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UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka left the undefeated Rebels on Tuesday night over claims of unfulfilled verbal NIL promises from a UNLV assistant coach, a decision that illuminates the fragility of the current collegiate system and how talent is procured and retained.

Sluka’s agent, Marcus Cromartie, told ESPN that UNLV didn’t come through on a verbal offer of $100,000 from an assistant coach. The quarterback’s father, Bob Sluka, told ESPN that head coach Barry Odom later said in a phone conversation that the offer wasn’t valid because it didn’t come from him, but rather from offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who declined comment to ESPN.

UNLV said Wednesday in a statement that Sluka’s “representative made financial demands upon the University and its NIL collective in order to continue playing.”

“UNLV Athletics interpreted these demands as a violation of the NCAA pay-for-play rules, as well as Nevada state law,” the school said in its statement. “UNLV does not engage in such activity, nor does it respond to implied threats. UNLV has honored all previously agreed-upon scholarships for Matthew Sluka.

“UNLV has conducted its due diligence and will continue to operate its programs within the framework of NCAA rules and regulations, as well as Nevada state laws.”

UNLV’s collective did pay Sluka one $3,000 fee for an engagement he made this summer, according to Rob Sine, who runs Blueprint Sports, a company that manages the collective. Sine said Sluka’s agents first made contact with the collective in late August to discuss future opportunities to work together.

Sine said he wasn’t aware of any promises to pay Sluka $100,000 and that Sluka had not contacted the collective about missing payments as far as he knew.

The Friends of UNLV collective reiterated in a statement that there were “no formal NIL offers made during Mr. Sluka’s recruitment process,” and that the collective did not “agree to any NIL offers while he was part of the team, aside from a completed community engagement event over the summer.”

The decisions come at a compelling moment for UNLV, as the Rebels are 3-0 and ranked No. 23 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, marking the first time the program has been ranked in any major poll in history.

UNLV defeated Big 12 programs Houston and Kansas with Sluka at quarterback and hosts Fresno State on Saturday in its Mountain West Conference opener. The Rebels’ home game the following Friday night against Syracuse has become among the most anticipated in recent school history.

UNLV also is amid the process of deciding its conference future between the Pac-12 and Mountain West, a decision that looms large over the current structure of college athletics.

Because Marion’s offer to Sluka was verbal and never formalized, there are varying versions of what happened. Sources told ESPN that Sluka approached Odom about the money in recent days and practiced Monday with the Rebels, but then didn’t practice Tuesday. The senior transfer announced Tuesday on social media that he would not play for the Rebels again this season and that he planned to use his redshirt this year.

The only formal offer from the school, according to Cromartie, was an offer of $3,000 a month for four months. The only money Sluka has received from UNLV, per Cromartie, was $3,000 for moving expenses.

The tension point appears to center around the verbal offer. While reports emerged from UNLV about Sluka asking for more money, Sluka insists that all he was asking for is what the program verbally promised. With no contract required up front because of the vagaries of NIL rules and third parties technically in charge of giving athletes the deals, the ambiguity over the validity of verbal offers hangs over the enterprise of college athletics.

According to his father and Cromartie, at no time did Sluka ask for an adjustment to the initial deal that was promised. When Sluka reported to UNLV in the summer, he was told the money would be distributed on a payment plan. He was later told that payment would come after he enrolled in school and began classes, according to his father.

The school and collective did formally offer $3,000 per month for four months, according to Cromartie, which was $88,000 less than what Sluka and Cromartie were told verbally last winter.

The current system for paying college athletes — one in which schools can make financial offers to players during the recruiting process but can’t directly fulfill those promises — may soon be changing. As part of a pending antitrust lawsuit, the NCAA has agreed to allow its schools to pay players directly. If the settlement is approved in court, the new system has the potential to give both players and teams more security by allowing them to enter more direct contracts with one another.

After UNLV’s games began, Cromartie contacted Shannon Cottrell, the director of athlete engagements for the Friends of UNLV collective, and director of player development Hunkie Cooper.

“They keep deferring — ‘We don’t know. You have to wait,'” Bob Sluka said. “Then it was like, ‘We’re going to give him game checks.’ So we’re like, ‘OK, great.’ We did not ask for a single dollar [more]. At one point, we are out of pocket for him to be there, because his expenses to live there weren’t even being covered.”

Bob Sluka told ESPN that Marion and the agents from Equity Sports agreed to a verbal deal back in the winter, after a recruiting visit where they spent most of their time with Marion but also met with the entire coaching staff.

“We left there understanding that we were going to get a certain dollar amount for Matt to come there on the NIL deal, not a blowout number, but a reasonable, fair number,” Bob Sluka said, adding that Matthew later received more than 25 NIL offers from other schools, including Big Ten and SEC teams, that were “four, five times the amount of money we were willing to take from UNLV.”

