OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees
The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.
It’s also the stuff of nightmares for OPEC+, for whom oil revenues are critical.
The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices.
It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?
By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no.
The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade.
The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future.
S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050.
OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India.
The medium-term outlook
As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.
“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.
“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”
Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry.
“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”
Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification.
“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.
Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”
Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said.
That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted.
“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.
In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.
“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.
In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.
It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
Mitsubishi is partnering with Ample and Yamoto Transports to deploy an innovative new battery swap network for electric cars in its Japanese home market — but it’s not just for electric cars. Mitsubishi Fuso commercial trucks are getting in on the action, too!
Despite a number of early EV adopters with an overdeveloped concept of ownership, battery swap technology has proven to be both extremely effective and extremely positive to the overall EV ownership experience. And when you see how simple it is to add hundreds of miles of driving in just 100 seconds — quicker, in many cases, than pumping a tank of liquid fuel into an ICE-powered car — you might come around, yourself.
That seems to be what Mitsubishi thinks, anyway, and they’re hoping they’ll be your go-to choice when it’s time to electrify your regional and last-mile commercial delivery fleet(s) by launching a multi-year pilot program to deploy more than 150 battery-swappable commercial electric vehicles and 14 modular battery swapping stations across Tokyo, where the company plans to showcase its “five minute charging” tech in full view of hundreds of commercial fleets and, crucially, the executives of the companies that own and manage them.
A truck like the Mitsubishi eCanter typically requires a full night of AC charging to top off its batteries, and at least an hour or two on DC charging in Japan, according to Fuso. This joint pilot by Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Fuso Trucks, and Ample aims to circumvent this issue of forced downtime with its swappable batteries, supporting vehicle uptime by delivering a full charge within minutes. The move is meant to encourage the transport industry’s EV shift while creating a depository of stored energy that can be deployed to the grid in the event of a natural disaster — something Mitsubishi in Japan has been working on for years.
Trucks like the eCanter already serve a number of roles throughout the global truck market, including municipal waste collection, regional delivery support, and more.
The pilot is backed by Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s “Technology Development Support Project for Promoting New Energy,” with local delivery operator Yamato Transport testing swappable EVs for delivery operations on both its eCanter light-duty trucks and Mitsubishi Minicab kei-class electric vans.
Electrek’s Take
Electrifying the commercial truck fleet is a key part of decarbonizing city truck fleets – not just here in the US, but around the world. I called the eCanter, “a great product for moving stuff around densely packed city streets,” and eliminating the corporate fear of EV charging in the wild just makes it an even better product for that purpose.
Here’s hoping we see more “right size” electric solutions like this one (and more battery swapping tech) in small towns and tight urban environments stateside somewhat sooner than later.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Mitsubishi, Fuso.
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After becoming the first European brand to offer fully electric versions of every model it sells — and at the same price as the ICE models — Opel is going even further, with a new, AWD electric SUV that should give American Jeep fans hope for a new electric Cherokee!
Now part of the Stellantis, rather than GM portfolio of brands, Rüsselsheim-based Opel showed off the first official pictures of its new Opel Grandland Electric AWD — the company’s first all-electric SUV to feature the “Blitz” performance emblem and all-wheel drive.
“Our top-of-the-range Grandland SUV is a milestone for Opel,” says Opel CEO Florian Huettl. “Customers already have a choice of battery-electric drive, plug-in hybrid and hybrid with 48-volt technology. We are now offering even more choice with the Grandland Electric AWD and thus ensuring that our customers can enjoy maximum efficiency and safety in diverse weather and road conditions, combined with plenty of driving fun.”
Stellantis gets it right in Europe
Opel says its new, AWD Grandland is its most aerodynamically efficient model yet, with a drag coefficient (Cd) of just 0.278. That efficiency, paired with similarly efficient electric motors and a 73 kWh li-ion NMC battery give the electric crossover a 501 km (311 mile) WLTP range, while a combined 325 hp and 375 lb-ft of torque should make for suitably spirited acceleration to go along with all that green cred.
