
149,900 yuan ($21,200)
NIO Onvo L60 (60 kWh)
555 km (341 mi)
206,900 yuan ($29,300)
NIO Onvo L60 (85 kWh)
730 km (454 mi)
235,900 yuan ($33,400)
NIO Onvo L60 (150 kWh)
+1,000 km (+621 mi)
TBD
Tesla Model Y RWD
554 km (344 mi)
249,900 yuan ($34,600)
Tesla Model Y AWD Long Range
688 km (427 mi)
290,900 yuan ($40,300)
Tesla Model Y AWD Performance
615 km (382 mi)
354,900 yuan ($49,100)
NIO Onvo L60 compared to Tesla Model Y prices and range in China
Local reports suggest a six-or seven-seat electric SUV could hit the market even sooner. With rumors of a launch around Q1 2025, deliveries could happen as soon as May 2025.
According to sources close to the matter, the L60 is just a “stepping stone” with even more exciting EVs on the way. The source claimed the new six-seat option will start at around $42,100 (300,000 yuan).
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Velotric Ebikes are designed by some of the most brilliant minds in the business. And now, you have the opportunity to own one (or two!) of these high-performance, elegant, reliable rides. You won’t want to miss these fantastic early-bird Black Friday deals running from November 1-14, and, also get a sneak peek at special offers that start on November 8.
Read on to find the right model for you and learn how you can donate $5 to get up to$550 off a superb Velotric electric bike.
Velotric Black Friday deals – give to get back
If you donate $5 to either the Clean Air Task Force or the Solutions Project at checkout, you’ll unlock some fantastic discounts off Velotric e-bikes:
Clean Air Task Force: Fighting air pollution for healthier communities
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Plus, Velotric is giving Electrek readers an exclusive discount: Enter the code Electrek20 at checkout to get an additional $20 OFF!
Velotric Discover 2 Ebike
The Velotric Discover 2, Velotric’s most comfortable e-bike, now has even more power, with a 750W high-performance motor and 75 Nm of torque. The 48V 706 Wh battery, providing up to 75 miles per charge, maximizes your range.
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Velotric Summit 1 Ebike
If you want both an everyday bike and a trekking bike, then this is the one for you. The customizable Velotric Summit 1 Ebike is a hybrid e-bike featuring a 750W motor with 90 Nm of torque that delivers exceptional power for both city streets and offroad terrain, and the intuitive throttle means you can access that power effortlessly. When you’re off-road, the 120mm travel suspension absorbs the impacts, resulting in a smoother ride. The 48V, 705.6Wh battery provides up to 70 miles of charge.
Plus, it features a vibrant multifunctional screen with three configurations and use the Velotric app to monitor mileage and access real-time bike data.
Summit 1 – Save up to $200
Velotric Nomad 1 Plus Ebike
The Nomad 1 Plus Ebike‘s 750W motor and 75 Nm torque allow you to conquer just about any terrain. The 691Wh battery keeps you on the move for up to 55 miles, an 80mm suspension fork smooths your ride, and powerful waterproof hydraulic brakes give you full control.
The Nomad 1 Plus features an adjustable stem, a brighter front light, and max speed adjustable range is 12-28 mph.
Nomad 1 Plus – save up to $550
Velotric Fold 1 Ebike
The Velotric Fold 1 Ebike becomes compact in just three quick moves, but don’t mistake it for simple. The high-performance 750W motor and generates 70 Nm torque, beating most of the competition for acceleration and climbing ability. The 608Wh battery will give you up to 55 miles of range, its step-through design is 20% lower than the competition, and when you’re done zipping around town or commuting, you can pop it into a car trunk or even a closet.
Plus, the Fold 1 is compatible with a wide range of cool accessories so you can customize it to meet your needs.
Fold 1 – Save up to $350
Velotric T1 ST Plus Ebike
The Velotric T1 ST Plus Ebike is an ultra-compact, 39-pound city-and-gravel bike that’s designed for riders with an active lifestyle. But don’t be fooled by its sleek look because it’s very well-equipped: The five pedal-assist-level T1 ST has a 70-mile range and three riding modes, and the peak 600W motor generates 40Nm of torque. It also comes with Apple Find My integration.
T1 ST Plus – Save up to $400
Velotric Discover 1 Plus Ebike
The Velotric Discover 1 Plus Ebike is a fantastic commuter bike that’s designed for comfort. (Plus, it’s kinda fun that it comes in five color choices.) If your commuting route is a bit more challenging, then the Discover 1 Plus might be the right fit for you. It features a rear light with braking high-beam, a 60 Lux front light, and double hydraulic disc brakes for extra safety. Plus, Velotric rigorously tests its frames 150,000 times under tough conditions for quality assurance.
This commuter e-bike that rides like a cruiser has a pedal assist range of 65 miles and throttle range of 58 miles on a 900W peak motor that generates 65 Nm of torque.
Discover 1 Plus – Save up to $550
Velotric Go 1 Ebike
Velotric’s Go 1 Ebike is small but mighty – it can carry up to 440 pounds comfortably. This ride has hydraulic suspension and a plush saddle, and it can be kitted out with a wide range of accessories, making it a versatile form of transport for everything from a fun day out to carting groceries across town.
It’s powered by Velotric’s proprietary Velopower H50 Drive System, which provides a range of up to 55 miles on pedal assist up to 25 mph (unlocked) with a peak 900W motor.
Get 3 accessories & unlock 30% off on selected accessories
*Not included in the early-bird Black Friday deal, this deal runs from November 8-28 only
Velotric Packer 1 Ebike
From kids to cargo, the Velotric Packer 1 Ebike was designed to haul it all! The Packer 1 features Velotric’s proprietary Velopower H75 Drive System, which provides a range of up to 52 miles on pedal assist up to 25 mph (unlocked) with a 750W motor.
It can carry up to 440 pounds and has a 176-pound rear cargo carry capacity, plus hydraulic suspension with 80 mm of travel for a smooth ride. If you’re running a child to school every day, this would be a fantastic choice. Be sure to check out all the great accessories.