After the money from UNLV’s verbal promise never materialized, Sluka decided to leave the team and take advantage of his redshirt opportunity.

NCAA redshirt rules allow players to retain a year of eligibility if they play four or fewer games in a season. Sluka, who played four seasons (2020-23) at FCS program Holy Cross before transferring to UNLV this past offseason, still has one more year of eligibility that he could use at another school next season.

NCAA rules do not allow players to play for two schools within the same season.

UNLV is 3-0 for the first time since 1984 and also received 53 total points in the latest Associated Press poll, just 16 points behind No. 25 Boise State. The Rebels, who upset Kansas on the road in Week 3, also began the season with a victory against Houston, making them 2-0 against Big 12 teams and raising hopes they could contend for a spot in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

Sluka has completed 21 of 48 passes for 318 yards and six touchdowns with one interception this season, his first with the Rebels. He also has rushed 39 times for 286 yards and a score.

In UNLV’s 23-20 upset victory at Kansas on Sept. 13, Sluka led the Rebels on an 18-play, 75-yard drive that ended with Kylin James scoring on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 1:51 left. Sluka rushed for 113 yards in the game.

After the victory, Bob Sluka said that Cromartie spoke with Cooper in the stadium tunnel about Sluka’s deal, and Cooper said to call him the following week. On Sept. 19, Cooper and Odom called Cromartie.

Bob Sluka said the call yielded the idea that Marion didn’t have authority to make that caliber of an offer. Bob Sluka said the family never heard from UNLV’s collective and is in a state of confusion about what happened.

“We have no idea what the hell happened,” Bob Sluka said. “No one can explain this. Why would you let your starting quarterback walk out of the building? We did not ask for a penny more than what was agreed upon [this winter].”

Sluka holds school records from his seasons at Holy Cross, including first in career pass efficiency (147.4), second in career rushing yards (3,583), second in career rushing touchdowns (38), fifth in career passing yards (5,916) and fifth in career passing touchdowns (59). He rushed for an NCAA Division I quarterback record 330 yards in a loss to Lafayette in 2023.

Holy Cross reached the FCS playoffs in 2021 and 2022 with Sluka as the starter. After a coaching change at Holy Cross — head coach Bob Chesney left to take over at James Madison — Sluka also moved on.

Sluka now plans to work out with a quarterback trainer this fall and enroll at a school in January with time to learn the system, something he wasn’t able to do because he was graduating from Holy Cross last spring.

With Sluka now out of the picture, UNLV figures to turn to either senior transfer Hajj-Malik Williams or senior Cameron Friel as its starting quarterback. UNLV went 9-5 last season and played for the Mountain West championship, but the quarterback who led that team to the program’s best season in nearly 40 years, Jayden Maiava, transferred to USC.

ESPN’s Dan Murphy and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Push the panic button: 12 Week 3 games, each with its own level of crisis

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Push the panic button: 12 Week 3 games, each with its own level of crisis

Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.

Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.

The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.

All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart


More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase

Hot seat panic

Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.

Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.

He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.

First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.

Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.

Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0


I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.

The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.

Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8

‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic

Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.

If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.

Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.

Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.

And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.

New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.

Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3


We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.

For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.

After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.

Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.

Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3


First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.

play

1:05

House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return

House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return

Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.

Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.

We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.

Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0


Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.

They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.

ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.

Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3

‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic

We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.

Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.

The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.

The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?

It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.

Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6


In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.

The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).

Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.

Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.

Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6


Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.

Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.

Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7

‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic

The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.

(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)

Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.

WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.

Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2


Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.

Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.

Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6


‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic

If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.

USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.

Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?

Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0


Week 3 chaos superfecta

We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.

What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.


Week 3 playlist

Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.

Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9

Early Saturday

No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)

Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1

No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.

Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3

Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)

Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9

Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.

Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5

Saturday afternoon

USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?

Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9

Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?

Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3

No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.

Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2

FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?

Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7

Saturday evening

Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.

Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6

No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.

Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1

Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.

Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1

Late Saturday

Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.

Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6


Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?

SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8

Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.

SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2

FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.

SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6

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Allmendinger races to first Cup pole in 10 years

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Allmendinger races to first Cup pole in 10 years

BRISTOL, Tenn. — AJ Allmendinger upstaged the NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway, capturing the pole for Saturday night’s first-round cutoff race on the 0.533-mile oval.

The Kaulig Racing driver qualified first for the first time in 10 years, turning a 15.117-second lap (126.930 mph) on Friday in his No. 16 Chevrolet. With his fifth career pole in a Cup race and first since August 2015 at Watkins Glen, the 43-year-old Allmendinger became the oldest driver to win a pole at Bristol since Mark Martin, who was 50 in 2009.

“To get a pole at Bristol, that’s pretty awesome,” said Allmendinger, whose previous pole on an oval was at Kansas in April 2012. “Hopefully, we can do that for 500 laps. I know it’s Friday night qualifying and doesn’t pay any points or money, but it’s small victories like this for our race team that’s continually trying to grow. Days like today are enjoyable and give me confidence because I feel like I can still do it. It proves I can be here.”