Suspension and handling, too, are promised to deliver on what Opel claims is a “typical” Teutonic driving experience in the Grandland AWD:
Both driving pleasure and comfort are further emphasized by dampers with frequency selective damping technology. This unique technology comes as standard on the Grandland Electric AWD and incorporates a second hydraulic circuit in the damper chamber to mechanically adapt the damping force in relation to the frequency. Depending on the situation, road surface conditions and driving style, it enables different damping characteristics for comfortable gliding at high frequencies – i.e. with short impacts such as on cobblestones or a manhole cover – as well as for a sporty, ambitious driving style with more direct contact with the road at low frequencies. The Grandland reacts even more immediately and directly to any command from the driver and, as is typical for Opel, remains stable when braking, cornering and at high speeds on the Autobahn.
OPEL PRESS RELEASE
The Opel Grandland Electric AWD ships with four standard drive modes that include “normal,” eco, sport, and 4WD mode, which simulates locking axles and true 4×4 off-road performance. The ESP and traction control systems adopt specific settings to enhance grip in 4WD mode as well, and maximum power and torque are instantly available.
Electrek’s Take
As you maybe could tell by now, feeding European Stellantis EVs into an AI image generator and asking it to “make them into Jeeps” is one of my new favorite things to do. This new Opel is no different, and the resulting image (above) paired with the models’ stated specs give me hope that the next wave of Jeep EVs will do better than the Wagoneer S at attracting buyers. All they really need, I think, is the right name — and the right price, to be winners.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Opel.
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Like a 90s “gifted” kid that was supposed to be a lot of things, the electric Jeep Wagoneer S never really found its place — but with dealers discounting the Jeep brands forward-looking flagship by nearly $25,000, it might be time to give the go-fast Wagoneer S a second look.
SKIP THE STORY: get straight to the deals.
Whether we’re talking about Mercedes-Benz, Cerberus, Fiat, or even Enzo Ferrari, outsiders have labeled Jeep as a potentially premium brand that could, “if managed properly,” command luxury-level prices all over the globe. That hasn’t happened, and Stellantis is just the latest in a long line of companies to sink massive capital into the brand only to realize that people will not, in fact, spend Mercedes money on a Jeep.
That said, the Jeep Wagoneer S is not a bad car (and neither is its totally different, hideously massive, ICE-powered Wagoneer sibling, frankly). Built on the same Stellantis STLA Large vehicle platform that underpins the sporty Charger Daytona EVs, the confusingly-named Wagoneer S packs dual electric motors putting out almost 600 hp. That’s good enough to scoot the ‘ute 0 to 60 mph in a stomach-turning 3.5 seconds and enough, on paper, to convince Stellantis executives that they had developed a real, market-ready alternative to the Tesla Model Y.
With the wrong name and a sky-high starting price of $66,995 (not including the $1,795 destination fee), however, that demand didn’t materialize, leaving the Wagoneer S languishing on dealer lots across the country.
That could be about to change, however, thanks to big discounts on Wagoneer S being reported at CDJR dealers in several states, according to our friends at the Car Dealership Guy podcast.
- Jimmy Britt Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram in Georgia, has a Wagoneer S with an MSRP of $67,590 listed at $43,104 ($24,486 off)
- In Florida, Taverna Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Fiat has a $67,590 Wagoneer S slashed to $43,138 ($24,452 off)
- Chris Nikel Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram Fiat in Oklahoma has a Wagoneer S listed for $43,425 ($24,165 off)
“Stellantis bet big on electric versions of iconic American brands like Jeep and Dodge, but consumers aren’t buying the premise,” writes CDG’s Marcus Amick. “(Stellantis’ dealer body) is now stuck with expensive EVs that need huge discounts to move, eating into already thin margins while competitors focus on [more] profitable gas-powered vehicles.”
All of which is to say: if you’ve found yourself drawn to the Jeep Wagoneer S, but couldn’t quite stomach the $70,000+ window stickers, you might want to check in with your local Jeep dealer and see how you feel about it at a JCPenneys-like 30% off!
Jeep Wagoneer S gallery
SOURCES | IMAGES: Car Dealership Guy, CarScoops, and CarsDirect.
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