Ryan Blaney will start second after missing the pole by 0.003 seconds in his No. 12 Ford, but the Team Penske driver is in solid position to gain the 15 points needed to clinch a spot in the second round from his fourth front-row start this season.

“I think our race car is really good over the long haul and just looking forward to (Saturday) night,” Blaney said. “Overall proud of the effort and to be that close to the pole, it’s a good day.”

Teammate Austin Cindric qualified third, followed by Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson, who is aiming for his third consecutive victory at Bristol.

Cindric is ranked 12th in the standings and 11 points above the cutline heading into the 500-lap race that will eliminate four of 16 drivers from the playoffs.

“It’s the first box checked, but nothing is guaranteed from here,” Cindric said. “I feel like we’ve done our job for Friday. This sets us up well to try and continue to control our destiny for the end of the race.”

Playoff drivers rounded out the rest of the top 10 in qualifying with Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry and Christopher Bell.

The starting positions of the other playoff drivers were: Ross Chastain 13th, Tyler Reddick 14th, Alex Bowman 15th, Chase Elliott 16th, Joey Logano 22nd, Austin Dillon 23rd and Shane van Gisbergen 28th.

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Sources: ACC ref, irked by replay handling, quits

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Sources: ACC ref, irked by replay handling, quits

After an awkwardly handled replay late in the first half of last weekend’s game between UConn and Syracuse, a longtime ACC official has quit his post over frustration with the way the review was handled, sources told ESPN on Friday.

Gary Patterson, who served as the head referee for Saturday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Orange and has worked as an official with the ACC since 2002, abruptly terminated his contract with the conference after the game.

The ACC confirmed Patterson’s departure from the conference’s roster of officials Friday but said that adjustments to officiating crews have already been made and that there will be no disruption to league officiating. Patterson had been scheduled to referee Saturday’s game between Pitt and West Virginia.

The sequence that reportedly led to Patterson’s departure began with 1:02 remaining in the half and UConn leading 14-3. Syracuse opened a drive at the Huskies’ 25-yard line, and on first down, quarterback Steve Angeli dropped back to pass. His arm was hit as he threw, and the ball went forward about 8 yards, landing on the turf.

The officials immediately ruled the pass incomplete. Syracuse then snapped the ball again with 58 seconds left on the clock, though about 25 seconds of real time passed between plays. The second-down throw was nearly intercepted before two UConn players collided and the pass fell incomplete, bringing up a third-and-10 with 53 seconds to go.

A flag was thrown after the play, however, and Patterson could be seen talking on his headset to the ACC’s command center for nearly 90 seconds before announcing that “replay had buzzed in prior to the previous play.”

Sources who have reviewed numerous camera angles of the sequence said there was no physical indication by any official on the field that they had been buzzed by the replay booth before the second-down snap. An ACC spokesperson said that officials were buzzed to initiate the review but that the timing was not ideal for it to be a seamless replay. The conference has addressed the handling of this sequence internally, the spokesperson said.

Officials reviewed the first-down play to see whether Angeli had fumbled, negating the second-down play, before ultimately upholding the original call of an incomplete pass.

Syracuse and UConn officials were told the referee had simply “not heard” the initial request from the replay booth before the second-down snap.

ESPN rules expert Bill LeMonnier, who has decades of experience as an official, said the series of events was uncharacteristic of how a replay would normally be handled.

“Let’s say they’re right up at the line, the ball’s being snapped, and the buzzers go off,” LeMonnier said. “It’s the referee’s discretion to shut the play down vs. saying it’s too late. It’s supposed to be in the referee’s hands.”

LeMonnier also said a flag thrown after the second-down play, which was presumably due to a high hit on Angeli by a UConn defender, was ignored, despite rules saying a personal foul would be enforced even during a dead ball period.

“The mistakes were completely created by either the replay booth or the command center,” LeMonnier said. “It’s not the fault of the officials on the field.”

Every play is subject to review. When officials are buzzed to begin the process, they get on the headset with the replay booth in the stadium and the ACC command center and the review is initiated.

Two sources with knowledge of the situation said the directive came from the ACC command center.

One source said Patterson was upset at the ACC’s interference in forcing a replay after the next play had already occurred, instigating his resignation. Patterson did not respond to requests by ESPN for comment.

After the second-down incompletion was wiped out, Syracuse went 61 yards on its next seven plays and kicked a field goal as time expired in the half. The Orange went on to win the game 27-20 in overtime.

For select games this season, the ACC has allowed cameras and audio access to the review process, offering transparency into the discussions between on-field officials and replay officials at the command center. Last week’s game between UConn and Syracuse, however, was not among those with command center coverage.

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